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My guess is they tweet out some Valentine's recipe, heart healthy, with an on-demand link to Preston Mason cooking the dish. Yes, of course the "bundle" price will be $295.
OMG, I love buddies of buddies buddies who told buddies hedge fund about AMRN. We are mooning soon!!!!
Just imagine if they hadn’t done the raise in summer ‘19, then Covid hits. It could have been really damn ugly trying to raise cash at $4/share.
If we see an equity raise, I’m out ASAP.
I don't think so. Teva out with a comment that they view this development as favorable as well.
It's the original panel that will re-visit this, it's not En Banc.
It looks good for Teva. They're now focusing on just the period prior to when the FDA forced Teva to add the infringing "congestive heart failure" on the label, basically suggesting that the FDA forcing a label can't induce infringement, IMO.
Oh, don’t make this about politics, it’s about Amarin. ;)-
The only problem is that Tom publicly showed support for a freely elected US president. That’s not allowed by the left, so you eliminate 50% of your US Vascepa base.
#cancelculture
Yes, but I'm comparing Q3 2020 to Q3 2019, so price cut was in effect for both periods. My point is that many popular drugs (which Amarin compares their growth to), had sales increases despite the pandemic. All of these other drugs don't have a dedicated sales team selling only that one drug, like Amarin does. Amarin literally has 900 people selling only Vascepa all-day, every day....that's the only mission.
Understand the insurance challenges.
Praluent sales in Q3 of 2020 were up 44% over Q3 2019.
At some point investors (and AMRN) need to determine what they're getting in return for $300M of marketing/sales costs.
I understand all of the challenges of selling in the current environment, which is why I have set expectations at ONE new script per week.
50 hours.....ONE script......25%RRR.....NNT of 12
Remember that cute story that Thero shared about 14 months ago? A salesman was being ignored by a doctor and the salesman yelled down the hall "NNT of 12!!!!".....and the doctor turned his head and came back to talk.
This is not a hard drug to sell. ONE script in 50 hours.
Good idea, Raf. Does anyone know of an available army of 900 people who have an extra 45,000 hours per week to make these calls?
Scripts are at the same place as when AMRN was granted the R-It label. If each of the 900 salesman convinced just ONE new doctor per week to put just ONE new patient on Vascepa, that would be an extra 60k scripts by now, or ~ 144,000 total weekly scripts. We would be growing the market faster than the generics can supply!! But that isn't happening.
I guess expecting one new script per week per salesman is too much for 50 hours of work. Zero is a much more palatable number.
Thanks for posting, Tuc.
Yep, or a Marzan Monday. Give us $15 for EU, $5 for ROW and $1 for US + CVR. Sign me up!!
Good exchange guys, thanks for sharing.
HEAVVVYYY SARCASM.....
Thanks for posting the full note!
Because it goes from a "multi-billion" dollar opportunity to a $500M opportunity if they partner in EU. Also, takes BO off table and assures we don't trade > $10 for the next 2 years.
Agree on Edding footprint. This is a big deal from a supply perspective.
Tell us more about the Chinese approval process and what this means. Thx!
Kastelein certainly knows his way around Big Pharma. Thanks for sharing.
John J. P. Kastelein received personal consulting fees from: Sanofi, Affiris, Akarna Therapeutics, Amgen Inc, CSL Behring, Regeneron, Staten Biotech, Madrigal, The Medicines Company, Kowa, Lilly, Esperion, Gemphire, Ionis Pharmaceuticals, Akcea Pharmaceuticals.
Either way, Joe Z certainly has had the last laugh here. I remember being concerned about him completely selling out of his position in early January. Very few people had more knowledge of the patent situation than him. Makes you wonder what the true handicapping of the case was internally.
What are they spending 2,000,000 hours per year doing then if it's not "on them" and really just an insurance issue?
Yes, that's 2 million hours a year. 2 MILLION!!!
But to assume #1 would assume that they’re selling something like printers at Best Buy that need to be “resold” every year. Look, I know there’s some natural attrition to scripts (people die, etc), but 95% of your base (85k scripts) is going to repeat itself without the sales team doing jack. I would love for someone to poke a hole in this, but I have not been able to make sense of the sales team’s lack of performance - same goes for the ad spend.
What should each salesperson’s new weekly script goal have been in 2020? If anything more than zero (LoL), I don’t get it.
We were at 85k scripts at the end of 2019. If each of the 800 sales folks "sold" just ONE additional script each week, our scripts would have been ~ 125k at the end of 2020. Look, I get the whole Covid challenge bit, but what are they doing for 40 - 50 hours per week? Seriously, one script a week with a best in class NNT, 25% RRR, TV ad campaign to supplement, safety of water and significantly expanded coverage in 2020. Should the expectation be zero scripts per week per salesperson?
I just don't get it......
Confirmation bias.
The same reason all of us dummies didn’t sell at $25.
GIA 7.50 at 12/31/21
Thanks for posting.
I agree, but strange that the market valued Amarin's patent infringement case at 0%. Assuming US market is worth ~ $20/share, just a 15% chance of success would have resulted in a $3 move today.
Please get me out of this nightmare of an investment with a $15 BO!!
Good info - thx!!!&
Spot on. And.....if the plan was always that the Marine label was "weak" and could be sacrificed because our supply head-start was so great, you wouldn't have to Monday morning quarterback Bhatt authoring a Hail Mary article about how the District Court got it wrong.
Correction.....Amarin gets an F in the legal realm....
No for the wife and I and we haven't exactly been locked down.
Thank you, sir!
Yep, Agreed. There's no friendliness between the two - it's a battle. And don't forget..... "generics don't budget more than 5 years out".....
In other words, they (Hikma) weren't interested in settlement, even in 2025. I think that pissed Thero/Amarin off. They think they hold the aces....do they?!?
There's no chance of a settlement at this point. If you've listened to Hikma's CEO's comments - there is deep disdain there. Amarin/Thero have come at this heavy handed since pre-trial negotiations and feel they have a real legal position, or still feel super confident in their supply head-start. Either way, we don't know which of the two has given them this confidence, but they do feel it enough to keep running expensive TV ads, while holding on to 800 reps.
Let's hope under promise, over deliver continues to be the MO.
Follow up.......why didn't Thero just sell another 48k shares to cover the purchase price of all the exercises? Still would have been a net 120k share increase at that point.
A sign?
Agreed. It cost Thero 565,000 shares to execute this 'cashless exercise.' If the stock were trading at $25, it would have only cost him 90,000 shares. Ouch, that hurts. He also kicked in $200k of his own cash in the exercise, so it wasn't completely cashless.
In other words, it was akin to Thero purchasing 50k shares on the open market (for the cash he kicked in). Plus....he could have sold all of the acquired shares and did not. Slightly less bullish than the $200k of shares acquired, but still noteworthy.
Net bullish move.
HAS ANYONE HERE HAD GENERIC V DISPENSED TO THEM?
Kiwi - agreed. They've only risked legal fees to date. If they've risked more (supply agreements), they're even more likely to launch, even if significant risks involved from GSK/Teva.
The good news is that the market hasn't priced in no launch from the generics, otherwise, we'd be at $15+.
Probably the best post of the month. Completely agree.
Card - would you say that about statins too? "Statins are not that powerful as you imagine"
Tax loss carry-forwards need to be tax effected, so their cash value is only ~ $200M. Buying companies don't pay dollar-for-dollar for tax loss-carryforwards either......
8 - Amarin sold $300M annually under the Marine label and sales were still increasing (before R-It readout). That is pretty substantial.
This was the perfect fight for a generic skinny-label win.