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thank you shadolane, montana:
I agree this is a travesty; rare for me to empathize so much with other investors, we are all self-accountable, but in this case my heart truly bleeds for all the believers (I was one of them); THE FUNDAMENTAL LESSON FOR ME IS THAT, WHEN INVESTING IN BIOS, JUST LIKE YOU NEVER TAKE STRONG RISKS PRIOR TO TRIALS, EVEN MORE SO, WHEN INVESTING IN BIOS, NEVER EVER TAKE LEGAL RISK such as AMRN; just think about it - if michael yee & his professional staff with all their resources, who attended the hearings in NV, etc... got it so wrong, what chance do we retails have? so damn capricious, just read hamoa & others prior to verdict; i am also very angry that foreign companies such as dr reddy are destroying our national patent system, making a travesty out of it ......
Good luck to all longs here - i truly hope you guys get the EU based buyout. meanwhile, i am focused on GBT - check that one out if you get chance. only thing between it eventually hitting triple digits sp is covid (yes, a big gauntlet);
ak777
checking back after approx 6 months; my good fortune (not skill, really) that I got a hunch to bail out of 90% of my position before the judge DU debacle in March. I still got hurt plenty from the covid-related market slide prior to the call but i count my blessings.
this company & management is an unmitigated disaster whom I earlier had some faith in. Thero has since proven himself to be an incompetent fool who should be joining Kodak's board next. If he knew he had such a weak hand, he should have settled many months earlier prior to March. Good God, sp from 26 to 3.50 in less than a year! Complete equity wipeout.... In the 6 months since, have I missed something? Can anyone point out why I should get back now around 3.60? How much is EU opp worth? Can EU alone take this to 8+ or 9
AK77
Lemmi - the heck with Amarin right now...
please take care of yourself; concentrate so you have no slip ups in terms of being under constant/continuous protection of PPE; God Bless & please msg back once you get back home after your hospital duty...
marjac - absolutely agree.
And despite myself being born in India, I am appalled that our legal system allows these foreign generics to steal the incredible risk & effort that a small company like AMRN took over several years to complete the reduce-it trial involving thousands of patients. The lack of advertising from AMRN will cost thousands of lives here in U.S.
I truly wish Peter Navarro/Trump would hear of this travesty wreaked by this judge. Either Du is a dimwit or else corrupt. Nothing else can explain.
Louie - very well stated
I have only been invested past few months and plan to remain so. Fortunately, due to sheer luck instead of skill really, I sold 85% of my AMRN position last week - and yet I still took a decent hit but I am of course very very thankful for my lucky stars. Reason for my goliath trimming last week was three-fold:
1. The broader market sell-off of a week back Monday & earlier created RELATIVE price dislocations - at one point last week SPCE was trading a buck lower than AMRN & I decided to jump to it via a big portion of the AMRN holdings. Why take a concentrated risk on a legal trial when the market crash provided ample opportunity to diversify? at one point within past few days, I had a 70% gain in SPCE in such a short time. spread out now into GBT NBIX NVCR;
2. Over past few weeks, a residual loss of confidence re. trial outcome after JT comments during the late Feb CC (he stating that "a loss will be a great setback....." - he just did not sound confident & rarin' to go and my own confidence re. the trial hence had a slow leak since then.
3. The broader market sell-off itself which would drag amrn sp down, trial win or not; I am still truly convinced we have not seen market bottom yet; covid is going to create rotating quarantines which will lengthen immensely the time required to return to normalcy, plus the economic fallout will take a long time to recover from, especially psychologically...
i will reallocate from other holdings to build up on amrn again..... I like the comments being mentioned here, plenty of hope...
your post makes no sense at all - not sure who you are speaking to & what you are trying to say.
can you please rewrite in proper english & make it understandable.
great advice lem - thx for your assessment!
lemmi - can i ask you something since you are a physician? reason is more broadly than my personal experience as i will point towards end;
so, here is a rundown of sequence of events between myself & wife starting right after new year's - I checked my phone messages log from that period to sort the details:
Jan 1 - wife starts coughing only coughing, no fever;
Jan 2 - wife more coughing;
Jan 3 - her coughing starts to abate but then I start coughing;
Jan 4- my coughing becomes more pronounced but no fever;
Jan 5 - wife coughing stops but I start having fever/chills/strong coughing;
Jan 5-7 - coughing plus hi fever at times 102.5 degrees;
Jan 8- wife's illness returns with a vengence - coughing plus fever; mine on the other hand abates and I recover;
Jan 11-12 - wife recovers;
could this potentially have been covid? I say this because researchers are claiming that covid starts with coughs, mild symptoms and then appears to have healed but then returns with a vengence (like my wife's); moreover, I remember saying to myself back then this is nothing like I have ever experienced, its something unique and not the flu - I get the flu once every 5 years or so;but this episode/fever really startled me, got a bit scared, etc.... given the strength of symptoms;
I know what most will say - covid19 only arrived in US two months later so it was flu; but I just dont buy that since nothing was being tested back then; I suspect this has been around since late december in us & that's what my & my wife might have had;
would welcome your professional assessment;
china now has less active cases than switzerland. UK will surpass China in active cases in 1 day; naysayers keep talking about a viral comeback in china but I am incredibly skeptical;
my optimism for forecasting that we will push past peak coronavirus within a few weeks is not based upon weather at all (albeit might help); simply based upon a global mobilization to fight off the disease.
to relate to another crisis, I had paid attention to post-911 period with quite a bit of interest in terms of societal changes in our conduct (btw, only reason I am still walking this earth is because I advertently forgot to register for a risk conference at the windows of the world taking place that morning; lost colleagues/clients); so post-911 was an interesting study for me in terms of how our society reacts/adjusts post-crisis;
our society adjusts and to a certain overshoots in response to a crisis, but often only gradually; and what you see initially post-crisis does not remain the norm; so, for example we may look today at the jackasses elbowing past each other in the beaches at san diego & miami, and say some of us will never learn; but gradually, it will become a societal norm to adopt precautionary measures in times of crisis, etc... stuff that will, even without formal legal mandate, will compel our citizens to adopt behavior (e.g. social distancing) meant to prevent recurrences of peak epidemic;
bottom line - have no fear, change is coming and each our citizens will adapt/mobilize; we have no choice - in order to save our economy & way of life... necessity is the mother of invention
interesting stat below:
About four out of five people known to have had the virus had only mild symptoms, and even among those older than 90 in Italy, 78 percent survived. Two-thirds of those who died in Italy had pre-existing medical conditions and were also elderly; Dr. David L. Katz, the former director of the Prevention Research Center at Yale University, notes that many might have died soon of other causes even if the coronavirus had not struck.
https://dnyuz.com/2020/03/20/the-best-case-outcome-for-the-coronavirus-and-the-worst/
oneragman - now there's a wonderful thought!
as we head towards end of day.... lets hope for some better news tomorrow - I would love to see ny/calif new case rates level off, plus italy/spain too.... will take a few weeks but we will get past peak coronavirus.... even if it reappears in fall, we will be much better prepared....
suit me fine.
BTW, mav, were you ever John McCain's running mate as VP? if so, how does Siberia look from out your window?
below is actual palin interiew with katy couric, your sources for news are no better than hers:
Couric: And when it comes to establishing your worldview, I was curious, what newspapers and magazines did you regularly read before you were tapped for this to stay informed and to understand the world?
Palin: I've read most of them, again with a great appreciation for the press, for the media.
Couric: What, specifically?
Palin: Um, all of them, any of them that have been in front of me all these years.
Couric: Can you name a few?
Palin: I have a vast variety of sources where we get our news, too. Alaska isn't a foreign country, where it's kind of suggested, "Wow, how could you keep in touch with what the rest of Washington, D.C., may be thinking when you live up there in Alaska?" Believe me, Alaska is like a microcosm of America.
tasty - exactly my point too.
the entire globe is now mobilized to fight this. just about every man, woman, and child. not necessarily a big fan of chinese communist party, but china as a whole has proven that it is not impossible to control/buy time & RETURN TO ECONOMIC NORMALCY. who knows, we might all die from an asteroid this year but it wont be from this coronavirus.
we might need to be careful going forward, permanent impacts/lifestyple adjustments), but you wont need an 18 month lockdown; this is pure scaremongering; an 18 month lockdown & consequent utter economic destruction for an illness that kills 2k or 4k or 6k or 8k max (hopefully not even that much!) out of 300MM population? and right now we only have approx 340 deaths (much less than 1k)? that ain't happening.... nor should it.....
more rubbish -
again, China is moving fast towards economic normalization; after 2 to 2.5 months; what the hell are we going to do wrong that it will require 18 months of lockdown? geez... the scaremongering; guess because this topic is such an easy target..
raf - agreed, BP's BO decisions will not be based so much on their current SP;
but BO decisions will involve their outlook on macro business conditions - if they expect a prolonged recession, they might for ex be more apt to retain their cash reserves to retain their existing employees and ride out the storm; just using this as an example; that their evolving assessment of future biz conditions will definitely impact their BO decisions and how much to pay.....
couldbe - great post, thx:
The Corona Virus also has been more devastating to those patients with
established heart disease and/or Type 2 Diabetes. Maybe that is a
silver lining as doctors and patients will take CVD much more seriously
than than they have in the past.
been saying the same thing for weeks; huge emphasis going forward to keep heart/diabetes illnesses in check; forgetting the paramount human toll, think about the cost savings if a covid case is only mild versus needing ventilators for these patients! I am sure BP foresees the same thing;
your point of a paucity of new drugs for the near/mid-term adds to our chances; even if near-term buyout is not on table, the speculative element will hopefully be priced into the SP soon enough...
"Even if PPS is down, does it really effect their buying ability? "
raf - yes and no. I believe a lower BO price increases the overall chances of a BO, all else being equal, if BP looks at it from a strategic perspective; on the other hand, all else is not equal right now - BP senior management is under pressure given the uncertainties; GILD for ex has a horde of cash but will they & similiar BP's practice risk management and be apt to retain the safety cushion instead of going on offensive? agreed, the substantial amrn revs will be immediately accretive;
the three metrics I look at, per region to assess peak potential damage:
1. rise/trend in the number of active cases
2. trend in number of new deaths
3. total number of deaths
a lot of scaremongering going on by so many; yes - this is a very serious illness, ain't no flu, I get that; one NJ family lost 4 members, including mom plus her 3 grown children - speaks to its deadliness; also, 3X more contagious than flu;
but having said all this, look at the reality of its actual damage per global region versus the prediction of millions of americans being infected/dying:
1. china went from 80k total cases to less than 6k active cases now; this points to the inevitability that we will have this under control here in short order (weeks/2 months max); does it make sense to you that china could control it, have only 3.2k total deaths and we are so dumb & incompetent that we will end up with a million casualties? this is utter nonsense.
2. yes, Italy got hammered very very hard but that was because their health system in the north got overwhelmed (shame on the rest of EU for not helping out); plus the population took it easy at the outset; its daily death tolls are staggering, yet total is still only 4800 (out of pop of 60MM plus);
our country is going to a full-court press now; the question is not if it will be eradicated (the current wave) but how long it will take. A potential next wave in the fall & winter will be much less muted plus hopefully a vaccine by then. this ain't no black death and yet we all need to remain very vigilant;
I hate it when people like NIH francis collins come out with CYA type numbers, scaring the already terrified public, implying inevitability of a million american casualties; utter gibberish when china only has 3.2K deaths;
They are testing losartan for covid? Both preventative and for mitigation been taking since last year only drug that effective in lowering blood pressure for me
Great attitude montana -
wishing you & all the best of health...
mrmainstreet - well said & I agree.
absolutely cannot believe these morons on the beach; if we have to instititute habeas corpus then so be it. ignoramuses still asleep wrto seriousness of this disease ala Italy in its early days - also, young folks can have serious consequences especially lung damage;
btw & unrelated to above, I can't stand bill ackman; an egomaniac; melting on national tv because of his fear for his own portfolio; I will never forget the 2 hour conference call he made back in 2015 when Valeant was melting away; after the conference call, the stock tanked a further 80% and people were scratching their heads as to what that was all about .....
Mnuchin telling GOP senators of a potential 20% unemployment rate if they don't act fast has spooked the markets IMHO.... the bottom will come and go, we won't know it till later, but it will come.
feel for you postes - my personal tom brady story....
speaks to his greatness - had posted a month or so back:
https://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=153741943
Heee haww!!
Irishman -
its all relative - hypothetically speaking, a 38 BO tomorrow is much much better than a 42-44 BO back in late Jan at the peak of the bull market; incredible opportunities to reinvest the proceeds that get freed up; right now, we are at 10.53 and our money is tied up;
your comment/sentiment (that I also concur with) that V is the best invention since sliced bread has not impressed the markets and it has not precluded us going from 26 to 8.58 within 3 months - remember that; we need to be realistic in context of present and future market conditions - I AM SURE JT HAS INCORPORATED THIS INTO HIS CALCULATIONS IN TERMS OF CHASING A BO PRICE. we investors should as well.
remember that the Japanese market after reaching a peak in 1989 took 3 decades to reclaim the same level (I believe); not saying same thing will happen to us necessarily, but these are market risks you cannot ignore & chase blindly;
meanwhile, please stay safe -
per my mention:
IMHO a BO offer will be less than earlier but precisely because of that the likelihood is higher.
lower price is fine by me if I can immediately reinvest the proceeds onto GBT at 40 or NBIX at 77! just sayin..... so in context of the current market conditions, broadly speaking a lesser offer is fine by me too....
james, couldbe, concapk:
I always like to go with the assumption that a BO is cherry on top, never assume it is impending for any of your investments; JT has similar attitude, he has explicitly said so in past - he said that great companies are bought instead of selling themselves - in other words, as a smaller bio don't try to focus on selling yourself but rather to create a productive, successful organization; then and only then will someone be attracted to you; unlike most of us, his prime focus is not to put his efforts into trying to sell the company but rather to create a successful US launch; other initiatives....
having mentioned that, I am sure he will take a reasonable offer, the company has made tremendous strides; going forward, IMHO a BO offer will be less than earlier but precisely because of that the likelihood is higher.
james - I am sure there has been a reset of expectations re. BO valuations for prospective bios in general. for us, in terms of possible BO this means:
1. BO price will be lower than earlier expectations of some many on this board (eg. biobillionaire with his mega-SP prediction).
1. Likelihood of BO becomes greater; I say this because a lower BO price is more appetizing and easier for a BP to justify from a BO valuation perspective - if instead of paying 44/share, you negotiate a 38/share price due to market conditions, it makes your consideration much more serious given the same revenue projections
the bright side of this selloff - with market cap at 3.7BB, no place to go but up, will spring back like a rubber band. can't wait for trial to get behind us..
so it should not impact our timeline. Great...
i am sorry, and even though i might possibly end up voting for him (who knows) -
nevertheless talk about poor timing - such a buf**oon to be making that call at a moment such as this in the markets! prime example why you can never discount Trump from being re-elected.....
V - marginal analysis re covid19.
going forward past this particular pandemic, covid19 resurfacing concerns will linger for many, many years - europeans & rest of world have become traumatized re covid19/virus pandemics;
and a proper analysis/lessons learned will point out that the healthcare systems in italy and elsewhere collapsed due to the enormous marginal impact of resource utilizations by cardio & diabetics - in other words the excess peak utilization that dr fauci is terrified about and that has already come to reality in italy is due PRIMARILY to this group (along with of course elderly in general);
therefore, a prime ongoing target for the healthcare community/orgs like icer,AHA,ADA,EHA/professionals to proactively manage this disease population so they would not burden the system again during a pntential future pandemic; BODES EXTREMELY WELL FOR V/AMRN;
all healthcare priorities/issues/politics will circle around covid19 pandemic for years and years to come;
thx for link - no surprises...
glad to see jeffries is still inline with my own sentiments. short term impact does not dent their very positive longer term outlook. q1-q2 impact naturally. in this market/biz environment, is there anyone complaining about hitting mid to hi teens SP, within context of a temporary bear market? that would bode extremely well once market stabilizes, & I am sure jeffries still has its 25-30 pps target (prior to a BO) that it has had for some time;
"Also, why wouldn’t V be be prescribed at a higher rate as the highest risk population will seek solutions to aid in their ability to survive this virus. "
I absolutely believe that - but only in the medium to longer term; but not at this moment when dr. visits have been cancelled/postponed where candidate patients would have been prescribed for first time. I believe cancelled dr visits is a much greater factor than the 800 reps not showing up for face-to-face dr office engagements. I expect a V-shaped spike in prescriptions later when these new prospects come on board; both dr visits and new demand for V will snap back like a rubber band once covid19 is put under control.
ggwpq - important point here.
my in law mentioned to me that most of the masks being worn by so many folks is absolutely useless - the virus will simply penetrate through - remember its a virus; he mentioned there are special masks avail from CDC that has the proper filtering; so if you are using a mask against coronavirus, please do your due diligence....
tasty - I have a couple of phD brother in laws in the area of immuno-oncology research, one who works in the NIH. my wife's nephew is also a phD researcher at Merck. spoke to all, and a couple of them staying at my house over weekend. had a wonderful conversation with them till 2am last night about the fundamentals of the incredibly complicated and wonderful immune system within us in general, etc..
their outlook: all 3 believe we will dodge this particular bullet but it will take some time - in the broader perspective of historical pandemics, covid19 is a pussycat (his word). but like fire or water, if you disrespect this disease it will get you with a vengence. I absolutely concur - italy is a shitshow because they disrepected the gravity of the situation. Spain is even less excusable - they knew what was going on in italy. DISRESPECT. in our case, the lack of testing was/is a shitshow, no doubt and must be investigated at a much later date. meanwhile, however, I believe our society & fed & local govts now get it - to each man & woman we are now mobilized - and that will be our saving grace.
AMRN might/might not get banged around for a while but eventually it will soar - yes some short term setbacks for 99% of us corporations affected one way or another & we are no different; we may end up with a milder type of recession perhaps but that is ok - MUCH OF IT HOPEFULLY HAS BEEN PRICED IN ALREADY; time will tell;
but if you are a longer term holder, the day to day assessments are of limited value. the short-term gamesmanship/trading that Kiwi's assessment might implicitly encourage amongst some is a very dangerous one especially given the upcoming trial outcome. Makes no sense.
I believe JL & so many others ksharing the same sentiment. I concur.
post dec 16 fda approval, its a 2 chapter story - till about earnings call feb 21 or so, it was strictly an AMRN specific drawdown from 24 to 18, slow leak due to lack of early settlement; from 18 down to now, around 12, its the coronavirus/market beta story;
means nothing, not yet; was at 10.50 Pre mkt this morning, then we all know about the 8.58 kickoff;
hopefully, for longer term, just as meaningless as AXSM SP of 13.80 back on Oct 1, down from that start of day SP around 20; check out its SP today, even after its recent 40% drawdown; not saying we will have a repeat here but just sayin'
if you don't want to torment yourself, just keep your eyes and the prize & repeat as I do: "4BB market cap for a company that will be cranking out min of 3-4BB peak revenues!" having said this, yes, I am tired of this coronavirus issue, as serious and real as it is;