Chinese Navy in GoG?
Indeed, Lady Umbra, a provocative scenario, but from a capabilities perspective it is currently impossible. The Chinese Navy has yet to demonstrate any logistic capability to support out-of-area activities. They don't even venture into the Indian Ocean. Yes, perhaps a port-to-port visit voyage working their way around the periphery of Africa would be a first initiative, but no time soon.
Such a show the flag event is largely meaningless. One has to be able to demonstrate a presence for at least several months duration. Earliest possibility I would project such a capability is, not earlier than 2020, and probably after 2025. This bumps-up against my scenario of the USN having (already) stationed a Squadron (3 ea ?) of LCS (Littoral Combat Ships) at Sao Tome by 2015. That would be part of the Naval element(yet to be organized)of AFRICOM.
No doubt the Chinese WILL develop a blue water Navy capability to help guarantee the safety of all the oil from both Africa and the ME their economy demands and which they are buying up furiously (with our Wal-Mart money!). But it will take time.
I think Uncle Sam will be there first militarily. The Chinese might come in and putter around but it's a far longer way home for them. Of course, if they OWN the property, that's more compelling. This is why the current XOM scenario(s) are interesting. IMHO, some sharing is likely, who ends-up owning how much is the current on-going battle largely invisible to our eyes. Confrontation - is unlikely - no matter who owns what. The time required and expense of establishing deep water wells and their recovery and collection systems are far too much to muck them up. Any interruption of the flow of oil, even today, is a global economic disaster for all. Any "confrontation" will result in the deployment of a few thousand Chinese lawyers. [There's an interesting sidebar...will the Chinese someday be able to out-lawyer the U.S.?]
I would have to say that ERHE has a, if not THE, proverbial catbird's seat.
All IMHO.....of course!
