Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
Lots of shorting going on yesterday, too. But short sale rule is in effect today so they can’t short today. Solid volume for two days running. (Quarter million as of right now.) Today’s price action will be telling. I’m liquidating other positions to buy in as much as I can here.
I’m jealous. I’m fully tapped out and may be locked in at 6,001 shares forever. While $120 doesn’t get me to retirement, $250 does. And I think there’s a real possibility that comes within 12 months of $120. We shall see.
Well, this is a fun morning.
Working on a deadline and haven’t gotten to listen. But previewed the slide deck. Anything of note? Accelerating Factor D trials? They downplayed Gali in the slide deck so it sounds like they’re not actively seeking suitors for a partnership on furthering covid research. (Maybe some black helicopter nonsense with the government and stockpiling but, if so, when are we going to see revenue and how much?) Otherwise, anything new?
Good to know. I’ll look out for that. Any predictions on what’s in there regarding Orladeyo sales or PT sign ups? That would be the biggest value driver prior to Q1 ER.
“That might be the real fuel.” Sorry, forgot the forum doesn’t like emojis.
Well, this is fun to see. 1) new trial, 2) new slide deck, 3) shout out on Cramer, 4) JPM tomorrow. Almost as good as PDUFA on Dec. 3. We’ll see what Bluth was talking about when he said yesterday’s slide deck will have some slides added for JPM. That might be the real ??
Biggest problem with moves like these is that you get a lot of activity for a week or two. Then we’ll have to sit and wait with little momentum until Q1 ER. Japan and EU approvals will give a little boost. But I’m guessing those are already baked in at this point.
Small time. But I snagged over 300 more shares at 7.03.
100% same story. 9930 is what kept me buying more and more. Probably doubled my position on that alone. Already solidly green on this one and the only way we can go is up. So there’s zero risk.
The Gali release doesn’t add up. Something’s still going on. It’ll be yet another chapter in my threatened book on this drug/company. Just need to find Stonehouse’s email address...
Government will still buy and stockpile Gali. I suspect there will be a private/independent study on covid announced sometime in Q1. Animal study alone justifies this. (And might be a basis for EUA but for the government’s apparent desire to keep this drug out of the fast-track covid pipeline...?) Long story short, we will profit from Galidesevir. How much and when remains the question.
Maybe, maybe not. If you’re into technical trading, this board isn’t going to help a lot. We’re all long and holding for a while here. I for one (and probably other posters) would be buying more here in the mid-7s if I had more cash. But it’s all tied up in BCRX already.
Long-term projections: $20 on current Orladeyo sales alone. That’s a minimum threshold. Probably higher without anything else. However, despite this morning’s PR and everyone assuming it means Galidesevir is dead, that drug will produce revenue going into the future. How much and how soon is the question. The government will stockpile it, though, and they’re not good at bargain shopping. So there’s income to be had. Throw BX 9930 on top and you’re talking about extra BILLIONS in the pipeline for indications known and unknown. Currently being tested for PNH because it’s a tough disease to treat and positive results there will make 9930 a shoe-in for numerous other indications. Arthritis alone is a $60B industry with 9930 a potential treatment. Anything with “inflammation” in the disease description might implicate 9930 as a treatment. And inflammation is used to describe most diseases these days. Oh, then there’s this other drug, BX9250. Good results on that just yesterday. I’m still unclear of the potential market for that. But even if it’s a $0 market, it shows that this company has the potential to develop, test, and produce a wide range of drugs for difficult diseases. And they’re only now starting to produce income. What will their development pipeline look like in 2-3 years?
Long story short, price predictions here are a guess at best. Many on this board are holding for $100+ and that’s largely because we don’t yet have a strict basis to calculate and therefore expect $200+ or $300+. Check back in a year and I’ll bet we’re discussing those numbers seriously.
You think this despite them confirming on the JMP call that news is coming in December on Japanese approval, Gali trials, and 9250? That’s the first time they’ve let Bluth talk, so maybe he just got excited and promised us the moon. Nonetheless, he seemed confident.
Thanks Spudz. Any predictions, though? Or how would you value potential future opportunities here? I like what I know of the company. Just trying to figure out what a long-term position might be worth in a few years.
Long-term, any pps predictions? What info should I be looking at for this company? (No experience with this industry or Chinese mfg.) I’ve got a small position and am interested in this company for a long-term play. But very unclear on how people are valuing this. Not a trader and not making money on volume.
My thoughts/position exactly.
Being the first individual stock I’ve really invested heavily in, I’m afraid this will spoil the fun for the rest of my investing career.
Would a “In Stonehouse we trust” tattoo be too much?
StockTwits. Bio99 is a regular there.
Ha. Could be my friend. Working in Boston and they’re running out or completely out of hospital beds. Transferring to other states and infectious disease docs have given the go ahead to emergency med and trauma docs to start patients on Remdesevir. Could use news any day now.
Wow. I missed that one. Seems odd, but what do I know.
One day, perhaps after BCRX allows me to retire early, I’ll write a history of this company and all the weird issues that occurred along the way to making it into a mid- to large-cap company. Maybe it won’t be as interesting as I think, but there’s only one way to find out.
Whatever happened to the Wisconsin macaque study? My understanding is that was a pathway to UAE. There was also rumor of an operation warp speed study being conducted in LA with an unidentified anti-viral that met the description of Gali. Don’t recall the source, but someone posted it on here.
I bought a few shares with some spare cash on this morning’s dip. Didn’t lock in 7.29, but got close at 7.32. Averaging up but I’m still happy to do so. Hoping for year-end bonuses before Gali news.
Agreed. I mean, there’s the potential for exponential returns. But I suspect that ship probably sailed in about October. Might be different if there are further hiccups with the two vaccines going to market. Also, their efficacy analysis is questionable, from what I understand, so they might not deliver quite as well as expected. Nonetheless, low likelihood of a skyrocketing price on Gali news.
I just about s#*+ myself when I saw the royalty structure—until I saw the graduated phase out. I know BC has been standing by their $500M in sales, but there have been enough threads on numbers of HAE patients (currently receiving prophylactic injectables and those not receiving prophylactic injectables) to persuade me that $500M is hyper conservative. I mean, they’ve got too large of a sales force in place to be expecting $500M. Not sure what the current number is, but let’s say they’ve got 30 people in sales right now. That’s $16.6M per salesperson. At $492,000 per HAE patient/year, that’s 33 patients per sales person. No way. They know their market is larger than this by a long shot.
Many of us were throwing an unreasonable amount of money in the pot here waiting on the ephemeral Galidesevir announcement. Maybe Stoney knew what he was doing all along. It’s looking like Orladeyo may be worth the wait. And with 9930 icing on the cake, I’ll be holding this for a while. Had planned to cash out as soon as possible. But if 9930 has legs and they start paying out dividends in a few years, I’m sitting tight.
All to say, I agree with Wolverine. This is expensive money today but well worth the investment if it gets us out of the gate at a full run.
This strikes me as a signal that they’re not looking to a buyout anytime soon. Others on this forum have asserted/assumed a buyout is coming or imminent. Granted, I don’t know this industry well, so I might be wrong and I welcome clarification on where I’m wrong or missing something. Just trying to understand the dynamics here.
They’ve taken on a funding partner for a sizable line of credit to develop Orladeyo and BCRX. From this write up, it looks like there’s a permanent royalty structure in place. They’ve also been adding staff like crazy over the past two quarters. Add to this, I get the impression from Stonehouse on investor calls and conferences that he and everyone else are excited about this transition to a “big boy” pharmaceutical from their status as just an R&D company. All of this suggests to me that they’re not banking on/hoping for a buyout. I assume the Pfizers and Mercks of the world would be interested in their current lineup. And those companies have strong cash positions, not to mention production capacities, partnerships, etc. I don’t get the impression BC lacks for buyout opportunities with what they’ve got at present, especially in light of the recent PDUFA.
Granted, this might just be them trying to grow and stabilize the company for a better buyout price at some future point. I’m not convinced of this, but it’s a distinct possibility. However, even that approach isn’t likely to result in a buyout especially soon. I think they need some track record of established and growing sales, plus real traction on the 9930 research. I’d guess we’re looking at a little over a year before that’s likely to materialize.
Again, I’m a noob in this sector so I welcome any disagreements and insight to the contrary.
Got it. Makes more sense. Didn’t realize it’s a rolling list. Thought those were all outstanding.
I’ve read the 21% number. But in the link you provided, if you add up the total value of their interests, it’s in the neighborhood of $500M. Just making sure I’m understanding that number correctly. Because with a market cap of $1.08B, $500M is more than 21%. So not sure what I’m missing there.
Am I reading this right? Is there a short interest equal to half the current market cap? And it looks like all those interests are coming due in the next week or so?
What’s everyone’s long-term projections here? Say 2-3 years. Any rough ideas? I don’t day trade and I’m long on a relatively small position. Don’t know this sector well enough to invest more right now, but I’m encouraged by what I see.
Wow. Nearly 16M volume as of 9:55EST!
Likewise! Although I don’t think our Gali dreams are totally dead.
https://www.wsj.com/articles/pfizer-slashed-its-covid-19-vaccine-rollout-target-after-facing-supply-chain-obstacles-11607027787
Any real results might still prove solid returns on Gali, if they’d just pay attention to that drug. It’s always seemed like their red-headed step child, though. Maybe that’s the result of being in bed with NIAID on this one.
Thanks. I’ll check that out.
You’d think BC would have a PR queued up and Stoney would be hovering over his mouse just waiting to click “send” or “publish” or “launch” or whatever it would say.
Dumb question: where will this info be posted? Presumably BC will post a PR. I’m not sure, though, whether the FDA posts results anywhere. Google didn’t solve this problem for me.
Three trades totaling nearly 20,000 shares closed within five seconds of one another at 5:25 for a total of $100,932. Looks like a big “gamble” from someone. Either covering their shorts or someone who knows something.
I watched yesterday’s conference this morning and they asked the same question about a possible delay. Stonehouse’s response was that it’s always a possibility, but their “confidence level is extremely high.” Among their reasons are having redundancy in domestic manufacturing. FDA isn’t “hit and miss” with traveling to manufacturing plants inside the U.S. and, if they’ve recently traveled to a facility and found no concerns they might accept a previous approval and apply it to the Orladeyo application. He didn’t say whether he had any info on whether an inspection had actually taken place, only repeated “our confidence level is very high.”
One would think the FDA would identify the anticipated delay and provide that information in advance: “hey, we still need to do a site visit and can’t get to it for a month or two.” Not sure what the typical practice is, though.
Conversation starts about 2:20.
I did the same for a while. But life got expensive and I ran dry. Going to have to work a few more years.
Every day I’ve bought I’ve ended up in the red. One of the special joys of BCRX.
Once bitten, twice shy.
Everyone here is long on this stock. Just not getting excited every time a new tidbit of news comes out. Experience says news alone won’t move this stock.
Not rich yet, but I’m finally in positive territory again! Good day.
“Rumors” they’re announcing an accelerated phase II and III tomorrow. Not sure of the source. Trying to find that. One can hope. Presumably, if there’s anything to this rumor, there’s good efficacy data that NIAID has found and we’d be looking at UAE soon. I’ll believe it when I see it, though.
That’s interesting. Certainly could be a cautionary note for a premature announcement. (Not that most manufacturers have been driven by caution or a fear of premature announcements this past year.)
My thoughts regarding Remdesevir vs Galidesevir are primarily wrapped up in methods of delivery. An oral formulation of Galidesevir could be administered “early and often.” It could be seen as a bit of a prophylactic treatment for those with early symptoms. This is the key weakness with Remdesevir. It requires a patient to be acute enough, meaning a now-prolonged disease course and already beat up immune system and likely weakened lungs and therefore oxygen levels, to be admitted to the hospital before even receiving the treatment. So if Remdesevir might have some real potential, it would presumably be in early administration which is currently a practical impossibility.
BioCryst no doubt knows this. So any assessment they’re making of Gali being a treatment for covid probably revolves around large-scale production of an oral formulation. (Which is a huge benefit with Gali over Remdesevir because it’s a small molecule and easier and faster to produce.) Not sure what their production timelines look like, though, given Stonehouse’s vague and non-committal statement.
So, the host asked about when we’d get data updates on Gali toward the end. “This quarter” was about all Stoney would commit to. He seemed to be downplaying it. His comments were basically, “we need big government stockpiles of antivirals and covid has proved that.” When asked about where they were with production, he acted like he had no idea. “We have enough for clinical trials, that’s for sure. But beyond that, I couldn’t comment.” He also briefly emphasized that this is still early stage in the clinical work. He didn’t even seem to acknowledge or consider that UAE might be a possibility. Like commercial production is still several trials and many months away.
It seems like there’s either a strange government agreement that’s forcing them to downplay this, or they as a company just don’t see a whole lot of potential here. I don’t see how the latter is possible unless it’s a very ineffective drug. I mean, Remdesevir got UAE and it’s proven toxic in numerous instances with very limited efficacy.
Given the fact that he pawned off responsibility for data analyses previously on NIAID, I’m inclined to think there’s some work going on behind the scenes. An optimistic interpretation is that the government owns the rights to early production runs for stockpile purposes. So they’re slow in releasing data so they don’t have to deal with the PR s#*+ storm that would result if this drug is effective but no one can get it because Uncle Sam is loading it into the hay loft of its many stockpile barns. In effect, Stoney and the company are under a gag order of sorts. This would explain the nonchalance with which they treat this drug and also the funding they’ve received from NIAID.
Alternatively, there’s the possibility that this drug just doesn’t do much. Earlier data would say otherwise. But if that’s true, perhaps they’re just sitting on this for as long as possible to build up momentum with other drugs to let Bero and 9930 form the basis for share price growth before slowly releasing mediocre/bad Gali results.