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I might be nuts, but I'm taking my own advice and buying a lot at this level. ROW is very valuable, the rest of the market is still focused on US only and really not understanding. But I think and hope they just sell ROW and get a little bit of something for the US. Legally their done.
Personally, I think they declared that to keep any offers nice and clean. They said it would maximize shareholder value, but they really didn't say "How" and they can't anyway other than what they did state.
I really do think after all of this, they're selling.
I have to laugh at Jefferies $750M - $1B market estimate though for the EU. Sure they cover their butts in the end with Disclaimers, but that's ridiculous.
That's my thoughts, I haven't looked at the premarket volume. That tells me a lot about the conviction.
Exactly, so god forbid we don't win, keep a lot of powder ready to scoop up the shares because back to $4 which is where it landed before, you'll make 300% with European approval in 2021
Yeah I've read the Shareholders meeting was very positive. I agree the valuation gap will be the short term driver. If the 621 data is stellar, maybe a buyout coming out of phase 1, but usually following phase 2 is more the norm
Not sure on the buyout part, but the data delay which was in their slide updates last week is what sent this down. I do think the two molecules are active and this space seems in high demand, both good things long term. I just hope the market doesn't turn down in the mean time, because data or not data, it will get dragged down.
ZU - as much as I'd like to believe. I think the rumor for that money is for a takeout of TRIL.
Not that i'm genius, but I've been saying the same thing since about 3 days after the court ruling.
I've seen it discussed a few times. Maybe not all of what Zu brought up, but some of it. Also JT mentioned it on the CC. I'm sure very smart people familiar with the drug are bringing it to right peoples attention. Now will it impact AMRN financially, yet to be seen. But for the sake of humanity I hope it works.
I knew about the trial but never looked it up. It's disappointing V is only in one cohort group. The dosage is really low as well. I wouldn't have a clue as to why that specific combination and dosage.
ggwpq- one of the few things I agree with Dmiller on is that BO comes when you least expect it.
Everyone has their opinion, I'm just stating mine. Agree or Disagree, fine with me.
I did say I hoped to read about the statement, "there is interest in V by big pharma globally" in the transcript, which I did - The below was encouraging and I'm still in the "sell now" mode vs after the appeal. Because the appeal despite the odds people are putting on it, is a coin flip still. Flame me all you want, but the risk is too high. People are saying a CVR would be too difficult to hammer out, I don't believe that to be the case. But to get a deal done, we will be sold at a discount. Which I'm 100% fine with. If a deal gets done that results in $25 in cash and $10 tied up in a CVR. I would run for the hills. If it's more, that's gravy. Sorry I don't see anyone coughing up $50 pps +(in any combination). I was also surprised by the supply statement to support $5B in revenue. That was new news to me at least. Not from the sense of V's potential, but JT making that statement to the world. I quoted that part of the transcript as well.
Not going to comment on the substance of CBB's posts, however I agree overall.
After reading every comment on the litigation, the best being the Markman back and forth with Hamoa, it continues to show that a successful appeal is so far from guaranteed it's not even funny.
But yet here we are, spinning up the "hope machine", convincing ourselves that, "because this, because that" we must be right and keeping the UNICORN dream alive. I was right there for the longest, but this patent ruling changed everything for me.
Discounted BO is the only way this moves forward to keep the yellow brick road from not turning into a path of molten lava for the stock.
Call me jaded, call me whatever. Partnering in the EU would cause a massive, massive lost in future revenue's. Therefore you're pinning hope on a successful reversal and or China, future drugs, etc... . All long shots at this point in the game.
I'll keep beating my drum. And I did craft a cordial but direct message to IR stating the same.
To partner EU in hopes of providing a life line while pursuing litigation and thinking the chances are high of an appeal is GAMBLING and AMRN is not living up to their fiduciary duties.
Partnering reduces shareholder value, the rev value to the company is chopped by 60% at least. So if we lose "AGAIN" this is done for good.
Despite all the "holes" and "procedural errors" this is not a clear win. It has less chances now than when we had "high chances" the first go around.
So write IR, express your opinion in a appropriate way.
I did put in my email to IR which they have responded with the boiler plate stuff. THAT IF JT IS THAT CONFIDENT IN A PARTNERING STRATEGY AND WINNING ON APPEAL, he better make an open market purchase to show his confidence. They're in a blackout period currently, so we'll see.
It still doesn't change my mind on how this needs to play out, but since legal debate is the hot topic.
Anyone have access to the ROTH update from a hired IP Lawyer Shashank Upadhye ? Evidently he believes AMRN has a good chance in appeal.
Agree 1000%
I hear you loud and clear, but if its GIA put TOAST in all CAPS. This stock will be done. They can't manage Europe, plain and simple. No way, no how.
We can agree to disagree on how a change in ownership would unfold, but it's going to happen one way or the other.
Because if they partner the EU, this is toast with a capital T.
NFWIH! And you think a BO is not happening.
I agree. To be clear I'm not saying sell for $8 a share, period the end and walk away. But they can't press their luck and be hard nose about "the future" sales of EU and US CVR. They have to be reasonable and accept a haircut of future value to get a deal done.
To add to my rant - AMRN has hit dang near a wall at every turn. Everybody knows the definition of insanity, RIGHT? WHY do they or anyone think, "this time will be different". Some how they've climbed them or went around them, but this one is El Capitan and JT and crew aren't in any shape to scale this one. Neither am I.
My two cents - Sorry, but Thero can't have "X % Chance" of a successful appeal as a strategy. He MUST assume a loss. I don't give a crap what the details of the courts, lawyers, scientists say. It's reckless to think they have a high % chance. WAY WAY TOO MANY VARIABLES. Get a grip. Du screwed us, the horse is out of the barn. He has to sell for a fair but highly discounted valuation. There is no choice.
OK, that's what I thought and agree. I'm also in your camp or selling the company. We all thought as did the analysts that the original case was in favor of AMRN. Now cut that optimism by 90% and that's what you have for round 2.
No Thank you
Interesting volume and price action this last hour. not implying news, but is welcome sign.
10% beneficial owner filing
From my knowledge anyone who takes on or is a 10% beneficial owner must file within two business days of any stock transactions.
Today is Friday, that's the end of the two period with Tuesday being the big volume day. Maybe my research isn't correct. I was hoping if anyone in particular was taking a large position with the amount of volume we saw, would have showed up today in a filing by now.
TRIL
SAVA
Want a lotto/ hype COVID19 play - IBIO there are bunch of them, but this one has an intriguing connection. Due you own DD. The entry below 1.00 is worth the roll of the dice.
Reaching deep there Davey
Agree, that's why I like the prevailing thought of most, but HDG's the best.
Sale = ROW + CVR for US(if appealed)
I will have to go back and do my homework again, but thought Europe alone would be $5B annually with lower margins, so if peak sales X 3 (premium) that's put's the price at $36 which sounds stratospheric in this market.
I'd take $15-$20 plus a CVR for US Appeal
Otherwise they are not creating shareholder value with a less probable outcome in appeal.
Just a point of reference - almost 20 million shares have traded in the last hour
Yeap, that is the craziest/tightest range I've ever seen considering the news.
Keep in mind, despite the fact I want to hurl all over my keyboard.
This was over the marine patents.
IMO -R-it won't have the same level of "Obviousness". Europe is solid. That's a $5B market alone.
Overall we're cooked for the next 12 months that's for sure, dead money.
I hope it doesn't get issued till end of the month. It wouldn't make a dent in the stock price right now.
Now that its been declared a pandemic, business insurances cover more liberal leave policies. So it's not total gloom and doom, yet.
The price of the stock has zero to do with the valuation of a potential deal other than maybe, just maybe AMRN's management could take something less than originally thought. It sucks balls, trust me I'm now down $500K in profit from Dec. FDA announcement, but almost would prefer this event happen now vs two years into hitting it's stride.
Believe it or not, I have some dry powder I've been sitting on and will buy in the 10's. Never in my wildest dream did Ithink that was possible, but this is pretty unprecedented, in terms of the drop. I expected a correction in 20-21, but not this soon and this harsh. So yes I'm pissed as a hornet, but even looking in hindsight no one could have accurately played this. Unless you are DMILLER or others that trade and not invest.
And if anyone is interested in that space which is very interesting, I'm in TRIL. Bakers Bros are in it. I got in last week at 3.50, it's 7.50 this morning due to the GiLd news and will probably run higher. Could be a good swing play today.
in all my years of investing I've only seen this done like three times over 20+ years. Makes little sense