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So some pharma or multiple had accumulated 100 million shares of this to help it run up over the last two weeks. They sold a bunch late yesterday to sow doubt and then they started selling again this morning just in case it popped. When it didn’t, they rebought and then sold through the entire presentation to sow doubt shaking out a lot of investors and sending it down to 30 plus cents and they have now re accumulated to keep throwing shade over the stock to keep its value down for months to come.
That's only bad if you were planning on selling tomorrow. I'm not selling any time soon. If they went to the trouble of explaining why they changed all of the parameters, it would be because the changes enabled them to be successful.
There is an alternative to them presenting results data that is not "bad news". It is them presenting all the complexities of the trial that led them to change the SAP to focus on different populations and endpoints. This would be a precursor to them changing the info on the FDA site after which they could publish and present the data in the coming weeks.
Isn't it very possible that Linda uses this presentation to finally explain all the things we know but they haven't explicitly said yet about the trial? Needed to compare to external control, change end points etc, so they made the changes... That would make sense in preparation for announcement of actual results in the near future. Kind of set the table for what is to come before just throwing results all out there with many changes all in a TLD announcement.
Does anyone know how shares are allowed to be traded pre-market for an OTC stock? I thought it wasnt allowed but have watched pre-market trades several times in the last week. Seems like someone is getting a cheat card.
Gary,
Thanks for the thoughtful response.
Cheers
But how can she share anything material next week if they don't publish beforehand? Doesn't that raise questions for you or are you just assuming there will be a publication prior?
Serious question for longs that I know will be uncomfortable for folks to grapple with. How can Linda present any material information in her presentation next week if there is no publication prior? As I understand it, they MUST publish before any other announcements, so I would assume if there is no publication by her talk that we aren't going to hear much....
Wouldn’t they need to get the publication out before Linda’s presentation next week for her to disclose anything materiel? What would it mean if they didn’t publish prior to her presentation?
Much appreciated!
Excellent- Thank YOU!
What is the likelihood that the results of the P3 analysis against an external control arm shows some efficacy only towards a subpopulation to the point where the results are not perceived by the market as strong enough to really increase the share price? If it only works for a specific sub-group and only works sort of well, could that be perceived as a negative signal by the market?
Shame on the people who have constantly casted doubt on NWBO over the past years. First, you argued that this failed years ago. Then you argued that they haven't reported results because the results demonstrate no effectiveness. Then you argued that they can't produce this profitably.
My question is this, if they do publish a paper demonstrating effectiveness and report positive results, do you have the courage to get on here and apologize for all the doubts you casted?
I doubt it. You will arrange a new set of doubts around every next step of this process. You should be absolutely ashamed of yourselves.
What is fuzzy to me is that there is no way they meet their primary endpoint because of the crossover patients. So what exactly does failure mean to make them have to announce failure in 4 days? Taken literally, they failed to meet their primary endpoint, BUT it doesnt mean the drug doesnt work. It means the trial design got trashed.
That is the wrong logic in an event driven process like this. The stock going up or down prior to announcement is meaningless. If you truly believe in it, having the opportunity to add more shares at .88 is a no brainer if additional cash has become available as it positions you for a significantly higher upside if the event outcome is positive. If negative, you lose all your money, but these drops are opportunities to buy for more upside.
I like the optimism! I think you are pretty darned accurate if they release by New Years. Did they really say they thought they would get there by year end? I don't remember when they said that, but it would be a good signal on timing if so.
That's a fair point about the results coming in under the target and you are right that he might as well have a nest egg in the case of less than desirable results.
From December, not in Geert's wildest dreams would we still be waiting on results. My prediction is that results are still far away and possibly even unknown by the company or CRO when they will conclude and that is the primary reason why he raised so much money.
Also, if the results are, as you said decent, but not quite there, CVM will then be under a lot of pressure to not just announce results but back them up soon after with a full peer reviewed publication. We all know that a full publication will add many months to the process. You should refer to Goldies old post that the AVERAGE time for publication is a year.
So I assume you fully believe that they will announce results in the next 11 days? The nice part is that someone is right here and someone is wrong and we will know in less than two weeks. I predict no announcement in the next two weeks...
We will find out in 2 weeks!!!!
Huge flaw in Sushi and Fosco's logic of July 1. Why would Geert raise $30 million 3 weeks before announcing results at a valuation of 1/5 of what it will be post results? Geert raised that much money because, as he says he is mitigating risk and covid has thrown a massive wrench into any predictability on when results will be announced. Them setting the ASM on July 1 is totally meaningless and the fact that impatient shareholders will be mad about it just is irrelevant. I am calling it now that Sushi and FOSCO are dead wrong that we are anywhere near announcement of results... Think late fall.
Sorry to ask again- can someone post the link to the ASM this afternoon and also when it is supposed to start? Much appreciated!!!
Is it not weird to think that we are all sitting on an investment that is worth 1.41 per share today and will be worth over 5.50 within 31 days? It is so rare to have a stock where all the indicators point to success, a stock with serious action that it pretty much time boxed based on many events that are happening in real time every day.
Do you have courage and conviction? Have you looked at the evidence? Did you do your research?
Here are some quotes from Peter Lynch. Not all his quotes apply to this particular situation, but some do and I cherry picked the ones that apply here.
“The trick is not to learn to trust your gut feelings, but rather to discipline yourself to ignore them. Stand by your stocks as long as the fundamental story of the company hasn’t changed.”
“Know what you own, and know why you own it”
“People who succeed in the stock market also accept periodic losses, setbacks, and unexpected occurrences. Calamitous drops do not scare them out of the game.”
“Big companies have small moves, small companies have big moves.”
“Remember, things are never clear until it’s too late.”
Is everyone in agreement that the highest likelihood is TLD announcement on June 4 or 7? It would seem very strange if they went past that date with still no news. It would mean that the meeting on May 18 is not really all the material.
Ha! NWBO was also at the end of Phase II- A DECADE AGO!!! See them in 2030...
For them to answer would infer trial success because if they were unblinded and they didn't yet announce trial failure yet, that would mean their drug is successful. No way they would tell us on this. It is way too material based on where they are.
You make it out like it would be a simple answer, but it would actually be the biggest tell of all.
I am not clear on how you believe the primary or secondary will be successful as she explained that the primary is very confounding and the secondary is polluted hence the requested change.
To me this is much more messy and complicated than one would hope. I wonder how the announcement of results will come off?
The primary was not really effectively measurable. The secondary was confounded and therefore a different approach for measurement was needed and hence they asked for changes and received positive feedback from the health authorities, but won't it leave the announcement of results very confusing for people? It clearly wont be clean and definitive. It will be more like, we didnt meet the original trail endpoints, however we can demonstrate a clear survival benefit and we hope that folks agree that the benefit is worth carrying this forward? Hopefully???
Am I wrong that slides 11 and 12 are the nail in the coffin for people who try to say DCVAX doesn't work to stop tumors in their tracks at least for part of the population?
Isn't it shown in the imaging in black and white (literally???). I know that there are both early results as well as many circumstantial cases of people surviving demonstrated through time. But what else could cause the tumor stagnate like that by 236 days in?
Resurfacing this one too which just has amazing nuggets in it. Thanks Survivor!!!
https://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=162544544
I have heard so many people say. "Don't invest based on what you read on a message board!" To me that is really narrow minded. I have made more money by judiciously reading research on message boards by super smart people who put a lot of thought and hours into creatively finding every piece of relevant information they can.
The problem here for the shorts is that with all this evidence, their claims become flimsier and flimsier. They are now down to saying "Why has it taken so long? There must be something wrong!"
Whereas I would argue, "we are lucky this is taking so long! It gives us the opportunity to maximize our financial leverage as more and more confirming information comes in." My position has continued to build here to just a game changing level when they announce results. It will be enough to sell some during the initial pop and hold a lot for long term gains after.
Thank You! That is awesome- OS is now primary and PFS is secondary. Why in the world would they have changed the endpoints if they didn't see that it would more effectively reveal the most important merits of the drug. ALL IN.
To me, the biggest tell of all is that the UK and? Germany changed the primary indication to OS. I was looking back to try to find the links showing the change. Does anyone have those links again? Much appreciated!
Overweight is the way to be on this. You can make money by slowly growing wealth through conservative investments over long periods of time, or you can find opportunities like this and look at all the indicators and you can choose throw down serious coin. The payoff could well be millions on this if you have the courage to stick it through. Too many people get emotional for the wrong reasons and run away in the face of risk.
Many of them just lack the experience of having been heavily invested in late stage small med stock with a winning drug before and get skittish. Time delays are totally par for the course on these types of companies and should not have any impact on the true overall value of your investment other than delayed gratification, something many folks just can't handle.
Given that the NWBO team took another loan completed only on March 1, I would assume they would have waited to take that loan until the results were announced if the results were imminent. Do folks agree that the fact that they took the loan now probably means they are still a month or more out from reporting results?
I tried to buy at 1.06 and all the way up and it would not take my trades even though I put in above ask- there is some shenanigans going on here.
And finally, I don't see how investment managers would have financed this operation with only a few months to announce full results without a high level of confidence that the results were good...
Imagine if you were the dudes who provided capital for these guys when they were sitting on a failed product...
The Company entered into this 21-month Note (the "Loan") on August 17, 2020 for $5,505,000 at an 8% annualized interest rate, with no payments due for the first 7 months. Prepayment of the Loan can be made at any time with a 15% prepayment penalty. If the Loan remains outstanding past month 8, it will be amortized through month 21 with monthly payments of 110% of 14 equal monthly principal payments. The note also includes a $500,000 original issue discount. The lender is Iliad Research and Trading, LP.
BETHESDA, Md., Aug. 11, 2020 /PRNewswire/ -- Northwest Biotherapeutics (OTCQB: NWBO)("NW Bio"), a biotechnology company developing DCVax® personalized immune therapies for solid tumor cancers, today announced that the Company has completed a financing on favorable terms for approximately $8 million. The Company anticipates that this financing will help maintain the Company's momentum, and will provide some prudent protection in the midst of the current global economic uncertainties. The financing also further broadens the lock-up of warrants that the Company has been building.
I also don't see how this team from Flashworks would all come over to work for NWBO to have a complete collapse of the company several months later with poor results...
At worst the results are in between with further detail needing to be communicated in a full publication.
Flaskworks was previously owned by its technical founders and Corning Incorporated. The technical team from Flaskworks has joined NW Bio as part of the acquisition.
The Flaskworks system is designed to fundamentally change the manufacturing process from artisan hand work to assembly line-like automation. As such, the Flaskworks system is designed to enable the scale-up to far greater production volumes. Technicians will oversee the automated systems (potentially multiple systems per technician) rather than making the products themselves.
The buildout of the Sawston, UK facility has purposely been designed to proceed in phases, as modules, both for efficiency in the timing of capital costs and to allow flexibility in operations and usage. Implementation of the Flaskworks system will enable certain phases of the buildout to be simplified and streamlined.
I just don't see how the NWBO team could have known that they were sitting on a failure by now and that DI would respond to 10B that way. In the worst possible case at this point, the results are not definitive for primary, but they have sufficiently promising findings on primary and or secondary to publish the full data. If the results are in between, the question is how will the market take it?