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BB, as much as I respect you for your contributions to this board, let's be honest - when it comes to predictions, statistically it would be very profitable to bet against every single one of yours.
So, based purely on the historical success rate of your predictions, I am going to predict that the generics case ruling will be out the week AFTER next: Monday 3/30, Tuesday 3/31 or even later.
Kim
Futures halted. Market is melting. GLTA.
Kim
I agree with the prediction regarding COVID 19. We are just starting to see the situation unfold and I also think that the things are going to get much worse. I work for a US company with about 35k employees. On Sunday I was pulled from my flight to SF and there's now company wide ban on international travel. Domestic travel is restricted to business critical purposes only. CDC testing is very disappointing and testing is critical to any containment strategy, so I think we are already past the point when the widespread could have been stopped early.
Also agree that we'll get the favorable ruling on the generics case. I would measure my level of confidence at around 70%.
I also said this before and I am still convinced that nothing will move this stock price significantly except for scripts and revs consistently beating JT's conservative guidance.
Unlike Kiwi, however, I am not selling a single share anytime soon. My position is several thousand shares.
Kim
Could somebody tell me TRx numbers for December 2019 vs December 2018? I seem to be missing those and Sam didn't post the December numbers. Thanks!
Rose, I didn't really make any insightful predictions in my post. Just stating the observation that this board is on point when it comes to science and litigation analysis among other things, but always wrong when it comes to the share price predictions in anticipation of binary event outcomes. Do you disagree?
To me, this means only one thing that is more or less conclusive. There seems to be a huge gap between evaluation of Vascepa potential by this board and by the rest of the market participants. No single binary event seems to help close this gap. Everything seems to be "priced in". Do you have in mind any other explanations why share price never reacted as this board expected?
As BB points out, unless something extraordinary (like BO offer leak) happens, I feel like the only thing that might help close this gap is sales and prescription numbers. If you disagree, please state your arguments, I would love to be proven wrong here.
Kim
A lot of posters are predicting a move to $26-30 territory with this litigation win, but I honestly doubt it. As much as I would hope for this to happen, history says otherwise.
I learned a lot from reading the posts on this board. One thing I learned though is that most of the SP analysis here, even by the most respected and knowledgeable posters, never comes even close to what actually transpires after even the most important material binary events.
Mark my words, judge will rule in favor of Amarin, the SP will go up to 26 in premarket and will drop again back to low 20s. I think BB is right and none of the binary events can move this SP. It will only move up gradually as Vascepa sales will keep surprising all the skeptics. And only then, after 3 or 4 surprises, market will realize that their estimates of this drug's potential are fundamentally wrong. Then and only then we'll see the squeeze, FOMO, greed and a monster move up to a super overbought territory.
Kim
Question about the generics settlement conference on Monday. What is a typical timeline for this kind of events? Will they PR the outcome of this conference immediately after or it's going to take some time for the judge to come with an official judgement before it can be PRd?
Kim
Atom0aks, you are joking right?
1. No label, no coverage.
ggwpq, the consensus is that adcom and PDUFA delay were caused by a disagreement on the breadth of Vascepa label between AMRN and FDA. Doesn't it immediately follow that it doesn't matter whether FDA is supportive of sNDA approval or not?
None of the predictions for approval date can bear any value unless they are based on the real information about progress of label breadth negotiations between AMRN and FDA. As soon as they reach an agreement, the approval should follow almost immediately, because everything else seems to have been settled months ago.
I hope JT argues hard for a very aggressive version of primary label and FDA gives in to most of his demands in the light of the holiday spirit :).
Kim
Question for the board: what do you guys think of partnering in US (or US+EU) versus GIA and BO?
I am personally in the GIA camp, but as opposed to BO, GIA's biggest risk in US is execution of sales expansion. I have faith in JT, but the risk is still there. I think partnering in US would be like buying puts. Paying something like 10% royalties to BP like PFE for leveraging their CVD sales force would be taking a lot of execution risk off the table.
Even one of the biggest and smartest EPA believers on this board bought AMRN puts to hedge his position in the moment of volatility to take some risk off the table. Wouldn't it be something JT should do as well considering how cautious he is? If so, then what kind of numbers do you think would make sense?
Kim
Is taking Vascepa going to make somehow more knowledgeable about it? :)
Amarin should sponsor another trial to investigate EPA potential in improving investment analytical skills! That would increase the potential addressable market to billions (of fools like me) haha.
Kim
Ggwpq, this is not an apples to apples comparison. GBT was granted a BTD, which is very different and many BTD drugs are approved by FDA way before PDUFA.
Kim
From wikipedia:
In 1996, Warner-Lambert entered into a co-marketing agreement with Pfizer to sell Lipitor, and in 2000, Pfizer acquired Warner-Lambert for $90.2 billion.[62][57][58][59] Lipitor was on the market by 1996.[60][63] By 2003, Lipitor had become the best selling pharmaceutical in the United States.[55] From 1996 to 2012, under the trade name Lipitor, atorvastatin became the world's best-selling medication of all time, with more than $125 billion in sales over approximately 14.5 years.[64] Lipitor alone "provided up to a quarter of Pfizer Inc.'s annual revenue for years."[64]
Pfizer's patent on atorvastatin expired in November 2011.
Kim
Atom0aks, let me get this straight:
1. You don't believe that only 4 out 16 panel members were opposed to fda granting primary label and you are waiting for the adcom meeting transcript to make your own count.
2. At the same time you have stated that many other adcom members were opposed to fda granting primary label and for this you actually don't need adcom meeting transcript.
Unless you delete your previous posts, everyone on this board can see for themselves, that both of these statements are true.
Kim
many other adcom members thought the same
Warren Buffett
So far, I've found only this: https://investor.amarincorp.com/static-files/5fdd0e04-6ea1-4ca5-8768-3170fc6c67db
After this process has progressed further in the U.S. and after the regulatory submission is submitted in Europe and review of such submission is confirmed to be advancing as anticipated, Amarin will give greater priority to commercialization plans in Europe, including consideration of various commercial partner opportunities.
Kim
I think we should be thankful. The antagonist crowd currently consists of:
- AF, who has a degree in political sciences and no bio or medical credibility of any kind to his name.
- MRC, who is trying hard to stay super anonymous even saying that he is not a single person, but a group of people. For all we know, he is a very successful bathroom renovator. Also now with an amazing record of short selling and averaging up on MDCO.
Look at it this way. It could have been much worse. The opposition camp could have included a real scientist or a real MD with a solid record of biotech stock market analysis. The fact is, however, that the opposition camp so far does not have any members like that and this fact alone definitely counts for something in my book.
Kim
Not sure if this was already mentioned here, but I stumbled upon this hotel in one of my google search results.
Amarin Hotel: https://www.booking.com/hotel/hr/family-amarin.html
This is where board members should meet to celebrate at some point in the future when this journey is over.
Kim
Diversification is protection against ignorance, but it makes little sense if you know what you are doing. Do you know who this quote belongs to?
Someone help me out here.
I swear, I saw it mentioned in one of the PRs or investor presentations regarding EU plans, that Amarin was looking to partner there. Now, I went through dozens of PRs and presentations going months back and I only see mentions of EU submission.
Kim
KG, don’t lose faith! If EU partnership happens this year, then if a solid upfront payment makes it on AMRN balance in FY19, then revs will be well over 480M and I will be happy to be the first one to congratulate you on this prediction!
Even for 2020, if Amarin manages to get to 1.5B mark GIA, then why exactly would anyone want a BO?
People seem to be scared of market manipulation and bear raids. Yes, those are unpleasant, but to what degree it would be possible? It trades at about 18x 2019 sales right now after a well coordinated attack. No bear raid will be able to drive AMRN share price to below 10x sales, which means that by the end of 2020 the company will be valued 15B at the very least. That's $42 per share.
If you believe that Amarin can get to 1.5B sales in 2020 GIA, then I don't see why you would prefer a BO. With that kind of growth, the risk/reward is actually better with GIA: consistent growth, combo pills, new indications, then in 2029 AMRN will acquire GLD to become the king of NASH, which is the next big thing.
Kim
KG, I doubt AMRN will be able to do what you are suggesting. Chances of 480M+ are astronomically low.
The guidance for 2019 was raised on July 2, 2019 to the range of 350M - 420M: https://investor.amarincorp.com/news-releases/news-release-details/amarin-provides-mid-2019-update-including-commercialization.
I think it was still rather conservative thought. From my analysis of script numbers from Sam/Raf, I think the actual revenues for 2019 will be closer to 440M. Still, nowhere near 480M.
And yes, I think that with a decent label approved in December by FDA (secondary plus partial primary) and insurers reacting in H1 2020, the 2020 revenues have a decent chance to get to 1.2B+ depending on the execution.
Kim
JL, I am not in the BO camp either. I wasn't hoping for a BO announcement, which would be unreasonable anyway, because given a hefty price tag, it would be a very risky endeavor until approval and generics settlement are out of the picture.
I was actually hoping for an EU partnership announcement with solid royalties and a nice upfront payment to pay for an even more aggressive salesforce growth.
To be honest, now that I am wrong, I need to sit down and think again. This Oppenheimer attack makes no sense. There must be an explanation. Either those guys are idiots and really bad at it or this attack was planned in a hurry, a total panic mode. Why?
You said it yourself, that the purpose of the attack is to lower the SP, so they could either cover or pick up more shares. Why the urgency and with such a radical approach? It would make way more sense to seed some doubt and recommend a price target like $15, which would be even lower than idiotic GS, but still could be possibly explained that the analyst just has some science comprehension problems. But no, not a single point in the entire Oppenheimer report makes any sense. Like it was literally crafted by a person who was given a task to organize an attack and they only had an hour to skim through all the papers. I think the only viable explanation I have so far is ACST offering tomorrow led by Oppenheimer (again).
Kim
JL, I apologize if my comment came out in any way offensive to you. Yes, JT reiterated a lot of important points and I think the delivery was pretty good, but nothing really that I haven't heard or read in previous PRs many times before.
Again, I apologize if my comment appeared as attacking JT. In reality, I was just disappointed that it was not an announcement of some major material positive news that I hoped for (regarding EU, as you can see in my previous posts). Yes, I guess, I am frustrated by the recent Oppenheimer attack that didn't seem to make much sense and I tried to find an explanation. Urgency was suspicious, so I had high expectations that something like EU partnership would be announced. I was wrong.
Kim
P.S.: To answer your question, I think I am reading this board since last summer. Not posting much though until recently and I think I should stop, since it's mostly just emotional stuff that doesn't really make this board any more helpful than recent car repairs and BB's body hair density discussions.
Nope, nothing new.
The only two interesting points made by JT:
1. Oppenheimer is a fraud.
2. If you are not fighting generics in court, then your drug is probably not worth much.
Kim
Still listening to JT talking at Jefferies.
Nothing new. Just a recap of the same old same. Unfortunately, no mentions of GILD and nothing about progress on EU.
Kim
... or hairy billionaires :)
Kim
Marzan, agreed. At the very minimum, your points 1 and 3 would require some sort of agreement.
Kim
Excellent point! Yes, FDA are going to err on the side of caution.
Except that given Vascepa safety profile, the biggest risk here to be taken by FDA is approving a label that's too restrictive! I am 75% confident that FDA is not going to take that risk. Instead, they will be cautious and go with some variant of the primary prevention label.
Kim
Biowreck, I already posted this info earlier in this post: https://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=152378919
Be careful, BB got really upset at me and labeled me an Oppenheimer FUDster for providing this information :).
Kim
JL, thanks for this great hypothetical :).
So, hypothetically speaking, what would be the reason for Oppenheimer to urgently craft this nonsense? The only reasonable explanation would be that they want to acquire tomorrow in the open market as many AMRN shares as possible, right? If their intent is based on the fact that they somehow obtained leaked information about talks between AMRN and GILD that will go public on Thursday.
Look like BB is correct and SEC should look into it.
Kim
AMRN grew to become the biggest position in my portfolio since last fall, so as you can imagine my cost basis is well below $17 :).
I am not such a seasoned AMRN veteran as some of the guys on this board, but I've been an EPA believer for more than a year and now that this stock is so significantly derisked, all my free powder goes into AMRN stock and Jan 2020/Jan 2021 calls.
I also sold some of my ARWR shares to get more cash, so I could buy AMRN shares when I anticipated a dip due to negative sentiment in Adcom briefing materials, but that never happened. Now I am just said that I missed $21.25 dip in the AH.
Kim
Not gonna happen. I picked some shares at 21.80 and now feel bad that I missed that dip to 21.25, because I was arguing here with BB and googling stupid Oppenheimer corporate structure!
Kim
Mellow, in the link with AMRN 13F filings posted by BB, there're three Oppenheimer entries. I am as confused by this as you. I think we need someone more knowledgeable about Oppenheimer structure to comment on this before BB calls me Oppenheimer CEO in addition to Oppenheimer FUDster :).
Kim
BB, I know you won't apologize, but I think you are mistaken. First two are related, but OppenheimerFunds seems to be a separated entity that just contains Oppenheimer in the name, because it used to be a subsidiary, but then got acquired.
And no, I don't want to be Oppenheimer FUDster, because their ass seems to be on fire and they keep selling their AMRN shares to me in AH :).
Kim