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“Drastically straying from judicial norms”.....
I think we may be hearing that again soon about the 9th Circuit.....
Am I the only one who's still confused on Thero's comment that they'll make a decision on EU in Q3?
To me, that essentially means they want to see briefing doc strength, get through the hearing and then make a call on BO/partnering/GIA based on that knowledge, before a US Circuit decision?
$134M of SG&A in Q1 is sort of impressively high when you think about it. If you call the sales force $100M/year ($125k/each x 800), that only accounts for $25M of the $134M in Q1. They haven't even begun the DTC blitz. Big number for a "lean", 1-product company. Also, R&D expenses still at $10M+ for Q1.
I expected to be closer to CF+ for Q1, especially given the robust $155M.
PS - I'm not interested in debating annual salary cost per salesperson.
LoL - you guys crack me up. I'm looking forward to when Yee reaches out to North for the next interview to tell us why the V USA market has not been impacted by the Du ruling....
Did Amarin hire Covington to concoct their Twitter strategy? It doesn’t matter, but it sucks.
Great post. Only thing I disagree on is partnering in EU. They either win appeal and sell whole thing or lose appeal and sell Europe. Partnering is a ploy.
Thanks for sharing and hang in there. EU is worth $15, minimum.
Lol, brilliant!
Agreed, Raf. The patent application filing date also gives us a hint at a friendly relationship.
Agreed. No one outside of this message board believes a settlement is a possibility at this point.
They were discussing settlement during the 'pendency' in which they could, i.e. up to the point of the ruling.
I think they're just saying that Hatch-Waxman cases don't allow for settlements......nothing more.....nothing less.....
I'm talking CG screening revenue, not Genomic revs.....no one cares about those. CG growth is anemic. V is parabolic. Go AMRN......let's just get our IP back.....
AMRN might have the same revenue as EXAS this year, who just released their Q1 and ugly ROY outlook. AMRN is also near profitability, EXAS is nowhere close.
EXAS market cap is sitting at 5x of AMRN. Crazy shit.
Well, would you look at that! Analysts are even starting to throw out $3B peak numbers for EU. That's ~ $20/share in a EU-only BO. They're catching on!
https://thefly.com/landingPageNews.php?id=3073495&headline=AMRN-Patent-lawyer-puts-high-PoS-on-Amarin-appeal-says-Roth-Capital[tag]https://thefly.com/landingPageNews.php?id=3073495&headline=AMRN-Patent-lawyer-puts-high-PoS-on-Amarin-appeal-says-Roth-Capital[/tag]
Sorry if already posted. Hard to keep track with the volume of OT posts.
Right - agreed. I'm just saying if we all think this is a 2/3 likely reversal, there's still the risk that it gets remanded back to Du, and that would cut the odds significantly, IMO.....
How are people feeling about the odds of this thing getting remanded back to Du because of all the errors?
This is what Chen did as well. Risk adjusted US #. Puts in to perspective what AMRN was worth without the Du doo-doo.
All that really matters is what old Leland says though. He's the sharpest of all the knives.....
I'm as pro-Amarin as they come, but couldn't agree more. Current commercial has literally wasted tens of millions of dollars. Sorry, but it's brutal...
I've been at people's homes who are invested in Amarin and are of the target market, and I've had to point out to them that this is the Amarin's commercial. That's a really bad sign.
John - assuming you're just hypothesizing here?
Good question that should be discussed more. I call it the worst case salvage value, and yes, it's in excess of current PPS < $6.
Wowza. I'm sure Covey/Kennedy are all over this, but it should definitely be passed along to Amarin ASAP.
The patents are invalidated right now - that's over and done with, unless the appeal is successful, but that's the status for the next year. There's no legal remedy for settlement at this point. 3/29 was the last day for that. I have run this past a very trusted resource.
You guys understand that there's exactly a 0% chance of a settlement now, right? It can't happen - there's no mechanism for it. End of story.
50% odds at retaining the US market is worth at a very minimum $3B. This share price is crazy, but people are scared of AMRN - we're cursed.
Marki - you aren't referring to a 5,300 share disposition are you?
Correct.
Deferred tax assets for net operating losses (and credits) are only ~ $130M. You have to tax effect them to get to their actual recoverable benefit.
God dammit, I just listened to the call too. They've got a 2/3 chance to reverse this. You can't make this shit up.
Judge Du royally fudged this. Even a dumb accountant understands her errors.
Hamoa - thanks. To Raf's point #3 in his last post, is a settlement still an option after the district court's ruling? In other words, can Amarin limit the 'damage' to just Reddy's/Hikma, or is the whole can of worms (all generics, including Teva) open now that the patent has been invalidated?
Right, so EU, ROW and US (whatever is left) is being valued at ~ $1B.
Thx. More hoarding as more US states issue SIP orders. NRx will continue to fall off in Q2.
That was a weird way to take a compliment.
I'm at 10k, and have my liberal buds thinking I'm nuts. They all think 10k in NYC.
Wanted a gut check from the pandemic math master.
TTE - what do you think the total death count in the US will be?
To play devil's advocate, look at our cases per 1M pop on this tracker. Could we really be that much better at washing our hands than the rest of the world? I think our woefully low number of tested individuals tells us we've got a long way to go before flattening, but hope you're right.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries
Yeah, "Made in the USA" is about to get even cooler than it already was!
Well said, as usual. We're fortunate that this scenario has the opportunity to serve as a good trial run for something that's much more deadly, and hopefully, we're all better prepared for when that happens in the future. Could you imagine the chaos and disorder if this had even a 5% mortality rate vs < 1%?
More buying ops tomorrow after horrific scripts. It’s going to be apparent that we’ll likely miss Thero’s even conservative estimates. Growing 50% this year is a huge stretch.
Wise comment - they are few and far between.
Started loading again in 13s today and will continue as we inevitably fall further......
I agree with JL. If you’re in enough pain to ask a Yahoo message board, you’ll likely need a dose of Augmentin. Very strange that none of the other docs or pharmacist mentioned. V won’t do anything for this. Get an antibiotic a few days before you fly.
He was implying that 70,000,000 (1% of world population) will become extremely ill and if you believe the 1% mortality rate, maybe even 70M will die.
It’s the same BS that CNN is spewing all over the place and scaring the bijezus out of the markets like we’re dealing with the subprime mortgage crisis.