Monday, January 13, 2020 5:25:38 PM
I have no idea whatsoever as to what the actual penetration rate into the U. S. Market might ultimately prove to be. I can only assume that the PRED management believes that a 20% penetration rate is feasible because that is the number that they chose to use. That said, what if the actual penetration rate only priced to be 5%? That significantly lower level of penetration would still result in annual sales of approximately $ 1 billion! At a projected EBITDA margin rate of 35%, that would still be $ 350 million of positive cash flow to PRED on an annual basis. Based on 283 million current outstanding shares, that would be equivalent to an EBITDA rate of approximately $ 1.24 per share. If the market would give PRED an EBITDA multiple of 25 (that is probably low for a start-up company that has a high growth potential), the share price would approximate $ 20.66. Remember, that is based on a market penetration rate of only 5% and only covers ONE of PRED’s future revenue streams. Just imagine the potential of your investment if the market penetration rate is anywhere near the 20% that is reflected in their investor presentation!
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