Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
TKM-EBOV vs ZMapp
Dirk's tweet re ZMapp study and something to remember.
Zmapp #Ebola study. Looks quite good. 5 vs 3 days for TKM-Ebola. Though monkeys infected w/ only half dose cf TKM-Ebola studies. $TKMR
NIH data sharing decision positive for RNAi.
http://finance.boston.com/boston/news/read/26081521/nih_data_sharing_projects_could_accelerate_rnai_field
Investor attention has in fact been reignited in field,see alny/arwr pps appreciation and to much lesser extent tkmr.arwr has garnered respected institutional sponsorship from Baker Bros and ALNY from FIDO,with each of above named companies cashed up from 2013 raises.
be da-n careful...i believe OS are 490mm
.056 cash now + CVR with potential value of .40 +(not sure exact share count 195mm divided by OS) soooo total compensation somewhere between .45-.50/share this is my take
100%+ upside from these levels if willing to wait on CVR
They have a 500mm market cap and 160mm+ in cash and a pipeline that c/b valued(per analysts)at 3B assuming commercialization and clinical success.
Would think they could put together $200-$250mm offer.
The glass full side of me...
w/h expected news of another preferred financing/draw down to come at Q end 6/30--I know we are not that far removed from that date,however, the longer it takes for them to publicly explain extended financing terms, the more likely they have some kind of commercialization/acquisition deal coming in near term,imo.
Per CC they need to finance/raise in May.
I'll admit that I'm searching for any timing guidance, but it's possible that they'll want to get a corporate transaction done before raising funds.
If not and they proceed with another preferred share raise , I'll hope for a tiny raise thereby suggesting a near term BD.
Very encouraging.
Interest since September,retainer of Goldman earlier this year and now guidance that launch will not occur until transaction finalized...while partnership yields more longer term value for us,I think it is fairly evident that an acquisition is being finalized and this CC was forced by SEC Q end rpting rules.They aren't even posturing any more by saying they might launch...i suspect the terms are all but agreed to and buyout news comes soon.Issue w/b price...can they get $500mm+.I think we will know soon.
Agree and GL to us all.
Given the lack of announcement to date I am expecting a Q end CC with favorable deal guidance...'GS remains engaged,while there can be no outcome guarantee,we have several interested parties and are working toward finalizing a transaction(s) for the benefit of the Company,SHs and patients.If/when such a transaction is finalized an announcement will be promptly made.'
thanks,is that guidance from IR? If so then it would appear news is imminent or the Goldman Sachs process remains active...otherwise,no reason to remain quiet.
1st day of Q2 = partner's choice of time to announce BD?
ok i get it biorecruit...yes we are not breaking out above .70.
let's put it this way, there has been no significant selling since the CC announcement.If they were going to kick the can down the road wouldn't you have expected some volume selling?
Also any time it hits .61/.62 someone clears out supply which to me suggests some appetite for the stock at that level.
Hmmm
Despite our somewhat critical view of what will come out of the upcoming CC there has been little selling since its announcement and I actually am seeing some careful accumulation.Perhaps we are being too pessimistic?
and they haven't hired a sales force yet because any partner/acquirer would want Marqibo with a clean marketing/sales slate...hence the current purgatory.
On the sales front--worst case(no partner/no acquisition),couldn't tlon go with a CSO vs in-house?
Agree,but not convinced angry callers if no announcement.
If something is finalized on pship/acquisition front,they'll certainly announce prior to CC on April Fool's Day ;)
Isn't it also likely that this 'announcement' is an effort to communicate to frustrated SHs that q1 report w/b coming in couple weeks.Also, at time of CC the 'business update' may simply be-- we are in active discussions presently on several fronts and will report immediately if/when something is finalized.
I'm just not convinced we can read too much into this from a strategic BD perspective.
Assumptions?
Not so sure we can assume much of anything.
There also c/h/b inquiries that the BOD determined insufficient,hence Goldman's retainer.Whether tlon is negotiating from position of strength or not is unclear given absolutely no sense of discussions.
The one certainty is that the 2 major SHs want to explore a sale or substantive pship and have consequently pushed for Goldman's involvement.
Guess we'll know when we know.
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/gallery.html?tlon
look at the bid at .63 for past couple weeks on daily...someone has set up a floor at that price.
Volume
It's only two sessions,but we've caught an interesting bid as someone just took almost 100,000 shares in the .63-.65 range after Friday's share grab in the low 60s...someone thinks news is coming.
I am a newbie and have accumulated 46,600 shares with a low .60s cost.
Guess the risk here is no buyer or partner found and they dilute to raise $$ to market Marqibo themselves...but at a 115mm market cap presently with Goldman,Deerfield,Warburg actively looking for a liquidity event, I like my chances of higher prices short term...if not I'll average down and await sales execution and addt'l trial results.
Are you folks all sitting on cost basis in the 40-50 range? Fighting the urge to be too aggressive here in the low 60s,but seems like a good risk-reward.
Rather wouldn't it suggest they are marketing it themselves?What is the Company's guidance in that respect please? ie,if no buyer would you expect them to definitively out-license given their lack of cash or might they take a run at marketing themselves...
The article is accurate,although it clearly contains royalty/sales assumptions that are speculative.TKM is grossly undervalued(70mm) as the #2 RNAi player,behind alny(1B+) and it's 50mm cash($3.80/share) on BS and tight 14mm float,plk heading to ph2,expedited Ebola K with Gov't,strong IP,etc...
I began buying tlon when tkm suggested that it's royalty interest in Marqibo C/B monetized for $10s of millions.No one is assigning any value to tkm beyond its cash much less its royalty interest in Marqibo.If,however,Goldman finds a buyer it would seem very possible that the buyer will want to also purchase back tkm's royalty interest,imo.
I see the GS retainer as a win-win for tlon. At the current market cap of around 115mm I think there's nice upside whether Goldman produces a buyer or partner.Deerfield,etc... seem highly motivated and now officers have their pockets lined with options. Not sure of value,but wouldn't 200mm seem a bare minimum if company sold?
Love the info you guys find esp the BCBS nugget...consider dumping some of your eventual tlon winnings into tkm in advance of ACCR/ASCO and anticipated move of PLK into ph2.
Not sure if immediately accelerated and exercisable in event of acquisition, which would suggest high likelihood of sale.
A point I find intriguing is that we have not seen a marketing plan for Marqibo...presumably because any acquirer would want to have a clean commercialization slate.
Whether Company sold, partner found for Marqibo or commercialization begins,this stock s/b above the current $115mm market cap,imo.
How can you bet against Deerfield,etc... the largest holders who are clearly motivated toward a liquidity event?
Re:SRPT and TKMR. DOD Ebola Contract Decision.
Tekmira Program selected for continuation over SRPT.
http://www.heraldonline.com/2012/10/02/4308549/jpm-tmt-announces-down-selection.html
Approvable
respectfully...it is an approvable letter so they have not yet secured approval,but yes,it is good news from the perspective of they finally have a defined path to approval which s/b of benefit to us next year.
TA
Very bullish pattern developing.Following the Gap up in the high 60s with steadily increasing buy volume well above above the gap and all occurring as we build the right side of a handle.Get up to 1.26 and break out into clear sky above with approvals coming through year end and who knows how far she'll move.
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/gallery.html?vrs.v
FO Lockup Expiration
Look back at the last financing at .40,they locked them up until aug 15...some participants obviously decided to lock in gains...not a shocker in this market,but I suspect there were some institutions waiting on the buy side for this expected supply. 50dma is around .50
RPTP...mathematical error reqs.addt'l ph3 enrollment.
Unprecedented in my investing life.This Company indicated that following enrollment close of their ph3 dispositive trial last month a mathematical error was found in calculating intra-patient variance.Trial requires additional 5 patients.
*ttp://finance.yahoo.com/news/Raptor-Pharmaceutical-to-pz-267467134.html?x=0&.v=1
True mathematical error?
Tekmira Halted
RNAi delivery partner of ALNY...if bid is coming should energize the entire RNAi sector which has been languishing as alny's involvement in IP litigation and failure to strike NVS-like follow on deals has lingered. http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Investment-Industry-cnw-2184131251.html?x=0&.v=3
Tekmira-lipid siRNA delivery viral application Ebola
http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736%2810%2960357-1/fulltext
ABT+FACT...TRBN
Prior to acquisition FACT entered into a partnership with TRBN for TRU-16.Nonrefundable milestone and equity investment made at the time presumably as an attempt to thwart BIIB acquisition in the teens.Deal has a $10mm 18 month termination fee if FACT or acquiree terminates w/i timeframe.ABT today included a slide reference to the trbn program at Cowen pg 9.
**tp://tinyurl.com/yfgfno5
TRBN's other significant programs were partnered with WYE at time of its acquisition by PFE.PFE has since reaffirmed/assumed those collaborative agreements.
Trbn has about $3/sh cash,manageable burn because of the foregoing and has some early validation from some solid Co's wye,fact,pfe...perhaps ABT.Anyone familiar with the promise or lack thereof of their SMIP platform from a scientific perspective?
Omapro ODAC Feb. 10
http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20091217/pdf/31msr2ywp19kws.pdf
ODAC Feb. 10
No Financing...February ODAC.
Feb ODAC expected with date likely TBA in near term;milestones in coming months have eliminated need for financing near term-focus w/b on launch to 36 key US Cancer Centers 'upon/if' approval; several Cos were involved in DD with Chemgenex for Omapro EU rts-HSP is making Omapro a feature/focus of emerging oncology line;Approval expected by early March;details of commercialization plan coming in Q1.
Omapro 18mm upfront for EU+
rkw was correct about uninspiring EU license terms
http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20091214/pdf/31mq3lx1l55q3c.pdf
Hospira Omapro EU Partner
Teleconf. tomorrow presumably with detailed terms release..odd that they announce CC first?
http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20091214/pdf/31mq857pt9bhsc.pdf
ASH Data-Bloomberg Article
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601081&sid=a2UITb0CO2dU
CEO Loaded With Additional Options
http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20091203/pdf/31mjmjnntk1q1p.pdf
with these 2mm he now has almost 7mm
Aria-Chemgenex(CML 3151)
Omapro EU commercialization and development deal by Chemgenex within the next three weeks should offer a guide as to the value Pharma places on the CML T315I mutation market albeit in the ltd. EU market...perhaps ARIA has been awaiting those terms before striking an earlier stage deal.
No Chemgenex job postings
Why aren't they hiring with priority review and PDUFA in early March if they TRULY intend to launch themselves in US?
http://www.chemgenex.com/wt/page/openings
Four months until possible approval and no hiring...I think the promised EU deal before year end could morph into a company buyout or US Deal,if not I will question Omapro's commercial prospects as I do not see Pharma allowing a commercially promising oncologic to be brought here to market by a tiny Australian firm.
Omapro vs 534
The early 534 data is good,but will be easier to evaluate when they have more patients. The Cytogenic responses are not great.
I'd also add that MDs may be inclined to utilize a unique MOA product/non-TKI(Omapro) rather than a 4th or 5th TKI like 534.
Let's see what Omapro's ASH data set is as well.
Unfortunately,I'd suspect resistance will develop in time with either product.