watching biotechs, gold & silver
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Good July 3rd synopsis of where we're at now:
Aurinia (AUPH) Up on Paving the Way for a Potential Buyout
https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/aurinia-auph-up-on-paving-the-way-for-a-potential-buyout
bikeman- Easy to fix.......send out more boats!
I suspect/surmise that there is a vast multitude of folks out there just "waiting for their ship to come in".
The only flaw being they never sent any boats out.
Perhaps the only thing more daunting than taking a risk is not taking one.
Good luck!
bikeman- Assuming you missed the boat and didn't sell at $30+, it's only about a 340K differential from today's price. So all of your handwringing, whining, crying, complaining since has been a colossal waste. If you truly had the talent, brains, smarts you're always bragging about here you would have put on your big boy pants and forged ahead into other stocks and could have more than recouped your imaginary losses in AUPH, which is clearly a stock you hate.
I've concluded that you are seriously mentally and emotionally ill. If not for ours, for your own sake please get some serious professional help ASAP. You are not living your life to the fullest; in fact far from it.
Head fake?
Busted clocks=lost time. Jess- it amazes me that the haters don't run but stay with it. Isn't the only explanation for that is that they could not find anything they like better?
Why stick with something you don't believe in when there are countless other opportunities?
Truly bizarre behavior!
Thanks for posting that IBD link! AUPH is now on the technical guys radar!
Buy point is $12.13....Nice!
INVESTOR'S BUSINESS DAILY and GLENN LARKIN10:55 AM ET 07/11/2023
One important metric to look for in a stock is an 80 or higher Relative Strength Rating. Aurinia Pharmaceuticals (AUPH) now clears that threshold, with a jump from 79 to 83 Tuesday.
When looking for the best stocks to buy and watch, one factor to watch closely is relative price strength.
This proprietary rating identifies market leadership by using a 1 (worst) to 99 (best) score that identifies how a stock's price performance over the last 52 weeks matches up against other publicly traded companies.
Decades of market research shows that the best-performing stocks tend to have an RS Rating of above 80 in the early stages of their moves.
Looking For Winning Stocks? Try This Simple Routine
While the stock is lower priced than usual for CANSLIM investing, it does trade with a large daily volume. Aurinia Pharmaceuticals is currently working on a consolidation with a 12.13 buy point. See if it can continue moving higher and break out in volume at least 40% above average.
I'm sure she must be somewhat gun-shy by the many twists and turns in this long slog
I think they raised money for them at $20/share and also used to have targets of $34, then kept dropping them to the latest $15.
Who knows where this ultimately lands, but it sure seems like very low risk here.
Renowned Analyst Olivia Brayer Maintains Confidence in Aurinia Pharmaceuticals
On July 6, 2023, Olivia Brayer, a renowned Wall Street analyst at Cantor Fitzgerald, expressed her continued confidence in Aurinia Pharmaceuticals (NASDAQ:AUPH) by reiterating her Overweight rating and maintaining a price target of $15.
https://beststocks.com/renowned-analyst-olivia-brayer-maintains-conf/#:~:text=On%20July%206%2C%202023%2C%20Olivia,a%20price%20target%20of%20%2415
From ST about 20 minutes ago- Nice!
PG announced they were looking at strategic alternatives with Sucampo on 12-11-17.
The buyout of Sucampo was announced on 12-26-17, just 15 days later.
History DOES repeat itself.
Shorts are pretty clever, as they drove the price down right after the open. The biggest players tend to be both short and long, so it wouldn't be a surprise if the earlier dip was Iljin, who is clearly the biggest agitator/catalyst for the push to sell Aurina ASAP.
With nearly 5M shares already traded and considering the nimbleness of the long/short guys, I'm guessing the shorts aren't going to be severely hurt.
Going forward, LT price direction is a no-brainer, as it's virtually impossible to lose at the current, temporary price.
cheers everybody! This looks really good right here!
Surge? definition is: "increase suddenly and powerfully."
What's the word for "increase modestly and moderately"
A frequent mystery, this stock!
Close will be interesting!
GLT the longs here!
Wonder if this is their handiwork; pretty wild July 21 calls action:
AUPH230721C00015000 2023-05-19 3:58PM EDT 15.00 0.85 0.55 0.85 +0.40 +88.89% 7,067 2,316 107.13%
Volume 7000+ for $15 call options = 700,000 shares
Saw this referenced elsewhere with the comment "insane" which seems apt!
cheers
Re today's takedown-This isn't helping the bio's:
FTC sues to block Amgen acquisition of Horizon Therapeutics
https://www.cnbc.com/2023/05/16/horizon-therapeutics-amgen-deal-ftc.html
Powerful testimonial from a Stage 4 LN patient on Lupkynis.
Untapped potential here to prevent dialysis seems enormous
https://sih-st-charts.stocktwits-cdn.com/fit-in/500x0/filters:quality(75)/production/original_527686226.jpg
Don't forget Mother's Day!
Thanks Jess. Hoping what has been a slow lift off will gain critical mass.
I agree with your recent comments that the next 12 months could be really interesting!
Kiwi needs to be especially nice to his Dr. spouse!
Likes KZR at $18, now $2. Hates AUPH at $4, now $11.
It seems obvious who is the breadwinner!
Hope she doesn't give him $$$ to invest!
cheers
He could be one of the tricksters in Skinwalker ranch....
Applying Occam's razor to the Kiwi puzzle, it's possible that he sees AUPH backwards (he should have bought at $4+, etc.) is because he lives in the Southern Hemisphere.
Up is down, etc.
cheers
Maybe a double pop day?!
Why Aurinia Pharmaceuticals Stock Is Glowing Green Today
By George Budwell – Apr 11, 2023 at 2:41PM
https://www.fool.com/investing/2023/04/11/why-aurinia-pharmaceuticals-stock-is-glowing-green/?source=eptyholnk0000202&utm_source=yahoo-host&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=article
They are a fair weather outfit.
I haven't back-tested this, but I think the author's identity has the largest effect on the tone of their articles degree of positivity re Aurinia.
If memory serves, Cory tends to be quite favorably inclined toward AUPH.
Whatever the reality, Cory definitely helped us today!
Would be really nice if today's pop had some legs for a few days or more.
Chk Cosentyx ...already being sold by NVS and drugs in P3.....
Even if approved, this seems like a minimal threat- costs $80,000 per year and has to be injected to boot.
Re your favorite KZR, now that it has dropped from $18 to $2 and change currently, are you still high on it?
TIA
"......chocolate ice cream ....."
No other real option as Vanilla would be considered racist in today's world
Will we see an exodus of lupus nephritis sufferers move to the UK?
Maybe not actually moving there, but rather traveling there to buy Lupkynis.
Here's the cost of Lupkynis in the UK vs. the USA, according to the NIH.
Lupkynis cost for 180 pack of 7.9mg:
USA = $12,400
UK = $1,230
So 10 times cheaper!!!
Your post re The Beatles "It won't be long" may have been a premonition.
RMT- They don't call him PiG for nothing!
A strong contender for worst biotech CEO in this century.
Maybe even any century.
The oinks stop at PiG's desk
Friday's 8M volume spike may have been shorts escaping
Unfortunately, as of 10 days ago there were only 16M shares short
SETTLEMENT DATE SHORT INTEREST AVG. DAILY SHARE VOLUME DAYS TO COVER
03/15/2023 16,379,047 3,141,728 5.213388
Recent volume/price action suggests Betaville is the reason for the recent pop
Date Open High Low Close* Adj Close** Volume
Mar 24, 2023 9.22 10.66 9.22 10.31 10.31 8,313,300
Mar 23, 2023 8.95 9.40 8.81 9.29 9.29 4,752,000
Mar 22, 2023 9.20 9.20 8.70 8.74 8.74 2,385,300
Mar 21, 2023 9.33 9.43 9.04 9.21 9.21 1,977,300
Mar 20, 2023 9.47 9.51 9.10 9.22 9.22 1,901,700
Next week could be fun
GLTA the longs
cheers
Thursday, 23 March 2023, 7:18 pm
Betaville
UNCOOKED ALERT: Aurinia Pharmaceuticals said to ...
https://betaville.co.uk/betaville-intelligence/3ndek1e6/
Dueling SA Aurinia articles- here's the puff piece
Aurinia Pharmaceuticals Has Strong Upside Potential
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4589524-aurinia-pharmaceuticals-strong-upside-potential?mailingid=30929293&messageid=2800&serial=30929293.955&utm_campaign=rta-stock-article&utm_medium=email&utm_source=seeking_alpha&utm_term=30929293.955
Damn!
tacrolimus = nephrotoxic = bad,dangerous,etc.
So i do believe that your narrative is wrong!
More than the narrative may be wrong. KZR currently trading under $4.
Guessing their "Virtual R&D Day" presentation yesterday was somewhat underwhelming.
The private corporate jet tracking index update
from ST yesterday:
Amgen just landed in Vancouver ... 2nd trip in 2 weeks ... and on a Monday morning it ain't for sure a pleasure/skiing trip.
With an SLE drug, AUPH would own the market
Excerpts:
"We are trying to select more patients to go on Saphnelo instead of Benlysta especially if they have arthritis or skin disease…of course, if they have nephritis then I will prescribe Benlysta."
"I think the onset of action is what is appealing to us. I think the downside is that it's not available subcutaneously."
What does this mean for Aurina? If anything..........
Introduction of AstraZeneca's Saphnelo (anifrolumab) has Expanded the Use of Biologic Agents in the Treatment of Systemic Lupus Erythematosus (SLE), Resulting in Gains for GSK's Benlysta (belimumab) as Well, According to Spherix Global Insights
I realize it's about SLE but wondering if we get something out of it
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/introduction-astrazenecas-saphnelo-anifrolumab-expanded-164900751.html
TIA for your thoughts
GLTA longs
This could become exciting fairly quickly!
Hope springs eternal!
GLTA the longs!
Yup....pass the crow please
cheers!
Pfizer, Novartis, Merck are Hunting for Deals Now
Excerpt is from today's WSJ story:
Pharmaceutical executives are ready to make deals.
Executives at Pfizer Inc., said they are looking for promising drugs to add to their pipelines and replenish sales as top-selling products lose patent protection in the coming years
https://www.wsj.com/articles/pfizer-novartis-merck-executives-say-they-are-hunting-for-deals-again-11675907783
Thanks much for the T. Boone Pickens story!
Always loved that guy! The world is poorer without him!
A true giant- legendary investor, wildcatter, entrepreneur, philanthropist, and much more! One of the most colorful characters in our history.
Wish he had run for President.....we might have an intelligent energy policy today.
I love these quotes from him:
“You can’t have a five minute conversation on energy in Washington. They run out of things they can talk about in less than five minutes.”
“There is more oil in Canada than Saudi Arabia. If we turn away the Keystone pipeline from Fort McMurray to the sea for China, we will go down as the dumbest nation in history.”
“It’s a crime against humanity to make ethanol out of corn. We are driving up food prices. Just tap the gas.”
“We are trying a new fracking technology without chemicals; it used electro-magnetic pulses to free the formations. With all of the advances, we have $2.34 natural gas. Technology does not care about the idiots in Washington.”
“I saw my first fracked well in 1953. I have fracked 3000 wells personally. I have not seen an aquifer damaged.”
I was unaware of the Gulf Oil anecdote you shared.......I would love to be wrong on this, even though I'm getting a little tired of eating crow.
BTW, tastes like chicken!
Thanks again
cheers!
BO rumors now reaching new high hilarity level!
I thought it couldn't get crazier! From a recent post on ST- this poster is tracking corporate jets from Big Pharma. Here's his post about a jet from Swiss firm Novartis that landed in the US today:
Novartis PJ (one of the interested parties / possible candidate of AUPH buyout mentioned in the past)
Came all the way from Switzerland to the US today! And guess what, Landed just 36 minutes car drive away from AUPH HQ. PJ never seen there
Had to share this- just too funny!
What's next?
GLTA the longs everywhere
At-home urine test may allow for earlier lupus nephritis diagnosis
https://lupusnewstoday.com/news/home-urine-test-may-help-diagnose-monitor-lupus-nephritis/?utm_source=LUP&utm_campaign=59e431dc88-LUP_ENL_3.0_US&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_50dac6e56f-59e431dc88-72286769
Better stick to ocam’s razor.
Even though I hate to shave, I recognize that William of Occam is one of the greatest thinkers of all time, so I appreciate you bringing him up.
An interesting thing to me is that, while developing/constructing "The Law of Parsimony" (Occam's Razor), William utilized the same method that I employ as part of his process.
My experience suggests that it's actually quite complicated to "simplify", at least for some of us.
But you're certainly correct saying the least complicated is generally better.
Nice to see this hidden gem back in play.
Thanks for your feedback Jess, as always.
Good luck to the longs everywhere
cheers
I always benefit from looking at both (or more) sides of the argument
Hashing it out, mulling it over, whatever you call it, it gives you a bigger perspective.
Maybe not a full 360 degree view, but certainly looking at, pondering, etc. multiple sides is a valuable exercise in itself.
An added bonus is very few fist fights.
cheers!