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That’s an opinion stated in the article by the author. There has been nothing from the company that says data will be out in April. The only thing they have said is Q2
Murocman
Only thing I can think of is:
1. They want something they can have full control over, and a topical formulation might have broader appeal and maybe be available OTC?
It does seem very odd and quite presumptuous unless they know the results of the phase III, in which case they are obligated to report them.
It sure has the appearance of the “cart being in front of the horse”
Murocman
Based on the conference PR, it is not at all clear to me that phase III results will be released. But hopefully we get enough of a “broadcast tease” with some specifics to generate some excitement.
GLTA,
Murocman
So my synopsis of all that has been posted is that Genocea and their tech could be a really big deal and we’ll get a leak on the 11th as to how compelling it is.
I also get the sense that in order to be a huge catalyst, the data needs to be overwhelmingly positive since it’s still very early in the development cycle.
Is that a fair assessment?
Murocman
Yep! They need a partner with a chunk of upfront cash or they’re going to need to do a capital raise very soon.
Murocman
And therein lies the rub. The fact that it has been 8+ years and they can’t attract somebody to put up $25 million is a problem.
Compelling investments attract capital.
Others go 8+ years and are still talking about how compelling an investment they are.
Murocman
Sorry for the poor grammar. That’s what I get for typing on my phone.
Should have been:
“sell.”
“Somebody always knows”
“Continues if no news”
Murocman
Maybe but Niocorp is a long way from having any commodities to sell, I’d think it more likely that something is going on that will be made public soon.
Someone always knows what going on before everyone else does. That’s why the say that volume precedes price.
We’ll see if it continues today if there is now news.
GLTA,
Murocman
They are getting a cash payment of almost 1/2 their market cap. You’d think that would be worth maybe a buck on the share price.
Timing sucks though with the overall market on edge about the Fed and otherwise looking like it might go into the crapper.
GLTA,
Murocman
It should be a piece of cake to raise $25m to start the mine. This is not a lot of money in the business world.
If this mine was the incredible value that has been touted on this board, there are many deep pocketed individuals here in Nebraska that would have jumped at financing this project.
Yet it hasn’t happened all the while the lack of US Rare earth production has been all the rage the last few years. All there has been is a never ending resource estimate, that has obviously not impressed anyone or group enough to offer financing.
There is something not right here.
I hope this investment works out for those that have been here so long. I was in early and have been out for awhile. I follow as an interested Nebraskan and because my company sells analysis equipment to the mining industry.
The problem for this company is that capital has been cheap and relatively easy for the last several years and this company has failed to take advantage.
The environment is now changing I am much less convinced this project will get off the ground anytime soon. Good luck to all with your investments.
Murocman
Good bus drivers arrive at their destinations on time and efficiently. Bad bus driver’s get lost and never get financing.
Won’t be tomorrow. U.S markets are closed for MLK Day
Murocman
Is it a valid assumption that if the ALS access act passes in Congress, Brainstorm will benefit?
Put another way, how much can the FDA or some other gov agency get involved and muck things up?
Murocman
Needs some news to sustain it.
Murocman
Data due next week.
GLTA,
Murocman
Also needs specific and solid bio marker data to be published
Murocman
Now saying Phase III Interim Celiac results Q2 2022. Looks to be dead money and probably a chance to accumulate for at least a few more months
Murocman
Thanks much for the DD Chico!
As you said, it depends on how well the stock is received and perceived.
Also to what degree they have commercial success with the products and technology described below.
It certainly sounds exciting and promising.
Murocman
Market cap is already almost $500M. Might limit upside unless they start producing a large revenue stream ($100M +)
GLTA,
Murocman
Don’t think there will be any data until sometime after enrollment is complete.
Murocman
I am surprised this has not gotten more traction and visibility after releasing good trial data.
The Type 1 diabetes market is huge.
Any catalysts in the near term to help out?
Murocman
Trial completion date is end of this month. It normally takes 60-90 days to analyze the data and publish results.
I don’t think you will see anything as far as news until end of this year or early 2022.
Murocman
Likely because they are woefully behind on their financial filings.
Murocman
So I noticed on the latest slide deck that they say phase 2 SBS results in Q4 21 and the right after have listed American Society of Gastroenterology Conference 2021 and the initiate Phase 3 for SBS.
That conference is the 21-24th of this month. Maybe we get results then? Although I would have expected a press release saying they’re presenting and that hasn’t happened yet.
Murocman
Almost average daily volume in the first hour of trading today.
Could be the start of something good?
Murocman
If this clears the $2.45-2.50 level, it looks like $3 is the next line of resistance
Murocman
Will this be a potential catalyst? While great information and potentially providing a path to optimize MOA’s, I’m not sure if it moves the needle much?
Murocman
I’m guessing the price reacted negatively because they didn’t publish any bio marker data.
They did this last time as well. The top line was great but didn’t look as good when the bio marker details got published, which is why the price tanked.
You would think management might have learned from that experience but it appears not.
GLTA,
Murocman
Sorry RENGENXBIO.
Murocman
Regent Bio just released theIr AMD Phase II data (partnered with CLSD on this) and the stock is down AH. The reaction looks “meh” at best so far. Conference call in 40 minutes.
Murocman
Here’s hoping for good data AH. The science looks strong.
Murocman
Thanks Mcsharkey. My frustration was not meant to be directed at you but more so at the company.
They have some promising molecules and technology in a tough space but the progress seems to be excruciatingly slow.
The fact that it took a formal ‘strategic review’ to figure out the best bang for the buck is to focus on 2nd rather than 3rd line Pancan treatment does not inspire confidence as to the company’s market savvy. Hopefully the science and data continue to be compelling.
Murocman
Looks like the high 7’s are even better! Man somebody took the air out of this balloon today.
Murocman
I don’t see anything in their last corporate presentation about Sarcoma data by June 30th. In fact it says enrollment won’t be complete until 1st Half 2022 as well as a Pancreatic cancer data update H1 2022.
It doesn’t look like much going on until then.
GLTA,
Murocman
If it can clear $6.20, looks like $8 area is the next resistance.
Murocman
I’ll give it a go and see what I get!
Murocman
And therein lies the problem. He doesn’t see this as a legitimate investment (at least not so far).
The interesting thing to me is that it isn’t just any old mine. You would think rare earth metals would be different, especially since this would literally be a backyard investment.
Makes you wonder and shake your head.
GLTA,
Murocman
An observation and a question for the board.
Background: I have lived in Omaha from ‘90-94 and now since 2003 after retiring from the USAF. As a transplanted Nebraskan, I would love to see this mine get built. I have owned shares in the past but don’t currently.
As you know and has been pointed out here, I happen to live in the same town as Warren Buffett. He obviously has a track record of spotting very compelling investments and snapping them up to include local businesses. He owns Nebraska Furniture Mart, Borsheim’s Jewelry, and the Omaha Stormchasers (AAA baseball) to name a few. He could finance this mine with the money in his couch cushions, yet he hasn’t.
So the question is why if the potential return here is so great
This would seemingly be an investment totally in Berkshire Hathaway’s wheelhouse, yet nothing even close to resembling interest for the last five years plus, despite a lot of publicity from not only the company but the state as well.
This is what makes me wonder if this mine will get built.
GLTA,
Murocman
And who funds the government. THE PEOPLE AND CORPORATIONS through taxes!
And if the government decides not to pay for something or underpays, companies raise prices elsewhere.
This country’s debt burden is absolutely awful and with the majority of it being held by foreign interests, wiping the slate clean is not an option. These chickens will come home to roost at some point and it’s going to be incredibly ugly.
Yeah this is pretty strange. It’s almost like someone knows this got approval but the PR hasn’t hit the market yet.
Haven’t seen run like this so close too PDUFA with this kind of volume before.
Murocman