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I-man, you really think Oasis is in serious trouble, might not make it out of this crisis? Negative EPS doesn't help and will look even worse if they do a reverse split.
Whats your take on Centennial Resource Dev (CDEV) another shale play based in Denver? Am following that too. Price declined for 2 months straight until this week when it recovered a bit. Still hesitant to own the shale companies even though for some of them financials look strong and they'll likely survive. CDEV seems quite cheap at sub-$1 but who knows what lurks in 4Q, what with the vaccine and stimulus 2.0 a total mess.
Your thoughts please?
Agree there's still lots of risks and headwinds for all oil stocks. Naked shorting doesn't help these companies either, and we haven't yet seen any discussion or offering of federal help to the distressed oil sector. Isn't it funny how they'll really hang out to dry this paramount and globally significant industry??
Gosh, in the US alone, we have 700-800 Mil gasoline or diesel powered cars, trucks, buses not to mention industrial machinery, lawn mowers, etc. Double that # to 1.5 Bil vehicles in the rest of the world. Plus there's aviation, shipping, mining, etc. all sorts of industries need oil let alone its derivative products. Where will the feedstocks come from if they let oil&gas shrink and wither away? What kind of foolhardy thinking is that??
Haven't checked out PER but will take a look. If OAS does an R/S or a secondary offering (very little chance) they're finished. Lets see how Q3 looks like in a few weeks.
There's an ongoing concerted attempt by Saudis, OPEC and Russians to wipe out US shale industry, starting way back in 2014. For Russia, its payback for the embargoes enacted by Godumba Nodrama after Ukraine incursion. For OPEC, its basically trying to dominate world oil like they did in the 70s -- except now there's so much oil and so many producers in several countries that they have to resort to slashing prices, opposite of what they did in 1973 and 1979. The whole mid-east is a sinister bunch, a complete wasteland and if it wasn't for their oil, would be in the dark ages even now, ignored by most of the world.
Anyhow, oil is not going up for at least 6-9 months due to supply imbalance. Unless airports, countries open up and planes start flying, its going to be a long haul. By that time, most US shale players will have bitten the dust. Its also problematic for KSA because the political and social turmoil will be even more costly for their puppet regimes. But they're a worthless banana tinpot so who cares if house of Saud is toppled.
What makes you think so? Oil and oil stocks tanking this morning despite record draws per the API and EIA reports. Its a long game being played by Saudi, Russia and China against the US all with the official blessing of idiot-in-charge. What can we do, we elected him so have to suffer the consequences. He was never a big supporter of this industry anyway but at least he's not as bad as the other dodos pushing for complete oil wipeout. Lets see how things shape up after November.
Probably the only, and winning strategy for these oil stocks right now. Get in and out quickly with 5-10-20 cent roundtrips i.e. "Bandit trading"
Some guy over at Stocktwits was bragging that he made 200 RTs in a stock with only 1 loss .... ! Checked the 3-year chart and it had been in a steady decline, just like other oil stocks, since 2018. No way he could make that many profitable trades (did I say he was bragging?!) without a tumble. People say all sorts of things
Be careful with OAS, chances of bankruptcy very high remainder of 2020 and going into 2021. Extreme debt, negative EPS, lower production and poor cash flows for years.
Oil stocks only good for trading not investing, in this covid induced paranoid environment. GL.
Umm, which stock ticker are you looking at? They announced they've received their AMT refund early, some $170 M dollars, that they plan to apply to debt reduction.
Not seeing any huge movement this morning. Other than AMT, what has changed? Most oil stocks are still firmly in control of shorts i.e. Godman Suchs and its henchmen. They won't release oil stocks until much later in 2021 and/or if a major "conflict" event (false flag incident leading to ...) breaks out somewhere in the world. Whole industry is dead for now, nothing will happen unless planes, ships, autos come back in full force.
Watch for a resounding, convincing and possibly even landslide Trump victory in Nov. The country will lay the blame for delaying Stimulus 2 checks, expedited trials/vaccines, and all the BLM/antifa malaise of trashing entire cities and govt. property SQUARELY on the shoulders of these idiot socialist demagogues.
They're free to go trash other banana republics like HOnduras, Paraguay, Belarus, or whatever but not here. People are sick and tired of everything thats going on.
Trump today announced an FDA Emergency Use Authorization for treating Covid patients with convalescent plasma -- blood donated by those that recovered from Covid. Data from MIT, Harvard, Mayo Clinic, all verified by FDA and BARDA suggests that recovery rate is 35% if patients get this treatment early in the disease. Its indeed a BIG DEAL, as FDA boss Hahn said. Apparently in-fighting and deep state political operatives at FDA were trying to prevent the use of this treatment, and trying to block the EUA.
As expected, commie “experts” at CNN and MSNBC instantly jumped on it trashing the EUA, saying its not a verified treatment, where’s the data, etc. etc. All these doctors including that punk Snajay Gupta over at CNN are from India ... who let them into the country and why?? How come all of a sudden we've got 1000s Indian doctors working as advisors and experts to our govt.? Most of them are in cahoots with the Gates-Soros cabal you can bet. And they don't have the best interests of American citizens at heart.
Tell you what, India and China are out to bring down the US at all costs. Thats their ultimate agenda, they'll do anything and everything to succeed so they can finally take over the US. We've got to fight back and reclaim our country from these socialist hordes that have invaded us over the last 20 years.
No one can offer proof that any company will go bankrupt but that's been in the news for most of these over-leveraged shale players. If you read all the press, they've given plenty of evidence in terms of deteriorating debt levels, lack of re-financing (lenders unwilling to budge/consider) and the fact that there's still much production on the part of US and OPEC+.
Oilprice.com is a commie hack but if their data (and that of EIA) is to be believed than US produced more oil in May-Jun than Russia and KSA both. So its hard to underpin why US industry would chop off its own foot and then blame the rest of the world for an oil price war. America has been the top producer and net exporter of crude since 2018, and an exporter of gas/LNG since 2017. So its mostly a self inflicted problem that the US shale industry is facing.
Very true, agreed. Situation in US is quite similar to Germany in the early part of last century with the WWI repatriations hanging like a sword over them. We all know how it ended and what a waste the first 50 years were for the entire planet.
We're also in the middle of 30-year war as predicted by Nostradamus, another 8-9 more years to go. Its also been forecast (if you believe in the stars and all that) that capitalism will fail in the next 4-5 years, circa 2025, just like communism did back in the 1990s. FWIW.
Yes, I read that somewhere. Somalia which has been having civil war strife for decades wants to open up the oil industry to foreign investment again, provided Shell and Exxon agree to dust off their PSAs (Production Service agreements), deploy capital / personnel and startup operations there again. Same with Egypt. Many countries off W. Africa - and there's quite a few Ghana, Angola, E. Guinea, Namibia, etc. -- are opening up exploration blocks. Israel wants to ensure energy security thru its giant gas field. Qatar has been investing in the old but not yet depleted Bul Haneen field. And just today, Petrobras started E&P at the biggest field off Brazil. Also lets not forget the Saudi Aramco IPO in 2019, they paying and plan to pay dividends for a while ... where will that money come from?
So if all this is going on globally, not to mention Russia-Caspian region and the never-decreasing demand in Asia, then whats with the doom and gloom scenarios painted by leftist anti-US media here in our country?? What fine print are we missing? Here are facts -- of 800 Mil vehicles in the US alone, less than 1% EV/hybrid which means at least 750 Mil are gasoline powered. Double that # for ROW (Rest-of-World), say 1.5 billion vehicles consuming gas. Now add all airliners, ships, diesel motors, machinery (golf carts?!) ... you get the picture. How can oil industry be dismantled given the breadth and scope of consumption, no matter what the commies say?? The "replacement costs" are incalculable, petroleum derivative products irreplaceable, and it will take half a century or more even if the whole world pushed for it ...
Yes but only if the companies are 100% solvent, agree to fork over upto 30% equity to the govt. and if their bonds are highly rated by the agencies. So far they have NOT (to my knowledge) taken stakes in any oil and gas companies .... but could be wrong.
Nor has DJT supported the industry despite all the bluster and empty talk. He's all tied up by his handlers too, can't do much.
Thanks! don't mind being late to that party!! Heard they were trying to organize something similar in another oil stock, can't remember which one ... that one fizzled out too.
One can believe that most RHers probably don't have $20 let alone $100 to throw at random stocks hoping to make a dent. If only we could educate them in how markets work and how/why stocks move. Sigh.....
Why would OAS go up, that too tomorrow specifically? Insights appreciated ... That said, they're bleeding cash and quite high leverage at the moment so can't say how long they can survive in this environment.
Cheers and good luck if you're trading it!
Lets hope so, we're in for a horrible decade of wastage and govt. overspending if not. The sheer magnitude and ferocity of these anti-American socialists and their sweeping ideology will wreck the foundations of our democracy. Already, they've inflicted considerable damage.
They want to convert the US into a 2 class system -- the uber-rich and the poor. Like Dubai and other places. And they won't stop at anything, because we let them in, allowed them to become citizens, hold elected office, etc. Its just plain horrible whats happening in all the blue states.
Oh wow, the VEEP pick almost certainly guarantees DJT will win a 2nd term in Nov!! So why on earth did the markets swoon??! Maybe late realization will sink in tomorrow, lets hope so.
Worst choice he could've made - not respected among Blacks, unheard of among Latinx voters and Asians are not a large enough bloc to sway key swing states, so their votes won't change overall results. This will be interesting. All sorts of allegations will fly after the results - rigging, mail/absentee counting, suppression, etc. .. like anyone cares!! As long as DJT has decisive lead, its all good. He's the only one thats pushed back on immigration, China, NATO, NAFTA-BAFTA and all that nonsense unleashed over the past 30 years. One can almost never turn the clock back but still.
People are just terrified of the ultra-leftist pseudo-secular goons that have gotten into Congress, and their ilk will simply wipe out capitalism in 4 short years if we let them take power. Yeah, they're financed by big foreign money but the electorate is not dumb nor has it given up ...............
We'll have to see if they get rid of short selling, uptick rules, program (algo) trading, and all the associated issues with these practices. Whats with the buy/sell programs that use dark pools to disguise counterparties?? What and who are they trying to hide, if the other party is also trying to STEAL from retail?!!
Because its all institutionalized corruption - they control Treasury and in turn are controlled by the oligarchs in Silicon Valley -- not much we ordinary folks can do about it. You either play by their rules or you don't ... after all, Wall St. is the biggest casino in the world and they don't lose (money or sleep) over anything.
Its already down 10%, at $9.50 currently which is 0.95 cents pre-split. Had closed over a dollar on Friday. GL.
So true. Yet the lefty liberals at MSNBC, CNN, etc. won't stop blaring their horns about this virus, and how the world is going to end tomorrow. What planet do they come from?? Their foreign "handlers" and funders have done an incredible number on their ability to think straight. If the Spanish Flu of 2018 couldn't stop humanity from growing and expanding (that too right after WWI), why would this so-called pandemic where the death toll isn't even a million yet, and already the case counts are declining globally.
Liberals, their ill-gotten money and constant drumbeat of divisive race-baiting politics are more devastating to our country than anything else.
Agree with you on the HATE part. Really sad what the Dems are doing to this country, slowly and deliberately. Open borders, rampant socialism, unchecked immigration, freebies including free college for DACA/dreamers (but Vets and poor people are welcome to become homeless and starve in San Fran, LA, elsewhere).
In a way, it was bound to happen. We let the wrong kinds of folks in last 20-30 years. They're taking (looting) all they can and may even leave in a hurry should things get ugly or they're asked to join the draft. These are "transients", they go where the $$$ are, no roots and certainly no loyalty let alone national pride. America will probably go the same way as other western nations that peaked after 75-100 years of empire-building. Spain, Britain, Germany, plenty of examples in the last 500 years.
Works both ways -- temporarily -- and in CPE's case they'll let the shorts do their thing and bring the stock below $1 again, as if to justify their reverse split decision. Let's see.
I'm sure everyone knows that the same Institutions that supposedly hold million of shares (long positions) are often also shorting it (some other group, division, team in the same company) and even if they aren't shorting, they most certainly hold the bonds. That way, even if a stock under-performs and the company sinks towards bankruptcy, they're assured of getting paid. Double dealing, naked shorting, its all good ...
No need. They're pulling a "Chesapeake" on their investors it looks like. CPE just declared a horrendous $1.6 billion loss for the most recent Q and a reverse split effective on Aug. 7 (this friday).
Its got bankruptcy splashed all over it I'm afraid. Mainly due to the $3.3 Billion debt overhang from the botched Carrizo acquisition. Their timing couldn't have been worse.
Centennial (CDEV) is one of the weaker shale players hanging by a thread and a prayer, literally. Very poorly hedged, cash flow deficit for years, plus their acreage is not that great. Granted it isn't land locked like some others in the N. Dakota basin.
Every now and then they pump it up a bit during earnings season, much the same as Oasis. C'mon, you don't need volume of 10 mil shares to go up by 5 cents!!
Nope, incorrect as well -- the big runup Jun 1st week (or rather Jun 5th and 8th) for all stocks was due to the May jobs report and post-Memorial Day reopening announcements in many parts of the US. Nothing to do with OPEC which had already announced plans for cuts by that time.
OPEC maintained production cuts of 9.7 MBPD for 3 months after April price crash. Now starting Aug till end of 2021 per their announced plan, the cuts will be max 7.7 MBPD subject to change of course .
Noble Corp (NE) filed for Ch. 11 bankruptcy today to erase $3.2 billion of debt and turn over the company to creditors. In exchange for $200 million of financing, lenders will receive substantially all of the newly issued shares of Noble post emergence.
Thats great, thanks for responding. Oil & gas is a mature industry, and they have sophisticated processes for containment, recovery and even remediation of enviro. damage when it occurs. But it is still susceptible and over 120+ years of being the backbone of human progress and development, hydrocarbons have done a lot of damage to the environment.
To me, a bigger problem is the emerging push to so-called green tech - solar, EV, wind, etc. The leftist morons touting the "green new deal" have no clue of all the WASTE it generates. The average windmill life is 20-30 years max, and from the installed capacity in the US since the '90s, over 30% are now obsolete, unreparable or costly /inefficient to use. Hence lying idle. Same with batteries no one is talking about RECYCLING the gazillions of lithium batt to be manufactured and already in use. And what about discarded solar panels?? How to recycle those?? In addition to the massive global problem of plastics and other petroleum derivatives, we're bringing all these things to the market without a full-fledged lifecycle management program to include decommissioning / recyling / EOL strategies.
America and Europe have been taking the easy way out by shipping all electronic (and plastic) wastes to 3rd world countries far away. Now that they have seen what it truly costs, they're refusing to accept the West's unrecyclable garbage. It took decades to figure out how to recycle lead batteries, and then there was mining for minerals and rare earths that has left entire regions polluted and unusable for humans .... I could go on.
Why so quiet around here today? QEP getting butchered in the market crash . That is the problem with shale producers -- dirty, costly, inefficient, problem with storage and transport, not to mention huge environmental costs and utter disaster it is for air/water degradation and pollution in the surrounding communities.
Anyone has inputs on how the earnings will be for Kosmos? They're an offshore producer as opposed to shale, so the stock isn't in the junk/distressed category certainly. Also, the question of reverse split and how that will impact going forward.
You must be looking at last Q earnings. The just released 2Q report is an adjusted loss of -0.81 per share, much worse than consensus estimates of analysts.
Long awaited bankruptcy of DNR finally filed today. Financials and company management been lackluster for years. Nowhere to go but down for the stock, and its highly doubtful the warrants will cover the equity losses. Plus it compounds uncertainty into the future with shale prices going nowhere.
Good trading range for RIG is in 1.50 to 1.80 for quick roundtrip if one has appetite for it. Will remain range-bound due to uncleared messes (Noble, Valaris, etc.) in the offshore drilling sector. Also demand won't pickup significantly until mid or end 2021 so not much upside to Transocean in my view.
Well, good luck toe everyone and thanks for all the replies. Its a Nasdaq stock so I wouldn't touch it -- usually too much manipulation, and most sub-$5 stocks there are ravaged by daytraders, algorithms, dark pools and other fancy stuff that just serves to steal money from mom and pop investors.
Nasdaq is only good for the big gorilla techs, Apple, Google, FB, etc. most others are just terrible to hold and generally ignored by everyone including institutions.
Yes, but thats nothing compared to what they sold -- $420 million in Nov. 2017 and almost $430 million in March 2018. to me, its a clear exit from their IPO investment. I would discount directors and so called insiders buying anything as its usually a fake indicator. Very often just "window dressing" to mask what is eventually coming to the stock and company.
I was following a company where the newly appointed CEO bought stock in the open market (how symbolic) 2 months after joining the C-suite ... and then the company filed for bankruptcy 3 months after that . Was he and BOD in collusion on what was coming? How would anyone know, they all have their golden chutes and they ABSOLUTELY don't care about public (retail) investors. Now admittedly, it was trading under a buck, just like CDEV, so the company was already in deep trouble with debt and all that. He bought exactly 100000 shares at 80 cents, which is chump change to the typical CEO signon bonus, salary, severance, etc.
Not to sound pessimistic again but Centennial seems to have hit a rough patch last 18 months or so. In fact, didn't get much traction right after its IPO and been down ever since.
One obvious reason is the change from one CEO to another (Wall St. almost always frowns upon it esp. if for newbies like CDEV). Then again, they don't seem to be the smartest bulbs in the room having hedged their WTI bets rather poorly. Add to that less acreage compared to others and an inexperienced management team, doesn't make for a happy situation. Any thoughts?
Forgot to mention that Riverstone has sold most of its CDEV holdings back in 2017 and 2018. Maybe thats why the stock has been in decline for the last couple years at least.
Consensus view on earnings... what does everyone think RIG will earn this past quarter -- positive EPS beat, negative, flat? Used to be a good trading stock until all the Robinhood traders got too attached to it (or shall we say attacked it). Now its just flatlining for many weeks.
Look what happened to CPE a 2-day pump and dump despite being called out by the media and knowing that CPE debt is totally unsustainable with negative FCF and liquidity issues.
Not sure what is keeping CPE down, is it the shorts only? Oasis also has somewhat similar short position and its really trailing all the shale plays due to that massive $4B impairment loss they booked for 1Q. Financials are shaky for all of them, and if lenders don't play nice and travel, business, schools, etc don't open up soon, many could be forced into Ch. 11 eventually. A game of musical chairs amongst the small/micro caps now.
Extraction had only $1.59 billion in debt and less than 5 years in the business. Diamond Offshore had about $2.13 billion, yet both folded rather quickly. So some of these other highly leveraged balance sheets may also fall due to the knock-on effects.
Thank you both, tknuncle and Texas-Rick. Appreciate it. You may also read the posts of I-Man on this and Oasis board, echoes pretty much the same thoughts and sentiments on how misguided all of this is. But not least, how possibly long term the effects might last.
Doesn't seem to be any quick or easy solutions in sight, and ours is certainly not a small country like Italy, Spain or S. Korea. Nor is it homogeneous(-ly brainwashed by CCP) like China. Extremely difficult to get folks aligned on important issues and shepherd them to move in the same direction. Not in the current climate anyway. We can only hope/pray for better times and greater sense to prevail.
But its all OT so lets continue with talking about CPE!!
Governors of NY-NJ-CT have lost their minds forcing visitors from 31 states (the latest total) to quarantine if visiting the tri-state area. In the first place, who would even go there to vacation anymore, prices too high for almost everything, crummy people and nothing great to visit or see.
But they're determined to derail the fledgling recovery so long as they can retain power in their constituencies. Thats all it is -- a power game, without fully realizing the terrible economic consequences it could inflict. If this nonsense goes into next year, expect a full 10-year great depression the depths of which most people would not want to fathom. EU and many countries have still shut off US travelers, airlines are teetering on the brink of failure and oil demand will take 1-2 years to rebalance. Just amazing the partisan politics at play under the pretense of "saving lives". None of them dare blame those protests that caused the flare up to begin with.
We live in a strange world indeed. Read about how Barr railed on CCP attempts to "takeover the US" and how silicon valley had basically sold itself to hostile foreign interests. Quite interesting what he says about China's longterm plans to dominate the globe and how this virus scare they unleashed (indeed without firing a single bullet) has got to be a wakeup call for the DoD. China is the single biggest threat to the entire civilized and democratic world, not the least of which due to their 1.4 billion hungry mouths.
I've heard that eastern N. Carolina esp. Wilmington and those areas were being promoted as "studio central" since 15-20 years. Not sure how successful but they wanted to compete against Vancouver and other places as a major production destination for Hollywood types. Maybe that affected Asheville, Greeneville and RTP housing as well. Great place to vacation, all the way to Myrtle Beach, Hilton Head, Charleston in SC and of course the Outer Banks in NC.