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"KNOW how much oil"......I have the impression that very sophisticated 3-D seismic analysis software provides far more insight than commonly known. First, the cost of utilizing this software (and the supercomputing time to run it) precludes all but the very biggest of major oil companies from using it. Second, much of the deeper (pun!) analytical software is developed in-house at big oil and is held very proprietarily. Third, since this is big oil, they don't just run an analysis based on curiosity, "I wonder what the JDZ looks like?" Instead, efforts must align with strategic business plans. When one looks at the global picture, there are likely a lot of places currently more attractive than the GoG. If one believes in even part of the Peak Oil theory it is to their advantage to "bank" their discovery knowledge, should they develop such. They are not going to lose any future money. And, of course, they are going to "tight hole" their analyzed seismic information for a vast number of competitive reasons.
So, we shareholders don't Know what they Know, whatever they do Know. And until we drill, we don't Know for sure, and when we drill, we may Know some. But, basically we shareholders are a tiny boat adrift on a sea of ignorance and hope of finding shore is also tiny. Bitch all we want, but, .... get used to it!
$4.00 gas (East Coast) by 23 May 2008? (Memorial Day is 26th)
Kobi2K is correct, ethanol is the dumbest thing since the pet rock. (Showing my age :) )
(OT)
DG - Saw Shine a Light this weekend in Imax. Beyond excellent!
That folks, is (only) Rock & Roll!
With the case of possible Iranian involvement, this sorta opens the door as one possible reason for the alphabet gang to step-in - one uses domestic agencies to do your access, but the real customers are other parts of the alphabet with focus overseas. Jefferson's greed opened a back door to much previously inaccessible info.
Am I a conspiracy theorist? - nah. But a) the evolution of the investigation history has been very unusual, and b) as further information trickles-out about what is under the GoG waters via a number of folks doing DD on this board, it looks more and more like we are talking about some real, real serious f'ing change ($$$$) here. It's almost like the playoffs to the Super Bowl. The minnow may be in a bowl far bigger than it could ever imagine in the beginning.
Food for Thought, and IMHO, of course!
s2r,
Would that be an earlier version of waterboarding?
Brilliant......maybe for the modest fee of some more No Carry Blocks in the EEZ!
Ah! I figured it out - sleep.
17 hours driving from Carbondale, IL to Denver, CO at a much younger age.
Then I slept for about 20 hours.
Sorry, I can't decrypt "sellp".
Stocks,
Hey! I didn't say anything about "insider". The nearest thing to possible insider info I have ever seen on this board is the Easter weekend bruhaha with the whiteboard. And since it was there for the world to see, would it really be insider info?
To quote you, "I value his opinion as he seems to know what he is talking about and is not here everyday pumping." All I would like is to be able to put more meat on the "seems to know" part by getting some collaborative opinion. I'm not a petroleum geologist.
And, if he is a really good pumper, he does not need to be here everyday.
Yes, there's a "club" here and it is difficult to be accepted and easy to be accused of being a basher.
If you are happy, great. I tend to be a bit more cautious like some of the others on this board.
Remember...."Trust But Verify"......
As far as scaring off new investors, if the considerable analysis exhibited by this board frightens rather than comforts the potential new investor, then they don't need invest in ERHE anyhow. It's quite simple - in the end - Risk = Reward. The history speaks for itself. Yes, it's a lot to read. Tough! READ! ERHE is still here in the face of incredible negative events and odds. It is a scary story. Let them be parted with their money elsewhere. Most of us are still here because we have done or continue to do our own risk/reward calculation and have reached a positive conclusion.
I have one concern - the analysis of the 3-D seismic done by eoim - I don't recall any technical confirmation from another source. Several posters requested such but I don't remember any. Advise if I am mistaken. Note eoim did not appear on this board until 8 Dec 2007. Very new participant.
Not intending to insult eoim, but he could be a precocious 13-year old or a very good Pump & Dump player. Everybody started wetting their pants right after he posted.
Not to pee on the parade, I'm still long but a little concerned about runaway enthusiasm based on sole-source. (Didn't that sort of get us into Iraq?)
But she's NOT a 4 "Fs" girl.
Lot'sa people smelling the coffee....Monday will be very interesting.
Red, White, Black - Somehow I can't imagine Oilphant sifting thru thousands of pictures to find one with all those clues.
Checkmate it may be, but of whom, by who, is yet indeterminatable (not sure that is an approved word?)to us mere peons.
Iran? Syria? Joe has readers in very interesting places. Wonder if anybody subscribes in North Waziristan? OBL?
So there are five (5) employees (counting Sarah) at ERHE?
Whoa!
A "battle carrier war ship" ... what is that? There's been a USN ship, the USS Fort McHenry (LSD-43), on a six month deployment puttering around West Africa providing security training but this vessel is hardly a battle carrier. It is a Whidbey Island-class dock landing ship with an armament suite that is basically for self defense:
2 × 25 mm Mk 38 cannons
2 × 20 mm Phalanx CIWS mounts
2 × Rolling Airframe Missile
6 × .50 caliber M2HB machine guns
Yes, I do expect increased future activity by the U.S. in the GoG as AFRICOM establishes itself; however, the description "battle carrier" is a tad of an exaggeration at best and a prejudicial perspective about potential future activity by the U.S. in the GoG.
I guess you would also agree with the validity of a comment, "It's U.S. oil and we are going to crush anybody who differs with us!" as indicative of the U.S. "Secret Agenda" for the GoG. Sigh....we're always the evil empire compared to everybody else. Of course, many of those who indicate the U.S. as such are loath to step up to their international responsibilities - 'cause we do.
A huge attaboy to our ERHE IHub intelligence analysts! Now one understands why Western intelligence folks review every bin Laden video frame-by-frame. There's potential good poop in there!
Here's a question to ponder - the TXS - why there? One does note that Addax is a Canadian company.
Logically, the fact that the two squares labeled "Buy Addax %" and "Option to Invest" are inside individual squares would indicate to me they are mutually exclusive. HOWEVER, note there is a little circle encompassing the two closest square corners with a (apparent) question mark and an arrow pointing to the circle. This would indicate to me that while they are probably mutually exclusive possibilities there is some scenario "C" with a small (small circle) possibility both options could play out.
If the timeline of Sep-Oct 2007 for the video is valid, the currency of the information deduced is substantially devalued. While not (sadly) effecting the share value, there have been some significant events for ERHE and in the petroleum marketplace in the 5 months since which could have considerably altered the scenarios.
Finally, remember that money/business consultants thrive on ambiguity - the more reason to keep them on retainer!
Again, good work!
Regular disclaimer - ALL IMHO.
SINOPEC
IMHO....political before financial, no visibility before then.
I'll be Oily-like.......recognition of PRC by STP within six weeks by ~ 30 April 2008.
Otherwise, a Happy St. Pat's Day to all you Micks and wannabes.
ERHE - Green and Long
PS
(BTW - Hurling green beer is DISGUSTING! - for the participant and the observer.)
Hey guys & gals!
I didn't mean to start a Tong war among board members.
Everybody gets to air their opinions & observations. If somebody posts something that seems contradictory, well then maybe something they reviewed or read just changed their mind a bit. Or maybe they are just having a bad hair day?
Let's lighten up a bit - we are all family bound by an investment.
In the words of Don Cornelius (Ref .... Soul Train ... still around?) - Peace, Love, and Understanding.
PS
SP
Concur with your assessment of the article being of questionable value to the public face of the company.
But it is not us minority stockholders' call...this board is very vocal, but how many shares collectively do we possibly hold? Somebody was conducting a voluntary bean count in the fall but I don't recall a final tally. Did we even break 2%?
Continue DD, seek intelligence, be patient and buy or sell depending on your continuing assessments. I note that people who have inherited large wealth, if they will discuss it, typically insert in the conversation, "my greatgrandfather started out with 100 shares of X". Let's see, that would be a time line of 50-60 years. Ten years is a mere fortnight.
The uber-angst over the style of ERHE's management is useless, it just decreases one's life expectancy, which for some of us, could deny us the opportunity to point out how visionary we were and steadfast in the continuing pulsing drumbeat of coming doom. And, of course, also enjoy the fruits of our patience - a chunk of change.
But, alternatively, if it really makes you feel better, rant-on.
Calm and patience is the key, the train is approaching the end of the tunnel. Our problem is we don't know the length of the tunnel nor the speed of the train.
Bless ERHE and sustain we shareholders' patience. Amen.
End of sermon......or rant (as you will)....
Rev P. Shepherd
Church of EHRE Longs
BB,
Transparency.....a buzzword increasingly injected into corporate PR.
(Gee...,we got warts...see....)
Chinese Navy in GoG?
Indeed, Lady Umbra, a provocative scenario, but from a capabilities perspective it is currently impossible. The Chinese Navy has yet to demonstrate any logistic capability to support out-of-area activities. They don't even venture into the Indian Ocean. Yes, perhaps a port-to-port visit voyage working their way around the periphery of Africa would be a first initiative, but no time soon.
Such a show the flag event is largely meaningless. One has to be able to demonstrate a presence for at least several months duration. Earliest possibility I would project such a capability is, not earlier than 2020, and probably after 2025. This bumps-up against my scenario of the USN having (already) stationed a Squadron (3 ea ?) of LCS (Littoral Combat Ships) at Sao Tome by 2015. That would be part of the Naval element(yet to be organized)of AFRICOM.
No doubt the Chinese WILL develop a blue water Navy capability to help guarantee the safety of all the oil from both Africa and the ME their economy demands and which they are buying up furiously (with our Wal-Mart money!). But it will take time.
I think Uncle Sam will be there first militarily. The Chinese might come in and putter around but it's a far longer way home for them. Of course, if they OWN the property, that's more compelling. This is why the current XOM scenario(s) are interesting. IMHO, some sharing is likely, who ends-up owning how much is the current on-going battle largely invisible to our eyes. Confrontation - is unlikely - no matter who owns what. The time required and expense of establishing deep water wells and their recovery and collection systems are far too much to muck them up. Any interruption of the flow of oil, even today, is a global economic disaster for all. Any "confrontation" will result in the deployment of a few thousand Chinese lawyers. [There's an interesting sidebar...will the Chinese someday be able to out-lawyer the U.S.?]
I would have to say that ERHE has a, if not THE, proverbial catbird's seat.
All IMHO.....of course!
Another Piece of the Puzzle?
While I defer to the expertise of Lady Umbra, I suggest that the recognition of the PRC by STP is on the near horizon and is a significant (if not critical - IMHO) piece of the ERHE puzzle. It solves the problem of having any future investment by SINOPEC in an entity for which the controlling government of a large share of the territory (JDZ) does not officially recognize its motherland. Let's not be silly and deny that the Government of China and SINOPEC are not closely coupled, if not synonymous.
And for the EEZ, the controlling territory IS all STP.
If you think thru the international financial and legal permutations of owning a large piece of property (the oil) where the landlord does not recognize your homeland, it is obviously a legal minefield. How can you work with international law if you don't exist?
My strategic plan as the PRC would certainly include remedying this situation - ASAP. It does take a little time to lay the ground work. At this point the choice between the PRC and ROC (Taiwan)is a zero brainer for STP. (Follow the money.....)
Again - IMHO - the news accounts posted here indicate this event is closer than ever.
Indeed, there is a certain sense of acceleration from many directions. OBO-1 looks more and more like a very expensive ruse. Some of you may recall that I asked a while back how much a rig could drill off-vertical from one spot. Never got an answer then. Now, the Popular Mechanics article answered that question - up to 60 degrees. Some of you folks who have the time
and the understanding, take a look at the location of OBO-1 on the 3-D charts and spin-off a 60 degrees downward cone at the ocean floor level - how far away are those "hot-spots"? Could another 20,000 ft of drill reach anything interesting?
As Mr. T might say - "Stay long and strong, otherwise you be FOOLS!"
I smell oil.
An Interesting Article
Go out and buy the latest issue of Popular Mechanics (Apr 2008).
There's an excellent article on deep sea oil drilling technology by a visit to the Noble Clyde Bouudreaux rig in the Gulf of Mexico. I learned quite a bit about the state of the art. Pretty amazing technology. They are punching a series of wells for Shell in 8,000 feet of water. The Noble Clyde crew seems to have its shxt together.
It totally reinforces the perspective that we better have a very experienced operating partner who knows what they are doing and hires a good drilling rig. I can only reflect this becomes even more important in the ultra-deep water of the EEZ.
I'm not so sure that one can just hire the expertise required, a crew familiar with a particular rig seem to be a significant factor in effectively drilling on a demanding schedule.
My concern is that the crew of the AA will be at least two years "stale" and even with new people, it is going to take time to break into knowledge of the nuances of the "new" AA. Thus, I would doubt they can maintain the schedule suggested by Kosmos (if Kosmos does not end-up with $$$$ problems). The up side is that the AA crew will be learning on Kosmos' dollar.
Assuming that our "rig of opportunity" IS the AA, I am saddened to note that these break-in learning curves are likely going to effect our vessel drilling availability/opportunity - 2009 seems more conservatively realistic and optimistic than 4th Qtr 2008.
The article has an accompanying map which indicates where the future potential elephant fields may be and, of course, no mention of the GoG.
Sigh......another fort-year? Maybe my kids will reap the reward. I'm in for the duration. The potential of the discovery dwarfs any risk. Long and Long....
Remember, it's Africa and African time is poorly understood by our cultural norms.
1 Deg 48' 48.31" N
103 Deg 30' 20.37" E
Don't hit the drill rig when you zoom in! Use the helicopter pad.
The Oracle Speaks....
Oily likes mythological allegories, doesn't he?????? Circe mucks about quite a bit with all sorts of warnings and such. Too many for me to neck-down those applicable.
However, I offer the conjecture that "C" could refer to the Chinese (SINOPEC)?
If so, that undermines many scenarios....but again this is Oily talking. "When Oily speaks, does he make a sound in the forest? Or is that, if a bear farts in the forest, does anybody smell it"
3 in 1
No comments on the Board about Oilphant's suggestion that OBO-1 was actually three different cores obtained by maybe using the same seafloor wellhead (I guess) and slanting off the direction of the drill head two additional times? Or did the drillship move a bit each time? His point was that the Deepwater Discovery was out there a very long time.
I know that directional drilling is possible but, is this not pretty difficult in as much as one has ~1700m of water to be working thru before hitting the bottom of the ocean (dirt)? Also, how much angle-off direction can a drill achieve? Ultra-deep marine drilling is obviously tricky, but then bending the rotating tube thousands of feet down is pretty amazing! Could somebody knowledgeable expand on this technology a bit.
L&S......
EEZ Blocks
Has ST&P put out any info as to location/size of any proposed EEZ Blocks? I've searched a bit but not found anything.
Various GoG/ERHE Topics
If one steps back from the daily yo-yo of share price, there's some interesting stuff going on in the background. It’s not directly connected to price, but it does perhaps offer clues as to who could ultimately partner in developing the various blocks awarded in the GoG. The perceived strength of any partnership could affect the share price. Deepwater drill ships are limited, so a heavy duty partner is going to have an advantage in the ship bidding process and thus could move the proven oil totals more quickly than a group that can only punch a couple of holes every year or two.
First, there's a geo-political game going on between the two Chinas in the GoG. Taiwan or the Republic of China (as you will) appears well entrenched in ST&P; the Peoples’ Republic is firmly ensconced in Nigeria. Let's fast forward to the EEZ auctions. How will this political turfsmanship play out? Remember, Nigeria is not a visible player here. Does SEO have a role? Can the US straddle the issue by not addressing it? This game will become even more intense if the exploratory drilling programs in the JDZ blocks indicate there is likely a mother-motherload in the EEZ. Yeah, it's very deep, but the technology continues to develop as the price per barrel drifts upward in parallel.
I would think as income from the JDZ begins to flow into the ST&P treasury, there may be a move to slow the EEZ bidding process and let the market drive-up the necessary price of a successful bid. A couple of years wait (while not good for us shareholders) could be a $500M windfall for ST&P.
BTW, in a recent NPR report a guest financial expert proposed that the true "value" of a bbl today should be about $65, the $80 level is a result of new commodity-like trading speculation by people who previously traded mostly in metals. But it is what it is. (Maybe for valuation of ERHE it would be more realistic to use this level as a baseline than the current market price - by 2010-2012 it will surely be higher - but why go nuts ($100/bbl evaluations) and lead into question the conclusions of any do-diligencer visiting the board about the believability of Board regulars (– of course we could send them along to Raging Bull.)) Somebody earlier had done a spreadsheet where you could plug in a number of different excursionary numbers and enjoy the resulting dream. Is that still around and been updated with the hard numbers we do know?
Interesting next is the amount and type of foreign aid being provided to ST&P by Japan. It is very infrastructure biased; i.e., power, airfield improvement, port improvement, etc. Not too much emphasis on the social, medical, educational, and other quality-of-life issues. Is Japan acting as a proxy on behalf of the U.S.? Sure, Japan is totally dependent on oil imports - but what's their play in the GoG?
In the same vein, I would expect to see increased Indian interest in the GoG. They have been less active than one would expect.
This leads to further speculation about the U.S.'s perspective and plans about its future in the GoG and ST&P. The 25% of imported oil “goal’ still is out there. The small report from the ST&P media posted here a few days ago about an ongoing U.S. Navy underwater survey is, to me, a provocative indication. It would suggest that the Navy has plans to do some serious vessel basing in ST in the future. An occasional visit by a frigate or support vessel does not demand an underwater obstacle survey out to 50m depths. That's 150 feet deep dude - way more than any ship draws. Is this a submarine usage associated requirement? I don't see basing, but possibly visits for shore leave or crew swaps. (Any Squids on this board to offer more informed speculation?) So I stay with my previous prediction about a U.S. Navy base with a Squadron (?) of LCSs eventually homeported in ST.
I’m still trolling the net for info about the U.S. Navy provided radar in ST and the whole concept of a GoG wide, shared surveillance network. An interesting perturbation to achieve this capability is to look at what the use of tethered aerostats could provide. Two – three on production platforms or on FPSOs (Floating Production Storage and Off-Loading vessels) in Blocks 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6 and later the EEZ, would provide relatively inexpensive 7/24/360 overlaping coverage for the whole region. As we eventually draw down in Iraq, we’ll have some “surplus” systems. Ask anybody in the business, persistent surveillance is the name of the game. When I get some time I’ll cook-up a Google Earth file to demonstrate this concept. (This is relevant to ERHE downstream because hopefully MEND-like raids like those that plague the Delta and disrupt production [$$$$ flow] can be limited/avoided).
Finally, where does AFRICOM ultimately base itself (its Headquarters)? The explanation of “no permanent military base in Africa” does not make sense with the asserting of locating a headquarters in Africa. I fail to see the difference between the two. Probably semantic spinning leftover from the Rumsfield era. A 30 year temporary installation?????
We note the flurry of recent NIMBY statements by many African states about such a presence (read a nationalistic agenda – flog the U.S. at minimum cost – they love it down on the farm! Then - you're sorta welcome - how much aid $ is tied to this?); but, as yet, no comment from ST&P, which leaves the door open. As has been pointed out, the miles of open sea provides an excellent anti-terrorist “moat”. While the impact of the commercial oil & gas infrastructure development in 2010-2020 (probably initially logistics storage, administrative offices, and lodging) onshore in the islands will provide significant income; consider what a permanent party civilian/military of, say, 400 personnel and dependents would do for the economy. Jobs for STeans in support roles would easily employ several thousands of citizens. While the military population there is much larger, look at Guam as an example.
The major geographic negative about the positive of ST&P is its isolation from major air/sea hubs; i.e., it is not one. So we’ll see what happens. At this point 30% odds for HQ AFRICOM.
You may scream Imperialism, but we still gotta drive those SUVs. (Sorry Umbra – but, in any case, God Save the Queen!)
Enuf’ ranting. I’ll be lurking around until I have some new stuff to offer.
Long & Strong
P Shepherd
Been away for a while, it looks like the coming week may be interesting.
Since nobody else has, I offer a simpler possible decryption of Oilphant's latest puzzle.
The "!" (exclamation mark) indicates that we should believe the veracity of Oily's prediction. I believe he had offered us the acquisition share price at this level before. He wants us to know he is CORRECT - before and now. I base this on his reaction which resulted in an uncharacteristically lengthy (3-4 sentences) posting a few months ago when he said "Nah! Nah! I was (am) right. You doubters pound sand!" (Paraphrasing and interpretation of his words - the post was many thousands :) ago & I don't even remember the issue).
As for the "/20" - how about a 1 for 20 reverse split? I doubt any of us would be pleased with that at this point.
I find particularly interesting the case made for US Govt strategic involvement based on the "25% of future needs" verbiage that has surfaced. I bet there are USG agencies who know exactly what's up with OBO-1 and the OBO-X's (if they were drilled). They probably have the drilling logs. I concur that jurisdictionally the involvement of the DHS (the Congressional $$ holders anyway) is very, very out in left field. Has Dick Cheney ever trout fished in San Tome? We do know he has had closed door meetings with Big Oil and so the low visibility access is there. Has Langenkamp ever been listed on the Secret Service White House access logs? Within the last couple of years? There's an interesting FOI request.
In reality, all will be dust in the wind by mid-week, we'll have some extra beer and cigarette money or not.
I'm thinking out loud here, I'm long & strong but am open minded about all possibilities.
Here's the report. Interesting reading.
http://ciponline.org/NIGERIA_FINAL.pdf
Oops! I didn't read all the way through the board messages before posing this....Homeport put the link up earlier.
Anyhow, "our" Congressman Jefferson's (D-ERHE) :) name pop's-up therein.
I believe a few months ago I suggested this would happen. It would appear that maybe the Taiwanese are doing the U.S. a favor?
That's from ~7,000 feet now to ~10,800 feet (bet it will be widened also! And, how big will the "park for airplanes" [which in aviation talk = a ramp] be? Room 'enuf for a few C-17's to RON?)
Guess that makes me one up on Oily. :)!
Excerpt from the Pentagon briefing (2/7/2007) on the establishment of AFRICOM:
Q: By headquarters on the continent, do you also mean island nations off the coast?
MR. HENRY: The island nations around the coast will be included as part of AFRICOM. And so we would -- the guidance and the intent is to formally set up the command, when the conditions are appropriate, within the area of responsibility. So that would include the island nations. There's not necessarily a bias to go there. But we are at the point now of looking at all the different options and beginning initial discussions with the countries in the theater.
MR. WHITMAN: Perhaps a couple more, and then we'll --
Q: Do they speak Portuguese in this one, the ones you're considering?
MR. HENRY: There's nothing that's been ruled out yet.
Ryan Henry - Principal Undersecretary of Defense for Policy
Watch this space.........
I have not seen anybody on the board comment on the possible turn of events resulting from NASDAQ buying the LSE. Apparently a hostile takeover attempt may close on 16 Feb 2007. NASDAQ only needs an additional 20% to own the exchange.
I would guess this would vastly complicate the suggested isolation from the U.S. Government that some board members project as a beneficial result were ERHE to move to this exchange.
There could possibility be some better visibility for the company since the LSE is currently reputed globally to lead in funding start-up ventures. This could lead to buying action as a result of increased visibility. Any other pluses or minuses?
Is there such a time interval as a fortyear? If not, let it be created for the purpose of this board. It may be that solid information on the blocks sufficient to be confirmed reserves may not congeal until 2009.
Long & growing longer.....
This board needs a bartender in Port Harcourt with big ears.
LOL!
Maybe OPL = Oil Production Lease?
How about Oily having a source in MEND? Suggest that AHBL (sorta) in Port Harcourt yesterday....?????
Working the issue. There is a U.S. Navy technology - ROTHR - Relocatable Over The Horizon Radar - that would provide pretty complete coverage of the entire JDZ from ST or P. They had three systems at one time in Texas, Virginia, and Puerto Rico. I believe the PR system got shut down as part of the Vieques settlement. $17M sounds a bit light to put a similar system in ST, but maybe they are going to refurbish and install the PR system? Raytheon is the OEM for the system.
The two active systems in the U.S. are chiefly used for southwards surviellance of the drug trade routes.
One factor does mitigate against the deployment of an ROTHR in San Tome - it's a very complex system to operate and to analyze the data from it. The hands-on training of San Tomeisans (?) (San Tomeites ?) will require at least 3-4 years of close collaboration; however, that could indicate, "we're here for a long time, not a good time" which is another indication of a strategic long term commitment by the U.S. (How "tight" is U.S. Big Oil to the U.S. Govt? Lotsa speculation abounds - doubt the real deal will ever be revealed - but it keeps the conspiracy fans busy.) Any good San Tomean EEs?
BTW, I will bet that eventually an assignment to ST/P with the U.S. Military will be sought after - a tropical island with a slow life pace is usually also a "good time" and a welcome break from other more demanding assignments.