Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
ramfan60, as I recall posts in the past concerning your question, I believe in a BB the shares purchased can only be 10% of the shares traded for the day. Therefore, the actual BB shares # would fluctuate day to day. But that's from memory from prior posts.
However, I looked and found the below information.
Share repurchase
Wikipedia
https://en.wikipedia.org › wiki › Share_repurchase
According to SEC Rule 10b-18, the issuer cannot purchase more than 25% of the average daily
Based on today's average volume of 1.326M shares they could purchase ~330K shares daily.
Of course they have to announce the BB , volume will increase, SP will rise and ultimately they will be able to buy less shares. I'm not sure what restrictions Cantor is held to as they are the middleman in obtaining the shares.
Others need to weigh in with more expert knowledge.
If this was posted previously my apologies, but I thought it was an interesting read on PBMs'. I certainly am for them having less or maybe no power to control the pharmaceutical industry.
https://www.reuters.com/business/healthcare-pharmaceuticals/middlemen-have-outsized-influence-us-drug-prices-due-market-consolidation-ftc-2024-07-09/#:~:text=Pharmacy%20benefit%20managers%2C%20or%20PBMs,and%20reimburse%20pharmacies%20for%20prescriptions.
zip, thanks for the follow-up. I certainly would not complain about a $6-8B BO from any company. I would like to get on weith my life. GL and I always appreciate your posts.
zip, not sure why they would want to spend a few billion (I'm thinking positive) for a $1B tax write-off when they owe $14.4B in taxes.
JRoon71, I am still having a rough time following your logic.
As far as a BO price, the total $$ buyout wouldn't change. Call it $2B. Under the prior scenario, that would put the BO SP at $5. Under the RS/BB scenario, it's still $2B, but the pre-split price-per-share would be $6.66. Just because they did a R/S and BB.
So, let's say a shareholder has 100,000 shares today and Amarin does a 4 for 1 reverse split. Now the SH has 25,000 shares. Per your example a $2B BO occurs. The prior price is $5 / share and now the BB / RS occurs and the SP is $6.66. That's $500,000 to the SH at the $5.00 SP versus your BB / RS sale of $166,500. Giving up 75% of shares to pick up 33% in share price doesn't make good sense.
JRoon, help me understand your comment.
RMB, maybe that WOULD be the right move? (a RS) If they actually are planning to buy back shares, then maybe this is a way to to it even cheaper.
So you say it might be Sarissa's plan to do a RS and then do a BB when shares go lower? And then they would get a higher BO price? I don't understand how.
Seems like a really bad move for the shareholders. I don't see the net positive of having less shares and a higher SP. Still same $ amount.
I'm opposed to a RS. I think they should go ahead with a $25M BB which at today's pricing would take 10% of the shares out. Then Sarrisa add shares $10M or 15M shares which would show confidence and should get the SP over $1.
Then we work on Hikma, AG, Italy, France. EU will still be a slow ramp but having these countries final okay is seen by the market and potential buyers as a positive.
JMO
ProLiberty, I would use $25M and take 40M shares or 10% out of the float for now. Then hold the remaining $25M till they send some good news like Italy, France, an US AG or other positive event. Maybe a positive court decision on the Hikma case.
ORBAPU, thanks for the link. This should gain some attention to CVD risk and possibly V adoption for prevention.
Dave, if I read you correctly, you are on Medicare and V is still covered under Medicare through CVS. Not sure why they are callling it generic, but glad you are still receiving V.
RMB, from my perspective that may be the reason. Berg said on the ER call that they had that if they needed it. Question for the group. It seems the first year ricing is negotiated with the EU countries and then the second year the pricing drops. Is that due to an increase in volume? If the pricing is reduced, then is the AG lower price such a big thing. Just curious. I just have any of those facts so it's hard to even hazard a guess as to the current logic.
ramfan, I agree with regard to the share BB. They seem to be holding fairly flat with Cash. I know the new major outlier is what will the loss of the 25% of the 1/3 CVS market loss do. Will EU strengthen revs enough to cover the CVS decline?
Will Amarin receive two more EU reimbursement approvals prior to EOY (24),k but we could then assume increasing revs from Europe albeit maybe slow.
Will the Hikma case be sent back for a jury trial? If so, will Hikma be scared s...less about a loss and treble damages regardless of when that might happen, and go ahead and settle?
If we are concerned today about the US market and want to attempt to regain marketshare, why not go ahead with the AG?
So, I am in favor of the share BB which at today's pricing could take 80M shares out of the float which is 20% of the total shares.
Then Sarissa announce additional share purchases which would bolster confidence in the market.
A lot of possibilities but as discussed yesterday, it's very quiet from Sarissa and Amarin and most of us would like more communication as they promised.
JMO
tke, remember Amarin has $300M in cash and that much in inventory as well as the $1B write-off.
north40000, with your book just arriving, you have been busy reading to cover as much as you reference. Thanks for your notes. Without reading the book it is hard for me to comment their lack of coverage on Vascepa. V is the most secretive drug of all time. Amazing the lack of knowledge on this life saving drug.
FFS, thanks for your response and the chart with explanation.
FFS, I see you posted on Stockwits today with a projection of the rise in price after 7 days of 'false breakout support'. What is your TA showing as a near-term sp?
Prior to the announcement of the loss of the 25% CVS rev's you had stated the sp should be moving to $1.30 - $1.70. Any new TA projections?
north40000, thanks for the info. I did read the first chapter and the quantum computing world will dramatically enhance the computing capabilities. I will purchase the book and read more details.
GL
Dave, I understand. I just finished a 10 day stretch taking the antibiotic Doxycycline as well. Pharmacist told me to take 30 minutes before going to bed. One night forgot and got out of bed, took the pill and immediately went to sleep. Woke up at midnight with heartburn / indigestion. That persisted for two days. I will try to follow instructions in the future. I'm not taking V so I couldn't try your solution.
CaptBeer, thanks for the UK script growth. These numbers represent 37%, 33%, 29%, 25% and 25% quarterly growth since the beginning of 2023. Nice growth but we do need the Italy, France and Germany and then the China boost through Edding.
Thanks as always for all you do to present the facts for Amarin.
ramfan, interesting video. Don't think I'll be resorting to the cricket diet but it was was also interesting to hear the difference in eating fiber versus red meat (protein) and how the body handles them.
Thanks
concapk, I would initially like to see the the $50MM BB and at the same time have Sarissa buying another $50MM. Then we need the Italy, France reimbursements, US AG or new drug and a China/ROW uptick and this will be a much higher value BO. JMO. 2025 hopefully will be the year.
seve, please just sell and move on. You're a waste of my time. Even if I put you on ignore I still have to read all the responses back to you. Why would you stick around incessantly talking about how bad things are. You must not have much of a life. Geez.
Dang Skipper. Glad you are doing better and prayerful for a full recovery. Glad all I had was the tickling throat / cough. GL
ramfan, you probably took Lisinopril as a cough is a side effect that affects a third of people. I had the same cough and Doc switched me to Olmesarten. Just got back from my annual cardiologist visit. They took an EKG, etc and said heart was great, BP great. I told him my trig, HCL and LDL numbers. He asked me if I wanted to keep coming on an annual basis or just when I thought I wanted to see him. I told him let's keep up the annuals just so we can make sure everything is staying on track.
So, I then asked him again about V and his quick response was "you don't need it'. I told him I own the stock and his response was, it's a good drug and you should be doing very well with the investment. I responded that the drug is good but the PBM's / Insurance are switching scripts to generics when there are no approvals for CVD. Not much of a response and he was heading off to another patient.
Someday we may see better results from this investment.
GL
Yes. I only take a BP med for mild hypertension. Should excercise more but play golf 3 times a week and work in my 1 acre yard for additional excercise. Bike's in the garage and ellyptical upstairs. I stay downstairs. :( BTW, I'm 71.
RMB, I definitely feel your pain and frustration. I was raised as many of you were by the best generation of all time. Hard work, honesty, integrity and fairness and a firm belief and respect of the law. And in today's world much of that seems to not matter. A woke and liberal society just seems to be good with everyone can just participate and get a trophy. Forget about the rule of law and that flows back to AMRN. A liberal judge made a mistake based on lies by the competition and now AMRN and its investors have paid for that for the last 4+ years.
Maybe the Hikma lawsuit can be a start but as we know we're another 10 years out on a settlement.
GLTA
CaptBeer, as frustrating as AMRN is, I agree with your comments. I just recently had my annual physical and my results are as follows;
Trig 68
HDL 47
LDL 93
Blessed for I guess the good numbers but cursed for ever hearing about AMRN back in 2019. I know you and others have lived a lifetime with this stock.
GLTA
Dave, I'm not a lawyer and don't know all of the details but as I stated earlier today, Amarin needs to do something more than going after Hikma.
The three largest PBM's are
CVS Caremark
Express Scripts
United Health Optum Rx
These threePBM's represent 79% of the scripts in the US.
 I believe these are mainly mail order companies that reduce cost by not having brick and mortar
CVS purchased Caremark in 2007 for $21B to help CVS compete against the mail order drug suppliers.
If Amarin took one of these on in a lawsuit for their direct infringement into the CVD space who knows what may happen. Someone with more knowledge of law and facts of this will have to provide some information of the options.
JMO
RMB, thanks. I agree with the PITA situation you reference. The train leaves the station sometimes and there are forks and the train (brain) takes another route/s.
As I recall BCBS operates as a state by state programs as I remember BCBS Texas and Louisiana provided V when others did not. I am now with Humana Advantage Plus through Medicare and they cover V. I do not take V but always look and ask carriers and my cardiologist.
GL
NS, did anyone ever determine who CVS made a deal with for icosapent ethyl? I know there have been posts from members stating they had been denied V, but I don't recall the brand they were issued.
As stated previously, suing CVS (or other companies) would present challenges, however it is difficult to stand by and let these companies blatantly go around the legal system and infringe to gain profit. Doing nothing is not acceptable as we continue to lose marketshare in US. And totally giving up on US market in my opinion is not the way to go. Amarin earned it by spending hundreds of millions of dollars on RIT based on US FDA. Then the US courts screwed them over with Du. I know I am just ranting against a failed US system this morning.
Thanks for all you do for this board.
Kiwi, excellent message. But how do the drug manufacturers assure compliance to the patents? They can't.
'However, it is generally the responsibility of the drug manufacturers to ensure compliance with patent laws, not the prescribing physicians.'
We know in Hikma's case they absolutely induced infringement with their labelling, however in Amarins situation, it's the PBM's, pharmacies and insurers that are pushing the generics products for CVD. That's what needs to change and the Hikma case (even if Amarin won the case today) it would not stop these other entities. How do you stop them without biting the hand that feeds you? The AG may be the only answer for the US unless a new formulation is introduced.
On goes the battle and hopefully AD and the board are proactively pushing for a solution. GL
Whal, I do respect the knowledge and contributions of North, CaptBeer and NS to name a few. But others I don't. That would include you for the most part. JMO.
Whal, and what about you?
If you prescription is for CVD, then only Vascepa is approved. They should not be prescribing anything for CVD that is not approved. Change doctors or providers if your current providers want to break the law.
north, I still fail to understand why you want to sell your AMRN shares in your IRA account and immediately buy them back to lower your cost basis. Regardless of the cost basis, today they are worth what they are worth and there is no tax consequence until you move them out of the IRA into your bank or a taxable account and the cost basis does not impact your tax owed. Only the amount of money as related to your tax bracket. If you had sold today, you may have sold them at $.61 this morning and had to purchase them back later today you would /could have actually lost money on the transactions for no reason / benefit. Now, if you are selling with the thought of being able to buy them back at a cheaper price them you could see an increase in the total number of shares in that account.
Lunar, yes you will be fine as long as you do not purchase again within 30 days after your sell.
north, I have a regular cash equity trading account with Schwab, and not an IRA of 401K, but my response would be that just for your information they provide a cost basis of the stock you own. That is the way it is handled in three other 401K accounts I have. It's just information for you to have, but not that it impacts your income tax until you pull it out of the account. A Minimum withdrawl would constitute an action that would make it a taxable event. I'm not sure how you can take a withdrawal that is stipulated as a what (3 1/2%)? requirement and avoid the tax by simply transferring to another account. But I would think it would be a case of pay me now or pay me later.
But I'm not a tax expert but I do know that I have traded within my 401K accounts for years and there is not a tax event regardless of a gain or loss.
north40000, you are a highly intelligent individual and I respect you for your contributions. However, I do disagree with your comments reagarding any cost basis of stock in an IRA or 401K. My understanding is you can trade a stock daily if you want to, or you can buy it make money and move on to another stock or sell a stock and buy it back in less than 30 days. It is irrelevant. When you withdraw money from the IRA or 401K account, and since it was put in pre-tax basis, the only thing the government wants is for you to pay ordinary income tax on whatever you withdraw. There is no STCG, STCL, LTCG or LTCL to consider. GLTA.
MA52TA, I totally agree with your comments re. KIWI. KIA and negative. But hey, I could do another trial / study on KIWI to see if I change my mind.
NS, I didn't read the entire link but I did notice in 8.2 that it had a total of 'possible' milestone payments of $154,000,000 based on sales.
Whal, you may be right but over the past 6 months the stocks you mention have dropped as shown below.
ARDX down 50%
UNCY down 76%
FULC down 21%
For now I'll stick with the devil I know.