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DC,
The only thing out there that could contradict what you're thinking is from an interview the CEO did in Dec 09:
Actually, it was HP himself who suggested in December 2009 that the topline results could come out 4-6 weeks after event # 725. The most optimistic view would mean we see results this week. A more conservative view would have us learning the results around Feb. 12th...He also said in a follow up that this prediction of his was merely an estimate and that he would only confirm that the results would come out in Q1, 2010. This means we may see nothing until March 31st. Take your pick, my guess is we see results Monday morning, February 15, premarket.
My guess is that four-six weeks is probably a bit overly optimistic, and 6-8 is more likely, which would fall right in your window.
I'd say the week of Pres. day would be a good time to start accumulating.
GLTA,
Murocman
Anticipation of news from the CEO's trip to Asia IMO. I was in this stock last time the CEO went to the Far East and it behaved the similarily.
If he brings back some solid news (production start, new JV, etc.) the stock could easily pop to the $0.80's. If any of those things had an immediate and positive impact on earnings, the gains would likely hold. If something out in the future, it will likley pop and retrace, so guard your gains.
Should be interesting next week,
GLTA,
Murocman
Stock setting up to run nicely if we get some follow through on the expected news of product placements and rollouts around mid-month. Am thinking this could run to $0.10. Anyone else have any thoughts?
TIA,
Murocman
Approximately $34.3M of trading volume in this stock....
Since the volume exploded into the double digit millions of shares last week, there would have been approximately $34.325M in money flow in this stock if you take the median price in the trading range each day.
That is a whole lot of money moving for such a tiny little company. Good news ahead IMO and stock will likely rocket. GLTA!
Murocman
NVLT.OB has had a powerful breakout over the last coouple of days.
The stock has traded around 4M shares (float 44M) over the past two days (avg vol is typically around 300k over a two day period) and rose from $0.78 to close at $1.18 today, one penny off of its high for the day. The previous high was $1 so it's a little extended, but it looks like the momentum could continue based on the volume.
There hasn't been any news from the company itself which makes the action even more compelling IMO. If the company does put out news, this thing may really takeoff.
Do Your Own DD. GLTA,
Murocman
CABL: Anybody have any thoughts/track CABL? They will announce earnings on Tuesday. Looks to be a potentially undervalued play on the growing demand for cable and broadband access in China.
I don't have a position but, am considering taking one going into earnings.
TIA,
Murocman
Should see an earnings PR tomorrow if they follow suit from the last quarter. In looking at the dates on Pinksheets.com, it looks like they have been getting more timely with their filings and are current, with this last one being on time per SEC rules.
They PR'ed back in Jan that they were looking to move to a higher exchange, so maybe this is an indication they are getting close?
GLTA,
Murocman
I agree that the 10Q was excellent as well. Most of the stocks in the BB universe are startup in nature, and usually a long ways from being profitable. The fact that this company showed an operating profit (breakeven on a per share basis) for the quarter is an excellent development no matter how you look at it IMO.
If they can keep up the momentum and PR some significant new business, I think this stock can gain some significant momentum, and maybe move to the $0.03-0.05 price range in the very near term.
Finally, it shold be noted that the 10Q was not due until the end of the week. The fact that the company put it out today confirms for me that more good news is on the way this week.
GLTA,
Murocman
Nuvo Research's Pennsaid FDA APPROVED!
http://www.newswire.ca/en/releases/archive/November2009/05/c6086.html
(Tickers: NRIFF.PK & NRI.TO)
GLTA,
Murocman
Outstanding post EastCoast!
I personally think the price action can be explained by "once burned-twice shy".
I think a lot of folks that are interest in buying, but not current holders are waiting to see the approval come through given recent past history.
Based on my DD, I do expect approval next week, The question is how high the stock will go in the short-term and how long the momentum will last?
I'm personally looking for $0.70-1.00 within a few days of approval, probably followed by a pullback.
GLTU,
Murocman
MSBT worth a look. Up on very heavy volume today. Has a filtering system to treat Sepsis and trial in Europe are ongoing. They hope to submit for CE Mark (European equivalent of 510K) approval by the end of the year and gain approval next year. Market is in the billions.
More info to be found at the following link:
http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/492120-jospeh-krueger/31738-medasorb-investors-need-to-absorb-the-potential
Took a position today.
GLTA,
Murocman
From a technical point of view, the next resistance levels are $1.27-1.37 and then $4-4.34.
If the stock gets past $1.37 on good volume in the coming days, I think we could see the uptrend continue as we move towards earnings and maybe see the $2-2.50 level?
GLTA,
Murocman
China Agribusiness Report Q4 2009
In BMI's China Agribusiness Report for Q4 2009 we look at how the country's dairy industry is
recovering after the devastating melamine adulteration scandal of 2008. Demand for dairy products was
hit hard in the final quarter of 2008 following the hospitalisation of hundreds of thousands of infants from
drinking adulterated milk. At the beginning of this year heavy sentences, including two death penalties,
were handed down to those convicted of involvement in the scandal. The chairwoman of Sanlu Group,
the company considered to have been most seriously at fault, was given a life sentence. Shortly after that,
in February, Sanlu declared bankruptcy.
Sanlu, however, was not the only company to be hit by the scandal. The release of the major dairy
companies' 2008 reports in the second quarter of 2009 showed that healthy profits of the previous years
had been turned into large losses by the year's events. Market leader Mengniu, which made a profit of
CNY935.8mn in 2007, reported losses of CNY948.6mn. The second biggest player, Yili, did even worse,
revealing losses of CNY1.69bn. The only major player to stay in the black was Sanyuan Food which
made a profit of CNY40.76mn. Sanyuan was also the only major dairy company whose products were not
found to contain melamine.
Sanyuan has made the most of its rivals' difficulties. In March, the company snapped up bankrupt Sanlu's
core assets for CNY616.5mn. The other major players were banned from taking part in the bidding for the
assets owing to their involvement in the scandal. In April, Sanyuan rolled out new brands of powdered
milk produced at what were previously Sanlu's factory. The products were well received with strong sales
in May.
The other dairy companies, despite the disgrace of 2008, also reported improving sales in the first half of
2009. Yili reported profits in Q108 of double the level seen in Q108. In April. the company said that
demand for dairy products had recovered to 90% of its pre-scandal level. Mengniu said that demand for
its products had fully recovered in the North of the country but was still at only around 60% of prescandal
level in the South.
Assuming that the new measures put in place to ensure food safety are effective and there are no new
fears over the safety of dairy products, then we expect demand to resume its upward trend. Rising
incomes will allow Chinese consumers to spend more on dairy products. We expect demand for both
staples such as fluid milk and more exotic foods such as imported European cheeses to increase.
Elsewhere, grain production in 2009 looks set to be well above last year's level. Early estimates show
increases in production of rice, wheat and corn. Production of key staples wheat and rice has been
increasing steadily over the last few years after falling rapidly in the first half of the decade. The
government has been making an effort to stem the fall in land area planted to grain crops with some
success. Despite this, in the longer term beyond our forecast period, we believe that pressure on land for
industrial and residential uses will once again see the area given to grain fall.
I's say $4-5 on approval. It may not hold but think it could easily spike that high.
GLTA,
Murocman
I hope you're right.
GLTU,
Murocman
CSGH due to post their 10Q on Thursday. Thinking of taking a position tomorrow based on their excellent history and prospects. Anybody have any thoughts?
Tks,
Murocman
I don't think Intel's news has the least effect on this stock. The BB stocks march to their own tune (mostly news driven) and are largely unaffected by what's happening in the overall market, which is both good and bad.
Murocman
I thought the news today was positive. While it would have been nice if they could have reported on the data, it's good to see they are keeping the public informed. I don't think they would be going to all of this trouble if the data wasn't good. The fact that they also have a journal article coming out in the next few days is also a positive.
A good time to accumulate shares for a possible pop the middle of the month IMO.
GLTA,
Murocman
This stock could see some positive momentum this week, if the company delivers on it's intention to provide an update on its phase IIb trial.
May take a position in anticipation.
GLTA,
Murocman
Guinness Atkinson Global Energy Fund added 3.7M shares as of filing on 9/8/09:
http://www.mffais.com/cptc.ob
Additionally since 9/11/09 almost 50M shares have been traded. It will be interesting to see in the coming days which other funds and institutions have been buying as well.
Follow the money and prosper!
GLTA,
Murocman
Some DD on MYRX alerted by Chartinator yesterday:
Myriad Pharmaceuticals, Inc. is focused on discovering, developing, and commercializing novel small molecule drugs for the treatment of diseases with high unmet need, including cancer and HIV infection. Our pipeline includes clinical and pre-clinical product candidates with distinct mechanisms of action and novel chemical structures that have the potential to be first-in-class and/or best-in-class therapeutics.
Our product candidates in clinical development include:
•Azixa™ (MPC-6827) for glioblastoma multiforme and metastatic melanoma
•MPC-4326 for HIV-1 infection
•MPC-3100 for cancer
Upcoming Events:
Upcoming Events:
•Rodman & Renshaw 11th Annual Healthcare Conference
September 11, 2009
New York, NY
•Interscience Conference on Antimicrobial Agents and Chemotherapy (ICAAC)
Sep 12–15, 2009
Announcements
Myriad Pharmaceuticals Announces Two Abstracts Selected for Presentation At 2009 ICAAC Annual Meeting
Link to all the above:
http://www.myriadpharma.com/
The stock went up almost 5% yesterday on 3x average volume. May be due to the presentation at the investment conference AND the presentation on their HIV drug at ICAAC.
The company issued a PR via the Globe Newswire on 10 Sep. Excerpt is below:
Myriad Pharmaceuticals Inc. (Nasdaq:MYRX) today announced that two abstracts have been selected for presentation at the Interscience Conference on Antimicrobial Agents and Chemotherapy (ICAAC) Annual Meeting, being held September 12-15, 2009, in San Francisco, CA.. Presentations will disclose new findings about MPC-4326, a Myriad Pharmaceuticals' drug candidate being developed as an oral treatment of human immunodeficiency virus 1 (HIV-1) infection.
The abstracts can be accessed through the ICAAC website http://www.icaac.org/. Abstract titles are provided below, however, please note that according to ICAAC policy, all data are embargoed until the presentation time. Once presented, all posters and presentations will be available as PDF files on the Myriad Pharmaceuticals' website (http://www.myriadpharma.com/).
If the data presented is postive, this stock may move higher in the near-term and present a good trading opportunity. Do your own DD, but this looks like it could be a good play based on what I've found so far.
GLTA,
Murocman
San Francisco, CA
Came across RNER.OB today. Company makes filters for dialysis and appears to be growing rapidly. Stock closed at $0.03 on Friday on 381K volume. Float is 10M. Monitor this one.
Murocman
Not sure what to make of this stock
This stock traded somewhere around $1.4M in volume Thursday and Friday on approximatley 182M shares. It went up over 400% on Thursday and pulled back 45% on Friday.
Looking back at the previous few weeks, the highest daily volume was 13M shares with the trades being in the .001-.002 range.
Something is up and its not being driven by retail activity IMO. The company looks like it has an interesting product and they have gotten some traction with it in Europe and India.
The disconcerting thing is that if you look at the last 10Q, they had no revenue, so I'm not sure if they are giving the product away or what?!
Not quite sure what to make of this stock...will watch and see what happens Tuesday.
GLTA,
Murocman
If you look at the chart, there is a support level at $1.25 and another stronger one at $1.00. The stock just broke through its 50 DMA on Friday. Volume was elevated so will be key to see how the stock reacts from a technicalm point of view in the absence of any news.
If it regains its 50 DMA, on good volume, then I think the stock will stabilize. If not, will probably test the $1.25 and possibly the $1 area.
If approval does come all bets are off. The stock will likely gap and run significantly and you wouldn't want to be out of it.
That's what makes this fun...if it were predictable, we'd all be rich!
GLTU,
Murocman
Price Targets for Next Week?
I'm thinking if this gets by $0.024 on strong volume (20-30M), we could see $0.05 if the news is good on the commercials.
Thoughts?
GLTA,
Murocman
Anybody have any prognostications on how fair it will run. I had a target of $0.05, but if the company does come out with good earnings and Ana & Bill threaten the U.S. maybe we could see $0.10 in the near-term?
GLTA,
Murocman
The company needs to put out a PR to really get things going IMO.
I am mystified as to why they haven't put out a release on this agreement? Anybody else finding this strange?
Murocman
Just listened to the Conference Call. While it bothers me a bit that the company is including a $1 per gallon govt subsidy in their profit calculations, it is likely to be be in place throughout the current administration.
It was also mentioned on the call that the company has supplied animal fat syn-fuel (600 gallons) to the USAF for certification, which was news to me.
I do like the fact that this company will likely be the first to mass produce bio-fuel from a non-food source, and think they will have an instant market for their product.
The stock market seemed like the call. If the stock can continue to move higher on good volume and close above $3.24, I think we could see $3.50-$4 in the short-term on technicals alone.
If there is news regarding a second plant vis-a-vis the compay's DOE application or an announcement about USAF certification I think we could get to the $6-7 range. All-in-all I think this will be a very good alternative energy play over the next couple years.
GLTA,
Murocman
Earnings are out:
Syntroleum Announces Second Quarter 2009 Financial Results
Conference Call Scheduled for August 10, 2009
Press Release
Source: Syntroleum Corporation
On Friday August 7, 2009, 7:09 pm EDT
Buzz up! 1 Print.Companies:Syntroleum Corp.
TULSA, Okla., Aug. 7, 2009 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- Syntroleum Corporation (Nasdaq:SYNM - News) today announced financial results for the quarter ended June 30, 2009.
* Cash position of $16.0 million compared to a cash position of
$10.1 million at December 31, 2008.
* Net cash provided by operating activities was $12.6 million for the
first six months of 2009 compared to net cash provided by operating
activities of $1.0 million for the same period last year.
* Total revenue of $21.9 million for the first half of 2009 compared
to $2.5 million for the same period last year.
* Total net income of $7.4 million for the first half of 2009
compared to a loss of $4.1 million.
* Net income per share of $ 0.11 versus a loss of $0.07 for the six
months ended June 30, 2009 and 2008, respectively.
* Dynamic Fuels LLC (50/50 venture with Tyson Foods) plant, which is
under construction in Geismar, Louisiana, is 54% complete and we
expect to complete construction in December of 2009. The plant
remains on budget.
We generated $12.6 million in cash flow from our operating activities for the six months ended June 30, 2009 compared to $1.0 million in cash flow from operations for the same period last year. Our operating activities have generated cash flows from the execution of key business transactions. Our current receivable balance is $6.5 million from current executed contracts and delivery of technology. We made a $6.0 million investment in Dynamic Fuels on April 1, 2009. Should Dynamic Fuels need the last $5 million budgeted for the project during the fourth quarter of 2009, it will be funded out of cash flow.
For additional information, see the Company's Form 10-Q for the June 30, 2009 period, which will be filed with the SEC on Monday, August 10, 2009. The 10-K is available through the Investor Relations section of the Company's Web site, www.syntroleum.com.
Conference Call
Syntroleum management plans to hold a conference call with the investment community on Monday, August 10, 2009, at 10:00 a.m. Central time (11:00 a.m. Eastern). To participate in the teleconference, investors should dial 877-261-8990 about 10 minutes before the start time and reference the Syntroleum conference call. International callers should dial 847-619-6441.
The above translates into a $0.07 loss for the quarter on $1.5M in revenue according to my calculations. On the bright side, the plant still looks to be on schedule and budget going into the fourth quarter.
Any weakness is a buying opportunity IMO.
GLTA,
Murocman
Earnings NLT 1 Week Away and thoughts on CD's
We should see the next 10Q either next Thursday or Friday.
I went for a quick ride on ETLY yesterday and today and rolled my profits into more TTEG. The mess of a share structure that ETLY has got me thinking about TTEG so I looked at the last 10Q to try and get a feel for how much convertible debt they are carrying.
From what I can tell, they have a $1M line at 8% with Golden Gate, due 2012, that they've drawn $200K on to date. The loans are convertible to stock once the price reaches $0.50, or after 20 days upon notice by Golden Gate (There are some rather complex conversion parameters for the exact price listed in the Q that I won't repeat here).
Golden Gate can only convert to shares on money drawn by the company. To date, they have converted $25K of the $200K to approximately 361K shares (at around $0.07) in the first quarter according to the 10Q.
Bottom line: I think we may be in for some dilution if the company puts out news and the price starts to move, BUT, there should be a bit of a delay based on the notice requirement unless the price gets to $0.50. The other thing to remember is the higher the share price, the lower the rate of dilution.
I think we're OK here. While these CD's might slow down the price advance a bit if the volume isn't heavy and sustained, this company looks to be in a lot better shape than many I've see/traded.
GLTA,
Murocman
I'd expect earnings tomorrow after the close of history is any guide. It will be interesting to see ho the market handicaps the release. I went and looked at the last two releases and the share price was up on both the day of the release and the following trading day. Volume was much heavier on the following day. FWIW...GLTA!
Murocman
This is time to be position building in this stock vice trying to trade it IMO. Money flow is too low at this point. Until there is news that produces several days of volume in hundreds of K's of shares traded, this is probably going to drift, so I'd place orders at the bid until news comes. You'll probably catch somebody who is impatient at some point and pick up some shares on the cheap.
When and if it does go based on news, this one may be tough to catch up to until it hits the $0.30-0.40 range.
GLTA,
Murocman
The key is getting a licensing/manufacturing agreement that results in engines being built commercially (anywhere)for any type of application in the near-term IMO.
This will give much needed revenue and exposure to the company, along with creating demand for additional opportunities.
Get something out there quickly to give the market a tatse of the technology and people will beat a path to their door.
The interview hints at something along these lines in the works. Hopefully we'll see some news very soon?
As somewhat of an aside, I found it very interesting in the interview that the least attractive market from TTEG's perspective right now is the U.S. This is one area where the U.S. entreprenuerial spirit has never seemed to be able to gain any traction. It seems like there are a lot of ideas, but most can't compete with the economics of current fuels (one company about to crack that code is Syntroleum-SYNM IMO). That said, if the Chinese or the Europeans embrace this technology, I bet North America will follow.
They said volume precedes price, so hopefully we'll move North of $0.20 this week!
GLTA,
Murocman
Link to 27 Jul Radio Interview:
http://www.mevio.com/episode/167473/FEN_090727
GLTA,
Murocman
I was having trouble downloading the investor presentation off their website so emailed IR for it. I got the presentation and had the following exchange:
John,
Mechanical completion is scheduled for year end, followed by commissioning, start up, ramp up and full rate operation by mid year.
We are all looking forward to getting the plant on line and getting on to our second plant.
Best regards.
Jeff
Thanks Jeff. Presentation works just fine and is impressive. It looks like Syntroleum is on the cusp of big things! When is the plant scheduled to be completed?
Thanks,
John Anderson
I have very little doubt there will be a second plant. As long as this one works as advertised, the demand will be there. Gas/oil prices will likely continue to trend higher and I think there is a strong chance the USAF/DOD will give this company a large contract to make them jet fuel. It is a great time to load the boat IMO. This company is in the process of leading the way in the creation of a new industry creating fuel from animal fat.
GLTA,
Murocman
Commercialization?
Does anyone have a sense for the company's plan and timeline to commercialize its technology? Organic manufacturing? Contract Manufacturing? Licensing? etc?
It seems to me that this is the next step. If the technology is as good as it looks at first glance, I would think they wouldn't have much of a problem getting a partner onboard to manufacture these things?
Thoughts?
GLTA,
Murocman
Still looking OK here IMO.
If we don't see the stock start to run up in anticipation of approval on Wed-Thur-Fri, I'll get concerned. This stock was around $1 in late April, so the action we're seeing may just be some 'nervous nellies' locking in their profits?
GLTA,
Murocman
I'll bite.
I'm looking for $2.50-3.50 pre-approval. If we can get above $3 on good volume, that would be very bullish, as that is the prior most recent high for the stock.
Assuming we get above $3, and we do get approval at the end of the week, I'd look for $5-6 on approval. If the company follows up with a partnership deal in the short-term, $10 is not out of the question IMO.
GLTA,
Murocman
DJ Newswire Stories (there were two) :
2:37 (Dow Jones) Canadian biotech Labopharm (DDSS) has seen its stock jump 30% already this month, despite underwhelming initial prescription data for its Ryzolt painkiller. RBC Capital Markets says the market's attention is now focused on US approval of its second drug, anti-depressant trazodone, which could come by July 18. "Given the poor performance to date of Ryzolt, the company's dependence on a favorable decision by the FDA for trazodone...has increased in importance," RBC says. DDSS up 8.1% at $2.66. (AMG)
By Andy Georgiades
Of DOW JONES NEWSWIRES
TORONTO (DOW JONES)--Labopharm Inc. (DDSS) has made a great deal of progress in partnership talks for its Trazodone drug, but it sees no reason at this point to sign a deal until a U.S. regulatory decision is made, its top executive said.
In an interview with Dow Jones, James Howard-Tripp said that, with only two weeks to go until the U.S. Food and Drug Administration makes a decision, there would be "no logic" in finalizing a marketing pact now.
The FDA is expected to make a decision by July 18.
"With most groups, once you get to within a couple of weeks of the (FDA's deadline) date, (they're) probably a little reluctant to sign," he said, adding that Labopharm would also prefer to wait.
Assuming a positive decision, Labopharm would want to complete the partnership "fairly rapidly" after approval, with the aim of launching the drug "very early" in 2010, he said.
Trazodone has many generics available, but Labopharm's version is taken only once daily and can help patients sleep better.
Labopharm's stock has been on a tear, up 28% in July alone, mainly on anticipation of a regulatory decision on Trazodone and/or a partnership.
Canaccord Adams analyst Neil Maruoka said in a note Monday that he believes Trazodone has a "better-than-average" approval chance.
"A positive decision would likely result in a pop in the stock and point to a potential partnership for the drug in the near-term," he wrote. He rates the stock a buy.
On Nasdaq Monday, Labopharm is up 7 cents to $2.53 on 980,000 shares.
GLTA,
Murocman
Dilution would definitely throw cold water on this stock. I haven't been able to find out if there are any convertibles hanging out there.
The fact that this is a Canadian company makes that a bit tougher. Will keep digging today and post if I find anything.
GLTU,
Murocman