watching biotechs, gold & silver
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GameStop short-sellers have lost $5 billion this year as Reddit's day-trader army squeezed their bearish bets
https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/gamestop-short-sellers-squeezed-losses-reddit-traders-army-cohen-palihapitiya-2021-1-1030006226
We need Melvin Capital and Citron to short AUPH, then need to notify Reddit's army to smoke them.
cheers
Aurinia Pharmaceuticals Given New $28.00 Price Target at SVB Leerink
https://www.americanbankingnews.com/2021/01/27/aurinia-pharmaceuticals-nasdaqauph-given-new-28-00-price-target-at-svb-leerink.html
Big Pharma vs the little guy
They clearly play hardball.
I'm picturing PhDs in white lab coats, hanging out in dark alleys, armed with brass knuckles and nunchucks.
Maybe Aurinia should have stayed in Vancouver.
Could be a rough ride.
Maybe GameStop will buy us.
cheers
Here's Corey in 2018 being bullish on Aurinia
He was in Jekyll mode then; today he is Mr. Hyde
Cory Renauer (Aurinia Pharmaceuticals Inc.): This clinical-stage biotech stock isn't too popular on Wall Street, but a recent addition to the popular iShares Nasdaq Biotechnology index and corresponding exchange-traded fund could change that.
Institutions might temporarily push up Aurinia's stock price as they acquire enough shares to represent its index weighting, but a rare-disease drug candidate in late-stage development could really send it soaring. The company's lead candidate, voclosporin, looks like a huge improvement for roughly half a million Americans living with lupus nephritis (LN), an autoimmune disease that can lead to fatal kidney damage.
There aren't any drugs specifically approved to treat LN Calcineurin inhibitors limit LN activity, but maintaining a blood concentration high enough to be effective but low enough to avoid harmful side effects is difficult. More effective with less side effects has always been a recipe for drugmaker success, and Aurinia's voclosporin appears to tick both boxes.
Most notably, voclosporin led to a higher rate of complete disease remission ever recorded during a midstage LN trial. That gives the drug $1-billion-plus peak annual sales potential, and makes Aurina a top stock to watch in 2018.
Negative Aurinia article from Motley Fool today
Corey must be an AF protege or wannabe
Or maybe somebody got to him, as he has written positive articles about AUPH in the past
https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/01/27/heres-why-everybodys-talking-about-aurinia-pharmac/
Newton's 3rd law of motion- I like that!
Saw a post of yours where you were debating with someone re the galaxies expanding or contracting.
You get into some heavy stuff. If there's a link you like that speaks of/explains that issue in layman's terms (so I could fathom it), please post it and TIA
cheers
Hi Jess, I believe just USA, but I do not have access to the full report. Just seeing excerpts and relaying what I see.
Based on the pt population Cowen refers to in that excerpt (60-80,000 patients), their projections are solely US.
I would think if it included Japan, Europe, etc., Otsuka would be mentioned
I think I know where you're going and you are correct- my BO numbers are too low :)
Additional excerpts from borrowed Cowen report:
AUPH
from Cowen: it appears the treatment population could be anywhere between roughly 60-80,000 patients, and the survey indicates – as noted above – that the clinicians plan on treating roughly 45% of their patients with voclosporin within three years (or roughly 25-35,000 patients) which would be nearly double the 15-20,000 LN patient target that is necessary to reach our $1B peak estimate.
30k at $60k = 1.8 billion per year
30k at $70k = 2.1 billion per year
30k at $80k = 2.4 billion per year
30k at $90k = 2.7 billion per year
If you do the math and apply realistically conservative numbers it all adds up to a
BO value of $45-65
This truly is an exciting thought:
(This is "borrowed" from Lunacy)
COWEN: "our recent survey indicates that clinicians plan on treating roughly 45% of their pts with Lupkynis within 3 years...which would more than double the 15,000 LN patient target that is necessary to reach $1B+."
cheers
The sooner the Albatross ILJIN is gone, the better for Aurinia and its shareholders
At least their ownership is now under 10%. Maybe an institution will buy out their interest someday. With the millions of shares they acquired for peanuts, they pretty much have free rein to jerk the price around whenever they wish.
The following is from September, 2020:
ILJIN SNT may in the future take such actions with respect to its investment in Aurinia as it deems appropriate, including, without limitation, proposals for business combinations or otherwise acquiring additional Common Shares or warrants, engaging in any hedging or similar transactions with respect to Common Shares, effecting changes in the board composition, ownership structure or operations of Aurinia, submitting shareholder proposals regarding amendments to Aurinia's articles or other policies, encouraging Aurinia to pursue one or more strategic transactions and/or otherwise changing their intention with respect to any and all matters. Any such transaction or action referred to in this paragraph would be made in compliance with all applicable laws and regulations.
https://www.newswire.ca/news-releases/iljin-snt-co-ltd-announces-filing-of-early-warning-report-related-to-aurinia-pharmaceuticals-inc--880300003.html
"If only they had used their power for good instead of evil"
IIJIN sold a pant load.....
I always suspected they are always carrying a load in their pants.
They are the worst!
Hemodialysis care costs the Medicare system an average of $90,000 per patient annually
Spending for transplant patient care is $3.4 billion.
https://pharm.ucsf.edu/kidney/need/statistics#:~:text=Hemodialysis%20care%20costs%20the%20Medicare,a%20total%20of%20%2428%20billion.
Lupkynis makes so much sense
How many shares are being stolen from weak hands today?
I'm guessing millions
cheers
I suspect Andre Uddin (Mackie) is not really Canadian
They're supposed to be nicer
Wherever he may be from I don't know, but I do know for certain that he is one, incredibly worthless, tool & SOB
Hallelujah anyway!
As Jess has noted, the end game is in sight and we're basically home free.
Talk about your de-risked opportunities!
Yowser!
cheers
Canadian AF Doppelganger has struck with a vengeance!
What follows is some incredible BS. How much did he get paid?
Assuming he had to be paid since no one could be this stupid!
Mackie Research #Downgrading AUPH from a SPECULATIVE BUY to a HOLD Rating Despite the FDA Approved Lupkynis (voclosporin) for Lupus Nephritis target price of US$17.90/share
The FDA approval of Lupkynis is certainly a big win for AUPH. However, we believe it is prudent to stand on the sidelines for now as the market likely has fully factored in the near term Lupkynis commercialization.
Expecting some followup stating that Mackie Research has been downgraded to avoid like the plague (or Covid)
Another analyst upgrade- Cantor Fitzgerald
raises PT from $27 to $34
$17.44? Are you freaking kidding?
Do we have any Scientologists here?
Wondering what Duggan is doing with his millions of shares?
Must be time or almost time to add at this level
Let's see: $25 after P3 results, then down to $12, and now only $17 after FDA approval, plus they are sitting with $450M in cash!
WTF!
Oh yeah, best label possible with patent protection for 16 years to 2037!
Also, a best in class, new SOC, potential life-saving drug with blockbuster sales likely.
Truly a world gone mad.
Another blow added to the disappointment that BR is not really contacting the 'My Pillow" guy for help
You're joking now, right?
I’ve sent them an invite......
That would be great! Good luck with it!
Is this a solid plan or ???
Now that the 'My Pillow' guy has been permanently banned from Twitter, someone with influence persuades him and Trump to reach their legions of followers by communicating via the AUPH iHub board.
In this scenario, they both become Lupkynis fans; thus spreading the word so that Trump's tens of millions of die-hards each wind up owning at least 1000 shares of AUPH.
I see $50 easy.
cheers
350% increase in option call volume yesterday
Aurinia Pharmaceuticals Inc. (NASDAQ:AUPH) (TSE:AUP) was the recipient of some unusual options trading activity on Monday. Stock investors acquired 21,323 call options on the stock. This is an increase of approximately 350% compared to the typical daily volume of 4,738 call options.
https://www.marketbeat.com/instant-alerts/nasdaq-auph-options-data-report-2021-01/
RBC Capital analyst Douglas Miehm raised the price target on Aurinia Pharmaceuticals (NASDAQ: AUPH) to $28.00 (from $20.00)
Revised (up) price targets for AUPH
(from another board)
Bloom Burton....... $20 > $24
Oppenheimer....... $20 > $28
Cowen ................ old? > $30
Jeffries................. old? > $35
HCW.................... $30 > $35
Nice start! Need to see these bumped up within 90 days or so
(Assuming they have some decent starting sales numbers)
cheers
Why Aurinia Pharmaceuticals Stock Is Flying Today
https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/01/25/why-aurinia-pharmaceuticals-stock-is-flying-today/
I remember SAVA from back when they were PTIE (Pain Therapeutics).
I think their original name fit as I can recall the experience of ownership was quite painful indeed.
To overcome the distress, I liberally self-medicated with copious quantities of alcohol, which seemed to help dull the pain.
It's probably fine but you know the old saw, 'once bitten..........'
Keep the stock tips coming everybody- it's a fun exercise to see what others currently like
cheers
Are we sure AF's handlers didn't squeeze him after he said some nice things about us? Don't they need to exit also?
Inquiring minds want to know
cheers
Thanks Ganz. Hope you are right!
That would be pretty exciting!
Definitely have to hang around for a while with this one.
cheers
.....do these patients stay on therapy year after year?
Great question! At least one analyst on the call asked about that, and I believe PG said they were currently modeling 1 year.
I also think Neil Solomons said the extension study results will be out later this year, and I forget exactly but isn't that a multi-year study?
Hi Jess, I'm guessing it must be a TOS violation
Re BO price- I think you're right on the mark.
Doesn't this conservatively have to be worth at least 4X peak sales?
With the 2037 patent, isn't peak at $1.5B conservative or at least reasonable?
If those assumptions are fair, the number is $45.
Off-label would add more. Any guesstimates how big that could be?
TIA
cheers
wow $65,000 per year per patient
At least one or more analysts modeled their price target on a $35,000 annual cost, so I would think some PT's should move up.
I like this price because:
a. I think Benlysta is priced at $55K annually, and it's an IV drug that rates very poorly compared to Lupkynis
b. At $65K, they can move up in price instead of having to go down. I think the average treatment cost per patient now is around that price so it's a relative bargain considering the alternatives. They get a much better/healthier result at around the same, or maybe lower price.
nsomniyak- webcast in 1 minute
https://78449.themediaframe.com/dataconf/productusers/auph/mediaframe/43277/indexl.html
Apologies for just seeing this- I'm running late- you probably already have the info
Good luck to us today & beyond!
Now $32. I don’t know if I trust it
I think it's bogus. Nasdaq shows it's still halted. I think it doesn't open until after the CC, which is slated for 8:30 am.
I'm guessing it will open at 9:30 a.m., along with everything else.
http://www.nasdaqtrader.com/Trader.aspx?id=TradeHalts
I saw earlier that there was a $30 or so price in Dusseldorf but there was no price in Frankfurt.
I think it's an error over in Dusseldorf somehow.
Good luck to us today!
cheers
Looks like I don’t have to pick a fight with AF and STAT news...
You're safe Luna! Way better article!
(Jess- the doppelganger effect manifests itself again)
From the ST board:
Fugitive447
Bullish
11m
$AUPH
Adam Feuerstein out with new article
statnews.com/2021/01/24/aur...
Aurinia Pharmaceuticals won approval from the Food and Drug Administration on Friday evening to market a new medicine for patients with lupus nephritis, a serious autoimmune kidney disease. It’s good news for patients, but the nature of the approval also makes it especially good news for Aurinia and investors.
While the approval of the new drug, called Lupkynis, was expected, the FDA allowed Aurinia to include proprietary dosing instructions in its prescribing label. The dosing instructions help physicians tailor Lupkynis treatment for lupus nephritis patients, but they also strengthen and extend the drug’s patent protection.
DES is only mostly dead
There's a big difference between mostly dead and all dead.
...they picked patient comfort over efficacy.
There's a very strange irony with that decision.
They got P2 and P3 .001 efficacy in LN because Voclosporin's effect could be measured objectively.
It's so bizarre Aurinia would pick a subjective measure in DES when they could have followed their successful strategy of objective measurements.
Very, very strange. On a related note, the recent patent infringement lawsuit that Aurinia filed suggests their DES (VOS) program isn't completely dead.
McDermott Will & Emery filed a lawsuit Friday in New Jersey District Court on behalf of Aurinia Pharmaceuticals. The complaint, which claims infringement of a patent for an ophthalmic solution, targets Sun Pharmaceutical Industries and other defendants. Counsel have not yet appeared for the defendants. The case is 3:20-cv-19805, Aurinia Pharmaceuticals Inc. v. Sun Pharmaceutical Industries Inc. et al.
Sounds good Jess. Hope GSK does buy them
cheers
PS. But BR agrees with you. What does that mean?
Thanks Luna. Re ...there are some nut cases out there.
You have a great gift for understatement!
Lately, it seems there are far more 'nuts' out there than I would have ever previously imagined possible!
Congrats on all your well-deserved success!
Always enjoyable/rewarding to read your posts, whichever board you're on at the moment.
Best to you and yours,
cheers
PS. I'm guessing you're also a fan of Vonnegut's 'Harrison Bergeron'.
Only 60 years to go and we're all equal!
http://www.tnellen.com/cybereng/harrison.html
Jess, re: ..GSK I would think will be a major suitor for Auph BO...
That sounds right but I wonder about possible antitrust issues; ie., if GSK buys them, GSK would then have a monopoly on Lupus treatments.
I would think gov't would frown on that but I'm just guessing and don't know what the rules are, or how they would/could be interpreted.
I could see some pt advocates being upset though.
Just a thought
cheers
andypro- Thanks for the suggestions
Best to Vid. When I first got here, his excellent posts really captured my interest in this company
cheers
SRNE is definitely looking more appealing.....
A brief summary of my exploratory research follows:
The 3 positives I've discovered so far are:
A. Ji speaks a language that resembles English
B. Jess and Ganz like it
C. BR hates it
Thanks for the assist, guys
I'm headed out to see if I can find Luna's view of it
cheers
Aurinia's new Lupkynis website is up- check it out at:
https://www.lupkynis.com/
Looks nice!
Congrats again Aurinia!