Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
Pipeline issue resolved
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=avxwpto4whcQ&refer=home
http://uk.reuters.com/article/oilRpt/idUKN2924290520071129
http://charts.barchart.com/chart.asp?sym=CLF8&data=Z30&jav=adv&vol=Y&divd=Y&evnt=adv&grid=Y&late=y%1Cy&code=BSTK&org=stk&fix=
We are sorry for the families of dead workers.
Schwarzenegger dealing out a freeze on subprime rates
http://www.reuters.com/article/businessNews/idUSN3043160720071130?feedType=RSS&feedName=businessNews
Last time the speard on subprime rates, or on junk-bond rates rose to present level was in 2001. When they started to fall stock markets rallied. Longer term outlook depends on how fast the credit industry regains confidence of creditors and profitability of economy is maintained.
Here the historic comparison 2007/2001:
2007
2001
No sign of panic selling volume too
Down volumes just over 80% on major markets
ADVANCES & DECLINES
NYSE AMEX NASDAQ BB
Advancing Issues 905 (26%) 373 (28%) 875 (28%) 583 (30%)
Declining Issues 2,475 (72%) 871 (65%) 2,106 (68%) 841 (43%)
Unchanged Issues 69 (2%) 91 (7%) 130 (4%) 518 (27%)
Total Issues 3,449 1,335 3,111 1,942
New Highs 28 46 39 189
New Lows 528 166 348 300
Up Volume 617,977,219 (15%) 108,604,956 (13%) 469,194,914 (23%) 349,946,737 (23%)
Down Volume 3,419,423,335 (84%) 702,319,321 (86%) 1,546,966,556 (76%) 674,942,632 (44%)
Unchanged Volume 10,660,968 (0%) 6,189,221 (1%) 18,573,581 (1%) 506,322,449 (33%)
REDUCED INFLATION means there is room for interest rate cutes, which room is not necessarily used. In the Fed view, it would be preferable e.g. oil and other basic materials would come back to lower prices by themselves, meaning slower growth of world economy. In Europe they already feel the impact of the lower $ for products sold to the US.
Futures are up at this hour, despite dismal "back-of-the-envelope" estimate from Goldman-Sachs
http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20071116/bs_nm/economy_us_credit_dc;_ylt=AqWH2YNNqpgM1IOIk3U63mvv5rEF
http://www2.barchart.com/mktcom.asp?section=indices:
S&P 500 Index (SPZ7) Dec 07 1447.20 +9.70 1438.90 1451.00 1437.30 05:29
Mini S&P 500 Index (ESZ7) Dec 07 1447.25 +9.75 1438.50 1451.25 1437.50 05:29
Nasdaq 100 (NDZ7) Dec 07 2042.00 +14.00 2030.50 2050.00 2030.50 05:29
E-Mini Nasdaq (NQZ7) Dec 07 2041.50 +13.50 2030.00 2049.25 2030.00 05:29
Dow Industrials (E) (ZDZ7) Dec 07 13077 +84 13012 13096 12995 05:29
Mini-Sized Dow (YMZ7) Dec 07 13072 +79 13017 13096 12997 05:29
E-Mini S&P Midcap (EWZ7) Dec 07 846.10 +7.20 838.80 847.80 838.60 05:29
Russell 2000 (RLZ7) Dec 07 757.20 +6.60 751.10 757.20 750.75 05:29
E-Mini Russell 2000 (EZZ7) Dec 07 755.00 +4.40 751.00 757.70 750.40 05:29
90:10 Up vs down volume on both major markets
= reversal day.
NYSE NASDAQ
Up Volume 3,826,338,745 (93%) 2,480,432,088 (91%)
Down Volume 264,825,102 (6%) 224,196,964 (8%)
http://finance.yahoo.com/advances
Yes, looks good for next week.
D+ & Volume
added a few positions today, mainly stocks that have been hammered down in a exaggerated manner (FMD, BLWD) this week for reason of not surpassing expectations.
I think it is straddle and strangle. Both strategies are explained in
http://www.riskglossary.com/
under the respective terms.
Basically they are bets that the value of the underlying will change.
BTY Options are a too complicated stuff for me to handle.
SNDK Support at 40+/-
Volume moght be drying up.
Look at long bullish flag, should a bullish flag not show +D?
May be a point to discuss?
Look also at the yellow line.
When I calculate by
http://www.iqauto.com/cgi-bin/pain.pl
The result is 51
When I look at http://www.schaeffersresearch.com/streetools/indicators/equity_oi_config.aspx
I would guess 53
Seems strange to me normallay the 2 results are closer together. explanation could that because there so many puts between 44 and 48, the calculation yields different result from common sense. The few minutes time difference between the two sets of data of delayed data could be other cause, but is not since reading remain the same.
Market thinks SNDK will disappoint/not +surprise
http://www.marketintelligencecenter.com/articles/449675
but it could be artfically been driven down. Read membership fees:
http://sevensummitsstrategicinvestments.com/(y1ioov55n4mruv45pfg0rh55)/default.aspx
European markets mostly up at midday:
^SSMI 9,209.89 27.59 +0.30%
^GDAXI 8,036.35 49.78 +0.62%
^TECDAX 1,013.50 7.05 +0.70%
^FTSE 6,677.80 44.80 +0.68%
^FCHI 5,870.25 31.76 +0.54%
^STOXX50E 4,474.28 31.67 +0.71%
Asian Markets Trading at or near Resistance.
Will they they take the lead or mimick US markets earning season's jitters? Judged from the past the second case is more likely.
Asian Markets Trading at or near Resistance.
Will they they take the lead or mimick US markets earning season's jitters? Judged from the past the second case is more likely.
Asian Markets Trading at or near Resistance.
Will they they take the lead or mimick US markets earning season's jitters? Judged from the past the second case is more likely.
Asian Markets Trading at or near Resistance.
Will they they take the lead or mimick US markets earning season's jitters? Judged from the past the second case is more likely.
Asian Markets Trading at or near Resistance.
Will they they take the lead or mimick US markets earning season's jitters? Judged from the past the second case is more likely.
Asian Markets Trading at or near Resistance.
Will they they take the lead or mimick US markets earning season's jitters? Judged from the past the second case is more likely.
Just a thought: May be good times for some bottom fishing in driven down markets.
Agree we have sick market, only positive point there is nNew Highs are outnumbering largely New Lows. Meaning there is no other like before housing and financials who have driven down the market before. En plus bond market closed for Columbus Day, Eco news concentrated by the end of the week so new money is scared to enter the market.
Let's see it positive the Bull is just taking rest. We need to see first half the earnings seasing in order to assess the outlook.
Goldman-Sachs somehow has to please their big customers they talked into big short positions. Will they still believe them?
They seem not to be succesful.
Junk-Bond Spread is coming down:
Commitment of traders - is picture starting to change?
Small speculators and commercials are fully long. This is seen on S&P500 and S&P500mini respectively.
But large speculators seem starting to roll over their short positions on to small speculators as seen on S&P500mini: Short positions of small investors grew in the last 3 weeks. Is smart money looking for dumb money to take over their short postions?
S&P500 - mini contracts
S&P500 - standard contracts
ETF Money Inflow largely positive last week
Emerging Markets and Hang Seng shooting up most after rate cut
Emerging Markets and Hang Seng shooting up most after rate cut
Emerging Markets and Hang Seng shooting up most after rate cut
The extent of present short positions is also reflected in the history chart of the Total Put/Call-ratio:
This basically - by contrarian view - bullish picture is tainted by bad news dribbling in every day. All orchestrated by the big shots, but did one notice: the market is no more really reacting to bad news. Looking forward to next Commitment of Traders Report. Bottom has been reached.
In the view of the present credit crisis it is may be worth to have look at a history chart of the junk bond spread. The junk-bond-spread is the interest difference baa-rated bonds and the 3-month treasury rate.
As you may note the percentage-wise drop is lower than in 1998, this due to the hefty short positions (from Greenspan's alleged swiss bank account) )
Two interesting links
Dr. Doom says not / no more to short US Market, while fearing a bubble in emerging markets and admits that markets did not go down as far as he hoped.
http://www.ameinfo.com/131614.html & also
http://www.ameinfo.com/128606.html
NYT fears recession based on coincidence of job market numbers and yield spreads and says the data is insufficient to be significant:
http://www.nytimes.com/2007/09/15/business/15chart.html?ref=business
When as you say news agendas are used to create little shake-outs it is good news: big shorters using opportunity to cover. But a hefty short squeeze would be better ....
This was wrong in EU: North Rock has been bailed out by BoE.
North Rock is British mortgage lender.
You find the story In:
http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20070914/bs_nm/northernrock_funding_dc_10;_ylt=Aie6zE.Csxo2by5Ql_HS0JAF1v...
On your weekly $VIX there is D- which is good:
1Best - Rosh Hannah
You mean a last hour - hopefully bullish - wave might be in the stars?
1Best AMZN
did you note, AMZN is forming a kind Bulls Horn Formation in the last 6 weeks.
CHF_USD Currency Outlook
SNB faces tough decision
The Swiss economic indicators have remained generally firm with the KOF leading index holding close to the 2.00 level in August while GDP growth was 2.8% in the year to the second quarter, supported by robust growth in exports. The latest inflation data recorded a slowdown in the annual inflation rate to 0.4% in the year to August from 0.4% which will ease pressure for higher interest rates. The credit-related stresses will have some negative impact on growth while the firmer Swiss currency will also curb inflation. The National Bank will face a difficult policy decision this month as the bank will still be concerned over the medium-term inflation prospects, and there will not be another scheduled meeting until December. Even if the central bank does not increase interest rates, the reduced expectations for global interest rates will provide support to the Swiss currency. Market interest in global carry trades will remain much lower in the short term, especially while credit-related stresses persist and this will provide important Swiss franc support. There is also likely to be an underlying de-leveraging of risk which will underpin the currency. Overall, the franc should continue to extend its recovery against the Euro and the US currency is unlikely to make strong headway against the dollar even with near-term support realistic close to the 1.18 level.
Risk factors:
* Increased risk aversion could propel the franc sharply higher.
* Further deterioration in US dollar confidence would support the
franc.
* A major banking failure would support the Swiss currency.
* Easing credit-related stresses would reduce near-term franc
support.
Forecasts:
Currency Spot(11/09) 1-month_forecast 3-month_forecast 6-month forecast
US$/CHF 1.1850 1.1880 1.2110 1.1760
HD completes Stock buy-back plan
and improves earnings outlook.
http://www.thestreet.com/_yahoo/newsanalysis/retail/10378714.html?cm_ven=YAHOO&cm_cat=FREE&c...
Billionaire buys a chunk of Bear Stearns.
http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20070910/bs_nm/bearstearns_investor_dc_6;_ylt=AsQL9EKbtwAPOSVNvlRpwT8F1vA...
Meaning as long-term investor it is time to buy
Amsterdam Stock Exchange, part of Euronext-NYSE
I Start with oldest Stock Exchange:
History of Amsterdam stock exchanges
Established 1602, the Amsterdam stock exchange is regarded as the oldest exchange in the world. Share trading originated in Amsterdam, where the ‘Verenigde Oostindische Compagnie’, a large shipping company, was in permanent need of funds to finance the shipping of goods from the Far East. The shares in this company were the first traded shares in the world, and at the start of the seventeenth century they were heavily traded on the Damrak, a street in Amsterdam located a stone’s throw from the Dutch exchange’s current premises at Beursplein 5. At first, only shares that could be delivered immediately were traded, but soon futures and options were being traded as well. Investors could buy early call and put options granting them the right to buy or sell shares in the future, for which they paid a premium.
Here the image of the oldest stock:
The increasing trade in commodities and financial instruments led to a growing demand for a building to house the exchange. In 1607, the city council commissioned the architect Hendrick de Keyser to design a commodities exchange, which opened in 1611. Trading now had a proper home for the very first time. During the seventeenth century, the importance of the stock exchange grew steadily as more shares (including those of the West Indian Company founded in 1621) and bonds came on the market. By the end of the seventeenth century, the stock exchange had a permanent place at the heart of the financial sector. The first exchange building eventually fell into disrepair and was abandoned in 1835, after which trading took place at quite a few locations until the present building was opened in 1913.
Here The former Stock Exchange building was the Beurs van Berlage:
Source:
http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/a/ab/BeursVanBerlage.jpg
The Amsterdam Stock Exchange Association (‘Vereniging voor de Effectenhandel’) was founded in 1851 to organise and regulate share trading in the Netherlands. Only members of this association were allowed to trade directly on the stock exchange. There was a definite need for a regulatory body, as more and more financial products were being traded on the markets at this time.
More than a century later, in 1978, the Amsterdam Stock Exchange Association launched the European Options Exchange, the first options exchange in Europe and only the second in the world. Today Amsterdam still maintains a strong presence in derivatives trading. The Amsterdam Stock Exchange Association and the European Options Exchange merged in 1997, after the stock exchange abandoned its membership structure. The new company, Amsterdam Exchanges, operated both the stock market and the derivatives market. Amsterdam Exchanges compiled the AEX index, a Dutch blue chip index, and adopted a one-stop shopping model, which included clearing and settlement services, a central securities depository and data services, to provide investors with a constant flow of high-level information. In 2000, Amsterdam Exchanges merged with the Brussels and Paris exchanges to form Euronext N.V., the first pan-European exchange.
Later, in 2006 Euronext merged with NYSE in a 20 billion merger.
Sources:
http://www.euronext.com/editorial/wide/editorial-1993-EN.html
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Amsterdam_Stock_Exchange
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/5039412.stm
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Beurs_van_Berlage
Cameco
is planning share repurchasing:
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.asp?message_id=22662809