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PUTS Watch list : AIG HIG JCG DELL INTC QQQQ SPY. Markets are overdue for a big pullback.
AIG & Markets are going to correct significantly. This will bring the momentum stocks down even more. AIG stock went up big time in the last few weeks based on momentum and short covering. It is a bad idea to turn a trade into an investment. I see you are talking about 2010 earnings for AIG but they are in the process of selling their money making units to pay back the government. How can they make so much money if they sell their assets ? The jury is still out on this one regarding long term prospects but short term this will go back to low 30s at least.
Exactly my point. If futures are weak on Monday morning, AIG might gap down big time.
Barrons trashed AIG today. The stock is hardly worth anything. Read this article. I wouldn't be surprised if AIG gaps down big on Monday. This is like penny pump on a much larger scaleBuying PUTS is the smart way NOW to play it than shorting the actual stock. GL!
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http://online.barrons.com/article/SB1251...
It isn't easy for investors to analyze AIG, given scant analyst coverage, limited communication from management and extremely complex financials. Some may be taking comfort that AIG trades below its stated book value of $83 a share, the figure cited in AIG's second-quarter earnings release. By our math, however, the company has negative tangible common shareholder equity, in contrast with the positive figures for nearly all major life and property-casualty insurers.
The $58 billion of AIG shareholder equity includes more than $42 billion in preferred stock issued under the Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP). That preferred, owned by Uncle Sam, is senior to AIG common. Take it out, and AIG's common equity falls to about $15 billion, or $21.80 a share. The $21.80 figure is buried in a footnote in the second-quarter financial supplement as "book value per share assuming adjustment to AIG's shareholders' equity for U.S. Treasury equity investments."
Then there are some intangible assets, including $6.4 billion of goodwill and about $14 billion of a "prepaid commitment asset" linked to the government financial backstop for AIG. This will be written down by $5 billion in the current quarter as AIG reduces its $44.8 billion of Fed borrowings by giving the Fed equity stakes worth $25 billion in its two big international life-insurance operations. Strip out these two items and AIG would have had negative tangible common shareholder equity of $7 per share at the end of the second quarter.
Barrons trashed AIG today. The stock is hardly worth anything. Read this article. I wouldn't be surprised if AIG gaps down big on Monday. This is like penny pump on a much larger scaleBuying PUTS is the smart way NOW to play it than shorting the actual stock. GL!
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http://online.barrons.com/article/SB1251...
It isn't easy for investors to analyze AIG, given scant analyst coverage, limited communication from management and extremely complex financials. Some may be taking comfort that AIG trades below its stated book value of $83 a share, the figure cited in AIG's second-quarter earnings release. By our math, however, the company has negative tangible common shareholder equity, in contrast with the positive figures for nearly all major life and property-casualty insurers.
The $58 billion of AIG shareholder equity includes more than $42 billion in preferred stock issued under the Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP). That preferred, owned by Uncle Sam, is senior to AIG common. Take it out, and AIG's common equity falls to about $15 billion, or $21.80 a share. The $21.80 figure is buried in a footnote in the second-quarter financial supplement as "book value per share assuming adjustment to AIG's shareholders' equity for U.S. Treasury equity investments."
Then there are some intangible assets, including $6.4 billion of goodwill and about $14 billion of a "prepaid commitment asset" linked to the government financial backstop for AIG. This will be written down by $5 billion in the current quarter as AIG reduces its $44.8 billion of Fed borrowings by giving the Fed equity stakes worth $25 billion in its two big international life-insurance operations. Strip out these two items and AIG would have had negative tangible common shareholder equity of $7 per share at the end of the second quarter.
We don't need very bad numbers to go down. Considering how parabolic this upward move has been, I won't be surprised to see a big down day even on good news.
Tomorrow will be a critical day. We can possibly see a big down day to the tune of 200 to 300 red points on DOW!! All bets are off it they manage to 'fix' the data..LOL
Bernanke reappointment is a bad news for longs. There are 3 reasons I can think of right now.
#1) Fed won't have to prop up the markets artificially any more
#2) Last bullet is fired already. No more ammunition left. Obama used his last lifeline with this news.
#3) Rates might start to go up as Bernanke needs to start worrying about how he is going to manage the next 4 years.
Just a contraian perspective GL every one!
Monday - Reversal day - I am selling the strength. I won't be surprised if we close in red.
Bloated pigs Watch list : HIG LNC COF - PUTS on sale.
When the going gets tough, the tough gets going Hanging in there. The 'forces' will bring the markets down after they suck in a lot of buyers. Short interest is down big time and bullishness is very high. The short term top is here. We might see a big correction starting next week.
I agree the 'bloated pig' list is huge but betting against the market so far nearly wiped me out. Pain beyond words and thoughts. The end is near though.
September Puts on sale : HIG LNC SPY XLF : Bought them all much higher but market short circuited the shorts/Put holders and killed the premium. Whoever is buying these now might profit from the pullback. HIG 21 PUT LNC 24 PUT XLF 15 PUT SPY 101, 101 PUTs
I am selling the early strength (if we see some strength)
Personal consumption fell 1.2% (consensus -0.5%). That is bad news according to some.
Market is going down. The tide is changing, Yak.
11% Retracement Coming for Dow, S&P: Strategist
Published: Thursday, 30 Jul 2009 | 2:18 PM ET By: JeeYeon Park
Emily Saunders, CEO of Sanders Financial Management said she projects an 11-percent retracement of the Dow and the S&P.
“We expect [the Dow] to be back down to the 8,000 level and high 800 level on the S&P,” Saunders told CNBC.
“Right now, the major market indices are about halfway between the October 2007 highs and March 2009 lows and we think this is going to be a W-shaped recovery in terms of the equity markets and we are now in the top part of the middle part of the ‘W’.”
Additionally, Saunders said the dollar is on a secular downtrend.
“It’s had some strength this year because it’s still the world’s reserve currency,” she said. “But we believe that over time, there will be a tripartite global currency, which consists of the US dollar, the Chinese yuan and the euro.”
Disclosure:
No immediate information was available for Saunders or her firm.
Today's 'blowoff top' and the subsequent reversal to the DOWNSIDE signals a shift in sentiment. Looking for a sell off running into the employment rate next week.
Why I am buying PUTS ? Here is why.
This is a good time to buy puts because the CNBC is pumping the market. Look at the top headlines from CNBC this morning. Action looks pretty toppy to me. I see a big selloff in the coming weeks.
WHAT INVESTORS SHOULD KNOW
Picks & Pans | Stock Blog
Current DateTime: 01:06:02 25 Jul 2009
LinksList Documentid: 26720172
Beyond Dow 9,000: Pisani Sees New Bull SignsDon't be fooled by the flat Dow and S&P Friday: The weak results from Microsoft and Amazon should have dropped the markets more — but today was a victory for the bulls.
Art Cashin: Dow 10,000 Possible Near-Term4 Stock Trades for Next Week: Energy, China, More
Pros Say: A 'Good Time' to Buy EquitiesS&P Headed Straight for 1,250: Strategist
Rag, Nice to hear from you! I haven't heard anything in recent days. I am just sticking to the main indexes after the horrible experience with the pinkies. This is no better either Goldman & other analysts can be as bad as pinkie ceos when it comes to manipulation. RGNO & GFCI are 2 of the worst pinkie scams I have ever seen. I haven't seen any one getting punished in either of the cases. These CEOs played the investors like a piano. Creating short phobia, giving false hopes, blaming the skeptics etc..We all fell for that and paid a big price. This board isn't about pink stocks so I will end my ranting right here. This is a good time to buy puts because the CNBC is pumping the market. Look at the top headlines from CNBC this morning. I see a big selloff in the coming weeks. GL!
WHAT INVESTORS SHOULD KNOW
Picks & Pans | Stock Blog
Current DateTime: 01:06:02 25 Jul 2009
LinksList Documentid: 26720172
Beyond Dow 9,000: Pisani Sees New Bull SignsDon't be fooled by the flat Dow and S&P Friday: The weak results from Microsoft and Amazon should have dropped the markets more — but today was a victory for the bulls.
Art Cashin: Dow 10,000 Possible Near-Term4 Stock Trades for Next Week: Energy, China, More
Pros Say: A 'Good Time' to Buy EquitiesS&P Headed Straight for 1,250: Strategist
Down from here. Profit taking will hit the indexes and I am expecting a 7 to 10% correction short term. It can get more ugly if the data starts going bad..I missed out on this rally but will buy only on a substantial pull back. I won't even buy stocks here with your money.
UNG Calls : $12 Calls are good for a nice bounce..If you want to play safer, buy Aug Calls..
NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Futures contracts suggest natural-gas, the worst performing major commodity this year, could see a big rebound when winter demand picks up later this year, putting pressure on producers which have sharply cut back on exploration.
On the New York Mercantile Exchange, natural gas for July delivery currently trades at about $3.80 per million British thermal units. But contracts for delivery at the end of December are trading more than 60% higher, at above $6. Futures contracts for delivery in 2010 also trade above $6.
The situation where the price of a commodity for future delivery is higher than for nearby contracts is called contango.
"The contango is the steepest I can recall," said John Killduff, an analyst at MF Global. "Natural gas could easily surpass $6 in the winter."
Should such scenarios play out, winter natural-gas prices could approach, or even surpass $7, if investors keep pushing up winter contracts in the following months, analysts said.
Futures tanking on this news? Impact on GM reorg??!!
Court adds uncertainty to Chrysler reorganization
Justice's one-sentence order knocks Chrysler's speedy bankruptcy process into uncertainty
Bree Fowler, AP Auto Writer
On Monday June 8, 2009, 7:59 pm EDT
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Court-adds-uncertainty-to-apf-15471534.html/print
I am looking at YHOO & GOOG puts after seeing the BING news! It will be interesting to see how this plays out..
http://www.computerworld.com/action/article.do?command=viewArticleBasic&articleId=9134020
Based on my 'tracking' of this cramer guy, he latches onto the TREND once it is developed and stays on until the trend changes..This way he is always seen on the right side of trade..Who in the right mind will short NOW ? The ones who want to make the money The shorts lost big time in the last 2 months for sure..The longs are so cocky right now it reminds me of the shorts and their similar cocky mindset when we were trading at the lows..Nothing goes up or down in a straight line..I think it is a lot safer to be short than long at this point..
A good week for PUTS coming our way There will be another feeble attempt to bounce tomorrow but it will fail..Just my thoughts..Stocks to watch for big bounce : TZA SKF FAZ DUG
I was watching it too! This last hour manipulation has gotten really out of control. Downside is a dollar or 2 but upside is at least 4 dollars..So I see a good risk/reward
Possibly folks are hedging their short positions..One way of looking at it
It wouldn't quit..LOL..Still keeping some of my puts..I am betting more downside ahead..
Say it with me : PUTS are the way to Go! Short term market top is in sight..
Feeling like throwing in the towel ?? This is the finest moment for the turnaround..Do opposite to what your gut says or what cramer says Hold on to TZA (a bearish bet) at this price..
Thx, my friend I am doing ok. Got totally sick of the pinkies and stayed away for a while. Only big board stocks for now. Turned out they are worser than pinkies LOL.
GL!
I won't be surprised because it is not even 5% away and it will take only another 2 billion of our tax payer money from the 'forces' to take us there There is no way on earth we are going to sustain these gains..The drop is going to be fast and furious..I am bullish long term but in the long run we are all dead LOL
Retail longs are going to be suckers again..Media is feeding the frenzy on the upside and the rug will be soon pulled from under the feet. Clearly the big boys want to distribute the shares to suckers at this high price..This is what the same media was saying when DOW/SPX/Nasdaq were trading at the so called 'Generational bottom'
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB123654810850564723.html
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=37675768
PUTS Buy List
SWGSM - JUL-09 $91.00 PUT $2.45
SWGSL - JUL-09 $90.00 PUT $2.15
FCXSK JUL-09 $55.00 PUT
FCXSJ JUL-09 $50.00 PUT
Call - DUG
Head fake..Market will sell off tomorrow after Obama's speech imo..Not a reflection on Obama but there may not be much support at these prices..Just an excuse to sell..
S&P 500 Rally Is in Last Stages, Aurel Says: Technical Analysis
By Adria Cimino
May 28 (Bloomberg) -- The two-month rally in U.S. stocks is in its final stages and a correction will take place in the coming weeks, according to a technical analyst at Aurel BGC.
“The speed of the market’s gains is slower and slower,” Paris-based Alexandre Le Drogoff said in a phone interview yesterday. “Mathematical indicators are showing the market losing steam.”
The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index has surged 32 percent from a 12-year low on March 9 as investors speculated the global recession is easing and earnings at companies from Ford Motor Co. to Wells Fargo & Co. beat analysts’ estimates.
Technical analysts look at price charts to forecast so- called resistance levels, or ceilings restricting further price increases, and support levels, or floors limiting declines. Le Drogoff said his next resistance level for the S&P 500 is 924 and his next support is 875/878, though he hasn’t set a time frame for either prediction.
“Excessive overselling has driven a powerful rebound,” Le Drogoff said. “We’re near the end of the rally. The message is one of caution.”
To contact the reporters on this story: Adria Cimino in Paris at acimino1@bloomberg.net.
Last Updated: May 28, 2009 02:02 EDT
GM I bet our tax dollars will be at work to pump the market today. LOL. Today's close is crucial..2 in a row for bears will lead to more downside..The 'forces' will try hard to keep it up though..
Some even doubt the veracity of eco reports
She was right on money..This is a must watch video..
http://www.cnbc.com/id/30687770