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Also, if you haven't noticed, I'm going sarcastic-negative on AMRN until something good actually happens.
It's been 363 days since I've been happy and I'm tired of that.
Could they make it any harder to actually find out that TTYH is related to Vascepa? I'm a heavily biased bagholder of AMRN, and I still had trouble figuring out what to do on that silly TTYH website.
What a bust of a campaign that was.
Kiwi - assuming you sold the big pop, as usual?
JT too busy putting together the next 1990s gif for Twitter to notice news.
Capt - any idea how many sales reps generic Lovaza has?
I don't get it. They literally have the largest salesforce of any 1-drug pharmaceutical company in the world. Every industry has had to adapt to a virtual environment and get creative. Every industry has been challenged. Amarin has had over 2,000,000 100% dedicated hours to get creative and move V scripts over the past year through webinars, phone call, Zoom calls, virtual wine tasting, virtual dinner, etc.
I'm flabbergasted.
40,000 hours per week, selling only 1 drug. Assisted by national TV ad campaign.
2,000,000 hours per year.
What is happening in these 40,000 hours per week? That's a shitload of hours.
In all seriousness, I agree. Doesn’t make sense, especially when you compare to “competitor” drugs that maybe have a million or two views. I mean just think if 0.5% of viewers asked their doctor.
Is this a GoopLabs product?
Raf, didn’t you read the updated marketing plan press release? They allocated all 2,000,000 sales force hours to clicking on the YouTube commercial video.
They’re blowing that one out of the water!!
Hey Chas....can we get one final, "this may be the last buying opportunity in a series of unending......" messages from you?
I honestly think it will stick this time. TIA.
See...this is what I mean!! Spot on practicality and no rainbow Rule 60 dreams (although I 100% commend the effort).
We all have the "I wish I sold at $25" regret, but I'm trying to stay positive these days. We'll be in double digits this year, easy, and MLTK sold within the next 12 months for $16 - $20. Not the easy $40 we had all imagined, but still not too bad considering the nightmare 2020 and squandered 2,000,000 salesforce hours per year, right?!?!
I have a good friend who invested in TRVN. He joined a class action suit for a "lie" told by management re: FDA approval discussions. I rolled my eyes when he told me he joined the suit. He lost ~ $150k (i.e. sold his position). He recovered ~ $140k in the class action suit, after attorney fees. I was shocked at the recovery % (he was one of the lead cases).
Surprised AMRN hasn't been sued over the Reno case.
You're a practical, realistic thinker who doesn't allow confirmation bias to cloud your vision. A rarity these days!
40,000 hours per week dedicated to selling only 1 product.
What's happening in those 40,000 hours per week? In you're not aware, that's a shitload of hours!
Ralphey - please keep your expectations in check. It’s not like they have 900 sales reps selling just one drug all-day, every-day. I mean, what do you expect with only 2,000,000 hours per year?
Yeah, maybe. With the obvious clarity of hindsight, the generic threat was vastly UNDER exaggerated though. JT even mocked the ANDA threat at one point saying he’d be “offended if there weren’t ANDA filings”. His bravado in this area ultimately contributed heavily to me holding my full position through the Reno case.
I think what you're seeing is the realization that AMRN is likely dead money in 2021 (with BO likely off table) and there are a lot of other opportunities out there after the market sell off. US scripts aren't moving, generics are stealing market share, are there more generics on the way? No meaningful EU sales in 2021.....and EU approval is already known. After the US sales execution, does anyone have confidence in the EU execution? I don't.
The other items are Hail Mary's. We're now a Hail Mary binary event driven stock. Fun!
I have been wrong on everything AMRN since 12/14/19, so I'm trying to work a little reverse psychology here. Shit, I even told my retired dad to remove his limit sell at $26 on 12/13/19. That's cruel!
I'll go on record saying a $200M secondary is coming at $7/share. 7% dilution to fund the EU roll-out and to continue paying our 900 highly productive salespeople.
The volume yesterday is close to what we did on EU approval. Today is just about keeping pace.
I think you're spot on there. I remember the 11/10/18 evening webcast.....the one where Thero opened with "25%.....that's huge". He reiterated several times that evening that the best companies were bought, not sold. 2.5 years later and a legal fiasco for the ages, I don't think they've changed their tune. Best guess is they're getting offers around $6B right now and would prefer to attempt to resolve the US market a bit more (hence holding on to 900 sales reps) before selling the company. The US and EU are it. China/ROW might get us another $2-$3/share, but it's really just the US and EU. Covid is a complete Hail Mary. Can't completely discount the change of control agreement....it's just not going to be in the 1st half of 2021, IMO.
Take the damn man at his word!!!
Exact Sciences LEARNED this lesson the hard way, 3 years before Amarin. They also wanted to maximize shareholder value by keeping the entire Cologuard pot to themselves. Fortunately, they have a rock star CEO that recognized this when they had a sales team of ~ 600 reps. EXAS's reps had poor aceess, had to fight through PAs and insurance loopholes.....all of the same issues. EXAS recognized this and partnered with Pfizer and the rest is history.
I'm not advocating for any type of partnership, but keeping a salesforce of 900 for a 1-drug company, in a jurisdiction where you lost your patent (you can't make that sh!t up) is suicidal.
That or maybe they're partnering up in the EU. This thing has been so mismanaged, I don't count anything out. Okay....last one....raising money at $7 to assist with EU launch? LoL (I think?)
Maybe they can allocate 1M hours from sales team to Twitter team. That shouldn’t impact our scripts at all since expectations are < 1 new script per month per salesperson.
Let’s absorb that utilization!!
40,000 hours per week. 2,100,000 hours over the past year focused 100% solely on sales of V - nothing else! Zero growth.
COGS of $131M and SG&A of $463M for a one-drug company with scripts that aren't moving. FAT!!!
RC - I think this is the key takeaway here given AMRN's CVD label represents 90% of it's market. Facts line up well.
Teva just got absolutely wrecked. Like as wrecked as AMRN did at appeals.
Damn. Great post. Thanks GG.
If you think the bar is set low, just wait until they GIA in Europe is a reality. Back to $4 after seeing US execution. Sell this biotch for $8B John!!
Other drugs in this space are growing YoY, despite the pandemic. Those drugs don't enjoy a 100% dedicated salesforce selling only 1 product.
Remember Yee laughing when Thero said he could grow sales faster than the generics could supply GV?
What a shitshow.
What a joke. 900 person dedicated salesforce selling only Vascepa - literally nothing else. 40,000 hours per week supplemented by a catchy National TV commercial. Nice ROI.
Hah. Normally I'd say that we'd all have thrown it at some other penny stock and lost all of our money, but in 2020 you could have thrown darts and returned 30%.
Sorry for the sloppy previous post, but that link is to an excellent write up by Septum Capital on HAAC for those wanting to start their DD.
The opportunity cost of owning Amarin is equally as frustrating as the execution (lack of).
Hopefully the nightmare is over soon!!
Agreed, but only if sold soon!
In all seriousness, what is the hedgie so bullish on? EU is already in the bag, so you're either terribly bullish on US legal situation, Covid or a BO? All long shots, IMO, so would be interesting to know.
Scripts suck so obviously not that, lol.
For sure some reclassification happening.
I'm also guessing the reps aren't real motivated right now. You work for a one-drug company that lost their patent in the only market that you sell - I mean, you can't even make it up. In the current WFH world with less doctor office visits, I'd imagine you can do very little and no one notices. Otherwise, what in god's name is happening during 45,000 hours per week? Are they being trained in how great the drug is but not out selling? By "out" I mean electronic communication when in-person is not available.
Sure, but even call it just 1 new script a day. So you have 9 hours to educate one medical professional to prescribe V to just 1 patient. Or....you have 45 hours a week to educate 1 medical professional to write V for 5 of his/her patients that fit the label. That would be 200k new scripts a year.
I'm just baffled.
900 reps selling only V, 40+ hours per week. That's 40,000 - 50,000 hours PER WEEK of V-only 100% dedicated sales activity. Just think about that.