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Well, the conference call transcript has a lot of detail in it that is beyond me. However, I've decided to focus on revenue generation. According to Mark Mey RIG made $748 million in drilling revenue with an average day rate of $367,000.
Earlier in the call J. Thigpen indicated average day rates would increase to $433,000 a 17% increase. So I would expect to see revenue around $882.5 next June. which should impact PE ratios. If not it's time to look at costs to see why and perhaps re-evaluate
Well, I gave the transcript a quick once-over and I didn't see any change in the guidance for the second half of 23. However, they did talk about increasing day rates over the next 12 months. and improving conditions (future operations) based on demand for energy and the supply of these platforms. They frequently speak of day rates going to 500K and beyond.
So, to me (I'm no expert) if day rates continue up and utilization rates increase, and debt is converted to stock (based on PPS). Revenue should go up proportionately.
" in the second quarter of 2023, our average day rate was approximately $363,000 per day versus $312,000 per day in the second quarter of 2022. And based on existing backlog by the second quarter of 2024, we expect it to approximate $433,000 per day."
I follow SLB/EQNR (and WTI/ Brent NS) as proxies for the industry. SLB beat on the bottom line but fell short on the top. They did however give upbeat guidance for the upcoming quarter. So That's what I look at when evaluating RIG.
Didn't catch the conference call. Yahoo finance usually prints a transcript I'll have to read that. I'd like to hear an upbeat projection going forward. I'd also like to hear someone question when or if they estimate a return to profitability.
P.S.
8/1/2023 8:18
Benchmark analyst Kurt Hallead reiterates Transocean (NYSE:RIG) with a Buy and maintains $12 price target.
Go figure.
Me too. I'd like to hear a little optimism going forward about earnings. Some mention of turning the corner.
Earnigs call at 9 am today. Hopefully good news going forward
me too. Hoping for a top and bottom-line beat. Something to take us over 10 bucks..
Gregory Lewis
BTIG
Buy
07/28/23 price target $12.00
Got an upgrade on 7/28 with a $12 price target
"Offshore Oil Stocks Flying As Investors Bet On A Deep Water Boom"
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/Offshore-Oil-Stocks-Flying-As-Investors-Bet-On-A-Deep-Water-Boom.html
"Stocks of offshore oil and gas drillers and producers have gone on a tear after recent contracts broke records, reversing their seven-year downturn that reached its nadir during the Covid-19 pandemic. Rising global petroleum demand, coupled with increasing deepwater exploration and drilling, has been keeping offshore contractors really busy.
Leading with impressive gains is deepwater drilling specialist, Transocean Ltd. (NYSE:RIG), whose stock has gained 99.1% in the year-to-date. RIG stock jumped nearly 10% over the past week after the company reported a three-year, $518 million contract to deploy one of its drillships in the Gulf of Mexico, the latest in a series of large transactions announced in recent months. The company has revealed that its aggregate incremental backlog associated with the latest contracts totals ~$1.2, bringing its total backlog to $9.2B. Meanwhile, rig rates have shot up to $480,000 a day, a 50%Y/Y increase and about triple the downturn’s lows.
"Last month, Norway’s government submitted to Parliament plans to open a large area to deep sea mining as it seeks to access and extract critical minerals from the seabed.
“We need minerals to succeed in the green transition. Currently, the resources are controlled by a few countries, which makes us vulnerable,” Norway’s Minister of Petroleum and Energy, Terje Aasland said."
https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/UN-Fails-To-Reach-Agreement-On-Deep-Sea-Mining-Regulation.html
"Oil Prices Climb To Multi-Month High As Market Eyes Tightening"
https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Oil-Prices-Climb-To-Multi-Month-High-As-Market-Eyes-Tightening.html
"NASA's Solid-State Battery Breakthrough Could Transform Air Travel"
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/NASAs-Solid-State-Battery-Breakthrough-Could-Transform-Air-Travel.html
NASA's Solid-State Battery Breakthrough Could Transform Air Travel"
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/NASAs-Solid-State-Battery-Breakthrough-Could-Transform-Air-Travel.html
This quarter’s report includes the following updates:
Seventh Generation Ultra-Deepwater Drillship (Deepwater Invictus, Deepwater Thalassa, or
Deepwater Proteus) – Awarded a 1,080-day contract in Mexico at a rate of $480,000.
Transocean Equinox – Awarded a five-well contract, plus a one-well option in Australia at a rate of
$455,000.
Transocean Equinox – Awarded a sixteen-well contract in Australia at a rate of $485,000, plus 21
one-well options at rates between $485,000 and $540,000.
Transocean Endurance – Awarded a two-well contract in Norway at a rate of $385,000.
Transocean Barents – Awarded a one-well contract in Lebanon at a rate of $365,000, plus 3 onewell options at rates that may vary between $350,000 and $390,000.
Transocean Encourage – Customer exercised six one-well options in Norway at a current rate of
$464,000.
Transocean Norge – Customer exercised a one-well option in Norway at a current rate of $365,000
and 3 one-well options at a current rate of $420,000.
Transocean Barents – Customer exercised a one-well option in the East Mediterranean Sea at a rate
of $370,000.
The aggregate incremental backlog associated with these fixtures is approximately $1.2 billion. As of July19, 2023, the company’s total backlog is approximately $9.2 billion. Assuming all contract options are exercised, the potential incremental backlog associated with the contract options is approximately $480 million to $500 million.
we will get earnings at the end of the month. Hopefully a top and bottom beat
DJ Transocean Deal Shows Rate and Term Possible in Tightening Market -- Market Talk
9:13 AM ET 7/18/23 | Dow Jones
0913 ET - The world's largest offshore oil driller Transocean says it's made a three-year deal with an "independent operator" to do work in the Gulf of Mexico offshore Mexico for $518M, and will begin as early as 4Q 2025. "While some investors have been anticipating that the drillers could trade rate for term in order to fill their backlogs, this contract points to a sufficiently tight market for high spec assets for the Drillers to secure both rate and term," says Citi's Scott Gruber in a note. "For Transocean specifically, the ability to build long dated backlog at leading edge dayrates further improves their deleveraging prospects." Transocean shares jump 3.7% pre-market. (dan.molinski@wsj.com)
Barcharts opinion: Current direction = top 1% (strongest)
"“This award is especially encouraging on numerous fronts,” said Chief Executive Officer Jeremy Thigpen. “The fact that our customers are securing rigs well in advance of their programs and committing to long-term contracts clearly demonstrates the tightness of the market. Additionally, our ability to designate the specific rig closer to the commencement of the program provides us with increased flexibility to optimize the utilization of our high-specification fleet of ultra-deepwater drillships.”
$10.00/share!
It would be nice to get June numbers, but we wait on that. If June is strong, we may get a favorable result in the second quarter
"Oil Demand Jumped By 3 Million Bpd In May To Near-Record Levels"
https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Oil-Demand-Jumped-By-3-Million-Bpd-In-May-To-Near-Record-Levels.html
"U.S. Shale Challenges OPEC With Record Production In 2023"
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/US-Shale-Challenges-OPEC-With-Record-Production-In-2023.html
"Oil Prices Jump As Libya’s Largest Oilfield Goes Offline"
https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Oil-Prices-Jump-As-Libyas-Largest-Oilfield-Goes-Offline.html
"Oil Prices Jump As Libya’s Largest Oilfield Goes Offline"
https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Oil-Prices-Jump-As-Libyas-Largest-Oilfield-Goes-Offline.html
Tuesday, July 11, 2023
Oil prices have marginally moved beyond the $72-77 per barrel range for Brent and $67-72 per barrel for WTI, and there is a growing sense that the market is starting to feel Saudi Arabia’s production cuts and Russia’s export curbs. Hedge fund net positioning in the ICE Brent contract went up by the equivalent of 25 MMbbls last week, the largest week-on-week build in two months, pointing at a potential short-term pricing upside.
UAE Refuses to Commit to Voluntary Cuts. As Saudi Arabia extended its 1 million b/d production cut into August and is widely expected to do the same into September, the United Arab Emirates announced it would not join its OPEC peer and that Riyadh’s cuts are enough to balance markets.
Mexican Oil Disaster Hard to Contain. Mexico’s national oil company Pemex estimates that the fire that broke out at its Nohoch-A platform and spread to the strategic Cantarell compression complex - causing the death of three people in the process - has led to the loss of 700,000 barrels of crude oil production so far.
US-EU Minerals Pact Coming By End-2023. According to senior US officials, a deal between the United States and the European Union to allow critical minerals mined or processed in Europe, including lithium and graphite, to be compatible with US tax breaks will be signed by end-2023.
Norway Lauds Largest Condensate Find in Years. Norwegian upstream firm DNO (OSL:DNO) announced a major gas and condensate discovery at its Carmen prospect in the Norwegian Continental shelf, the largest condensate find in decades with 120-230 mmboe of reserves.
Iran Accuses US of Shielding Fuel Smugglers. Less than a week has passed since Iran tried to intercept a US-bound tanker chartered by Chevron (NYSE:CVX), Tehran now accused the US Navy of defending fuel smuggling in the Gulf as another tanker was seized despite US aircraft interference.
HRW Attacks Total’s Uganda Project. Human Rights Watch claimed that the planned East African Crude Oil Pipeline led by TotalEnergies (NYSE:TTE) will devastate thousands of lives of people that have received inadequate compensation for their land, adding to the overall pressure on Uganda’s upstream projects.
Kuwait to Speed Up Development of Disputed Field. As Kuwait and Saudi Arabia move closer to jointly developing the Durra gas field in the Gulf, Kuwait’s Oil Minister Saad al Barrak called on Iranian authorities to demarcate their maritime borders before claiming joint ownership of the asset.
Fukushima Water Release Triggers IAEA. Japan’s plan to release treated radioactive water from its Fukushima nuclear plant has kept the IAEA on its toes as South Korea criticized the UN body’s findings and China threatened legal action if the plans moved ahead as currently planned.
Venezuela’s Opposition Wants to Redraw Export Map. Venezuela’s opposition is now suggesting that the Latin American country should redirect 200,000 b/d of its exports to a selected trustee to pay a group of creditors, as Caracas fights tooth and nail to retain Citgo as its key asset.
Satisfying No One, IMO Revised Its Emissions Strategy. As the International Maritime Organization revised its greenhouse gas emissions strategy and adopted a 2050 net zero target after 5 years of protracted negotiations, with developing nations voicing their dissatisfaction over potential fines if countries fail to deliver.
South Sudan Postpones Oil Expansion. As South Sudan’s oil industry struggles to bounce back from the ongoing war in Sudan, the country has postponed its long-term production growth of 230,000 b/d by at least two years to 2026, yet oil field flooding and lack of investment remain structural shortfalls.
Falling Rhine Levels Scare Central Europe. Falling water levels on the Rhine River in Germany are increasing freight costs across Germany and increasing the likelihood of supply shortages as levels at the Kaub chokepoint stand at 105 cm currently and are expected to fall below 1 m by the end of this week, allowing for only half-loaded cargoes.
Iron Ore Lives Through Worst Day of 2023. Depressed by weak Chinese domestic demand and steel output curbs, the two key Asian iron ore futures in Dalian and Singapore recorded their worst day in 2023 so far on Monday, falling by almost 4% on the day to $109 per metric tonne.
Tom Kool
Editor, Oilprice.com
KeyBanc Adjusts Livent's Price Target to $35 From $32, Keeps Overweight Rating
MT NEWSWIRES
09:30 AM EDT, 07/11/2023 (MT Newswires) -- Livent (LTHM.NaE) has an average rating of outperform and price targets ranging from $25 to $45, according to analysts polled by Capital IQ.
"Global Investment In Critical Minerals Is Soaring"
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Global-Investment-In-Critical-Minerals-Is-Soaring.html
"MIT’s Groundbreaking Discovery In The Intriguing World Of Superconductivity"
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/MITs-Groundbreaking-Discovery-In-The-Intriguing-World-Of-Superconductivity.html
Does anyone know anything about Mitsubishi's Material division and LTSC or HTSC. High and Low temp superconductive wire
Morgan Stanley Reiterates Equal-Weight on Transocean, Maintains $8 Price Target
BENZINGA
10:12 AM ET Jul-06-2023
Morgan Stanley analyst Connor Lynagh reiterates Transocean (NYSE:RIG) with a Equal-Weight and maintains $8 price target.
So there are 2 upgrades 1 to $8 and 1 to $10. Another at CITI for $9.5
"Why Are China And America Fighting Over This Unknown Mineral?"
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Why-Are-China-And-America-Fighting-Over-This-Unknown-Mineral.html
"China's Export Controls On Rare Earth Metals "Is Just The Beginning"
https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Chinas-Export-Controls-On-Rare-Earth-Metals-Is-Just-The-Beginning.html
"Why Transocean (RIG) Stock Is Trading Higher Today
BENZINGA
8:54 AM ET 07/05/2023
Transocean Ltd (NYSE:RIG) shares are trading higher Wednesday following positive analyst coverage from Citigroup. The company also announced that $172 million in options have been exercised.
What Happened: Citigroup analyst Scott Gruber upgraded Transocean from a Neutral rating to a Buy rating and raised the price target from $6.50 to $9.50.
The upgrade comes after the stock rallied more than 50% year-to-date and more than 12% over the past week.
Last week, Transocean announced that it received a $184 million award for harsh environment semisubmersible. The new award is expected to commence in the first quarter of 2025.
On Wednesday, Transocean also announced that six one-well options have been exercised for the harsh environment submersible, which is estimated to contribute approximately $172 million in backlog. The work is expected to commence as a direct continuation of the current term and now extends through February 2026.
Transocean is an international provider of offshore contract drilling services for oil and gas wells."
"OMV preparing to kick off drilling ops with Transocean rig"
https://www.offshore-energy.biz/omv-preparing-to-kick-off-drilling-ops-with-transocean-rig/
"Norway Approves $18.5 Billion Investment In Oil And Gas Projects"
"The 19 projects approved today include new developments, additional development of producing oil and gas fields, and investments to increase resource recovery in producing fields, the Norwegian Ministry of Petroleum and Energy said. The projects are being led by Aker BP, Equinor, Wintershall Dea, and OMV"
https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Norway-Approves-185-Billion-Investment-In-Oil-And-Gas-Projects.html
"The Rare Metal Keeping Xi and Biden Up At Night"
https://oilprice.com/Alternative-Energy/Renewable-Energy/The-Rare-Metal-Keeping-Xi-and-Biden-Up-At-Night.html
Benzinga's 'Stock Whisper' Index: 5 Stocks Investors Are Secretly Monitoring But Not Talking About Yet
BENZINGA
10:28 AM ET 06/23/2023
Investors are on the hunt for undervalued, underfollowed and emerging stocks, and retail traders have countless methods at their disposal to uncover new information.
For some, this may be overwhelming.
Benzinga's Stock Whisper Index uses a combination of proprietary data and pattern recognition to showcase five stocks each week that are just under the surface and warrant attention.
The index layers editorial commentary to help make sense of why these stocks should be of interest and whether investors and casual readers should watch them.
Here is a look at the Benzinga Stock Whisper Index for the week of June 23, 2023.
Marathon Digital Holdings Inc (NASDAQ:MARA): The cryptocurrency mining company saw shares jump this week, likely related to a surge in the price for Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) and Ethereum (CRYPTO: ETH). Bitcoin crossed the $30,000 mark for the first time in months.
The stock saw increased interest from Benzinga readers as it is often linked to the cryptocurrency sector. Shares of Marathon Digital are up 28% in the last month and up over 200% year-to-date. Marathon also has a reported 26% of its float short, which could make the stock a short squeeze target for investors.
Check out the most recent reports here:
"Cesium Wars: Why Are China and North America Fighting Over This Rare Metal?"
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Cesium-Wars-Why-Are-China-and-North-America-Fighting-Over-This-Rare-Metal.html
"good luck"
Courtesy of Marco form Tropojë
"Why 2 Sofi Analysts Are Dropping Their Bullish Stances: Elevated Interest Rates A Possible 'Incremental Headwind'
BENZINGA
11:40 AM ET Jun-16-2023
Shares of SoFi Technologies Inc (NASDAQ:SOFI) remained under pressure in early trading on Friday, after ending the previous session in the red, following a downgrade by Oppenheimer analysts.
Piper Sandler On SoFi Technologies
Analyst Kevin Barker downgraded the rating for SoFi Technologies from Overweight to Neutral, while raising the price target from $6.50 to $8.
The stock added 107% year to date, "compared to consumer lending peers +15% on average and a basket of fintech stocks down ~10%," Barker wrote in the downgrade note.
Some outperformance may have been warranted in case there was a "significant decline in interest rates driving better margins and more attractive lending opportunities (i.e. student loans)," the analyst said.
He added that rates have risen in the past two months, "which will be an incremental headwind in the near-term, and we are increasingly concerned rates could remain higher for longer due to persistent inflation."
Check out other analyst stock ratings.
BofA Securities On SoFi Technologies
Analyst Mihir Bhatia downgraded the rating for SoFi Technologies from Buy to Neutral, while raising the price target from $9.50 to $10.
"SoFi Technologies (SOFI) shares are up 100% over the past month vs. a 7% increase in the S&P 500, mainly because the debt deal brought certainty that the Federal Student Loan payment moratorium would end in September," Bhatia wrote in another downgrade note.
"While we agree the payment moratorium expiry is a positive, we now see the positive fundamental aspects of the story as largely priced in," the analyst said. "We also note that SOFI's 2023 outlook already assumes the moratorium would expire and we do not expect a major earnings revision cycle," he added."
restricted stock sales they may have just become available to sell. Who knows for sure?