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That's ridiculous, I've been here since MRVL and lurk almost daily. I rarely post 'cause I rarely have anything of substance to say, so I don't. And yeah, I dig S2 and appreciate what he's trying to do here. I also find it it anoying how you use his board to reguarly point out how things aren't going as he predicted in a very juvenile manner (ha, ha...told you so!) Kinda reminds me of my kids when they were younger. It dosen't diminish S2's credibility, it just annoys his loyal followers.
I hope you shorted SOL, MNKD & OREX and made a mountain of cash. If you saw it coming tell us how we can use your insight.
Dude, while you sometimes post a usefull, informative post your bashing of S2's recommendations (and S2 personally) are annoying. Anyone who has been a follower of S2 has learned way more about trading and the markets than on any other discussion board. Usually your posts are spitefull and pathetic...find some other board to bash or offer an insightfull, intelligent counterpoint to what S2 is trying to do here. Even if he only posts about once a month.
S2--just watched that flick...terrific. King Corn is another good one on NFLX documentary. I personally love netflix service but the stock just begs to be shorted, I've shorted it in the past (short-term) w/ good results. I dunno. This market is just nuts. I'm at 100 % cash. Can't make heads or tails of it.
Interested to hear your thoughts on the markets near term. I REALLY want it to tank but now it seems like too many bears have moved to to the short side of the boat...thoughts?
Thanks S2--and post more often!!
S2--still using this system? Any tweaks/refinements?
Thanks
Thanks S2--great insight.
S2--your opinion please; is this the top? Or are we going to 12K (DOW) 1300 (S&P)? Or even higher? I, of course, started buying SDOW at 11400 w/ the biggest chunk at 11734 (why 11734? I don't know, it just 'felt' like a top). Thats about as scientific as my trading style gets. My breakeven point is DOW ~11600. Anyway. Just looking for your read on the markets. Specifically (if you're bored on MLK day) what are the chances the DOW falls under 11600 in the next 30 days?
Thanks S2
S2, its good to hear from you again--check your email once-in-a-while!
Rob
Thanks S2--yeah I'm really looking forward to 'bringin' it' next year. Never really felt like I hit my stride this year, but yeah you made some genius calls. TYO--man, you nailed that one to a TEE. I actually just got out yesterday w/ a nice payday--thanks man!
And yes I got into MNKD although I missed OREX. I was actually out of town, exercising in the hotel gym when I saw the news on CBNBC that it was up 150% after hours blah, blah, blah. I just stood there w/ my jaw on the floor, guys were looking at me strange.
So anyway yeah I'm excited about MNKD. CEO Alfred Mann seems like a real stand-up guy too from what I've read about him on the internet.
Thanks again S2--keep it up!!
S2--what is your opinion on the markets right now? About to head south? BTW here is why I think we'll never see QE3 or beyond
http://finance.fortune.cnn.com/2010/12/14/congressman-ron-paul-end-the-fed/
S2, your opinion please--I'm thinking of shorting silver. Thinking about buying Feb calls of the inverse ETF (ZSL). What do you think? BTW what is going on w/ treasuries? 10 year is getting the beat-down!
Thanks
S2--gotta give you credit, you called it exactky right on this trade, 10 year note hit 3%. Too bad Direxion changed the ETF to include the 7-year. I'm sticking w/ it though, personally I think it's a great longer-term trade.
Nice S2---genius as usual. I went ahead and shorted the crap outta NFLX at $205...screw 'em.
So then BAMM--the market drops off a cliff? Do you think at all that the Pres election cycle and FEDs monkeying w/ the markets will mute that somewhat? It seems to (novice) me that Ben is bent on not allowing any substantial drop in the markets...
Thanks S2
S2--your opinion please; short NFLX @ $200? I mean this stock is just getting ridiculous here isn't it?
Thanks
S2--still bullish in the short term (2-3 months)? This dip really helped me out, was able to ditch SDOW w/ skin intact. Looks like I should've held on however--things getting ugly in Europe, possibly Korea; what are your thoughts? It kinda 'feels' like the market is one big shock away from taking a huge dump.
Also, if investors begin to dump European treasuries, do you think they'll flock to US treasuries or dump ours as well?
Thanks S2
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Gloom-anger-spreads-as-apf-2169759298.html?x=0&sec=topStories&pos=2&asset=&ccode=
Hmmm...good point New. I never even considered that the smart money could blow a bubble outside of the US. You know I recently lived in North Dakota, in a town about 50 miles south of Canada and every weekend busloads of Canucks would decend on Target/WallMart. An inconvenience but good for everybody.
Maybe this time the smart money cycles out of the US alltogether?
Good luck selling your home. Higher interest rates are gonna crush our fragile market. But it's not like most people can get a loan now anyway (credit scores) so maybe it won't make much difference either way.
Thanks for the post
http://www.rollingstone.com/politics/news/12697/64796
The bond market is that big huh? Well there is a lot of anger out there in the int'l community directed at the Feb & Obama. Maybe if they curtail thier purchases of US debt then the stock market will see that the Fed is NOT in control and sell. Only problem is they've got to park thier cash somewhere, if not treasuries or stocks or real estate then where? Cash? No good. Gold? Already too expensive. Oil & other consumer commodities? Maybe. I don't know. Probably the smart money will roll back into stocks but maybe 'they' want to seek to shake confidence a bit to take profits and buy cheaper. That's what the smart money does right? Just thinking out loud here. I'm with 'ya on TYO though--got my cost basis down close to $40 on the stock and picked up 10 $40 calls @ 2.50.
Thanks S2
Thanks S2. What do you think about TMV? We're eager to hear about your new trading system too when you get a chance.
Thanks again
S2--please give us your thoughts, to me it looks like the fed plans to squash 7-10-yr yields prior to end of year. How does that affect our Feb TYO calls? Maybe a better play might be in TMV (300% bear 30-yr treasury)?
http://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/tot_operation_schedule.html
Thanks
Yeah? What do you think? We go up a little more before dropping?
Thanks
Roger that S2, with 'ya there. I just hope the market backs off a little before going much higher...a flash crash would be nice.
I noticed that even Prechter is bullish now. Sentiment has done a complete 180, maybe Ben knows what he's doing?
Thanks S2
Thanks S2. I kinda thought too many people were lining up for the sell the news trade on QE2--same thing going on here do you think? SOOO many expect a hard sell-off and when too many expect something to happen...
I don't know. Ealier this year I thought I was really hitting my stride in this game but lately the market has me completely baffeled. Oh well, tomorrow's a new day. Maybe we'll get at least a mild sell-off next week allowing me to escape SDOW w/ a little skin left. I have a nasty habit of getting emotionally attached to my trades--you always say trade what you see not what you feel. Good advice.
At least I'm back in Cal. this week, up near Sacramento for my day job. If nothing else it's good to be back in the homeland, even if it's not LA (I grew up in Orange).
Thanks again.
Thanks S2. Do you see a hard correction for the markets (DOW specifically) or do you think we kinda waffle around before heading toward 12K? Looking to exit a crappy SDOW position...
Thanks again
S2--is this out the window now?
Thanks
S2, that was anti-climatic, what now? Think the market will bounce around tomorrow maybe beginning a hard sell-off w/ Friday's jobs report?
Also, how does the Fed's focus on buying 7-10 year treasuries affect TYO? Think we're screwed on our Feb calls? Do you think it's notable that the langauge was that they "are prepared to" purchase vs. "will definately" purchase means anything? Maybe it's just that Ben really did regret ever engaging in any QE2 discussion but didn't want to shock the market by saying they wouldn't be doing anything right now?
Thanks S2
http://scottgrannis.blogspot.com/2010/11/deconstructing-qe2-its-less-than-meets.html
Thanks S2--if you get a min. could you explain how you set up your chart for emini trading? Is it just a simple 5 min ema and that's it? What do use for entry & exit targets?
Thanks
Nice. Even bonehead Cramer had it right the other night when he said we need a healthy sell-off here. Maybe the Yemen terror attempt will give the markets a nudge down on Monday. I'm really surprised there hasn't been more of reaction to 'foreclosuregate' too. Somebody really wanted to support the market in Oct, maybe Nov. will bring some overdue selling.
Different subject S2--you still trading eminis using a 5 min sma vs. ema system? If so how's it working out for you?
Thanks
I know you guys are probably getting tired of me posting articles; last one, I promise. Here's the bottom line up front: In short, the Fed may choose ‘jaw jaw’ over ‘shock and awe’ in order to maintain the perception that it still has ‘dry powder.’
http://www.cnbc.com/id/39852824
Yeah this is sweet, I hope it becomes more pronounced (sharp sell-off into the close) but whatever.
So what now S2? You think a minor correction as the market digests the election & QE2 results followed by the next leg up? Still thinking buy QQQQ calls?
Thanks
Interesting article:
http://pragcap.com/subprime-debacle-2-part-2
Ben on Nov. 3d: "Ah..yeah..about that whole addtional easing thing, turns out the economy's doing OK. Who knew!"
That would be great. Or if there was simply no mention of QE.
Could be a big day. I really don't see any scenario where the markets react favorably, but what do I know? Maybe Ben will say the economy's fine however they're going to ease just because they said they would.
Good stuff S2. Do you think there is any link between a deterioating social mood and a potential drop in the market? For example the public may not feel like they've not been able to financially recover as the markets have recovered therefore the market will drop? Along w/ all of the other real and technical reasons why the market should be topping out here...I don't know, probably too simplistic.
BTW I sent you a note on your S2 gmail...please reply if you get a chance. Thanks
Yeah, that guy nailed it. My gut feeling is that the top is close now. Gonna buy a little more SDOW on any spike, have a GTC order at 48.50 (or about DOW 11,200). I'm still kinda sweatin' TYO just because it feels foolish to fight the fed if they're really serious about crushing yeilds. I think about 500B of QE2 is priced in but the Fed is an unsettling wild-card....
Anyway, good stuff lately on the board S2. Keep posting!
Thanks S2. Here's an interesting article (and a decent blog):
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2010/10/the-foreclosure-mess/
Thanks S2--here's an interesting article, and decent blog too:
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2010/10/the-foreclosure-mess/
Thanks S2. I don't know if you ever read private messages on your S2 g-mail acct; I'll send you a note next week.
Thanks again
Thanks S2, appreciate the reply. I allways thought it was dumb that the Fed only cares about supposed 'core' inflation...food & energy are what most people spend most of thier scratch on. There's an interesting white paper out there that shows how Wall-Mart's register reciepts fall in direct correlation to every cent gasoline rises above $3/gal. Also that the totals tend to be round, even amounts. Indicating shoppers are at the limit of thier shopping budget. I'll find it and post it here. Households aren't set up right now to absord the kind of inflation Ben is seeking. BTW this is the same guy who said the problems in subprime would not affect the broader markets--'cantagion' was it? Dumbass.
I know you don't typically focus on the DOW but if you have time could you give me your best 3-month look-ahead? I bought a pile of SDOW hoping to buy my wife a nice gift for her B-Day in Feb. Anyway, if you have time I would appreciate it. I'm kinda sweating it.
Thanks again
S2--another options simpleton question for you; I've been keeping track of the open interest on TYO Feb calls and until lately there's been zero except at the $40 strike. Lately (past 2-3 days) there's a bunch of open interest in some of the out-of-the-money calls and much more in the $40 that we bought. Significant?
Thanks
S2--given all of the reasons as to why the market should tank; any input as to whether 'they' are pushing it higher (rather, holding the line, like DOW 11K) for opex? With potentially a big sell-off coming next week?
What does a big--I mean big--sell-off in equities mean to TYO? Think the 10-yr. yeild has been crammed down about as low as it could ever go?
Maybe in the near term we see a big stock dump, with little movement in TYO, then a reversal in stocks (early Nov-ish) which prompts investors to dump treasuries? What do you think?
Yeah I'm with you S2--been adding while it dips under $40. Thanks for turning us onto this trade