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1 more year until 1-ton production... why? It does not make sense that we were on a precipitous of it, but now we need the time for 4 breeding cycles to get there.
Supposedly there is lots of demand but we can't fulfill it because of commitments to clothing production. Seems fishy. Clothing production is the least exciting product from spider silk.
I am glad for the update, skeptical of the timelines, and 1 year from washing my hands of this company either way.
The company stated in no uncertain terms that they can produce enough spider silk to begin commercial operations. Then stated, "The Company expects to immediately begin operations with this contractor to produce hundreds of kilograms of spider silk per month and to achieve production levels reaching multiple metric tons of spider silk per month as early as the first quarter of 2023."
These facts and statements together with enough time for one production run to have occurred, lead me to that conclusion. The second statement obviously has a ton of wiggle room and can not be nailed down in a lawsuit but, coupled with the earlier statements, there is a compelling case for this company actually delivering on their promise.
It's crazy to expect within a quarter that they transform their first multi-hundred kilo production batch into a finished product. It's going to take time. I'd say we are "Almost there" in the sense that they have proven the company is viable and able to do what they set out to do. The work of setting up a textile supply chain and developing finished products will take a while, possibly all the way through 2023. But for the first time, I feel like my investment is safe and will breakout to new highs!
There is a difference between raw spider silk and a finished product. There are so many steps that need to be taken care of before raw silk is blended with other materials and turned into a sweater. The announcement of hundreds of kilos of raw silk has been made. Now it's time to be patient and let the rest of the production process take place.
KRAIG LABS CRITICAL UPDATES FROM THE LAST 5 MONTHS
The break in recent news flow may cause some to panic, but I would argue that it seems like we are headed for a breakout based on the comments from the press releases made over the last 5 months (see below). The team seems to be working under 2 timetables. The first is the short-term immediate success needed to prove viability, and the next is a long-term overarching plan to scale the success they achieve in short term.
The short-term plan looks to be coming to fruition in Q4 2022 and could possibly start to gain momentum as early as October. The company has stated That testing throughput has increased 10x, 85% of silkworms from the cycle announced 4 months ago would be used to launch Spydasilk, and 7/8 weeks later Spydasilk had enough raw spider silk to launch, developed swatches, purchased a minority stake in a manufacturer, and sent eggs to that manufacturer that are set to finish their delivery cycle around 10/10/2022. The estimated metric ton production of Spider silk to be on the horizen.
The long-term planning includes the 15% of eggs that were saved 4 months ago that has had a chance to run through 2/3 cycles, upgrades to the facilities for scaling testing and throughput, attending tradeshows, engaging the existing silk manufacturing industry in Vietnam to find the best 3rd party contractors for their production, reviewing contractor pilot runs, and securing a business license to operate in Lam Dong which is the heart of Vietnam's silk work rearing industry.
Kraig Labs is on a trajectory that is making the vision clear. Time is needed to engage the best partners for production and iron out the production/supply chain details. As this is happening, the labs are producing cycle after cycle of silkworms which should be growing exponentially. One thing is clear, they have produced enough viable spider silk from silkworms to fulfill a commercial product launch. Kraig Labs has entered the commercial phase of its business. All this time, effort, and money spent on research will now pay off, it is now just a matter of time.
Article 4/27/22 - "Once the team completes this testing cycle, it will have increased its throughput by nearly ten times that of Q1 2022."
Article 5/3/2022 - "...85% of all silkworms produced this month are slated for spinning and use in finished fabrics and garments. These materials will be dedicated to the Company's joint venture apparel brand, SpydasilkTM."
Article 5/17/2022 - "Over the last month, we have seen a significant increase in the demand from the medical field for our spider silk fibers and fabrics," said COO, Jon Rice.
Article 6/8/2022 - "In previous discussions, this manufacturer already outlined a production scale-up plan to produce as much as 200 metric tons of silk per year."
Article 6/21/22 "...completed production of the raw recombinant spider silk needed for the first apparel launch under the Company’s jointly owned apparel brand, SpydasilkTM"........."Based on the results of these first pilot runs and the contractors' production capacity, the Company is now on a path to producing metric tons of spider silk.".......... "...we are entering the next phase of our business plan, which includes rapid production expansion with subcontractors in parallel with the growth of our nascent joint venture apparel brand. Together, our teams from Kraig, Prodigy Textiles, and SpydasilkTM are showing significant and tangible success on all fronts"
Article 6/27/22 - "...the Company finalized its manufacturer choice for the first apparel launch under the SpydasilkTM brand."............"...the Company has already delivered its recombinant spider silk yarn and a non-spider silk fabric swatch for use in developing a brand new fabric built upon the performance and feel of the Company's spider silk."
Article 7/12/22 - "...signing of its first 3rd party production contract for large scale manufacturing of the Company's recombinant spider silk. The Company expects to immediately begin operations with this contractor to produce hundreds of kilograms of spider silk per month and to achieve production levels reaching multiple metric tons of spider silk per month as early as the first quarter of 2023. The contractor is in possession of the Company’s specialized eggs and anticipates a 90-day ramp-up for the first deliveries under the contract." (90 days from this article is 10/12/22)..........."Kraig Labs will become a minority owner of the silk producer."
Article 7/20/22 - "...the Company believes that this facility is now equipped to meet the production demand for its proprietary specialized spider silk silkworm eggs through 2025 and has the capacity to expand far beyond that"
8/17/2022 - "...newly established business license and facility in Lam Dong Province"
A new expectation of hundreds of tons has been set. This is what I would expect of a multi-billion dollar company. I'm glad they are aiming high. Hopefully they can execute.
I hope KBL can produce better than I can spell...
"cacoon"
lol fml
I think we've lost the forest for the trees here...
We shouldn't worry about the daily price, because price follows earnings. If the company makes money the share price will follow.
After this PR we have established:
Commercial production is occurring.
Massive problems such as genetic drift, mulberry supplies, and the capacity of the facility have been overcome.
There is a 40m contract to be filled.
KBL has a joint subsidiary (Spydasilk) and owns a portion of a manufacturer.
Potential new product lines will be developed in the coming years out of disease-resistant worms, large proteins from the unused goop around the cacoon, and silks with new highly specific properties that can be created with the knock-in-knock-out genetic modifications process.
A company with very little debt for its earning potential, very low expenses, and a product that may continue to be made in a very inexpensive manner. This has the makings of a cash cow when real revenues start to come in.
Massive institutions like the US military and medical companies have shown interest in the past.
The train has officially left the station. Now it is a matter of when not if. The only problem that I can see derailing the current state of affairs with KBL is if the recumbent spider silk does not test as well as traditional spider silk for the properties that make it so desirable.
Has anyone done the math to approximate when the next generation should be hatched/gathered?
Does anyone have a clue about the sudden price hike?
How is Asset Care making less money if it is a subscription model and they are gaining connected assets?
DVP, you are correct about the source of the funding. With that said, I'm under the impression that this is their contribution, not a loan. Correct?
Maybe I am misreading the PR or your comment, but I believe the dealerships are proving the upfront cost. A 7-year investment that allows your company to be "green" and gets customers on the lot isn't a bad idea for some dealerships if those numbers hold up.
When they say they are producing Dragon Silk, are they referring to the original product or was that name moved to the new more pure silk announced in 2020?
I remember Kim considered changing the name but am not sure if he ever followed through.
Is this company a dead man walking?
I have no idea how they can make up enough revenue unless something dramatically positive happens very soon.
The revenue shrank and they lost 18m last year. That is crazy when compared to their projections...
With all this talk of production increasing 10x, I'm curious about which line they are producing, if they are receiving consistent quality, and if they are not receiving consistent quality, would they need to announce that to avoid liability in the future?
Does anyone think that the timing of receiving the 1.5m last week (even though it is from an older agreement), indicates that they are still a few months or generations away from generating revenue?
What an abysmal year. 18m net loss, revenue down from the previous year, 1k connected assets a quarter (20% of reported capacity), more nonsense excuses about lack of growth, more old promises going to the wayside with no follow-up, and moving the connected assets goalpost before reaching the 70k stated goal of the last few years.
I'm tired of this. I may have to sell out and mark this as a loss if there is another awful quarter.
Does becoming a Mercedes-EQ partner mean offering free services? If so, I'm not sure that is a move when supposedly there is a backlog of paying customers that have not got their asset care connections brought online.
IMO the new information was a confirmation that they are going to be working in oil & gas in Saudi. Prior to this announcement, I do not believe they had actually stated that, only implied it.
I've been invested here for a while. I think we are finally right around the corner from this company achieving its original goal of a scalable spider silk solution that is eco-friendly and cost-effective. The energy among investors is rising, the news is lining up, and it seems like all the pieces are in place.
If they do make the first major sales soon, do you think the price will explode and production will have to catch up or will past sentiment hold the price lower as the company proves it can reach each new production level it sets?
Ah ok, thank you for that detail.
Have you asked the investor relations department? They may fill in some details.
I missed the comment about the 70k connections moving to Q4. Thanks for stating that. IMHO I believe they will not be able to hit 70k until early to mid next year based on the average rate per quarter in the last couple of years.
I just don't understand how they are not doing exceptionally well with the connected workers or air quality tech right now.
Couldn't they use the connected worker platform to guide people from the companies to install the asset sensors(connections) for them if they are not able to go onsite themselves?
I agree with DVP25's point about the CFL games with crowds. How can that be available but the ability to connect assets not? It has me worried about their backlog.
Considering the recent news, do you think the pps can get back to 0.16 before the next shoe drops? Is it likely that revenue is generated this quarter?
Did anyone watch the event yesterday(9/14)? I watched some of it. I thought the details about the expansion of Assetcare were interesting and the added information on the air quality app was good.
What did you guys think? Any big takeaways?
I agree. I'm hoping that they have taken advantage of their opportunities outside of Alberta where covid restrictions have been lifted for a bit. If they get cash flow positive, we will be in great shape.
Is this run based on the Saudi Arabia meetings? What are the predictions for Q2 results?
Would it be feasible to find a mill in a country with low Covid cases and/or restrictions like New Zealand, Australia, or an open state in the US?
Thank you for your responses DVP25 and Tickbomb.
Another issue I'm not understanding is, why are they not getting hired like crazy for air purification considering the push to get people back to work? Does anyone have insight into that issue?
Hey everyone, I've followed the board for a while and own some shares. I was looking through the Q1 results and wanted some of your opinions on the financials.
$8.4m revenue generated in Q1. Net Loss was 8.8m for the quarter. The company claims it will be profitable at 70k connected assets. Considering they are only ~13% away from reaching the connected asset goal but would need to increase revenue by almost 100% to break even, these numbers do not seem compatible. Am I missing something?
I'd appreciate it if some of you would indulge me with some speculation based on the information we have been presented in the last year.
Based on the timing of the egg shipment to Vietnam, KBLB should be 2 to 3 life cycles in on those worms, do you believe they are focusing on growing the number of worms or developing silk?
Do you believe a major shipment will be announced soon, there has been a large problem we have not heard about (like genetic drift), or there is a longer timeline (+4 months until a major shipment is announced)?
Which brand of silk are they trying to produce?
Thanks
I think this is a solid thought exercise, but I believe the assumption that the offering will be in the previously mentioned range of $4.25 to $6.25, no matter what the R/S ratio turns out to be, is incorrect.
At the current share price of 0.17 with a R/S of 100/1, the share price would be $17. Even if the share price took a 50% drop from that point (which I think would be very unlikely), you are looking at $8.50 per share.
It would be extreme malpractice to then offer shares in the $4.25 to $6.25 range. This range is not immutable. I believe the 9% dilution would be a reasonable ceiling for the dilution unless more money was raised. If the share price is higher, then the offering share price will be higher.
Exactly... It's ridiculous that people are trying to make the R/S into something terrible when there is 0 effect on the value of the company and the dilution (which will have an effect on the value of the company) is minimal. It seems like a bad-faith effort to me.
Any predictions for the Q4 earnings numbers?
If there isn't a business case for an R/S, and an R/S is conducted to keep the share price looking the same as the value drops, then an R/S is a terrible idea.
That is not the case here. There is a clear objective and benefit from the R/S.
I don't understand why this board treats the R/S like a boogeyman. The ratio does not matter at all, other than being able to meet the price for the uplist. There is no difference in value and the liquidity argument is ridiculous considering there will still be millions of shares to trade even at 100:1.
The dilution included with the R/S will have a tiny effect on your overall ownership. The cash from that dilution will be invaluable for growing the production capabilities.
The ability to attract institutional investors will have a massive benefit on the share price initially and will allow the share price to stabilize after the first run.
It's the best move Kim could make. I truly don't understand why the R/S would keep someone from buying or cause someone to sell this company.