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Thanks for bringing some senses to this thread HDG.
Sales reps are absolutely needed in brand drug sales in NA, EU and APAC. I worked for a MNC healthcare company which has large sales teams in all these continents for drugs, devices and other products (all separate teams).
FYI - large part of the drug salesperson's responsibility is education, i.e., educating healthcare professional about the drug, its studies and how it's benchmarked with other alternatives. If we still have CV physicians in the US mixing up V with average fish oil two years after the RIT trial completed, then it's very evident how important sales team is, and the 800 reps are not enough even for the US market.
If Amarin has only 5 employees in EU now, then it will need to hire rapidly after approval, or strike a partnership with a local pharma(s). GIA with 5 employees in EU is more laughable than credible. $5 sp is a good indicator that no one takes its EU GIA claim seriously at least for now.
You missed one - the BoD’s ignorance, complacency and incompetence.
Share price is one of the performance metrics of a CEO. Short term price suppression can be tolerated, but not long term. I believe he will be gone by H2 if the sp remains the same in H1.
The $10M is for 2020 and all generics. https://www.hikma.com/media/2854/november-2020-trading-update-vfinal.pdf
- Hikma's FY is the same as CY.
- The update was issued around the same time as gV launch. So the gV sales are just an estimation not even projection, but it could be a meaningful part of the overall $10M bump as there are only less than two months left in 2020.
- the projected 2021 sales could be $10M * 12/2 = $60M. I would expect close to $100M.
- In their update, they specifically mentioned gV, and working with supplier to increase capacity. Recall the Taiwanese supplier's own announcement earlier this year ...
Amarin is not out of woods yet. The next two quarters are critical to watch for the generic traction and market dynamic.
Extremely doubt if BO will come anytime soon if it hasn't come yet, because nothing has really materially changed recently. If there are new trial data for additional indications, then things can be very different.
how do you know other's position in this company? or just make statement based on assumptions out of habit.
I share the same reaction as M Yee - "Wow"! This management team is so confident on its retaining US market. They either know their market extremely well or are completely delusional.
Is JT aware of that Taiwanese API supplier and its expansion plan which may have already been completed as Taiwan is not hit as hard by COVID as the ROW. Is JT aware that China is known for its manufacturing prowess and its an arm's length away from Taiwan? Has JT heard of Foxconn? a Taiwanese manufacturer taking its knowledge and setting up a gigantic factory in China to produce almost all the smartphones/electronics for the world at a dirt cheap cost. Is JT aware that Tesla's gigafactory was built in China in less than 365 days from breaking the ground to ship the first car to customer?
So they're not focusing on any legal fight, aren't they? I gather no one will take responsibility of the valuation loss either.
Wow!
Ham - obviously the BoD has his back. Based on that infamous JT email, JT listens to "investors" (whoever they are). An invisible hand is finessing this company's fate. That hand is not JT's but that hand does hold JT in the CEO seat, at least for now.
Orb - It depends. Most boards of US corps have terms, i.e., 3 or 4 years, set by their bylaws. CEOs do have a strong say on whom they want the next candidate to fill in the vacant seat. In addition, I or we've seen some powerful CEOs (i.e., founder CEOs) restructure the board as they deem necessary. Mark Zuckerberg, Elon Musk and the late Steve Jobs are the cases in point. I could be wrong on this but I did hear that the board change can be one of the terms that a leading CEO candidate negotiates hard in order to take the job. After all the board that votes to have you as the next CEO won't necessarily support your strategy afterwards. So it's crucial for an incoming CEO to staff as many allies as possible on the board.
That said, all my experience/information of BoD are from US corps. Amarin is an Irish corp, so the corp governance may be different.
Ham - IMO, 1) the only legit reason for keeping the team as they're part of the asset;
2) not so sure as those tasks are team work so losing JT is a setback but not a show stopper;
3) Nah, the list of good candidates is long after all Vascepa is an important blockbuster. Whether they can do a better job than JT is an uncertainty but I think it's very likely. Honestly JT can do an okay job, but he shouldn't.
4) not sure. Baker Bros are a passive investor similar to us so I doubt they would want to meddle in the management and strategy. But Amarin has been around for over twenty years. Most of us are only familiar with its history of the last ten years. What happened prior to JZ/JT in Ireland is not well understood. So there may be some historical baggage making changing either management or BoD difficult.
I agree with you - BoD is just as guilt as JT. if there is a new CEO, the first thing he will do is to change the BoD.
I expect at least one of them will launch this year. But let's see.
8 - I'm with you. The way the management and BoD handle this situation is very strange and disheartening. Business is not as usual and should not be when you lost the biggest drug market in the world.
whose responsibility of not building a pipeline? and not settling? or not building a stronger IP portfolio, ......
There are millions reasons for this to happen which are seemingly not JT's problem. But at the end of the day, he is on the line for it because he is the CEO.
Losing 3/4 of its marcap is a market issue?
8 is right - CEO is ultimately responsible for the company, period. Even if the lawsuit was not JT's own decision, he signed it off and is on the line for the outcome. When he or anyone who agrees to be a CEO of a company, he takes all the responsibilities, including the consequences of the mistakes of his subordinates, his vendors, etc.. Pointing fingers to others only shows poor leadership and won't solve any problem. Whoever on this message board has been a CEO, or the owner of a business or a senior exec knows this. It's part of the package.
No one on the exec team is let go this year after the loses of both district and federal suits is a surprise to everyone. Unless it has a very compelling reason for keeping the entire team, such as M&A or EMA approval (could be), the BoD needs to restructure the leadership team to send a signal to the investors - it's not acceptable to lose 3/4 of valuation. If not, who will trust Amarin to take care of their money? The sp is not going to move much even if there are additional good trial data because investors just don't believe this management team is capable to protect its market.
This tweet from @Medical captures the sentiment of this board very well:
$AMRN Before we became shareholders we became customers of Amarin; Vascepa has improved our quality of life. As a reduce-it profile patient, if my prescription is switched to generic I and a thousand other Vascepa customers will happily testify in court on behalf of Amarin.
kiwi - that wasn't my point, but the data used to support my point that is selling the company sooner is better than later.
You seems to think I have a problem with the new stimulus package. I am actually neutral on that because I am always wondering whether curbing the cost, i.e., freeze rent/mortgage, is a better approach than printing more money. But US seems to prefer the latter all the time. If the economic output is not keeping up the pace of pumping new money into the system, then we will have the inflation problem. We will have to see after the economy is reopened, and how fast it can recover next year (the expectation is 3x).
kiwi - recession is not the same as deflation. yes, US is going into a recession (hopefully not a depression).
Because the risk is people will hoard money
kiwi - the confusion for you here is inflation vs. productivity. Your iPhone example is a good case of innovation increasing productivity. However inflation is a complete different concept. https://www.joc.com/productivity-and-inflation_19980603.html
Productivity growth is a real phenomenon. But as economist Milton Friedman, the Nobel laureate, has observed, inflation is always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon.
see your point. BUT Amarin is not immune to the macro-economic environment.
Soon US will release another > $1T stimulus pkg which is in addition to the previous > $1T one. So US probably prints 3x as much $s in 2020 as it did say in 2016. What does it mean? Inflation in the coming months and years. I doubt fed can curb it well with low rate. If one (in US) hasn't seen at least 10% price increase in their local grocery stores or restaurants, then one's living in a cave (maybe a good thing!). In my area, it's more like 15-20% increase this year.
That also means a BP or any company with e.g., $10B cash on its balance in 2020, will probably only get $8B or less actual buying power in 2021 for the same $10B if it decides to spend it in 2021. One of the reasons that the stock market is so buoyant now, so is M&A market, is because people and companies are moving cash to equity market in an attempt to mitigate the inflation.
If Amarin can't close a deal this year, it may well just GIA for the next two to three years as the M&A market will be dried up for a while. BTW, Amarin's $600M is not immune to inflation.
EMA approval is not something worth waiting for IF a outright buyer is interested and Amarin is open to BO. The first regulatory approval is the riskiest, but the rest are not as much. EMA approval would only affect any strategic partnership the company wants to form in EU, and it did as Amarin scrapped the partnership plan.
IP is something that could hold up the BO talks IF there were and are any buyers looking at Amarin before and after March 31. It's reasonable for potential buyers to scrutinize closely Amarin's IP portfolio as well as the EPA patent landscape to assess or reassess the risk for ReduceIt market OUS and US.
sp move is unlikely due to the GSK-Teva ruling or Citi report. HDG has a good analysis on the ruling relevance.
Something else is going on, ... IMO
The silence is very puzzling. To me, it means one of the two situations - 1) the management is just heads down on executing the GIA plan in US and EU, ignoring all "noises", good or bad; 2) they're in the process of deal-making, which requires minimal external communication.
Hope I am not alone in this line of thinking.
You're right - it's $0.15/share. So Bakers et al only got a slight discount of the then market price. https://investor.amarincorp.com/node/13351/html
Regardless whether Bakers have sold or not their majority of position in Q2, the fact that they converted all but 5M of their A shares to ADS suggests that they also don't want to take another 5 or 10 year ride with AMRN, i.e., GIA.
They're a hedge fund, so I gather that they're also hedging a BO like many of us are :)
isn't it 10 A shares for 1 ADS? So Bakers paid $5 per share in 2015 when the sp was sub $2. If they still hold, they're in the same mind as the rest of the long-term holders.
The diff is probably the amount converted by Bakers. HDG may get the conversion date wrong, i.e., after July instead of April.
This site claims the last 13f filing of Bakers, q2, 2020.
https://whalewisdom.com/filer/baker-bros-advisors-llc#tabholdings_tab_link
Unless someone can show a news piece of Bakers' latest Amarin A share conversion date, I would assume that Bakers still own 34M shares combined.
Re. Bakers shares, here is HDG's record, check post #301927 thread.
Seems to me that Bakers are still holding their shares, but most of which are now in ADS, so they can sell anytime. If they haven't dumped shares on 9/2, then they probably won't till EMA decision. Some on the board suggested that they have sold in the past to cover the base. If so, they're now just playing house money.
Amarin sold 352,150,790 Series A Convertible Preference Shares in March 2015 to
- Baker Brothers Life Sciences, L.P.: 267,921,860.00
- 667, L.P.: 21,395,600.00
- Stonepine Capital, LP: 37,500,000.00
- Broadfin Healthcare Master Fund: 25,333,330.00
(Please note: 667, L.P. is a BB Co., so BB got 289,317,460 ... Stonepine and Broadfin got 62,833,330).
During the three months ended June 30, 2015, 62,833,330 preferred shares were converted, resulting in the issuance of 6,283,333 ordinary shares. I think it was Stonepine Capital, LP and Broadfin Healthcare Master Fund. 289,317,460 Series A Convertible Preferred Stock was issued and outstanding as of June 30, 2015 ... exactly the same as bought by BB.
In July 2015, Amarin completed an additional sale of 38,867,180 Series A Preference Shares to Sofinnova Venture Partners VII, L.P. (Please note: Sofinova has a right of first refusal to purchase up to 9.94% of an offering by the Company of its ordinary shares or any securities exercisable into ordinary shares [based on October 12, 2009 Securities Purchase Agreement]). 328,184,640 Series A Convertible Preferred Stock was issued and outstanding as of September 30, 2015 ... exactly the same as bought by BB & Sofinova.
During the three months ended September 30, 2018, the Company issued 3,886,718 ADSs upon consolidation and redesignation of 38,867,180 Series A Preference Shares. ... exactly the same as bought by Sofinova. 289,317,460 Series A Convertible Preferred Stock was issued and outstanding as of September 30, 2018 ... exactly the same as bought by BB.
HOWEVER
I admit I was wrong when I said / thought that Baker Brothers "sold 23,771,368 in Q2".
I thought BB owned 34,496,685 ADSs (each representing one Ordinary Share) as of March 31, TOP OF the Series A Preference Shares ... but they did not.
The 34,496,685 includes:
- 5.564.939 ADSs
AND
- 28,931,746 ADS that may be acquired upon the conversion of the Series A Preference Shares.
As 237,713,680 preferred shares were converted, resulting in the issuance of 23,771,368 ordinary shares in April 2020, as of June 30, 2020, BB owned 34,496,685 as:
- 29,336,307 ADSs and
- 5,160,378 ADS that may be acquired upon the conversion of the Series A Preference Shares.
Best,
G
HDG - Thank you for the clarification! I thought all BB's A shares were converted before March. That's why I was confused. Now I understand all the numbers.
So it sounds that BB hasn't sold their shares in discussion, but the conversion can be considered an intent to sell. To me, it also indicates that they don't like GIA plan or whatever is going on inside Amarin either, because if the company's goal is for sale, then it doesn't make sense for BB to convert A shares to ADS. Or it could be that BB see the M&A talks stalled or not imminent, so they see risk of waiting and want to have an option to get out as they wish.
Basically, if the largest institutional holder doesn't seem to have much confidence in the company's performance, it's just baffling to see the company doesn't make drastic changes.
HDG - Amazing tracking! Thank you for the clarification.
I may be slow at following the numbers here. So it sounds that by 9/30/2018, BB owned 289,317,460 Series A Convertible Pref Stocks. By 3/31/2020, BB owned 34,496,685 ADS which you suggest is the sum of 5,564,939 ADS and 28,931,746 ADS that were possibly converted from Series A convertible pref stocks which were the entirety of their A share pool. Is that right?
Basically I am able to follow your explanation till March, 2020. But I am confused with the numbers for June, 2020.
As 237,713,680 preferred shares were converted, resulting in the issuance of 23,771,368 ordinary shares in April 2020, as of June 30, 2020, BB owned 34,496,685 as:
- 29,336,307 ADSs and
- 5,160,378 ADS that may be acquired upon the conversion of the Series A Preference Shares.
kiwi - what confuses me is that
- how did HDG/people know BB own Series A pref. shares? I thought BB only own ordinary shares.
- why did HDG claim the sales of those Series A pref. shares were by BB? The company didn't specify it (rightfully)
BB is not a venture fund, so how did they get Series A pref. shares? On the contrary, Sofinnova is a venture fund and investor in Amarin, which can/should own such shares.
I remember reading BB sold 7M shares earlier this year probably to cover their base, hence going down to 34M from 51M.
Has anyone investigated on how many AMRN shares Baker Bros' still own?
HDG made some bold claims last week re them divesting which don't seem aligned with what is reported on some websites.
HK, exactly!
Notice that they wrote “ Because there is the belief that EPA is better for CVD prevention, ...”
It’s not a belief. It’s an evidence or evidences if you count both JELIS and ReduceIt. I can’t believe Mayo published this stuff. SMH
Thanks for sharing. A famous saying in data sciences - garbage in, garbage out. The quality of the data, i.e., "cleanness" and structure, is paramount to the results.
The value of meta-data analysis of clinical trials is questionable. Don't think I am alone in this comment. This is because biological system is extremely complex. If a trial doesn't set strict recruitment criteria and specific measurements, its results will be all over the place, confusing the issue rather than solving it. That's why clinical trial is highly managed, and the trial design is very well thought out by both the trial runner and the recipients such as FDA. Combining different trial data for analysis hoping to get some truth is like throwing all the food in your fridge to a pot hoping to get a Michele star meal. It's a brain-dead approach.
Since I was in academia for a little while, I feel comfortable to make this statement - not every PhD/professor/MD/physician is bright. In fact, there are quite a lot mediocre researchers in academia. They can't think of any ingenious idea but are under the pressure of publishing something, so they just concoct silly approaches like this to get a publication out to beef up resume, add to grant proposal, get speaking gig, etc...
Don't take me wrong, meta-data analysis can be quite valuable in some fields, such as engineering, when the study subject is not so complex.
Got your question. If you're a small merchant selling goods with thin margin say 15%. If you have to give away 2.9% to Visa/MC, that's 20% of your profit. If you sell a pack of gum for $2, your customer wants to put it on his card. You're giving $0.36 to Visa/MC out of probably $0.5 profit out of that gum. Yike! This is why small shops have a minimum of $10 or $20 for taking cards.
Not sure if I understand your question. Visa and MC have the same fee for whoever uses their network - a base fee (30 cents) and a % fee which is 2.9%. So if you donate $100, then $3.2 will be taken out and sent to Vias/MC. For $10,000 from 80 donors (??), the fee will be about $320.
GoFundMe doesn’t take a cut of what we donated. The fee goes to the card processing company such as Stripe or PayPal which passes the majority of the fee to Visa and MasterCard. If you want to complain, join the hundreds of millions small merchants around the world who hate Visa, MasterCard stealing their hard earned money. Ever wondering why your dry cleaners or corner convenient stores prefer to take your cash than cards.
By the way I warned BB on this.
sts - what kycc shared is legit. CCSB is a Taiwanese company. In fact a very established API contract manufacturer making a dozen or so drugs for BPs around the world. Hence it has to register and get all sorts of licenses and permits from the regulators including FDA. I'm not sure why people call it SinoChem, probably its English name? just like Foxconn is the English name of Hon Hai Precision Industry.
http://www.ccsb.com.tw/
kycc never reveals what he does. He could be in the API business and may even have connections in CCSB.
cc - valid points, except that I don't think or expect Amarin to make this process public including its engagement of ibanker unless it'll close its door soon which is not the case here. The company will go through the normal M&A process which is behind the door, discreet. It will only be made public when the agreement is reached. However in Amarin's current state, I am sure the rumor mill is running sooner than later because the market votes NO on GIA.
M&A process can take a while (let's really hope it didn't just start today!). In the meantime, JT still has a company to run. Going with momentum is reasonable. It can even build a corporate structure in EU as all of these can be absorbed or cut easily by the buyer. But reimbursement agreements etc are not something that a buyer can change or get out of easily. Hence Amarin needs to be carefully on this.
Are you sure the new exec hire is for price negotiation? Do you think Amarin is in a better position to get a good price than a known BP in the EU countries?
I truly pray he is not working on price negotiation. If he is, then he should stop if the company is put itself up for sale. No buyer wants the target company to negotiate a product price for them when it's close to a buyout (unless the contract was done in the past) because the buyer could be stuck with a price they don't like for years.
cbb, re EU launch, yes each country is a negotiation. But most big established players will pick several target countries and get the negotiations rolling at the same time in parallel. Amarin has no current presence in EU and a limited amount of cash and little knowledge of the market too. Hence it has to tread water one country by one country. Not good.
Plenty of potential buyers out there. The company needs to actively engage in conversations with those buyers. Bottom line is Amarin can't go it alone anymore. Even a broad partnership agreement with one big company will do better than JT's most solid GIA plan.
CBB - is Raf's source same as yours? just joking. can't help :)
If what Raf heard is true, that's a bit relief for us. Correct me if this is wrong - JT did comment on one of his calls that they talked with others about partnership in EU and there are "strong" interests. OK, here are your potential buyers.
Regarding timing, EMA approval is anticipated sometime next year. It will take at least one year for even a BP to prepare for a "big" launch. Let's not forget the macro-economic environment which will be very tumultuous in the next 6 to 12 months in both US and EU. So Amarin should be very motivated to sell, not just open to sell. I hope he won't miss this timing. Just imagine the situation of flat US sales, a lukewarm EU launch and only $300M or less in the bank at the end of 2021. He'd better act soon.
Jasbg- yes, that's one of the pieces I was referring to. I also heard from folks in O3 business about this, but not sure if their comments were from the same source.
The timing June 2018, is interesting here. That's ten months after the ReduceIt interim readout by the independent party which recommended continuation of the study (August 2017). The question is why 2018? JT had all the years before 2018 to get the license, but he waited for so long. My interpretation of this timing is 1) Amarin itself wasn't even sure ReduceIt would turn out well. JT is a very calculated person and good at numbers. Hence he didn't want to strike a deal with Mochida which could cost him $$ that he didn't want to spare then; 2) the interim results were likely very encouraging. Yes Amarin was supposedly blinded for it, but I am sure the management had a much better sense by just talking with the reviewing party. Hence Amarin went ahead to strike the deal with Mochida to secure its IP rights for ReduceIt. All in all, ReduceIt patents are a very different case from Marine ones. There are definitely more and stronger arguments on whether a POSA can tell.
Btw, I do find HDG's comments on Baker Bro's shares are puzzling. There seems a big discrepancy between what he claimed and what was reported on various websites re the # of shares Baker Bro's own.