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Pdude: thx for the thorough response. I agree that V will likely show to be an effective treatment. I still don’t understand zero interest from the Street in this area though...they have access to all of the same data and no one cares. There were 100 or so people on the Argentina webcast.....probably 90 retail AMRN shareholders, lol.
Also, unpopular opinion, but I’m not impressed at the speed that these studies were established and conducted. Don’t get me wrong, I don’t think Amarin separately would have done them quicker, but getting first results 15 months after the pandemic started isn’t exactly agility in my book. Again, they have one drug. Especially for an illness that lasts only a few weeks. We should have been hearing results last fall.
Thx for the replies on this. It didn’t seem like there was much interest in that initial Argentina “presentation”.....hopefully that changes with the KP read out.
Pdude: What’s your opinion on why Amarin didn’t run their own CV19 trial?
Momentum sure is a powerful thing, isn't it?
One could argue that the US was valued at $22 since we crashed to $4 after the DUche ruling. It's pure silliness though....EU should ultimately be valued about the same, but there was value built in to the US having momentum, 1/2 billion of sales, etc. As Yee said, should have been one of the strongest launches they've seen.
Let's get that US "Mo" back soon. 40,000 hours per week!!!
If I had to guess, Amarin's "ask" is probably closer to $12B. Only recently have they quantified the number of billions of each opportunity US, EU, ROW. For the US, let's just assume 1.5B, EU 2B and ROW 0.5B. That's 4 B-words, and is likely below what AMRN believes internally. At even a super conservative 3x multiple is 12 B-words.
The gap between 6B and 12B is establishing some semblance of execution.
With a half billy in the bank, no debt and a wonder drug....can they pull it off?
This was a noted highlight of 2020 from Amarin:
"Adapted to COVID-19 protocols with various tele-sales, tele-marketing and virtual education initiatives as well as training representatives to safely interact with healthcare professionals where possible"
LoL!! Adapted?!? Too funny.
This was from the YE 2020 conference call: "Also included in these anticipated expenses is an assumed sales force in the U.S. of approximately 750 to 800 professionals consisting primarily of sales representatives and their managers."
They didn't mention any US sale force figures yesterday.
Where are people getting the 600 from?
Also, would 600 make you feel better?
You guys want to hear a joke?
So there’s this company, and they have 800 salespeople and an amazing drug, but only one drug - not 2, not 4, just 1. The sales team spends 40,000 hours a week selling this one drug and hasn’t increased sales in a year.
Isn’t that a good one?
I mean Hikma to expand past the 10% or any other generic to enter the market and try to expand supply. You can't really half-ass enter the IPE market as a generic. Hikma and others are learning that now.
Would you expect Hikma or another generic to go all-in before then?
Another 40,000 hours in the books and no growth. WTF!!!
1 drug, 1,000 employees, but they weren't available for comment?
We have to be being Punk'd....
I've been pretty negative on AMRN lately. I'm somewhat positive after reading these replies. HealthNet really couldn't have a worse fact pattern here.
Another 40,000 hours in the books selling 1 drug!! That's a shitload of hours!!
"The information on this website is accurate only as of the date above. Amarin undertakes no obligation to update or revise this information as future events or circumstances arise."
Cmon, your expectations are all too high. They have no obligation to update. I mean, don't you guys get it? They only have 1,000 employees for a 1-drug company. How could they possible keep up on everything....
Why do you think the generics are still fighting here? They aren't stupid, they're extremely shrewd business people, even if unethical. They have super narrow margins, supply issues, a bunch of potential generic competition, etc....
MrMain always dropping truth-bombs!
Feels like a lifetime ago when Yee was spouting "Vascepa is set for one of the strongest drug launches in recent memory" when he was referring to 2020.....
The fact that inventory wasn't in the $550M - $600M makes a secondary more likely if sales are flat.
Pretty amazing to spend $500M in 12 months and have no growth (don't want to hear Covid excuse, I get that).....
On 2nd thought, I actually disagree. Apologies to Postes. It does appear that the $550M - $600M does not include inventory in this case when looking at Amarin’s 10-K. Flat sales put AMRN at ~$100M of cash burn in 2021.
I guess that’s why we’re a $5 stock.
Don’t be lazy. Google what’s in operating expenses.
Were we ever able to identify another 1 drug company (with no pipeline) that had ~ $1B of revs and decided to run GIA all the way out until patent expiry?
Here's my current investment thesis:
No sane person thinks that the EU will have anything less than $2.5B in peak sales. Completely forget the US, ROW, Covid, litigation, etc. At a measly 3.5X multiple, which is reasonable/low for an approved, highly effective cardio drug, that gets you $20/share.
We're at $5 now, we know there's demand for this space because AZN spent $1B+ trying to beat us at the game, so the whole "no one's interested" argument is garbage. Amarin's ask is still simply too high for potential buyers because they won't assign zero to those other items.
Thero was tired and the US launch is a mess. We've got the right guy at the helm to lead us for another year before BO. Let's see if we can add to that $20/share with some US litigation luck, Covid luck, or to a lesser extend China.
Going to be kind of boring until things really heat up tho.....
Little did we know that a BO premium was already baked in to the $5.70 share price.
Only up from here!! :)
When you're a 1 drug company that loses your patent (LoL) and has 800 salesmen with zero growth, you get canned.
Do any of the sales reps read this board? If so, what is happening during the 40,000 hours per week selling only 1 drug? The scripts aren't moving and 40,000 hours each week seems like an ample amount of time to expect more than zero new scripts per week.
Please enlighten us if you're so inclined.
You won't let us down. 40,000 hours is just too much human-power to not show impressive returns!!!
Another 40,000 hours last week. Show us the scripts, Raf!!!
It looks like one final buying opportunity here in a seemingly endless number of chances before we lift off.
13 months post widespread Covid exposure and Vascepa still not listed. Unforgivable.
Zero agility, creativity or sense of urgency from this management team. The sales obviously show that as well.
Yes! More patents! Those have been super helpful so far! ;)
Yep. And a Brady or Jordan partnership would be worth WAY more than 40 reps. I’d literally trade 400 for either of those names and triple down on commercial.
Good question. I remember when EXAS made the decision to hire a “celebrity” spokesperson to promote Cologuard. Oprah, Will Ferrell were names floated. The stock fell 8% when they announced that they chose Harry Connick Jr. lol.
Amarin would for sure screw this up as well, but could you even imagine the pub if Jordan or Brady?
DAR - think about this......what if your only job all year, 261 working days, 10 hours each day, was to sell Vascepa. Just a one man, 100% all year DAR-selling machine. You'd be a beast!
NOW.......multiple DAR spending ALL FING year times another 15 people spending an ENTIRE YEAR selling V.
That's how many hours Amarin's sales reps had just last week. That's how massive 40,000 hours is. Let that sink in.
Like....even if you're a super shitty salesperson, you're at least doing something to move the ball forward for maybe 20-30 hours per week, right? That's still 25,000 hours PER WEEK. TWENTY-FIVE THOUSAND HOURS!!!
I don't think people realize how big of a super force 800 sales people should be that are literally 100% dedicated to one drug. That's like unheard of. And scripts are decreasing, even week over week.
I've mentioned this before, but Exact Sciences is probably the closest comparator, but they only had 200 - 300 sales people to sell Cologuard, which btw is becoming standard of care.
Hikma's attorneys seemed to try to diminish the relevance of "disgruntled retail investors" as if being motivated by personal profits is a negative. As opposed to the much higher altruistic existence of corporations, which also exist only to generate profits.
Odd response, but it might work on Du.
No worries, it was only another 40,000 hours last week of 100% dedicated Vascepa sales force hours.
Wonder how Thero calculates ROI per salesperson.
Mrmain: what is the last one-drug company selling $1B per year currently (rounding up) + another $2-3B annually, that didn’t sell to BP?
I believe your fate lies in the answer to this question....
They'll pay taxes at 25%. Even though they're "Irish", 95% of their income is taxed in the US at ~ 25% (Fed + State). Ireland's tax rate is 12.5%, so they get a 12.5% foreign tax credit in Ireland for the US tax they've already paid so that they don't get double taxed in the US and Ireland.
The same concept works for most of the EU, directionally speaking. 30% is a good bogey for this analysis, but curious what year TTE used for the $2B peak and what he was referring to with the 1.4M annual scripts.
The deferred tax liability (net operating loss c/f's) are worth $126M USD. Not nothing, but not meaningful.
What were you expecting when the European Commission has never not approved a recommended drug?
Cheer up! TTE says we're worth $17.50 in the EU only. Some silly BP has to be willing to pay us $20 for our shares, even with the fractured US market. Change your face! :) :)
TTE - when are you assuming peak ($2B) is hit?
Also, I don't follow your 1.4M annual scripts comment. Did you mean 14M annual scripts?