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If AMRN lost the patent in the USA with Du, then what is preventing them from losing it in Europe if challenged there? That's a huge risk again?? (can't count on any judges anymore)
Your response indicates that you think $1.15 had already baked in a negative Italy decision and a positive Netherlands decision. And that the revenue guidance pre-earnings wasn't baked in, because the stock price fell on that news.
My question is simple, that I would have thought the stock would fall further based on this Italy news.
Why hasn't the stock gone down after hours after the Italy decision? Isn't this a large loss of potential revenue?
Approx. what price did Baker Brothers sell at? And what was their approx average cost?
Kiwi, so we are not out of the woods yet according to you.
Although what even Dr. Bhatt and FDA said is that the mineral oil might reduce the effect a bit, but still doesn't account for the FULL difference.
So in that regard, if we say mineral oil reduces the effect by a few %, well what in the Mitigate study would be there to explain away the remaining large positive effect? If we think like that, then there is not much risk even from Mitigate results.
Please correct me if that line of thinking is wrong.
Whalatane- what you are saying is scary... but:
This is what Dr. Josh Socolow (cardiologist) replied to Feurstein's tweet:
"Not seeing the significance- we have know about the ldl and crp since reduceit was published. Was discussed at adcom. Fda statistician felt that placebo likely contributed a few percent to result. Who cares about the rest of the markers?"
Why does Mitigate trial really need to validate what Reduce-It already showed, keeping in mind the context provided by the above quote
HDGabor - thanks. Then at $1.20 it is a pretty good deal!
For you to think it's an absolute bargain at $2 or $2.50, are you assuming they will GIA (go it alone) in Europe or that they will partner with somebody?
HDGabor - looks like we have at least a few months before hearing any good news or seeing Q2 results and cash burn/management.
Given the overall market environment, it seems that AMRN could go below $1, since there doesn't seem to be any huge catalyst right now for the stock to suddenly move up.
Right now it's trading around about $70mm Enterprise Value.
At what price would you say "Wow, AMRN is a steal and no-brainer investment to buy at this price" ?
In the podcast, Denner mentioned they invest not just for a few months, but for longer term, to get some board seats and influence and fix the company.
I don't think he would be selling out suddenly. Sometimes people on ihub can get emotional/frantic and jump to conclusions, but I don't think it would be logical for him to bail out just a few months after putting on a position, based on this investment style.
My understanding from what he said is that he invested because he thinks the longer term valuation of AMRN is greater than $4, and they think they have a good chance of going in and unlocking that value. Otherwise they don't take these types of positions.
It seems the cardiovascular part he mentioned is likely including AMRN, unless he's taken other large investments in other cardio stocks.
Thanks sstyles, will listen to it.
sstyles - do you have the podcast link with Denner and Cowen? Thanks
Thanks CaptBeer for sharing that.
Thanks HDG - you mentioned you don't think there will be a buyout. Can I ask your thoughts on why you think that?
I realize people have been talking about a buyout for years, and it's never happened. Likely everyone is very tired of hearing the word "buyout" now.
But logically speaking, with the company now trading at $500mm market cap, with multiple approvals in Europe, surely the probability of a buyout might have increased, albeit at a lower multiple.
HDG - I guess the question to start with could be, for what reasons would the UK not approve vazkepa, when the US, Sweden, Canada, etc. have already approved it?
Historically, does the UK usually follow in the footsteps of the US FDA, or are they more stringent in their approval process? Does anyone know?
Also wasn't Lovaza removed from the guidelines in UK? (or Europe?). I would think that gives Vazkepa a better chance of being approved in UK.. Just my thoughts
Back after a hiatus to hear MARJAC - you killed it! Thanks for your efforts
HK, what would be nice is to reply to Nissen with equal or greater force with a rebuttal with facts and circulate over social media like fin twitter at minimum. And to publicly call him out and somehow make sure other medical professionals can also see it.
We need a doctor to respond to Niseen's falsehoods via video and tear him apart
Nissen attacks mineral oil again... see video
Hi guys, I'm back after a long hiatus. Hope everyone is doing great, I have a lot of messages to catch up on!
Just saw this new video from Nissen today... the idiot is still harping on about the mineral oil nothingburger.
VIDEO: Fish Oil Fears: Study Finds Prescription-Strength Fish Oil Could Cause Some Harm
Thank you marjac for writing this letter
Whalatane- what did you use to compare toxicity rating? The only think I don't like about Omegavia is the enteric coating. I wish they made it without that
Biobillionair- before going to the bush, can you one last time EILI5 - Explain It Like I'm 5
In simple terms, are you saying this carve out for generics for Marine doesn't do them any good, because AMRN's Orange Book patents make it possible for AMRN to take generics to court, once they launch their generic drug for the Marine indication? And that the generics would be infringing on these OB patents, and therefore AMRN will be able to stop the generics if they win a future OB patent lawsuit against said generics?
invest2992- I took NAC for some time, but started getting fairly bad heartburn/acidity. Wondering if you've experienced the same? There are a few studies that show it's beneficial for lungs and COPD--
N-acetylcysteine for COPD: another trial shows benefit (PANTHEON)
The role for N-acetylcysteine in the management of COPD
eightisenough- wouldn't AMRN or generics have already indicated this request to her if they were open to settling afer her ruling?
postes- that's an interesting point. Why no amicus briefs from other pharmas, etc. when this ruling is thought to have such important implications?
postes- did you read my last point? I'll paste it here for you again:
"But yes, it can also be like being making poor investment / risk management choices. Will you be able to come out alive?"
Unfortunately, the simpler we think it is, the less simple it will turn out in the appeals court.....
But I hope I am very very wrong.
Bouf- off the top of my head:
It's like getting in a horrendous car crash. Will you make it out alive? And if you do, what permanent damage might you have to live with forever?
It's like an innocent man getting death row. Will he be freed?
It's like putting in hundreds of millions of dollars into research, and getting the research snatched away from you, while everyone is watching calmly. Will you get any of it back?
But yes, it can also be like being making poor investment / risk management choices. Will you be able to come out alive?
In all these cases, there is irreparable damage, physical and psychological.
She's from DUmpster world. I hope she realizes it. Wonder if she even gives a sh$$
eightisenough/North40000- don't want to step on anyone's toes, firstly I appreciate everyone's opinions and everyone here adds value. In fact, the only value I've been adding is asking (silly) questions and fostering some discussion.
I can see that Biobillionair has presented some grand ideas (no offense intended) and has also added lots of valueable discussion.
North40000 seems to hold a similar opinion to Biobillionair, which is why I am confused, and intrigued.
Just trying to get North4000 and the other lawyers to debate if possible. It can only add value.
re: North4000/Biobillionair/Marjac/Eightisenough/bouf/other lawyers
I am also seeing this come up for the zillionth time. So which of you agrees with Biobillionair and North40000?
Any lawyers agree or disagree with this opinion?
@eight I use Mailbird and am trying out Mailspring recently (using both for personal use)
I'm scared the appeals judges will screw up somehow also. It's out of our hands, always has been.
Hopefully those like me that are stuck and underwater holding shares, are learning a good life lesson here.
eightisenough - why is markman missing this? I'm wondering if it's worth it to point out to them, just to see their response or thinking/perspective for sake of devil's advocate?
eightisenough - thanks for your work on this!
Btw, what app or add-on are you using to track email opens?
Thanks VuBru. I find this stuff fascinating... I often think about switching fields from tech/finance to medicine
Well I hope the EU pays off. With my/our luck with AMRN so far, I wouldn't be suprised if some other huge obstacle will come up when it comes time for AMRN to sell V for Reduce-It in the EU...
VuBru, link for your facebook live talk replay available by any chance?
Would be great to see if you're willing to share