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How could they possibly file a lawsuit before the generics launch? Yes, they must wait....
$10 would assume peak EU revs of about $1.2B at a 3.5 multiple. I get it, we're wounded severely, so maybe that's about right, but boy would that leave a ton of potential upside frosting for an acquiring BP.
I had just read that this morning too. Encouraging, and the fact that he was on the Cyclo decision bodes as well as it could for him being on the panel.
Totally agree on the CVOT.
My point is that future Omega-3 companies could just run an imaging study (18 months) at a fraction of the cost, before diving in to the Reduce-It type P3, half billion dollar (CVOT) study because they'd already have proof of concept. It could potentially accelerate the timeline of future competitors, but probably doesn't impact Amarin as 18 months + 5 years doesn't impact current value.
But isn't a stent isolating just one problem area, whereas EPA, or another Omega-3 that reduces plaque is unclogging the whole system?
Seems like a tough correlation to draw, but understand where you're coming from.
Come on man, don't be lazy.
To be conservative before approval (EU) and to account for risk of Appeal loss (US).
Lots of room to run if we win this Appeal. Still some room if we lose....
Why not just consolidate them if that’s truly the intent of what they’re saying?
Cal - did you ever get your numbers tested again after switching to V (from Nordic Naturals EPA + DHA)? Would be curious of the results. TIA.
Her valuations were also based only on the SHTG market for both the US and EU, so tons of upside if a US Appeals win and then EU is obviously being way undervalued (until approval).
So true, Mikenac. Here in Minneapolis (probably most similar to Seattle), the great migration out of Mpls is well underway. Real estate prices have been slashed and many large companies are beginning their plan to exit the city. Employees have expressed fear and the rent isn’t worth the hassle. The lawmakers will be shocked when Mpls tax revenues decrease significantly over the next 12 - 36 months. It’s a nightmare. People want further out from the city.
How does this relate back to Amarin? Simple.....liberal policies come to reality in something all of us have now felt......the unjust decision of Judge Du. This stuff isn’t rocket science.
Corruption comes in many different forms. Having almost anything to do with Harry Reid, much less, being paraded by him in 2012, doesn't exactly deserve the benefit of the doubt in my mind.
Also, you may want to do a deep dive into her law clerk before being so sure that's she's fair and impartial, and not just using her position to advance a political agenda.
"This cannot be law"
But Du admits that long-felt need and commercial success are favorable, and then goes on to state that they are OUTWEIGHED. That doesn't make any sense to then argue that the unhelpful evidence didn't diminish long-felt need and commercial success.
I'm still confused by what "mixed" means.....but I'm guessing the district court in the BMS case didn't come out and admit positive secondary considerations, rather, they just mentioned that they were "mixed"?....
The key here is that in the BMS ruling, the AC stated "We do not read the opinion as suggesting that unhelpful evidence somehow diminished the strength of the more persuasive forms of evidence."
However, in the Du ruling, Judge Du conducted a “weighing of the secondary considerations.” Despite finding that long-felt need and commercial success actually supported Amarin’s arguments that the patents were not obvious, the Court concluded that, “these secondary considerations [long-felt need and commercial success] are OUTWEIGHED by the fact that the Court found Plaintiffs’ other proffered secondary considerations favor Defendants.” (Bench Order at 69).
OUTWEIGHED = DIMINISHED
Cool! Thanks Raf!
So when are we running Reduce-It-More, using 6 grams of V, 2x per day?
I’ll guess 32% RRR, we enroll TG down to 75 mg/dl and don’t enroll in Eastern Europe.....
Thanks Raf. This has been a fun journey since 9/24/18. ;)-
This is not that hard, it was 110% about DTC.
We all understand that, Bill B. But why does an INJECTABLE drug, like Humira, with WAY more risks than Vascepa, need 10 less seconds of risks/disclaimers? Doesn’t add up to ad savvy IMO....
What commercials do you remember, especially if you’re not heavily invested in the company? They’re all catchy! I get we’re not going to get funny or cute (like a SB ad), but catchy (music) should be a prereq like the other commensurate drugs that we’re aiming for similar selling status.
Spending 54% of your airtime on risks and disclaimers makes it sounds like a Car-T cell cancer treatment. For cripes sake, this is the safest drug in history!
Good analysis. And this is for the safest cardio drug in history. Might need an auctioneer to read the disclaimers rather than spend 54% of the total commercial on risks.
Catchy tune is needed. Where’s “The Beat” Amarin!?
Same. What are they waiting for with the “Got the Beat” campaign? At least the music would be catchy during the 35 seconds of disclaimers.
Typical Amarin.
Word to your mother.
Marj - this is in reference to the CURRENT settlement discussion only. I believe everyone questions what happened prior to mid-Jan, but as you mention, we just don’t have the details to properly evaluate.
Thanks for posting. Haven't looked at the details of the Liquid Power case, but it sounds like there was just reconsideration of the secondaries, versus the AMRN position where there will be reconsideration + the totally wacky, unprecedented, offsetting of secondaries.
Chas - good to hear from you. Agree with your comments.
Do you plan to hedge the AC decision if the stock price sticks around $7 - $8?
You mean "Quit Playing Games with my Heart" by the Backstreet Boys, right Raf?
Reverse: 45%
Affirm: 45%
Remand: 9%
Settle: 1%
Right, but that's customary for "other terms" to be confidential. The fact that it stated nothing financial was exchanged means just that.
This is just common business sense from Apotek, but hope I'm proven wrong!
Agreed. Less than 1M shares. Just retail chasing the headline......
Amarin paid them nothing, per the press release.
I really don't even see this as incrementally positive. Apotek knows Amarin's patents are strong, like Teva did. So why spend the dough to litigate (and very likely lose) when you can just join in the fun if Reddy's/Hikma win......hell, they've already caught the Hail Mary on the 1 yard line!!!!
Why wouldn't Apotex settle at this point? Nothing burger. They're still in the game if the generics win.
I think this is correct, Raf. Even though the case is a slam dunk, if following evidence correctly, Covington didn’t give it the respect that they should have. The fact that an IHub message board poster first identified statistical errors that were previously undiscovered by either Covington or Kennedy’s team is unforgivable. Kennedy’s team is just as guilty here. What in the hell else does an internal legal department do for a one-drug company, other than know every detail and quadruple check things like statistics used in prior art of generics.
TTE is right though. The $5k tailored suits handicapped the case in favor of the generics from the start.....failure of the arbitration/settlement hearings. I’ve worked with Covington many times - they’re good, but damn are they arrogant. It caught up to them here.
Why do you say that? I work for a global accounting firm and have large clients that hire boutique firms, who employee ex-IRS Commissioners as "consultants", and it matters in aggressive IRS audits. How is this different and it carries no weight? They know the processes, personalities of the decision makers, etc. It makes a difference and is why these people get big bucks in private industry....
MRM - I've spoken with two IP attorneys in my network that are both investors in AMRN. They both said that they've never seen such a flawed decision, but wouldn't go past 2/3 on a reversal. They mentioned that a typical appeal has one line of attack for the patentee - AMRN has a handful.
Let's see what TTE thinks. He's a smart fella.....
Despite all of the AMRN drama, I still used to think that Adam was an informed source that enjoyed being controversial, but was fair in his analysis at the end of the day.
Those days have past and it couldn't be more clear what Adam is all about. Nowadays, he's like the CNN of biotech. Riling and stoking low hanging fears and emotions. He's beyond worthless.
This is one of the most confusing messages that I've ever read.
Zach was at 60% of winning the district court decision as well, while most other patent consultants were closer to 80-90%. He's super conservative.
Yes, but wouldn't Amarin need to file a petition for en banc by June 12th? Could Singer/Amarin be waiting to submit until the very day that the generics submit their brief?
Six out of 11 judges can’t bury facts like Du did. En Banc would be a slam dunk.
I think your dates are wrong, but nonetheless her stepson was caught in the opioid addiction. Du is a Harry Reid appointee.....big pharma is evil....big pharma execs should be jailed for causing opioid epidemic. Judge Du was personally impacted (recently) before hearing the Amarin case. Wild, sad, but relevant.