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Got it. So it's referring to product density and how many will sit on a wafer?
First time long time
Just opened a position last week and am excited to see what the future holds.
Slide 41 of the Photonic Integration deck has a roadmap for the different technologies. Contained on the roadmap are "100 devices," "1000 devices," etc.
What does this count mean? Is it production volume, the number of distinct devices\SKUs utilizing the technology or something else?
Probably more of the same but there are no new shells to speak of at the moment AFAIK. They are rapidly closing out the shells that they had so I would expect to see some movement on new shells in the next couple of months.
I am also curious if the proposed SEC rule changes with regards to Pink No Info and shells affects their ability to do business at all.
All valid points. We aren't even trading at 1x expected revenues at the moment.
I said it last night in a comment on Stocktwits..... I hope we have "disappointing" Q2/Q3 and then a $200M Q4. My reasoning is that a $200M Q4 more easily lends itself to a big YoY increase. If we have $100M and then incremental increases for Q3 and Q4 we might be lucky to get a 5-600M projection for 2022.
If we have slower Q2/Q3 and then a $200M Q4 it wouldn't be a shock if they said "we're going to do $0.8-1B in sales for 2022."
You are correct but $325k isn't all that much money for a company when you stop and think about it. I don't know much about the fees paid to other custodians but $325k sounds like a heck of a bargain for what the purchasing company walks away with at the end of the day.
Also - I think KAVL (another Moody play) merged in rather quickly but then nothing happened for the better part of a year IIRC.
I think there has to be some sort of public notice on both fronts so I don't believe we will just wake up one morning and things happened.
$G-BOX is an example of a company that did a R/S, Uplist, and raise all within a day or so of one another. Focus on process and steps rather than outcome since they are vastly different companies.
~$67 by my calculations.
She was an independent director.
She got a small stipend and options. This was not a professional services relationship where she consulted on some things and parted ways when the job was done.
Something happened to cause her to leave. Maybe it was a family emergency, maybe it was another opportunity that would have presented a conflict of interest, maybe she didn't like what she saw when she looked behind the curtain.
I'm not saying this is problematic but there are a lot of "What-Ifs" and opening up the European market does not strike me as a likely reason.
Without guidance for the rest of the year I think 60-70M is going to give people pause. It will be difficult to envision them averaging 150M/Q for Q3 and Q4 when they haven't cracked 100M in a Q.
They haven't given me a reason to doubt they won't hit their $400M target but I think it will be difficult for some to continue believing.
Seems the "market seller" hypothesis may have been correct. Nice little rebound.
I approve of these events.
Was waiting for money to clear when SENY ran this week. Was conflicted at buying at .15/16 after such a big run. Happy to purchase more at .12 since I don't think I'll get a crack at sub-dime again.
I agree.
I hope we are closer to $100 but I’m tempering my expectations.
One thing that hasn’t really been discussed though is the ramp to those revs.
Everyone kind of assumed it would be a gentle improvement QQ. What if with international expansion starting of end of year they were anticipating a more aggressive ramp end of year? Finish of the year with a $200M Q4.
Also - What if Daiello's speculation is correct?
We get on NASDAQ, raise the $50M mentioned in the patent agreement, then turn around and buy BIDI for a song with the remaining $48M..... Surely owning BIDI would do more for PPS than up-listing organically.
Yes. We all speculate that a couple good Q's would make this run. There are a handful of things that go into the "caution" column that may explain why this stock doesn't sustain a higher PPS.
As I stated, I would prefer to see it happen organically as well. I just don't want to spend the better part of the next year watching a "maybe" play out. If it was guaranteed that it would happen after reporting Q2 and Q3 I would be all for waiting but it isn't.
You can be long and prefer to avoid adding another 6-9 months to your time horizon. It's nothing more than speculation that we will get the price we need after solid quarters.
I would prefer to see it happen organically but I want the share price as high as possible NOW not later. It may seem impatient but "bird in hand."
No telling what the future holds. While I'm long I would certainly appreciate the opportunity to de-risk my position and book some profits.
Patience......
In the past there was a pretty steady occurrence of someone dropping 20-40k shares as a market sell. Buying that many shares at market is great for shareholders and suicide for your cost basis right now. You basically need to limp into your position a little at a time.
With the way this has traded recently though.... Parking 50-100K on the bid at a reasonable price is likely to get filled. If someone put up a 100k "good til filled" order in 1.30's I'm pretty confident it would get filled given a couple days without any news.
Are you high? Plenty of discussion around the R/S.
Makes perfect sense.
Only 2% of the “offering” would be to it towards the patent payment.
The big question is BIDI’s valuation and what they’d be willing to let it go for. It’s also a chicken vs. egg scenario. Is BIDI worth as much without KAVL distribution? I know there is a patent or two involved in the mouthpiece but I have to imagine there isn’t really something inherently “proprietary” to BIDI’s product.
Maybe I’m off base and BIDI isn’t worth that much on it’s own. I would love to be proven wrong if there is a chance for KAVL to acquire BIDI at an attractive price. My current thinking, however, doesn’t allow me to see us getting it for less than a few hundred million
I'm interested in how this would affect custodian shells.
They differ from traditional SPAC's because there is no IPO and no warrants associated with them (for Moody/Denunzio anyway). Their game plan is to find defunct companies, clean them up, then transfer everything to the merging company for a fixed fee.
Didn't respond to this part.
KAVL has exclusive worldwide distribution rights for all BIDI products. We know exactly what BIDI's revenue is. You are correct that we don't know what their margin is.
So what do you think BIDI would be worth in $'s? I would imagine it to be some low multiple (2-5) of revenue at a minimum.
Personally, I'm struggling to imagine how a deal would work that doesn't significantly boost topline revenue or net income. I think the street would be skittish if the majority shareholder in a public company singlehandedly approves a deal to buy their own private company (Stock or cash) if it doesn't significantly boost revenues.
**DONS PRAGMATIC HAT***
I like the 10 year exclusive term and think it is a great move to assuage some concerns shareholders may have about "what if BIDI goes somewhere else?"
Personally I never thought this was a valid concern because it would instantaneously devalue every share that Niraj and Eric control and would be a pointless choice. They would be unable to find a distribution partner that could compensate them for the market cap that would be lost by going another direction.
Right of first refusal clause.......
While it looks great on paper I struggle to envision how KAVL could purchase Bidi. I would assume that Bidi's fair market value would fall somewhere between 50%-80% of KAVL's market cap (assuming KAVL is only distributing BIDI products at time of purchase).
How would a company undertake M&A activities with another organization of similar value that does not provide any increase in top-line revenue? They would likely realize improved net income from vertical integration but it would be marginal/incremental.
Would love to hear other well considered thoughts on this.
Unfortunately, it's been thin for a while. We need volume. Until that happens volatile swings are here to stay.
Check out the growth opportunities slide near the end of the deck.
CBD!!
Everyone universally hates regulation. However, once an entity becomes a dominant force they love regulation as they can now shoulder the burden but it also stifles competition.
At least we know where those cash bonuses are going now.
Hope we get a little bounce off this news tomorrow and some more aggressive buying heading into the investor call.
God damnit KAVL! How am I supposed to get anything done when you're ripping all week long.
Pros\Cons on each side all colored by everyone's individual experiences.
Unfortunately I think there is always going to be a layer of opacity that drives us bonkers. Still think we are going to make a bunch of money regardless of the path that is taken.
I tend to agree with Berd and believe we could hit our target after they deliver a couple $100M quarters.
I also see the benefit of getting onto NASDAQ rapidly.
The one thing we need to think about is opportunity cost. What do we potentially miss out on by delaying up-listing by 6, 9, 12+ months?
Right now the stock market is frothy and there is a lot of liquidity in capital markets (if we needed to take on debt).
A lot can happen in the time it would take to up-list organically. FDA could deliver an adverse opinion, COVID could take a turn for the worse bringing down economies or some other unknown outcome occurs.
If they have a path forward in the near term they likely need to take it because the near term has more certainty. The longer we wait the more chances there are for something to go wrong.
What a day!
Another slow steady grind upwards all day without any crazy volume. Can't wait to see what happens when a catalyst drops and gets people waiting on the sidelines pumped up.
My only concern with a R/S is a small float getting smaller and what kind of impact that would have, if any.
Mentioned it on Stocktwits but I would be fine with a 3:1 @ ~$3. Would bump us to $9 pps and put some comfortable distance between us and NASDAQ minimum.
I don't think we get that kind of news.
They either uplist organically or we R/S. They aren't going to remove an option from the deck now that they have it.
Loving the action over the last week. Great upward movement with relatively weak volume.
I like what I'm seeing.
115K volume, slow and steady grind all day to a 10% gain.
Not sure about anyone else but I really like what's happening the last 4 sessions. No crazy volume/interest just a controlled march upwards.
Gotta get through their ask to move up.... Everyone's playing their own game and we'll drive ourselves nuts trying to figure out each and every "why."
Someone swing trading for 60% in a week. That or someone with weak hands that got spooked by the 60% decline in a month and sees an opportunity to break even.