GROY making the next move higher after consolidating around the $2 range. Great fundamentals to match the technicals!

As a gold price update, ETF outflows have now stopped. That is the next leg of support for this rally. Central Banks continue to buy (although at lower volumes). Will speculative fever come into the market while supply is limited? I would prefer slow and steady, but some follow through by the miners and royalty players seems like the next rotation. M&A should pick up in the industry.
GROY has consolidated and technically looks ripe for another 25%+ leg up. Cote Mine is now operational and commercial volumes expected to commence in Q3.
Cote First Pour

Interesting that Gold is getting little love from investors as we hit all time highs.

ETF outflows are offset by increased Central Bank purchases and physical OTC market. With an emerging India, jewelry demand there is expected to rebound sharply. Add in a possible weakening dollar and geopolitical turmoil and the cake is baked. $2,600/Oz looks like a good target.
2024 Gold demand

My GROY holding now trades at ~0.68X asset value with cash flow catalysts pending. The comp group trades at 1.1X right now. While I expect some consolidation of physical gold prices and GROY stock price around this $2 level, I like the risk/reward.

In a world where people are crafting whatever "factual" baseline they choose to support their intellectual position, it is nice to see the difference in presentation as nuance.
WSJ points out the actual growth forecast in LNG demand from China, and Bloomberg points out that the forecast has reduced from prior indications due to decarbonization efforts. The positions reflect editorial positioning (bias?), but get the underlying facts correct.

I would think American Rare Earths is the better play versus TMC.
Their holdings include a slug of Wyoming State Acreage that should see expedited permitting versus federal lands (which include offshore seabeds, yes?). If the Supreme Court strikes down most of the Federal agency regulatory authority as expected, this could change. Environmental protections are way too complex for Congress to spell out in passed laws, yet that's what conservative jurists are demanding.
The bottleneck for rare earths is domestic processing capacity. An inherently dirty business. I have not done a deep dive into progress made on this front.
But very exciting news from both a national security and clean tech perspective!
Investment worthy? Hard to say. Speculative for sure...

There's the breakout in GROY!
Going to need to consolidate these gains around the 200 day MA. Next fundamental catalyst is likely Cote Mine becoming operational and then Q4 2023 earnings.
As royalty revenues ramp the question becomes debt paydown or reinstate the dividend?
They have a very instructive presentation on their website:
GROY Presentation

At least they are dealing with the actual set of facts!!!

GROY is looking really interesting in here. They have made some smart financing moves to add near term cash flows to the story and some developing mines starting/ramping production in early 2024. Royalties and profits interests will flow from these.
Chart is constructive and ripe for a breakout above $1.55. Spot gold hitting all time highs and dollar likely to lose more strength in 2024. I have added substantially to my small position in the past week.

Paramount and Apple are in initial talks to bundle their streaming services.
And the recent 8K regarding change of control payouts for top management means the AAPL buyout thesis is starting to gel.
I have suffered significant paper losses for the whole trip down. Levered up some out of money calls recently (June '24 15 strikes and Jan '26 20 strikes) to utilize some of my tax losses on the stock while keeping my exposure to the thesis robust.
Nice price action today! Would love to recapture the 200 DMA...

So the Bayer collaboration just pivoted from Fibrosis to Oncology after three years of effort. The good news is the milestones are bigger than the prior indication. The bad news seems to be that AI won't be able to tackle some of the hardest diseases like fibrosis effectively. I would like to see a broadening of partners, and clearly so does the street. And while we have funding to get through 2024, we need higher stock prices to effectively raise capital under the current ATM filing.

Everyone will be watching the WH debt ceiling negotiation today for some sign of progress.
Of course there will be none. Brinkmanship is always the play. BUT this time you have MTG and other crazies ready to lay waste to the whole system.
We probably get a continuing resolution to kick the can down the road, but since most are looking for that, there is real potential for a default scenario (or 14th Amendment invocation/lawsuit).
GROY is my hedge into such a scenario. Gold royalty company led by former Goldcorp CEO. Cheapest valuation in the space, and coming off it's lows. I bought last week before the recent pop. Could see $3+ in a debt ceiling kerfuffle. Significant royalty growth after 2026 as projects come online.
Tread carefully these days...

Yes I am still in PARA. It's been painful. but the sums involved are not large.
I think the endgame is AAPL acquiring them for content. Berkshire/Buffet acts as the lubricant for that merger...
$35+ deal price
But I have been wrong to date!
DIS just reorganized their whole streaming division. The industry pressure to grow at any cost is over, and PARA is still gaining new subs and starting to raise prices. We will see if their subs remain sticky into the price increases.

Unfortunately the industry is in such a state of rapid change that betting on the right individual company is hard to do. And I don't follow it closely enough to make some educated guesses. I know for deploying solid state batteries, Daimler Benz was in the lead for the automakers.
I have found that manufacturing in commercial quantities is often the hurdle new advances face. I toured Proterra (Electric Buses) early in their lifecycle. The nanotech battery packs they were trying to use proved uneconomical in commercial quantities. That was 15 years ago. It looks like they went with in-house engineered Li Ion packs these days.
The Chinese are leading the way towards Sodium based batteries for grid applications. They are commercializing as we speak. In the USA we have the lions share of global soda ash mining capacity. Time to play catch up!

TSCO went big into pet offerings along with rural merchandise. That will provide a counter cyclical tailwind. People continue to spend on their pets through good and bad times!

I spend part of my Summers in the lakes region of Maine and have been aghast at the hypocrisy and NIMBYism surrounding this transmission project and community solar proposals around the area. Unless you are in the air, you do not notice the transmission line corridors running through the forests once you are 200 feet away. Multiple ones already exist.
Glad the State Supreme Court moved on this. Quebec Hydro has some legacy issues with treatment of First Nation rights in James Bay, but this is a huge source of clean power for a dense population base. And growing Southern Maine (also known as MA North) benefits as well.

ALVOF is hitting it's stride these days. In spite of some disappointing drilling in 2022, the company increased production and 2P reserves, paid off ALL debt, and is returning cash to investors at a furious pace while organically funding the next leg of growth. The upcoming dividend is $0.14/share ($0.56/share annualized). That's more than a 10% yield at current prices. I am most excited about the share repurchase program, as it will provide much needed liquidity in the market. The stock remains fundamentally cheap.

President & CEO, Corey C. Ruttan commented:

"We are very pleased with our 2022 results, from revenues of $63.5 million we generated $49.9 million of funds flow from operations and net income of $31.7 million, increases of 82%, 102% and 467% respectively, year over year. This represents industry leading operating netback margins underpinning our disciplined capital allocation model that balances organic growth and stakeholder returns. Since commencing production from our Caburé project in 2020, we have repaid all outstanding debt and today's announcement represents the third increase in our quarterly dividend since Q1 2022. With this, we will have already returned $22 million ($0.62/share) to shareholders in the form of dividends. We are also firmly focused on our next phase of growth and are looking forward to an exciting 2023 capital program."

I think he said 800 HP?
We didn't stop at 60 mph when he showed off the acceleration onto the highway...
The integrated glass roof/windshield only runs $4K to replace, and driving anywhere in the Rockies is asking for a rock to crack your glass!
Form before function.

Solid state battery technology is the next evolution. Pretty sure Daimler is currently in the lead, but with so much brainpower and money getting thrown at the problem, I expect economic/commercial viability to surprise to the upside like so many other technologies of past. More compact units and they don't catch on fire when compromised.

EV's may not be the standalone "solution", but they will be a major piece of the puzzle. My buddy's Lucid Air (400 mile range) can get from Ft Collins to Vail and back roundtrip for a $7 single charge. Talk about efficiency for a 4 hr drive over multiple mountain passes. That drive would cost me $32 in my Lexus RX 350.

It's only going to get better and more affordable for the masses...

This is the key takeaway from that article:
The repetitive buying isn’t all bad. It’s a validation of the technology, a clear pattern that, when familiar with both options and given the choice, many prefer to drive electric. It also suggests that the typical reservations among the EV-curious — namely range anxiety and charging confusion — fade quickly with use.

We are at the early part of the "S Curve" adoption pattern for EV's. I suspect a very different article will be written in two years as more public charging stations are deployed and more mid priced choices are available from manufacturers.

Alvopetro hits it out of the park with a 50% increase in dividend rate, stock buyback, and superb earnings and operating cash flows! Recent stock overhang from a creditor warrant exercise has pushed the price down the past few months. I have been adding to my position in spite of the low volume.
ALVOF News

Was Spain as dependent as Germany on Nordstream gas flows? Clearly a disconnect between the news that LNG regasification terminals were ramped quickly to satisfy much of the winter demand.
And I am going to Spain for 3 weeks over Christmas/New Years so hopefully there will be enough gas then! Thankfully we are staying south of Madrid...

While I have continued to add to my battered PARA position, Warren Buffet has become the largest shareholder. Bob Bakish just indicated they will follow DIS and NFLX in raising prices for Paramount+.

Hopefully the catalyst to get this train moving in the right direction. Today is a good start.

They have been executing on all fronts and were offering an ad supported streaming tier long before the competition realized this would be a smart move! Yet the analysts have been down on them all year.

Yes macro headwinds will show themselves, but valuation probably discounts any transient effects.

I still think the natural deal is AAPL buying them. Shari Redstone doesn't carry her dad's ego invested in building the company. Might make a deal more likely to happen as consolidation and scale are required.

Interesting company. Wondering what the projections are for sales of this product? Certainly better from patient POV, but fewer office visits for the clinician. Could be impediment to adoption?
The overall market they are addressing across the portfolio is attractive. No pun intended!

ALVOF announces record monthly production, and another potential discovery in deep Cabure field. They are ramping up their drilling and testing program and about to turn on their new gas pipeline to increase production to 18 MMcf/day.
On the way to 35 MMcf/day over next 2-3 years if they keep executing.
News

VERI earnings report would seem to validate your skepticism on the AiWare Platform. Disappointing.
I sold 25% of my position on the pre earnings ramp up to reduce headline risk. Dumped the rest AH yesterday at prices lower than this AM. Took the known small profit.
If they can show some meaningful growth in adoption I will get back in.

The federal government is massively subsidizing the nuclear industry as it attempts to deal with LT storage of waste.
They subsidize oil/gas/coal with tax incentives on production and low cost leases on federal lands.
Some form of subsidies and/or tax incentives will need to be included in this panel waste problem.
But it is one I have been concerned with for some time. There was a thin film PV producer who went bust outside of Denver. Their inventory was treated as hazardous waste and the landlord was on the hook for disposal. As a commercial property owner/operator that is the kind of problem that keeps me up at night

BP had one of the worst historic safety records in the industry. Probably played a part in the decline you note. But I believe they have gotten better. That is what happens when you start from the basement...

The company that can figure out how to scale their technology to mass production will be a big winner!
I visited Proterra (Electric Bus company) in its early years here in Golden CO. They had a super cool nanotechnology battery provider. Unfortunately, the battery production was not ready for prime time. Great for a demo pack, but not for factory production.

Considering they bulked up in Q1 and experienced a big jump to the expense line as a result, it is no wonder they have scaled back on hiring this quarter. That doesn't indicate much either way.
The overpromise/underdeliver investor relations is growing old. They specifically said to look for some federal government contract news in the "next few weeks". That was the Stifel conference on June 9.
Nothing reported.
Can only hope the customer retention numbers stay consistent, and we experience real growth with a positive second half outlook.

ALVOF announces multi-zone discovery!
News

On track to increase production 25% to 18 Mmcf/day once plant expansion is complete and tie in of 183(1) well is final. Minor delays have pushed timing back to later this month.

Flow testing of two discovery wells on tap. More development wells pending. Pricing recalculation coming up, and should keep realized prices at high end of band for second half of 2022 (~$11.20/mcf).

The hyper partisan hacks on the WSJ Editorial Board blow this issue out of proportion. More stringent NOx emission controls are available and fairly economic. It is not a new "curb" on fracking, it is demanding reasonable mitigation from a reckless industry.
Ground level ozone does nasty things to the lungs.
But of course the Supreme Court will now invalidate any industry regulations not clearly set by a disfunctional Congress...

I agree that functionality is being engineered across many settings by many players.
To put the investment thesis in better terms, I see a company with 80% gross margins growing revenues at a 30% organic rate, with a first mover advantage in the companies they are doing business with. Recently EBITDA positive on the operating level, with over $5 of free cash on the books to help them get to GAAP profitability and free cash flows.
That company is trading at a cheap P/S ratio for any software company.
VERI is in the show me stage for their land and expand marketing strategy utilizing their "operating system" platform versus bespoke coding. They face sever headwinds in their prime markets of media and hiring, while seeing big opportunities in distributed power and government. Are they going out of business with all that cash, and a low coupon convertible debt with no near term maturity? I don't see it happening.
I assume $2 downside/$12 upside at a minimum. If they leverage their first mover advantage in the large opportunities they have already penetrated, the upside looks greater. Those are speculative odds I will take all day long when I see an actual business model and management that has grown prior media companies to successful exits.
AI is in the early innings. Frankly the tech scares the hell out of me. But there is real value to the customers they serve.

As to your specific question on data driven advertising, AI can amalgamate the data like any other program designed to do that, BUT is creates a predictive algo that learns and self corrects as it is used. So it is not static and boxed in like traditional data analytics.
But I am not a software engineer and can only go by the use cases and growth trends to date.

Way too many companies took PPP money when they didn't need it. It was a shitty implementation of a worthwhile program. As long as you had a banking relationship and applied quickly, you got money. MAny small businesses that needed the money were left behind.
The edge VERI has is building an "operating system" for AI to be deployed in different areas and actual scale in an emerging industry with a lot of small "one-off"application providers. VERI focuses on unstructured data, and much of what they do is within the advertising/marketing space. Think reams of digital video and audio data.They even have their own digital advertising agency. That whole side of the business is going to suffer in the downturn.
Their Pandologic acquisition makes mass hiring programs more efficient. Largest customer is Amazon. I think Walmart is using it too. Another that will take a hit, but large seasonal employers will still need to hire efficiently.
New business verticals in distributed energy (utility scale production and trading), and governmental programs (kind of a blank check where many are grabbing initial pilot dollars). I am looking for confirmation of their "Land and expand" sales model. TECO is in pilot on their solar energy production. Street has been waiting for an expansion announcement that has not come yet. Murebini doing a pilot for energy trading. I saw PR stating their technology learned grid demand market prediction in days and outperformed industry providers.
Lots of other possibilities including their metaverse stuff. But that's just gravy.

C3.ai is Tom Siebel's company doing AI on top of enterprise software platforms to make the systems predictive. Another name that has been slammed, and i will probably own that one at some point soon.

These companies are trading like they are going out of business instead of the high gross margin, emerging tech companies with oodles of cash that they are.

My apartments in southern NH (market rate state) are paying $0.18/KwH right now versus $0.12 at beginning of year (which was up from $0.095 the prior year). We gambled and lost on locking in price for 2022.
Ouch

Natty gas took it on the chin today as a delay in LNG export facility repairs will add to domestic supplies.
Great news as we hit peak cooling season!

The threat of grid failure is out in the future. A commitment to the grid infrastructure would likely accelerate the timelines you suggest.
And conservation can play a role. Amory Lovins predicted energy demand growth would drop in the 1970's through conservation measures. Big energy called the numbers unachievable. The reality was demand growth dropped by more than Amory's lowest number in the range. We still have plenty of conservation opportunities ahead. The energy star program was created for a reason.
So never say never. That's what got us into this mess to begin with. We dragged our feet for too long.

We sat on our hands for far too long. Stumbles occur along the way of a major transition. But we do not have a grid infrastructure that can handle the loads as we continue on the trajectory. Wires will literally melt.
If ever there was a time to commercialize superconductivity, now is it. I have not heard squat on that front in years.

A debate you say?

The EV tax credit was created to spur a new market. The fact that Tesla came in and kicked the legacy Autos' asses was not a gift to Elon. A new competitor came into the market and has forced everyone to up their game. I would call that a successful policy result!
Doesn't take much speech writing genius to conclude that Elon is the Devil incarnate! I do applaud the industry achievements of Tesla and Space X. Corporate practices...not so much. And this Twitter debacle provides Matt Levine from Bloomberg with an infinite source of hilarious material for his daily newsletter.

The oil/gas industry has received preferential treatment for far too long.
Intangible Drilling Costs expensed versus capitalized, low cost Fed leases, low royalties, etc.
And the mandates to control methane leaks, drill/complete safely, and monitor all infrastructure is basic good practice.
Our shale production is the stuff that come on quickest to alleviate supply shortfalls. Most of that is private acreage. So giving away Alaska and Gulf concessions is a BS energy policy. I have had enough with the industry whining.
We need to be investing in a grid that can handle the deployment of more electric vehicles and domestic heat pumps. I see no real focus on that bottleneck towards an electrified future.
But meanwhile Chargepoint has caught a bid, and I am seeing their stations more and more. Same with the other charger providers. I just rented a plug in hybrid minivan in MA, and had a reasonably good experience with the vehicle and charger access in localized areas. Probably saved $30 in gas over the one week rental.
A long road trip in an electric vehicle is still out of the question.