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Actually ignore my question... stupid question. 10/31 doesn’t matter.
We’ve made it.
% chance we are late on the 10k?
Seriously man... We just need that sweet PR to officially connect the dots for the masses.
The Government document alone doesn't suffice.. All you get is 48 pages of Spanish showing that all permits and consignments for a $7 Billion dollar project have been issued to an UNKNOWN COMPANY
The picture doesn't suffice! All you get is that there are plans to build pipelines to stretch the Isthmus by an also UNKNOWN COMPANY.
As much as we have loathed our PR's, they have served as the golden set of KEYS to unlock doors that didn't even show up until months and sometimes even years down the road!
This week, for the first time ever, we have actual evidence that "everything is done"... Ejecución.
Hey PipeDREAMER, how's this for some mathematics:
Government document showing Isthmus Project in Execution Phase from 8/27 + tweeted photo of Ward with Isthmus management two weeks later on 9/10 = $3/share worst case scenario from just 1 Project
Ward said in the “Needs over wants” article that all of his projects split the net profit 50/50 with the Mexican government. The isthmus PR reveals that once all aspects of the Isthmus are up and running (in 18-24 months) the net income to the Mexican government will be $1.4B annually. Therefore, there will also be $1.4B to the Mirage/NHL & BBI partnership. 75% goes to BBI and 25% to the Mirage/NHL partnership and that split 50/50 = $175,000,000 annual income. Based off Penny’s chart in the About Section of this page, with a worst case scenario P/E ratio of 10, that lands us just shy of $3/share worst case scenario from just 1 Project.
Gov doc from 8/27 showing the Isthmus Project in the Execution Phase (pg 42):
Click Here
Tweeted photo of Ward, Jesus, & (likely) Salvador Moreno w/ the Isthmus Project management from 9/10:
Click here
Awesome Penny!
Is that the wall paper I keep hearing about?
You bet!
The consignments for the isthmus have to be under NHL.. That really is the only way… At least that I can think of
Hope for the big PR, but brace for November.
At least we know as the announcement approaches, the permitting and consignments on the monster Isthmus project are DONE. Apparently, this is the pre-requisite for the projects being announced.
Imo if we are to get something this week or the next; it would have to be PR.
Which at this point, it would be an important one!
I hope so!!!!
A second set of Infrastructure projects will be presented in November:
10/5/2020
Article excerpts:
In November a second package of projects of the Infrastructure Plan could be ready, some more in the energy sector, said Carlos Salazar Lomelín, president of the Business Coordinating Council (CCE) on Monday.
The first installment of 39 projects (from 10/5) includes some of the 147 projects announced on November 26, 2019, which had to be rethought given the impact of the pandemic and the economic crisis it contracted. There are 32 new projects and seven already in execution, as explained in a press conference (10/5).
“In this package (from 10/5), you have the peace of mind that all permitting is already completed. There are five energy projects, today they are projects in alliance with Pemex and they will continue to be announced, in November we would hope to deliver a second package that could include more within the energy sector, "he said.
Full text here:
https://www.elfinanciero.com.mx/economia/proximos-proyectos-del-plan-de-infraestructura-se-entregarian-en-noviembre-adelanta-el-cce
*note: All 39 projects announced on 10/5 were at least in the Process of Analyses phase and apparently all of these projects still had received their permits. Our San Fernando project was in the Process of Analyses phase as of 8/27, but the storage facility had already progressed to Authorized, and the Isthmus had already advanced to Execution. Knowing this, we will be at the top of the list for the November announcement.
Not sure on the process, DC, but since the Isthmus project is in the Execution phase, then (I personally think) we already have the consignments for it.
Only thing that throws me off is... where is the 8k?
All is good, but I need to correct two things:
1. This document confirms that all of our projects are apart of the National Infrastructure Plan. We obviously will still be mentioned in the Isthmus Master Plan Presentation (if not by name, then by description), but the formal announcement will be from the National Infrastructure Plan presentations.
2. The Authorization Phase - Looks like this phase is the "issuance of permits and authorizations". Which, as of 8/27, we were in the process of. While it is probable that by now (49 days later) we have all permits for each of our projects, we can know with certainty that our $7 Billion dollar isthmus project is in the Execution phase... all permits obtained.
You are correct! Page 47:
Phase: Authorization
Location: Tamaulipas
Description:
Storage System open Access Subway and Pipelines for Commercial Use of Natural Gas
MDP: 26,400 ($1.2B USD)
Yes, me too!!!
Very - we need to look closer. See if you can find the storage facility in there!
I refuse to acknowledge you as Pipe dream LOSER!!!
Thanks TaGc! Jetfan, I personally don't think we're going to have an announcement from MX this week.
IF Ward goes to Mx, then of course, we could receive a PR.
Check this out:
SHCP published this list of projects on 8/27:
https://www.energiaadebate.com/file/2131/index.pdf
Page 2:
Defines the 5 phases of project evaluation in Mexico:
1.Contingents: Visualized Opportunity
2. Preparation: Private investment mechanism defined; sequence identification authorizations. initial evaluation.
3. Process of Analysis: Development of feasibility scope, cost and time. Definitive evaluation.
4. Authorization: All permits and necessary authorizations are COMPLETED.
5. Execution Phase: Start of construction
Page 42:
The Transoceanic Pipeline of the Isthmus of Tehuantepec is shown to be in the Authorization Phase.
Page 47:
The San Fernando/Cactus Pipeline is shown to be in the Process of Analysis Phase.
11 days prior of this document being released the El Economista had released their article about the Transoceanic Gas Pipeline in its connection to Mirage... Then, this very day on 8/27 Mirage released our latest PR about the LOI gas supply contract with J & E. Coincidence? Notice that the gas going to J & E in Chiapas comes from Salina Cruz.. which comes from the Transoceanic Gas line.. which gets it from the San Fernando connection in Coatzacoalcos.
Gasducto Transoceanico:
https://www.eleconomista.com.mx/opinion/Gasoducto-Interoceanico-20200816-0067.html
J&E Admin:
https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2020/08/27/2085009/0/en/Mirage-Energy-Signs-Letter-of-Intent-to-Provide-200-MMcf-Day-of-Natural-Gas-to-J-E-Administration-Integral-S-De-L-De-C-V-in-Mexico.html
Sounds to me we have the Transoceanic Gas Line in the bag.. AUTHORIZED. On Ward's next trip to Mexico, I bet we are cleaning up the permitting and ESPECIALLLY the consignments process for the San Fernando Cactus Line. Makes sense that process would be a bit longer. Not going to lie, i'm very surprised that the Transoceanic Gas Line permits were completed as of 8/27. Reading between the lines has never been more clear.
Wow, new article? You can see the progression towards turning the projects over to IP.. has clearly taken time with Mexico and persistence from Ward.
Can you post the link please?
How many Taco Tuesday’s will 10/13 be for you, pipedreamer?
Please.. looking back makes me want to vomit.
Hopefully we will all soon be thanking Ward for leading us on and on and on! I honestly couldn’t have made it without the ever fleeting promise of “next week!”
Haha today is the 90th day, indeed. And ironically, Ward came back from MX last night. Doesn’t he always stay until at least Friday or even thru the weekend? Why come home a day early, no work left to do?
Makes me feel like permits were completed this week.
Didn't Ward go down to Mexico on August 10th? I bet that's when the permitting process resumed. That would leave approximately 54-60 days from that point to get to day 90... And if we use 60 days, well, that's TODAY.
Jetfan, i'll give you my theory:
The C||T sounded more than ready to present that Master Plan when Rafael Marin was interviewed about it on 9/4.. he stated the only thing that would hold it up from being presented in one month (and possibly before the end of September) was a spike in COVID cases... Well, here we are a month and some change later with no hard date and no spike in COVID cases in Mexico OR in Singapore. So, what's the hold up?
The point of the Isthmus Master Plan Presentation is to present the Logistical Platforms of the Isthmus. We know on the cargo side, three companies came together to operate within 1 entity. It is strongly believed that Mexico is requiring the very same setup for the petrochemicals; may I suggest PEMEX, C||T, & Northern Hemisphere Logistics? VERY REASONABLE.
IMO they don't want to present the plans yet because some aspect of the three headed monster is not solidified yet. We KNOW Mirage is involved, its obvious.. the picture of Ward and the C||T discussing the new oil lines from 9/10 is full proof. But there's something about the partership that is not presentation ready. Are they wanting to have Permits and consignments first? Possibly. The CRE website says it takes 90 days to get natural gas pipeline permits. Mirage started the process in March and shortly thereafter the country shut down... Horacio said in mid June that they were 30-40% completed with the process but were in a hiatus until the gov offices opened back up.. which happened in August, hence why Ward has been there constantly ever since. From the time they opened back up, we needed 54 to 60 days to complete the final 60-70% of the process. We are standing right on top of day #90. This should be completed ANY DAY. So, IMO once we see Mexico declare a hard date to present the Ithmus Master plan, news that the permits & consignments have been obtained is imminent! Is Ward allowed to release his PR before the announcement? Seems by SEC laws he'd have to, but by AMLO's wishes he can't. So worst case scenario he releases the Permits & consignment PR the day following the Isthmus Master Plan Presentation.. which should be shortly after day #90.
YES! One more big takeaway (to me):
Notice how they are shipping cargo into the southern most state of Chiapas? As this is the gateway into Central America? Well, Ward gave us the tip of the hat in releasing the LOI gas supply contract with J & E in Chiapas. It seems that everywhere the C||T is going to ship cargo it also will petrochemicals. THIS LEADS ME TO BELIEVE THAT THE $5 BILLION DOLLAR CENTRAL AMERICAN GAS PIPELINE BELONGS TO MIRAGE.
Good morning, Mirage - While we still don't have a scheduled hard date for the Isthmus Master Plan Presentation (I have a theory for that), our projects are CLEARLY and FINALLY moving into the center of focus.
Just yesterday, the Transoceanic Gas Line was being spoken about AGAIN. Remember the quiet days when the Isthmus was only about cargo distribution/storage? Now that those plans have been solidified and construction is underway, we have seen a shift in focus. All eyes are turning to the the key logistical platform of the Isthmus, the petrochemicals distribution & storage. Below is an article covering a very relevant meeting from yesterday. There are some golden nuggets in here, including (potentially) our Isthmus start date. Cheers!
Interoceanic Corridor of the Isthmus of Tehuantepec will detonate the regional and national economy
Deputies meet with the person in charge of the project to learn about the benefits in the south of the country
10/08/2020
• Deputies meet with the person in charge of the project to learn about the benefits in the south of the country
• They consider it a priority for the population, MSMEs and job creation
The Southern Border Affairs Commission, chaired by deputy Raúl Eduardo Bonifaz Moedano (Morena) met virtually with the general director of the Interoceanic Corridor of the Isthmus of Tehuantepec, Rafael Marín Mollinedo, in order to know the benefits that this work could detonate in border entities.
Bonifaz Moedano indicated that it is required to make known what is being done in the Interoceanic Corridor and asked the project owner to set a date for a meeting with business groups, schools and civil society from the states involved, especially Oaxaca.
Deputy Benjamín Robles Montoya (PT), secretary of the Commission, indicated that the project is undoubtedly one of the most important, not only in the south, but for the entire country, so he asked how many jobs are being created so far in 2020, as well as for 2021 and 2022.
He said it must be recognized that the millions of dollars invested have not served the majority of the population. "You cannot speak of large investments if they are not translated into concrete actions for citizens," he said.
In turn, Marín Mollinedo explained that the project contemplates the construction of 10 industrial parks along the corridor, as well as a gas pipeline to supply them, since there is not enough gas service capacity.
A liquefied gas plant will also be built in Salina Cruz, Oaxaca, by the private initiative. "It is in the process of acquiring the land for these 10 industrial parks," he specified.
He informed that at the Salina Cruz refinery an electricity generation plant will be built with the gas pipeline, and the steam will be sold to Pemex to be used in refining. The projects will create jobs and economically develop the region.
He indicated that as the project progresses, the resources will serve areas such as tourism, agriculture, and cooperatives, which will also affect development, the construction of schools, technological institutes and housing.
He assured that with the companies that arrive there will be demand for raw materials, which may also be sent to the United States market for commercialization.
“It will require labor and local, micro and medium enterprises, which will be given priority; they are the ones who will provide services to the largest, ”he commented.
Alejandro Álvarez Reyes, head of the Railway Transport Regulatory Agency, pointed out that the conditions exist for Chiapas to be part of the Interoceanic Corridor, because it already has the infrastructure, through the connection of the K line.
He considered that an intermodal route would help the Isthmus project, since the entity is the gateway to Central America, which will allow a large part of the merchandise that arrives by truck to be transferred by train.
He affirmed that Chiapas can and must be an important actor that works in synergy with this project, since it has the conditions for it.
José Sánchez Pérez, general director of the Tehuantepec Isthmus Railroad, assured that they have initiated talks with the Guatemala Railroad, in order to connect them with the Mexican railways of the project.
Within the south-southeast development program, the train is a priority. He affirmed that the current works, in their five contracts, are generating 800 direct jobs and 3,200 indirect jobs this year, while for the second half of 2021 they will be 1,200 direct and 5,000 indirect.
The businessman Carlos Alberto Vila Serrano reported that in six months the construction of a petroleum distribution center will begin, which will bring 10 thousand direct jobs and 15 thousand indirect ones.
He announced that of an investment of two billion dollars of private capital, 30 percent, that is, 600 million dollars, will be national capital. It is a development opportunity, especially for the Chiapas coast, which would enhance the Interoceanic Corridor, he added.
Carlos Salazar Estrada, Undersecretary of Industrial Development and Attraction of Investments of the Government of Chiapas, expressed the willingness to incorporate the entity into this work. He announced that it is planned to build an intermodal terminal in Ciudad Hidalgo, for which he requested the support of the legislators, in order to have the labeled resources.
Rafael Castillejos, from the Business Council for Productivity, said that the calls for meetings should be open, in order to have the information at hand, so he asked to join the project.
Maribel Miceli, president of the Association of Professional Women of the Construction Industry AC, asked the Legislature for better conditions towards MSMEs, because in this type of works those sacrificed were always the micro-entrepreneurs who were given minor contracts, and even, they were not paid him.
comunicacionnoticias.diputados.gob.mx/comunicacion/index.php/boletines/corredor-interoceanico-del-istmo-de-tehuantepec-detonara-la-economia-regional-y-nacional#gsc.tab=0
Today Chris Lenton & Sergio Chapa were discussing the isthmus as an alternative to the Panama Canal and Cape Horn routes.
Our Transoceanic Gas Pipeline is at the center!
Mexico’s Public-Private Infrastructure Plan Includes LNG Export Project https://t.co/NUEMWNaVmn
— Chris Lenton (@lenton_chris) October 7, 2020
Just realized that Monday’s announcement not only points to our Transoceanic Gas Pipeline, but also is a huge tee up for the upcoming Isthmus Master Plan Presentation.
I topped off my position today. Feeling like a smart man myself. To Mars!
According to what? I mean I sure hope that’s the case, but we need an updated timeframe from MX as to when the Master Plan will be presented. The last we heard was on 9/4 and that was “in about a month, and possibly before the end of September.”
Then there’s the possibility of a PR updating us on the funding..
Both move the needle!
According to what? I mean sure hope that’s the case, but we need an updated timeframe from MX as to when the Master Plan will be presented. The last we heard was on 9/4 and that was “in about a month, and possibly before the end of September.”
Then there’s the possibility of a PR updating us on the funding..
Both move the needle!
Beautiful!!!
End of next week?
Locked and loaded, Stink!
Just waiting for our update out of Mexico.
Over the past two months, Ward has been in Mexico constantly, just about every week. We can then at least know that things are happening. And by the size of our deals, the things that are happening must be BIG.
I really believe we are right there.. in the 12th hour.
Just realized that one of the five energy projects announced today is a LNG liquification plant in the port of Salina Cruz...
We’ve heard AMLO make mention of this plant a few weeks ago. It will be used to export LNG to Asia.
Problem is, where will all of the dry gas come from?
Can you say.. Gasoducto Transoceánico?
Stink, The Istmus Master Plan is not an Energy Plan but an overview of the logistics platforms being incorporated... which is why I think it clearly includes our projects.
jrf, i've posted MANY times that the Isthmus Master Plan Presentation is a more sure bet as our projects all tie into the Isthmus. I've given reasons for each. All of which you yourself have access too on the internet.
1. Late August, new reports covering the Infrastructure Plan made it clear this was not the 147 projects we had anticipated late 2019 and all of 2020. That there were only a handful of energy projects.. the number I recall reading was only 2. Turns out, there were 5. Either way, it was telling that this wasn't our announcement.
2. Last Monday, CCE businessmen made it known that they would only be announcing the initial projects on 10/05. The initial projects would also only be short term projects. I posted the fact on this board and stated that our shortest project is the rehab lines in the isthmus and that will take 3 to 6 months for completion. Not exactly a short term project (plus its dealing with the Isthmus), hence, why I suspected this wasn't our announcement.
3. This Isthmus Master Plan Presentation... Rafael Marin said on 9/4 it would be presented "in about a month" and "possibly before the end of September". The only thing that would hold it up, according to him, were a sudden increase in COVID cases that would hinder the Singaporean company from carrying out various activities. As I posted on this board, both Mexico and Singapore have been experiencing a decrease in COVID cases, so we should be in the clear. Our Storage facility, our San Fernando, and our oil lines in the Isthmus (rehabed lines and new lines), ALL tie into the Isthmus!! That's why I thought (and you are free to think for yourself) they would all be presented TOGETHER during the Isthmus Master Plan Presentation. IF and only IF we were to have a project be presented this morning, IMO, it would have been the Storage Facility and/or San Fernando - I also posted this on the board.
Our day is coming. We need an update from MX on the Isthmus Presentation.
From what the CCE said last week, there is a built in mechanism to the plan that allows for additional projects to be announced as progress is made.