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Tim Weintraut / Alpha Wolf Trading / Talks with Sean Folkson
Check this out;
Sean Folkson interviewed on Alpha Wolf
NGTF Supermarket Distribution
Nightfood is currently available in approximately 300 supermarkets, including Jewel-Osco (Chicagoland), Rouses Markets (New Orleans & Gulf Coast), Central Market (Dallas, Fort Worth, Austin, San Antonio, Houston), and Metropolitan Market, Market of Choice and Northwest Grocers in the Pacific Northwest.
We have shifted our primary focus to hotel distribution and believe that successful hotel presence will support future supermarket success.
We continue to work with our long-term partners at these select supermarket chains to devise and test programs that can drive supermarket growth.
NGTF - Onboarding two new ice cream pint production facilities
In preparing for the projected increase in volume, the Company is in the process of onboarding two new ice cream pint production facilities to replace the contract manufacturer that has produced Nightfood ice cream pints to date. As the majority of Nightfood ice cream pint sales in coming quarters project to be concentrated on the two flavors in hotel distribution (Cookies n’ Dreams and Midnight Chocolate), the Company is engaging a manufacturer with high-speed production lines that can produce double the product daily of our previous manufacturer. The initial production run at that facility is tentatively scheduled for the week of June 6, 2022. The other facility is expected to be used for other pint flavors and ice cream novelties and is expected to come online during July or August.
I was wrong here is the 10-Q
10-Q
NT-10Q No Problem IMO
Nightfood has filed an NT-10Q every quarter for the past 2 years - there is a HUGE amount of work for the team to put together as a Start Up.
If I was worried about late filings that I would have sold long ago?
NT-10Q today for NGTF?
Something tells me that the Nightfood CEO, will be unable, without unreasonable effort or expense, to timely compile all information for the disclosures required to be included in its Quarterly Report on Form 10-Q for the fiscal quarter ended March 31, 2022.
However as we all know, this NT-10Q filing will allow an additional 5 calendar days to file. Therefore we will likely see the SEC filing of the 10Q next Monday - which is fine by me.
Now imagine IF during this 5 day period the GHC gives Sean permission to release the details of the partnership it would certainly make for an improved 10Q - considering that the INITIAL purchase order revenue will not be included in this quarter?
AAIMO
Walmart versus Hotels…3x more excited!!
I am personally about 3x more “excited” about the hotels than Walmart.
Per the CEO of Nightfood on Feb 23;
Walmart was $37k in gross sales last quarter. I estimate that lost revenue would be replaced with about 125-175 hotels. The testing chain has over 500 hotels.
Where would you rather be - 900 Walmarts or 500+ Hotels?
CEO provides distribution update on SM;
1. The corporate level pilot test with the second of the five major players started around 5/1/22
2. Shipments are delivering pretty much daily at the distribution centers. (Michigan was set for delivery yesterday, Connecticut today, Houston tomorrow etc.)
3. What's the ice cream is delivered and activated at the DC (pretty much immediately, as I understand), it can be ordered by hotels in that region.
4. It takes time for things to move through the system to get the pump primed.
5. We mentioned on our call last quarter that a major chain has expressed interest in testing cookies iDEAL is working to get more deals like Remington Hotels in hand, and we have vista and our first GPO on our side to accelerate distribution now.
6. Certain things need to happen sequentially, and other things can happen simultaneously. We have lots in the works regarding new partnerships and new product.
7. With each step things get easier and to gain my momentum within the vertical.
8. I'm expecting a busy and fun few months coming up.
It’s just a matter of time
As the hotel locations grow….those who don’t see the big picture….will be silenced.
Yeah Nah….
Sean is 18-24 months away from something much bigger than $6000/mth.
Just you watch and see what happens next.
Get into 4000 locations and Sean will see profits. ??
100% tolduso sleep is the goal.
<1% versus >30%
For those of you who are wondering - it is my understanding that at this time Nightfood continues to be for sale in all of the 183 Jewel-Osco locations in Chicago. They have 3 SKU's within the sea of over 400 pint optionsI With having <1% of the available options in the set, I can confirm it is difficult to find the product (even when you know it is there), let alone somebody thinking about "trying something new".
As encouraged as I have been in the past (2019-2021) to see NIghtfood "gain placement" in various supermarkets locations - it became obvious as I learned more about the supermarket space - that paying upwards of $30,000 per SKU to get into somewhere like Harris Teeters (261 locations) is pointless if you are unable to gain the sufficient sales to cover the cost of placement? Not all supermarkets have slotting fees - but it will cost you one way or another? Imagine the slotting fees to get into 1293 Publix locations to once again be 3 or 4 SKU's with over 400 other choices?
The fact is that without $20-30 million in capital to use for the trade spend needed in the supermarkets - it is extremely difficult take market share from the legacy brands. Small start-ups find that their products, will often only sell well, with promotional offers like $1 off or BOGO etc cutting even deeper into their margins.
Unless of course you already have a made a name for yourself in another vertical (hotels) and as a result can gain retail placement on much better terms than a "no name" brand.
As far as I am concerned the hotel vertical (where Nightfood will often make up more than 30% of the available options) is really the ONLY affordable way forward for Nightfood and based on what we are now seeing, will likely be the game changer for brand recognition. Consider, that without the slotting fees, the promotional offers or the discounting of product, NIghtfood will make about $2 per pint that they sell to Vistar.
IMO the channel pivot from Retail to the Hotels will be the necessary catalyst that, not only leads to the Nighttime Sleep-friendly Snack Category being formed, but what enables Nightfood to eventually return to the supermarkets as a Brand with multiple formats and much better leverage on the trade spend.
Let's see if what happens if NIghtfood becomes "Brand Standard" at one of the Top 5 Global Hotel Companies? Will the others follow the leader? Will sales velocity within the Grab & Go lobby's match the 6 month pilot test fo 2021.
IMO the next 6 months will likely define the success of Nightfood.
NIghtfood has been on self in hotels all along Cam?
Remember what triggered the pilot test in the first place?
Sean made it very clear that NIghtfood has been selling product in a number of hotels even pre-pandemic - which is what triggered the IHC to contact him for the pilot test last year.
I will continue to post away and work towards you having a better picture of what is about to unfold here in the Grab & Go space.
Press Releases / SEC filings
Cam it is my understanding that all SEC filings and Press Releases are cleared by the legal counsel for NIghtfood.
If the language about goals, targets, projections and timelines is such that NIghtfood could be held accountable legally then it is corrected.
Most of us understand this - but you demand want "black and white" statements in this very grey legalistic world that we live in today?
I think everybody on this board knows that in a perfect world NIghtfood would have been hotel distribution nine months ago? But for whatever the reason the PO was not placed?
Something tells me within the next 6-9 months you will wish you held more shares than you currently claim to have in NGTF.
Timelines / Projections etc
When NIghtfood is partnering with a company worth more than $25B who do we think really "calls the shots?".
If the IHC says "jump" - Nightfood jumps!
When the IHC says "Sit" - Nightfood sits.
IMO the IHC essentially controls the timeline
And I am totally fine with that because I see the BIG picture. The value of not only Brand Standard - but ultimately Industry Standard.
SEC filing on April 27th
Cam you should probably note that due to delays in the initial purchase orders - the target or goal of being in 7,500 hotel properties by July 2022 needed to be revised.
The SEC filing on April 27th states;
“Now that we’re rolling into full national distribution with the largest distributor of snacks in the hospitality space, we’re working hard to reach our goal of securing distribution in 7,500 hotels within the next 9 months, including multiple Nightfood snack formats.”
That would be end of January 2023.
I could give a rats ass if it is by January or July of 2023 that Nightfood hits 7,500.
Having more than one format in distribution and perhaps a second IHC rolling us into their properties is a much bigger deal.
Some focus purely on the "micro".....maybe zoom out and take a hard look at the "macro"?
You are 100%
Because of NDA's and/or confidentiality agreements Nightfood is not able to use quotations from any particular IHC (I thought we have gone over this already?)
The information that Nightfood has released to the SEC is accurate.
If Nightfood is given permission by the IHC to place product for sale into over 500 locations what are they "saying" to the company?
What are their actions suggesting about their opinion?
The fact that a purchase order was placed from a national distributor within the food and beverage space is evidence of the IHC the opinion.
Think what you will...IMO the next few PR's will confirm the opinion of the IHC.
IHC Opinion was announced September 8th, 2021
On September 8th 2021 that the IHC (via Nightfood) "issued an opinion" on the retail pilot test in their lobby shops;
Tarrytown, NY, September 8, 2021 – Nightfood Holdings, Inc. (OTCQB: NGTF), the category-pioneering company addressing America’s $50 billion nighttime snacking problem, today announced the completion of a retail pilot test in the lobby shops of a leading international hotel chain. The test, first announced in March 2021, has been confirmed a success.
Retail Test Results September 8th 2021
Then the opinion of the IHC was confirmed on April 18th 2022;
Tarrytown, NY, April 18, 2022 – Nightfood Holdings, Inc. (OTCQB: NGTF), the sleep-friendly snack company addressing the $50 billion Americans spend annually on nighttime snacks, announced it has received its first purchase orders for the national rollout of Nightfood ice cream pints into a major extended-stay hotel chain with approximately 500 locations in the United States. Nightfood expects additional purchase orders to complete the national rollout in the coming days, with the ice cream scheduled to be in the hotel chain’s freezers coast-to-coast in May.
PO Press Release April 18th
Cam are you suggesting that the SEC filings associated with the press releases above are "False and Misleading Statements?"
Does anyones opinion other than the IHC really matter Cam?
It is apparent that you have probably never signed an NDA or confidentiality agreement? If you had then you would understand that there is a very valid reason the IHC has requested anonymity until the product is on shelf.
IMO Global Hotel Companies are marketing strategy specialists to the degree that most guest are "drawn in......but don't really know why?"
My understanding is that the IHC is launching a new planogram within their hotel Grab & Go lobby shops to meet the changing demands of their guests.
The actually IHC will likely be revealed this month - you will just have to wait.
The pilot test (yes with free product) took place "in a handful" of extended-stay hotels across the country - who cares if it was 5 or 50? Nightfood has been given the green light.
Walmart was not an error - but if the buyer changes and product does not have adequate sell through velocities - you get shown the door? Not rocket science?
You seem to spend a lot of time "suspecting and imagining" the failure of Nightfood which is your prerogative or maybe your agenda?
Personally, I believe the next 4-6 months will reveal the TRUTH.
Nightfood Industry Info Update;
Looks like Simon Dang continues to update the NGTF website.
Check out the new Nightfood Industry Info tab;
Industry Info
Edit
I meant International Hotel Company (IHC).
Or should we maybe just listen to Hilton, Marriott, IHG, Choice and Wyndham?
Can anyone on this board help me understand why a Top 5 International Hotel Company (IHG) would place Nightfood into over 500 of it's properties?
Come to think of it.....why would that same IHG perform a 6 months pilot test in the first place unless they thought offering a "sleep friendly" snacks to their guest had merit?
I am sure Cam, Travis or James can answer these questions by either reflecting on 2019 or suggesting that the entire Hotel Vertical is a scam!
You don’t know what you don’t know?
There is a much bigger picture here people.
Focus on the pending category creation - this is where I see huge value in NGTF.
Have a good week.
It was not stated that it “sold well”
“The reports we receive show that sell-through has increased each and every week since launch”.
The only number I have ever seen regarding sales at Walmart was the $37000 in Q2 of 2021 which was cleary not enough to maintain placement.
As even you are aware Nightfood made a “Channel Pivot” away from Retail over 6 months ago.
Keep up Spud…..you are falling behind.
Time to move forward Spud.
All of it was true?
What’s your point?
Rhetoric or Forward Looking Statements?
So if a projected time line or the projected goal is not met then you decide to call it Rhetoric?
Your examples below are simply forward looking statements (as Nightfood mentions at the bottom of all Press Releases).
Why perhaps do you think (assuming that you do), that the Nightfood legal team ensures ANY press release uses clarifiers such as "expected" and "goal"?
If did not then ANY missed deadline or projected goal could be used legally against the company by investors.
I for one am "looking forward" to the press releases of both May & June...
Forward Looking Statements:
This current press release contains "forward-looking statements.” Statements in this press release which are not purely historical (including, but not limited to statements that contain words such as “will,” “believes,” “plans,” “anticipates,” “expects” and “estimates”) are forward-looking statements and include any statements regarding beliefs, plans, expectations or intentions regarding the future, including but not limited to, sales projections, potential customers, any products sold or cash flow from operations.
Actual results could differ from those projected in any forward-looking statements due to numerous factors. Such factors include, among others, (a) the inherent uncertainties associated with distribution of our products, (b) the market acceptance of our products at all levels of distribution and sale, including retail purchasers, wholesalers and hotel chains, (c) the success and commitment of our distribution partners to access distribution channels and successfully engage with sellers of our products, including, supermarkets and hotel chains, and our success in obtaining purchase orders from hotel chains, supermarkets and others, (d) competition from existing and new companies and products and (e) difficulties associated with obtaining financing on acceptable terms . These forward-looking statements are made as of the date of this news release, and we assume no obligation to update the forward-looking statements, or to update the reasons why actual results could differ from those projected in the forward-looking statements. Although we believe that the beliefs, plans, expectations and intentions contained in this press release are reasonable, there can be no assurance that such beliefs, plans, expectations or intentions will prove to be accurate. Investors should consult all of the information set forth herein and should also refer to the risk factors disclosure outlined in our most recent annual report for our last fiscal year, our quarterly reports, and other periodic reports filed from time-to-time with the Securities and Exchange Commission.
Yeah Nah…Walmart is not an anchor
Consider Seans post on the company SM site on March 11th;
“I was on a conference call with two consultants in December 2020 when the email came in that the international brand wanted to test NightFood at the chain level
At that time we were waiting on confirmation from Walmart as to whether or not they were going to put us in. I told these guys that the hotel opportunity is much more important to the brand than getting into Walmart because hotel distribution would build the category (in my opinion). So, much bigger in my eyes than just YTD”
Rest of the stock market?
Not sure what “the rest of the stock market” has to do with Nightfood?
Let’s see how the 5000+ investors of Nightfood react over the next 6-12 months
as the distribution grows at rapid pace?
Maybe I am wrong? But if you look closely are what is happening here you will see that the Hotel Vertical for Nightfood is arguably the “catalyst of the category” - and that IMO is what ultimately matters.
Later
As they Ignorance is bliss?
I am not sure how you will respond to the PR from the Global Hotel Company partnering with Nightfood that will be released in May?
Maybe you will reflect on Nightfoods failure in their old packaging or the shrinkage that occurs in shipping with dry ice?
In answer to your question;
It seems reasonable to me that until the initial partnership is announce most of the the corporate level decision makers of the Top 5 Hotel Companies in the world will make their own decisions based on their own due diligence? Not so sure these “pilot tests” will be necessary once the product is fully in shelf and the PR is released on who it was that has jumped “all in” with Sleep Friendly Nighttime snacks?
BTW here are some recent comments from the CEO (on the company SM site) about testing timelines for Nightfood.
Chance are he has a much better idea about this subject than anyone in this board about the decision making process?
Sean;
“No timeframe (for the second test) was given but The speed at which it came together makes me think it will be a quicker move
More importantly is the speed at which I think brands will start to move as we’re in more and more distribution.
With more management company deals, I think testing will fall by the wayside. That was needed with the first mover, but when we’re in full distribution and already have a number of chains behind us, eventually i think it should just be a launch decision
Our not naming our first brand partner is at the request of the team at Global HQ from a business perspective and their preference
We’ll continue to follow the lead and preferences of our partners. This isn’t about an NDA being active or expiring. It’s about them not wanting us to announce the launch before we’re actually in their locations”
You didn’t answer the question Spud?
Anyway;
The chain is either;
1. Home2Suites (541)
2. Residence Inn (832)
3. Extended Stay America (650)
More importantly Nightfood has partnered with the parent company of one of these brands. And that’s a deal breaker no matter how any of you want to deny it?
I don’t care which one it is because the rest will be joining the party soon enough.
Industry Standard by end of 2023 IMO.
Nightfood sells in Hotels....ask the Global Hotel Company
Couple of questions for you Spud;
So if Nightfood doesn't sell;
1. Why would one of the Top 5 Global Hotel Companies decide to not only test the sales for 6 months.....but then based on the results of the pilot test....elect to then launch the product into over 500 of their Extended-Stay properties?
2. Why would a second Top 5 Global Hotel Company initiate it own testing of the same product?
Something tells me investors want the actual name?
Which description of a partnership is more "appealing"?
1. Nightfood has partnered with a Global Hotel Company and over the next 6-12 months will be placed in over 4000 grab & go lobby shops.
or
2. Nightfood has partner with Hilton (or Wyndham or IHG etc) and over the next 6-12 months will be placed in over 4000 grab & go lobby shops.
I personally do not believe the share price is going to move until investors see that either Nightfood is rapidly becoming "industry standard" or the revenues start to make posters like you go very quiet?
Not sure you can compare the value of placement in 500 hotels to placement in over 500 supermarkets?
But something tells me you really don't care?
Ad Flavors?
Interesting that the flavors shown in the advertisement are two that are not going into the Extended Stay properties?
I wonder if some hotels are looking to place Cherry Eclipse and/or Milk and Cookie Dough?
Maybe let Impulsify guide you as to what really sells in hotels?
This picture is page 12 & 13 from Impulsify's 2022 playbook.
Cereal is listed in the breakfast section on page 14 and comes 5th to Pop Tarts and Muffins.
Something tells me Sean (and the team) will lean on Impulsify data to help guide their expansion of formats and I would be surprised if it was cereal?
I am thinking NIghtfood Chips and then some form of better for you candy?
“Nightfood ubiquitous in hotel lobby shops from coast to coast.”
You have to love the energy of Jill Rigsbee of iDEAL Hospitality as she talks about presenting Nightfood at the recent AAHOA?
“We introduced the Nightfood brand to hotel owners at the AAHOA conference earlier this month, and I’d describe the response as overwhelmingly positive,” added Jill Rigsbee, CEO of iDEAL. “So much groundwork has been laid over the last several months in the run-up to these initial purchase orders. We’re expecting rapid distribution growth this spring and summer as we work to make Nightfood ubiquitous in hotel lobby shops from coast to coast.”
WHY NIGHTFOOD CAN BE CATEGORY KING: #3 - THE HOTEL ADVANTAGE
Investor Deck
Page 11 of April 27th Investor Deck;
Nightfood has active corporate-level relationships with two of
the five largest hospitality companies in the U.S.
One is launching Nightfood nationally in May 2022, into a
major extended-stay hotel chain with approximately 500
locations in the U.S. Another initiated a test of Nightfood in
one of their brands in late April. Each of these companies
represents thousands of potential distribution points.
Nightfood is targeting distribution in 7,500 hotels across
multiple hotel brands within 9 months.
Hotels have an obligation to help guests sleep better. If the
most respected hotel brands in the world trust Nightfood for
nighttime cravings, consumers can trust Nightfood too.
National hotel distribution can rapidly grow the category and
the brand, while serving as a defensible competitive
advantage against potential competitors.
How many hotel partnerships will it take?
Something tells me that the success of Nightfood in the hotel vertical is shaping up to be more than some of the posters on this board can stomach?
They really have nothing negative to say about the last 8-K's because they know that highly anticipated and projected press releases in April are a strong indication that Nightfood is rapidly heading towards being at the very least achieving "leading global hotel company standard status" and is looking more like it MAY even achieve "industry standard".
AAIMO