watching biotechs, gold & silver
Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
Isn't it too late for tax loss selling?
Doesn't it take 3 days for the sale to clear or ?
TIA for any clarification
What a mystery this one is
cheers
From today's edition of Real Money:
AUPH down 30%. AUPH is a classic example of a stock with good news but not yet appreciated by the market. It made substantial progress in the development of its drug for the treatment of lupus nephritis but the market is waiting for FDA approval which is expected in late January. I believe this stock will see increased interest as the FDA decision approaches.
https://realmoney.thestreet.com/investing/my-top-six-2020-stock-picks-gained-an-average-of-75--15527044
Re HEPA: CEO was founder of Isotechnika.
Does it bother you that Foster was a key player in the thwarted Iljin coup attempt?
Do you trust him?
TIA
ever since we hit the 20's we have fallen
'Greenleaf'? More like Redleaf. When you look at the quality of some of these companies that have tripled or more this year, it's kind of hard to believe this stock's performance.
At least we'll know more by January 22
Happy New Year to all anyway,
cheers
Correction: Management rewarded insiders with another avalanche of free shares a day or two ago.
It was an avalanche of free options.
Need to edit those late night posts.
To Gratefully quote the Dead: What a long strange trip its been
GLTA
I guess more than likely it's Iljin
They're not done punishing us for not supporting their coup attempt.
Here's the Korean description of 'Iljin':
Iljin is a tough word to define, its more of a concept.
It used to be used exclusively for gangsters mobsters and meant "first team" aka the gang's best fighter. Now, it is used more frequently to refer to a school’s “bad” kids — the ones that are constantly disrupting class, getting in trouble, ditching school, smoking, drinking, etc.
They have consistently adhered to their namesake values. With so many shares they can pretty much wreak whatever havoc they want, at least in the short term.
Are they done stealing shares from the weak yet? Apparently not.
Some of their criticisms actually seem at least somewhat valid. Management rewarded insiders with another avalanche of free shares a day or two ago.
The much-feared and equally hated Adam Feuerstein still likes Aurinia
Still, Feuerstein’s faith in small-cap biotechs isn’t completely shaken. Aurinia Pharmaceuticals Inc
AUPH 5.51%
, for example, earned his esteem for positive management performance.
https://www.benzinga.com/general/biotech/17/04/9265444/adam-feuerstein-sees-major-price-manipulation-in-small-cap-pharma-stoc
DES not dead? AUPH files patent lawsuit
AURINIA PHARMACEUTICALS INC. v. SUN PHARMACEUTICAL INDUSTRIES, INC. et al
3:20-cv-19805 Filed: 12/18/2020 Case Updated Daily Latest Docket Entry: 12/21/2020
https://insight.rpxcorp.com/litigation/njdce-455755-aurinia-pharmaceuticals-inc-v-sun-pharmaceutical-industries-inc-et-al
https://insight.rpxcorp.com/litigation_documents/14056062
Don't we have a patent attorney on this board?
If so, what is your take?
TIA
And to you and yours as well.
Happy New Year to all!
Thx- Also, congrats on making your astute & timely 'boat load' trade.
It's interesting that George couldn't resist- maybe it was mostly for show but $262K isn't exactly small change.
On second thought, maybe to him it is! If so, must be nice!
cheers
The Chairman of Aurinia Pharmaceuticals (AUPH) is Buying Shares
2 day old news but some good context:
https://www.smarteranalyst.com/new-blurbs/the-chairman-of-aurinia-pharmaceuticals-auph-is-buying-shares/
Aurinia’s only project is due in front of the FDA.......
https://www.evaluate.com/vantage/articles/events/company-events/go-or-no-go-new-year-approval-decisions-us-regulators
The article cites every near term 'competitor'. These so-called 'competitors' are all garbage compared to voclosporin and I would think if any doctor prescribed them as a first-line ahead of VCS they probably should hang it up and/or maybe lose their license.
Merry Christmas to all
George picked up 20K shares yesterday
Dec 21/20 Dec 21/20 Milne, George m Direct Ownership Common Shares 10 - Acquisition in the public market 20,000 $13.10
USD
Shows some confidence
GLTA
when they sold the foreign rights they made themselves a lot less appealing to major BP companies
Probably not. If you look at the history of pharma selling foreign rights for their drugs, it reveals that deal values for foreign rights go down after P3 approval. Getting a deal done pre-approval looks like a smart move.
I see zero indication Aurinia is pursuing a GIA strategy. I see them trying to maximize their value for a BO. It's impossible for anyone to value VCS without knowing if the label is 2027 or 2037. The value differential is enormous and BP doesn't want to take the big gamble of paying full value for such a huge unknown.
Aurinia is not sitting around on their hands hoping to be sold- they're going full bore ready to take the drug to market on day 1 of approval. The odds are high one or more BP's will want to buy VCS, maybe even GSK since Benlysta is a joke.
How stupid/incompetent is the FDA?
They approve a crap drug for LN instead of VCS.
Comparison of Voclosporin (AUPH) to Benlysta (GSK) for Lupus Nephritis.
19% CRR Voc @ 1.9 weeks, Benlysta takes 40 weeks.
25% CRR Voc @ 84 days, Benlysta takes 1.5 YEARS
50% CRR Voc @ 24 weeks, Benlysta didn't reach 50%.
Voclosporin UPCR <=0.5
Benlysta UPCR <=0.7
Japan requires <=0.5, so zero sales there for Benlysta
You can't even make this stuff up it's so insane or maybe even corrupt.
Merry Christmas to all (or whatever you celebrate- Festivus is the 23rd)
Axl, not hubcap
FYI That study is fake claiming the majority of Covid cases were wearing masks.
FAKE FAKE FAKE FAKE FAKE
Google it
The mask might save your life
Luna moved to Cali a year ago; now moving a little further down the coast to Newport Beach (I think).
He's continuing to crush it in bioland; Luna is easily by far the most successful and brilliant individual investor in that sector I've ever witnessed.
Nice to see you Rip John. Another sign the end game is afoot.
cheers
Apologies slim- I used the wrong numbers. 445,000 is the SLE number and 50% of them will likely develop LN.
The link thesaud posted explains it:
"According to the Lupus Foundation of America, approximately 1.5 million Americans (mostly women) and about 5 million people worldwide have a form of lupus. Aurinia estimates that 445,000 people in the U.S. suffer from SLE. The disease can damage a range of tissues and organ systems, particularly the kidneys to become LN. LN affects up to half of SLE patients, and is a chronic, complex and often disabling disorder, which can lead to end-stage renal disease (ESRD), dialysis, renal transplant, and death."
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4379699-aurinia-pharmaceuticals-down-30-from-high-offers-discounted-de-risked-multi-billion-dollar?source=cnbc
cheers
Probably those rat bastards at ILJIN. It's the 1 year anniversary of the BS they pulled last year.
If you wonder why a multi-billion $ Korean company would behave so atrociously, consider their name, which translates into "bully" in Korean.
I'm guessing Dr. Glickman didn't take his shoes off when he visited one of the bigwigs at their home in Korea.
cheers
"....she thought my 80 to 100K was low."
You're way low. Your wife was right. If you do the math, you'll discover the 445,000+ number that Aurinia is using in their corporate presentations is the correct number of candidates for VCS (voclosporin).
The 445,000 is the number that will develop LN.
cheers
Aurinia Pharmaceuticals Announces Launch of Lupus Nephritis Disease-State Awareness Initiative for Healthcare Professionals, TimeIsNephrons.com
https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20201014005164/en/
https://timeisnephrons.com/
Slim, You've probably addressed this, but if you don't mind I'm curious what the stuff looks and tastes like.
Could you re-hash re quality (taste, texture, etc.)?
Also, please comment on price/value equation.
Are there links where people have reviews?
TIA
"....check out SUVRF,it’s doubled since I recommended it...."
Isn't the volume a major problem? Doesn't only a few thousand shares a day mean there is no liquidity?
TIA
For a laugh, read this phony BS story re Benlysta:
"This history-making clinical trial is the first successful study after decades of attempts with other lupus nephritis therapies,"
https://www.drugs.com/news/adding-belimumab-improves-renal-outcome-lupus-nephritis-92812.html
I missed the lack of a rapid steroid taper- wonder if the trial designers didn't appreciate the value of that back in 2012?
The other oddity is that it's a 2 year trial while AURORA is a 1 year. That also seems like a poor design choice as Aurinia stresses that the key with an LN flare is to get the patients into remission (or as close as they can get) as rapidly as possible to prevent kidney damage.
Definitely looking good here- really liking the team, the plan, the execution, etc., etc.
They have an excellent chance to do something really special. Still waiting for the market to recognize that.
Thanks for your input/feedback
The biggest competitive threat Aurinia is concerned about is not Kezar- it's the Benlysta (Belimumab) P3 for LN that will end about the same time as Aurinia's AURORA P3.
"Efficacy and Safety of Belimumab in Patients With Active Lupus Nephritis (BLISS-LN)"
https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT01639339?term=Belimumab&recrs=d&phase=2&rank=1
New CEO Peter Greenleaf revealed that May 22 during the RBC Capital Markets 2019 Healthcare Conference webcast.
If you haven't heard it yet, you can at:
https://ir.auriniapharma.com/ir-calendar/detail/1182/rbc-capital-markets-global-healthcare-conference
There is a lot of real meat (both revealed and hinted at) in it regarding Aurinia's plans going forward.
They are really confident.
Lawsuits started already for KZR:
Pomerantz Law Firm Investigates Claims on Behalf of Investors of Kezar Life Sciences, Inc. - KZR
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/shareholder-alert-pomerantz-law-firm-233121553.html
That was quick.
"This should boost AUPH" (another Lupus flop). Just like the boost I expected based on the excellent VOS DES results.
Why is the opposite so often what actually happens?
cheers
It's interesting how Kezar makes these results sound positive in their PR:
"“Presenting our first in patient data with KZR-616, our novel selective immunoproteasome inhibitor, is an important milestone for Kezar and represents the culmination of several years of our team’s research and development efforts,” said Niti Goel, MD, FACR, Kezar’s Chief Medical Officer. “We are encouraged by the safety, tolerability, and potential efficacy seen thus far in the MISSION trial and look forward to sharing the detailed results with the clinical and scientific community next month. The Phase 2 portion in lupus nephritis patients has commenced enrollment, and we have identified 30 and 45mg as the appropriate doses to advance in each of our Phase 2 autoimmune clinical trials. We expect to initiate trials with KZR-616 in dermatomyositis, polymyositis, autoimmune hemolytic anemia, and immune thrombocytopenia later this year.”"
http://investors.kezarlifesciences.com/news-releases/news-release-details/kezar-life-sciences-announces-acceptance-abstract-presentation
Wonder if Celia misses Aurinia?
"KZR-616: RESULTS FROM THE FIRST 2 COHORTS OF AN OPEN-LABEL PHASE 1B DOSE ESCALATION TRIAL"
Presentation posted to EULAR:
http://scientific.sparx-ip.net/archiveeular/?searchfor=%20KZR-616&c=a&view=1&item=2019FRI0196
Market not impressed- KZR down 40%
This should boost AUPH
"The move has begun........" But which move is it- the real one we're expecting/hoping for so long or another fake out???
Is this simply a run up to the following event Wednesday?
"Mr. Peter Greenleaf, Chief Executive Officer, will present a corporate overview at the RBC Capital Markets Global Healthcare Conference on Wednesday, May 22, 2019"
https://www.dailyamerican.com/news/business/nation/aurinia-pharmaceuticals-to-present-at-the-rbc-capital-markets-global/article_3428df8d-3e16-563e-915a-c96bade63ae2.html
I guess we might have somewhat of an inkling by Friday.
I know the twitter penny flippers want another fade down to the low 6's.
I can see on the chart that the price bounced hard off the 200 day, but I might as well be looking at the leaves in a tea cup to know if it means anything.
The pros and cons of institutional ownership:
https://www.investopedia.com/articles/stocks/07/insitutional-owners.asp
My simple take- if institutions are buying it's good for individual investors since the stock can move up substantially pretty quickly.
The flip side: If they're selling, OUCH!
cheers
Fintel has improved it's ownership report for AUPH
Now has institutions at 46% (they previously excluded the largest holder (Iljin Snt Co., Ltd.) and others.
https://fintel.io/so/us/auph
Hoping it grows to 90% or so, but as long as it trends higher % wise it's healthy for Aurinia.
cheers
Better link to Orbimed holdings (thanks Luna):
https://www.nasdaq.com/quotes/institutional-portfolio/orbimed-advisors-llc-80973
Link to all of Orbimed Advisors holdings:
https://www.holdingschannel.com/all/stocks-held-by-orbimed-advisors-llc/
Luna- thanks much. Orbimed back is definitely an exciting positive. Always nice to see firms of their caliber on board- a good sign for the future here.
Luna re "Orbimed bought 3.1m auph"
Saw that on ST (no link posted) but can't find on Fintel.
??? Do you have the link to the 13F
TIA