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Bingo. We finally found something that we can agree on. I have to admit though that today's green tint (up on $ 0.005/share) is a little too light for me. Ha.
Piper -
The share price went up $ 0.005 today. By your own definition (see your most recent post), that makes the JP Morgan Healthcare Conference a success for PRED. Do you feel better now?
Sometimes you proofread things a thousand times a you overlook the simplest things. Obviously, it was just an honest mistake that no one caught. It really does not affect anything in a major way in terms of valuation. I guess you could argue that it should be a little embarrassing from a professionalism point of view.
Spot on Stockboy. The conference is not even over and certain people have already concluded in their minds that the event was a total failure as it relates to PRED. As to someone else’s comment about the presentation including a stock price of $ 1.05 when the current share price is $ 0.84, they need to understand that a presentation as large and as complex as the one they prepared for the conference can take a relatively significant amount of time to prepare. ORED simply used the stock price on December 31, 2019 because it was known and represented the stock price on a clear cut day (the last day of 2019). They could have just as easily put the $ 1.22 closing price that occurred several days later, but it would have required them to go back and amend certain slides in the investor presentation package. The only place in the presentation that the stock price really meant anything is on the slide wherein they computed the Enterprise Value. As I said in a previous post, they unfortunately computed PRED’s Enterprise Value at $ 13 million below the correct number because the subtracted the $ 6.5 million total debt as opposed to adding it to the market cap number before subtracting out cash.
For as long as it takes for NASDAQ to either accept or reject an application to list on their exchange.
“Charts” are just one of many tools that investors use to try and project the future direction of a stock’s price based on prior trends. While charts certainly have there place in an investor's tool kit, they are not the ONLY item in the tool kit. Certain tools are designed to allow you to perform certain tasks effectively and efficiently. However, some tools in you tool box are not designed or intended to perform certain functions. Charts cannot predict when research will lead to a new discovery, when new products will be released to the public, when a company will secure funding or run out of cash, etc. Wise investors know which tool(s) are needed to accomplish each job. That knowledge is gained through education and experience.
You are basing your entire argument on “what you have SEEN from Brad or PRED during the past few months”.
How about all of the things that Brad and PRED have DONE during the past few months, but have elected not to make public thus far? Just because Brad (or someone from PRED) does not pick up the phone everyday and tell you what they have done, or the progress that they have made in negotiating certain deals, advancing their research, developing new products, etc., does not mean that they are not doing anything.
Come on Piper. Be a little more mature in your thoughts. Look, I don’t like the current low share price anymore than you, or anyone else, does. But I have been around the biotech industry long enough to know that one single positive release can cause the price of a stock to absolutely skyrocket at a rate that is beyond your wildest imagination. Give it time. You have to plant a seed before you can harvest a crop.
Piper wrote - “Brad IS doing nothing”.
Please explain to the board the basis of your statement. There is a HUGE difference between the statement that you made and a statement such as “Brad APPEARS to be doing nothing”.
Just one of many statements that have been made out of ignorance.
Get used to it. He changes his mind every day. We still have time for him to change it a couple of more times today.
Here we go again with manic depression syndrome.
Good evening Bigboy,
Please clarify your last statement as I am not sure that I understand the message that you were trying to make or imply. Thanks in advance.
It would be impressive if just 20% of that number could be achieved. That is just one revenue stream.
Good evening St. George,
I interpreted the financial amounts presented as both "total market potential" and "PRED's estimated share of that total market potential". I think that is exemplified by them showing a 20% and 10% market penetration rate in the U.S. and China, respectively, for the EndoRisk slide. We can only hope and pray that the market penetration rate proves to be at least 5% in both markets (not to mention the rest of the entire world). If such were to eventually prove to be true, you might have a "tiger by the tail" with your PRED shares.
Good evening Stockboy,
As you can imagine, each firm has its own set of rules, policies and procedures that dictate what the firm can, and cannot, do. As a general rule, I think that it is safe to say that very few brokerage houses, if any, will allow their brokers to recommend to their clients that they purchase shares of PRED. Unfortunately, these same brokerage houses will be more than happy to allow you to purchase PRED shares in your brokerage account as long as you sign a waiver wherein you acknowledge that you are purchasing the PRED shares based on your own decision and that the firm did not recommended that you purchase the shares. Also, brokerage houses will charge you a commission to purchase PRED shares because their new "no commission" policy relates only to stocks that are listed on the NASDAQ, the NYSE or the NYSE/AMEX Exchanges. Moreover, due to the new "no OTC company" and "no stock under $5.00 policy", some brokerage houses will not even allow you to purchase OTC traded stocks (no matter what the price is) and some will not allow you to purchase a stock for your account that is under $ 5.00 per share - even if the company is traded on one of the major exchanges (e.g. Bank of America/Merrill Lynch).
The policies of some hedge funds, high new worth individuals and institutional investors allow shares of PRED to be purchased despite the fact that they are traded on the OTC. Unfortunately, I would venture to say that the list is very short.
As a general statement, because PRED is traded on the OTC (and especially as a Pink Sheet company), I do not believe that there is any brokerage house in the United States that will allow any shares of PRED to be transferred into a brokerage account within their firm directly from the transfer agent (even if you agree to provide them with a legal opinion).
Overall, as we all know, PRED shareholders are pretty much screwed as long as PRED continues to trade on the OTC Exchange - and especially the Pink Sheets. I wish that the company would consider buying a company that is already listed on the NASDAQ, the NYSE or the NYSE/AMEX Exchange for a very low price (you could probably get one for about $3 - $5 million) and then doing a reverse merger in which PRED is the surviving company (and then changing the name of the company).
The guys at PRED (and their advisors) are a whole lot smarter than I am about such matters and I am confident that they have some strategy that will eventually get us off of the Pink Sheets and the OTC Exchange. (At least that is my prayer - Ha).
Good afternoon Snow,
I have no idea whatsoever as to what the actual penetration rate into the U. S. Market might ultimately prove to be. I can only assume that the PRED management believes that a 20% penetration rate is feasible because that is the number that they chose to use. That said, what if the actual penetration rate only priced to be 5%? That significantly lower level of penetration would still result in annual sales of approximately $ 1 billion! At a projected EBITDA margin rate of 35%, that would still be $ 350 million of positive cash flow to PRED on an annual basis. Based on 283 million current outstanding shares, that would be equivalent to an EBITDA rate of approximately $ 1.24 per share. If the market would give PRED an EBITDA multiple of 25 (that is probably low for a start-up company that has a high growth potential), the share price would approximate $ 20.66. Remember, that is based on a market penetration rate of only 5% and only covers ONE of PRED’s future revenue streams. Just imagine the potential of your investment if the market penetration rate is anywhere near the 20% that is reflected in their investor presentation!
Surf -
The $4.2 billion in revenue that you referenced is for the United States market only (and at a penetration rate of 20%). If you look below the numbers given for the U.S. market, you will see that they have projected revenue for EndoRisk in China at almost $ 9 billion (based on only a 10% market penetration rate). The numbers given and the potential for investment gain are absolutely frightening
No I cannot because I am not one of the attendees. But I have attended more conferences, made more formal presentations, and participated in more one-on-one meetings than I care to remember. I assure you that the printed material produced today is a clear representation as to what they showed during the one-on-one meetings. Hope this helps my friend.
Piper -
That’s because you were not invited to the conference by JP Morgan Chase. If you know anything about these type of conferences, you will know that there are presentations made by companies and there is a venue in which one-on-one meetings are conducted with existing shareholders, potential shareholders, existing lenders, potential lenders, existing customers potential customers, etc. The one-on-one meetings gives the company an opportunity to give a general overview of the company or can be catered to address the specific questions of each participant. I assume you, the information package that was posted on the Ihub site this morning is the exact information that PRED has bound in a booklet to give/show anyone that attends one of the one-on-one meetings during the next four days.
Yes and yes.
Good afternoon stockmsg-
The numbers presented for EndoRisk are for the United States and China only and not the entire world market.
Piper,
Although technically, the information disclosed by PRED today at the JP Morgan Chase Healthcare Conference was not an official press release by the company, it was tremendously powerful and encouraging information to those that are capable of comprehending it. I am not intending to insult you my friend, but the information presented today is BY FAR the best that the company has released in over a year in my opinion. If you can’t glean from the presentation the potential massive revenue stream, positive cash flow and profit potential that could be generated by the company in the near future then I don’t believe that you will ever be able to understand the true potential of your PRED investment.
Or it could be a simple inconsistency in presentation between that slide and other slides wherein the word “annual” was simply left out by mistake and not caught when proofread. Don’t overthink it.
Although it does not appear to be an official press release, you have to admit that this is the first information (not to mention the best information) that the company has produced that shows some type of quantifiable data.
Whenever, you, I and a lot of others offer to buy more shares at prices that are higher than the current level.
Stiggie -
Quarterly reports of publicly traded companies (including those listed on NASDAQ, NYSE and NYSE/AMEX), do NOT have their quarterly financial statements (that are included in the 10-QStacks) audited. The annual financial statements (the ones that are included in the 10-Ks) are the only ones that are audited.
Quarterly earnings are reviewed, not audited. Deloitte will perform the review on the quarterly statements so you can feel somewhat comfortable that there will be some good independent oversight of the financial statement preparation, presentation and disclosure processes.
Thank you for posting the new investor presentation. Finally, management has provided existing and potential shareholders some quantifiable numbers that we can at least ponder. As you can see, the numbers (i.e. opportunities) appear to be tremendous - especially in the Chinese market where the incidence rate of endometriosis and fertility problems appear to be significantly higher per capital than in most other countries.
While I am extremely thankful that the company has finally issued some potential revenue streams for the various products and services that they offer, I wish that they would have included an additional line that provided the projected gross profit margin percentage for each projected revenue stream.
One thing that I noted in reviewing the investor presentation is in the financial statement presentation section, they miscalculated the “enterprise value” of the company. The enterprise value should have been reported at $13 million higher than their slide reflects because when you compute the enterprise value of a company, you ADD the amount of total debt, you do not subtract it as they have done.
Enterprise Value =
Total Number of Shares Outstanding (fully diluted) x Market Price Per Share + Total Debt - Cash
Obviously, everyone has a theory about everything in life. Specific to this board, there are a multitude of theories given as to what has prevented PRED from getting uplisted to the NASDAQ Exchange, what caused PRED to be delisted from the OTCQX, etc. I can only surmise that you, like so many others, have formulated a theory as to the above subjects. Would you care to give us your thoughts?
Yeah, great idea Piper. Why don’t you start the process off and make the first prediction. I hope you predict something like “The share price of PRED will be $80.00 by the close of trading today”.
How do you know that the company is not doing anything to negate the negative effects of the Hindenburg Report? Are you basing your comment on the fact that the company has not called you personally and told you what actions they have taken? Or are you basing your comment on the fact that the company has not released any press releases that specifically report what specific actions they have taken to try and negate the negative effects of the Hindenburg Report?
Try ‘tis. How about the company is doing things behind the scene that you, I, nor anyone else knows about and the company does not want to prematurely tip their hand to any of the co-conspirators which might be associated with the Hindenburg Group (e.g. the guys at the Hindenburg Group, the crooked market makers, the co-conspiring brokerage firms and the short sellers that profited from the illegal scheme).
Give the process a chance to run its course. I share your same frustrations from time to time, but I always come back to the point where I remind myself that I did a sufficient amount of diligence on the company to justify an investment in the stock on a long-term basis.
Thanks for giving us s simple explanation in plain English. I think I speak for everyone on this message board when I say we are now all better investors. Ha.
You hit the nail on the head my friend. No matter what you call it or how you compute it, the end result is that going from $ 6.91 to $ 1.08 (today's closing price), really sucks.
You are 100% correct and that cannot be disputed.
Howabout if he had said this:
“The stock at $6.91, was almost 6.4 times higher than its current price of $1.08.”
Would that work?
Stiggie - The number of shares that are in DTC is immaterial. What is material is how many of the shares in DTC are in the hands of weak versus strong hands. There are a lot of shares in DTC that are still at the transfer agent in book entry form and not at brokerage houses. I am not aware of one single brokerage house that will allow PRED shares to be transferred into their firm from the transfer agent (as a result of their “no Pink Sheet, no low priced stocks). As a result, although their may be more shares going into DTC, that does not mean that those additional shares can be sold at this time. Don’t waste your time worrying about the number of shares that are in DTC. If “tens of millions of shares” shares had been taken out of DTC as per one of Johnnie Mackey’s previous posts, it really would have zero effect on the stock because the removed shares could be put back in DTC in just one day.
Actually, if the large investor(s) that have been buying most of the shares over the past few months were to remove the purchased shares from DTC, they might actually be hurting their own cause because if they wanted to sell the shares, they would have to put them back into DTC and then transfer them to a brokerage firm that will then sell them. As I said above, while the shares can easily be put back in DTC if previously removed, they would then be unable to transfer those shares to a brokerage house to sell them. Hence, it would actually hurt their position to remove the shares out of DTC.
Good morning greencandle,
As a former member of the Board of Directors, the general rule is that he cannot sell any of his shares until the 91st day after the date of his resignation.
Hey RL - in response to your comment on Jay Moyes wanting OUT of PRED because he disagreed with the direction the company was headed, please consider the following:
How about Sorrentino wanted stem cells OUT of PRED because of the potential massive legal liability associated with the administration of stem cells to patients. How about Sorrentino, an ex-Executive Vice-President of the Women’s Health Division at Pfizer wanted PRED to shift its long-term focus towards becoming a bio/pharma/pharma business and not purely a life sciences business? As for me and my money, I siding with Sorrentino, Ward, Dey, Taylor and Robinson. Please short some more stock.
Tomorrow should prove to be interesting for the market in general. With the attack a few moments ago by Iran on several U.S. military bases (a dumb move on Iran’s part), you can bet your last PRED share that President Trump is going to answer Iran’s actions immediately and in a convincing matter. If any U.S. citizens or military personnel were killed as a result of the middle attacks by Iran, it will be really bad news for Iran’s military members, their oil refineries and the “spiritual” leaders.
God Bless the U.S.A.
I am curious as to how you know that news will be released this week.
I’m waiting for it to go higher also RL. I want to see you and your “cohorts” cut each other’s throats to get shares to cover your short position. In fairness, given the EXTREMELY small player that you are (maximum of 10,000 shares short at any one time per your own admission), it shouldn’t be too hard to cover. Cover before you run lose the money you had been saving to buy those new battery cables.
Short PRED? Really ? I’ve been called many things, but “stupid” is not one of them.
Good evening Deez -
Getting money out of China today is extremely difficult and time consuming. During the past 4-5 years, there has been a tremendous amount of money leaving China and being put to use or invested in other countries. The flight of capital out of the country put a serious strain on the Chinese economy. In an attempt to curb the outflow of money, the Chinese government has implemented strict monetary policies. For example, they have devalued their currency significantly. Thus, if PRED were to take out a loan with CITIC Bank (which is based in China, the loan would be funded in “juan, the official Chinese currency (sometimes referred to as “renminbi”). Then, to get the loan proceeds out of China, and back to the U.S. so that it could be used to help fund PRED’s operating expenses, an application would have to be filed with the Chinese Minister of Currency’s offices seeking approval to convert the juan into U. S. dollars. If the application is approved, the juan would then be converted into U.S. dollars. However, as a result of China devaluing their currency dramatically, the amount of post-converted dollars that PRED would actually get would be significantly less than they probably would expect. The currency exchange loss essentially can be construed as a bump in the effective interest rate on the loan.
As an additional means of trying to slow down the speed in which capital is leaving China, the Chinese government has put restrictions on the amount of money that you can send out of the country each month. For example, if you want to transfer $ 250 million out of China, each month you would have to file an application with the Minister of Currency’s Office. The government might approve the transfer of $ 10 million (U.S.$) the first month, leaving you with the need to transfer an additional $ 240 million in future months. The next month, you have to file another application, which for example’s sake, may result in you getting approval to transfer out $ 15 million more in the second month. Some months, the Chinese government might not approve you to transfer any money out of China. By now, I think you are getting the picture as to how costly and inefficient it is to try and get a significant amount of money out of China and how long the process might take.
As a result, it seems to me that it would be illogical for PRED to borrow a lot of money from a Chinese lender and then have to endure the struggles, inefficiencies and frustrations associated with trying to get the money out of China. As such, if PRED does borrow a lot of money from CITIC (or any other Chinese lender), I would think that they would have a plan in place to set up a facility in China to make the various kits, drugs, etc. with local Chinese labor and set up a distribution network throughout China using a Chinese sales force.
While I may certainly be wrong, I am speaking from experience based on the six transactions that I have closed for my clients in the past few years with a Chinese lender.