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I think Europe is worth $15 - $20 at the present time (assuming AHA is what we think it is).
$50 - $60 PPS is valuing the US market at $35 - $40 per share at the current time, and that's not factoring anything for ROW.
Boy, I disagree, and think we can (and will) fly a lot further over the next 2 months before the street starts to bake in sales expectations if we GIA. I will not be selling the 11/12 week pop. Too much upside over the next 2 months with news on Europe partnership, ROW plans, further break-down of R-It results, B/O offers, media, etc.......
JL......
I think there are literally hundreds of folks on the board that don't think that and are eternally grateful for your contributions.
Thanks for the color on your lifestyle. I find this type of anecdotal evidence fascinating when layered on top of what I've learned and read on the subject. I can't help but ask the question when you see someone thriving past their 70s. I live in the Twin Cities and have met and heard Dan Buettner speak many times. If you haven't read his book "Blue Zones", shoot me a PM and I'd be happy to send a copy to you in Florida. It tracks pockets of the world with the highest concentration of centenarians. And by centenarians, it means those folks that are still active and involved in society.
Last question.....are you vegetarian or vegan?
JL.............
Over the years, I've taken a keen interest in the Blue Zones and how folks are living well into their hundreds while avoiding the diseases that plague much of American (and Western) society. You seem to be sharper than people half your age. If you don't mind, can I ask a few questions:
- Do you drink alcohol?
- What does your weekly exercise regimen look like?
- Are you vegan, vegetarian?
- Other than school the street on a daily, basis, what do you do to keep your mind sharp?
- How many grams of V do you take a day ;)
You da man......
Now that's some deep analysis......
Your holding makes much more sense to me now. You da man!
A few random thoughts (that's how I think):
1) The complaints of the price action, i.e. where PPS stands, are hilarious. We've endured 2 of the top 20 largest drops in the Dow in the past week and managed to move from the high teens to a close > $20.50 today. Use that as perspective.
2) I think that the sNDA is going to be more inclusive than most think (DMT2). Additional time (Q1 2019) is needed to properly submit for additional indications. I'd expect submission very early 2019, or in late December.
3) Any board members that are getting black-balled by their PCP for a Vascepa script need to fight harder or walk away from their docs. I honestly cannot believe that there's anyone on this board that owns shares and is just purchasing Amazon EPA. That shouldn't be acceptable and you should demand more for/of yourselves......
4) 20 calls are dirt cheap, IMO.......
5) It's been easier to get laid lately around my house.
That's all I've got......
Thanks for crunching the #s. That's a $100B company, long-term (GIA), in any of those scenarios you laid out.....
A reasonable price target TODAY.....
I'd start to respect any analyst that threw out a price target (pre-AHA) of $65. That'd be 16x 2019 revs of 1.25B with a 20% B/O premium. That would also imply that analysts aren't full of shit and know what the hell they're talking about.
Price goes up post 11/10..........
I agree, Raf. Same reason why "consistent", "wide" and "robust" were the descriptive words used by Craig Granowitz when asked what physicians will care about.....
Pfizer can bring those unrepatriated earnings back to the US now as they'll be paying tax on them over the next 8 years as part of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act. Don't get me wrong, they'll still have a lot of cash, but using the cash overseas is no longer a prerequisite......
There's less than a zero chance that there's an sNDA announced here in October. Just because you say things with confidence doesn't mean you're right.
You think JT and SK were withholding info on the 9/24 call regarding sNDA timing?
Not a chance......
IBB and NBI have gotten hammered the past two weeks, but AMRN has held strong. When the tide turns, up we shall go.
JL - I got the same call from TDA last week. The rep asked if I was comfortable with the amount of concentration (100%) in my account. I mentioned that I was more than comfortable and that he should look in to the company, but not to waste any time in doing so. He mentioned that based on the size of position within my account, he would actually take me seriously and do so. I hope he did over the weekend. LoL
Please also pass along my recommendation to read "Anticancer" as well. Almost the exact same scenario that was faced by the doc who wrote the book. Was able to achieve remarkable regression of the tumor through diet. Needs as many cards stacked in his/her corner as possible.....
I've seen someone mention Dr. Caldwell Esselstyn on this board. You should watch the documentary that he's a part of called "What The Health". It will be inspirational to you in your diet "adventure".
Also, if I may make a book recommendation titled, "Anticancer - A New Way of Life" which I read 5-6 years ago. It talks about the primary role that inflammation plays in the development of cancer. After becoming an investor in AMRN, it starts to take on new meaning as we haven't even scratched the surface beyond CVD.
It's all about inflammation, baby....AND.....
It's all about the benjamins, baby! :)
Fine thoughts on the management psyche, but you have to be kidding me with $50/share. I can't even call that conservative, that's just uninformed.
None. My point wasn't to compare to more mature profit making companies because that's not what we are today.
A few random thoughts that have come to mind recently before falling asleep.....
1) I wonder how seriously JT is considering a GIA + co-promote to blow this biatch to Andromeda even faster than is about to happen. I've got to think that Pfizer is really wishing that they hadn't entered into the co-promote with EXAS (just a month ago) at this point, now knowing the results of Reduce-It and with Lyrica coming off exclusivity next year. They've now committed the 1 or 2 spot in their bag to Cologuard for the next 3 years. Would have to be another BP IMO..........
2) These price targets and valuations are starting to blow my mind. I thought they'd have wised up a little more after 2 full weeks. I mean, I get it, people were caught with their pants down, but this is simple arithmetic at this point and it's getting comical. Let's say we do $1B of sales next year. Slap a reasonable 16X (I think that's low) and you've got $53/share. That's based on next year's revenues, which is about the most conservative way to possibly value this gorilla. That should be an easy starting point to agree on, but no one even coming close.
3) JL - what percent have you parted with? Also, I may be joining you in Chicago. Trying to talk the pregnant wife + 2.5 year old into an 8 hour car trip isn't easy ;)-
There's zero chance millennials are that smart......... ;)
Right on, JL. A lot of people are going to be pleasantly surprised about valuation if they can just relax, hang on and enjoy the almost daily fireworks.
LoL - are you guys seriously talking $17B - $20B of annual revenue with a PPS around $150? Try again x 3................
Your posts and analysis are much appreciated and very valuable to non-amateurs. By the way, those are also the clowns giving you grief. Please keep up your valuable contributions. TIA. -Mike
I've posted on the EXAS yahoo board for many years, but I'm the Mike who's a CPA. We've had some solid contributors on that board. Much different than the AMRN Yahoo board.
Glad to see that we may get some additional data here in October. Time is of the essence and this data needs to get out ASAP.
Random thought - I've probably read about 100+ docs commenting on R-It results over the past week. Not one has had any push back, assuming underlying data is solid (which we know it will be). I can't stress enough how huge this is after following EXAS for many years. Cologuard is one of the best biotech stories developing, BUT, they are having massive issues with doctor adoption and push back. Not the issue here and that can't be over-stressed.
I'm new here, but I've got to say, I'm surprised by some of the long timers "gasping" by a suggested SP in the hundreds. Don't be afraid to think big just because you've had to endure so many sh!tty years of waiting for R-It results. Maybe it's still sinking in, but you guys won here, and won big time. Like lottery-type big time if you're holding tens of thousands of shares. Not many others had the kahones/education to do it, so it's time to collect your reward and it's going to be worth a hell of a lot more than $50/$75 per share. Don't discount what you have here.
16x next year's revs of $1B gets you to $54/share. We should be there soon. JT's mentioned 10s of millions of people on V. Let's just assume 5M x $2,400 x .5 x 20 / 300M. That's $400/sh. These numbers are big, but they're not far fetched.
IMO, I think JT and the Sunshine Band would consider offers in the $75B range. It'd be giving away the company, but they'd be remiss not to.
Not really sure what the point of this post is, but coming from EXAS, which has been one of the best Wall St. stories of the past 3 years.....I can say that what we have here is a Wall St. story for the ages. Make sure you're a part of it and reap what you deserve.
What a gift this SP is to people who missed the boat. Assuming ~ $1B of revs in 2019 and a 16X rev multiple (which I think is conservative given what we're dealing with), the SP could easily support $30 right now. That and all of the upcoming catalysts which we have been able to handicap and it's hard not to add here.
I called TD this morning. I have 100% AMRN in my margin account right now and they have AMRN listed as 100% margin requirement if concentration is > 70%. However, the rep that I spoke to, told me that it's at 80% maintenance right now. So a little wiggle room, but not much. Hard to not add a K more shares around $15.5 levels IMO.
Well, you certainly did well for yourself on EXAS, chas, but this is the big life-changing one. Reminds me of when EXAS made its run after USPSTF positive reversal and we all knew what was coming. We went from $6 to the low 20s in no time and knew it was still cheap, but needed to stop and catch our breath. AMRN is EXAS on steroids. No stubborn GIs to get in the way and we don't need to spend $100M/year on marketing to make it a patient driven demand. Don't get me wrong, there will certainly be some resistance along the way, but 25% still gives me the chills and cannot be successfully disputed. For the rest of my life, I will never forget waking up at 3:42am on 9/24 at the Great Wolf Lodge in Wisconsin Dells (I have a toddler ;) and seeing 25%. Just incredible stuff happening here.....
BaaBaa - yep, I don't think they can avoid it even if they want to, BUT, I truly don't think there will be as much of an adoption fight with V as there is for Cologuard over at EXAS. There is NO other drug that can add a 25% reduction to a CVE - there's just not an argument for a doc to not prescribe. It's incredible and I actually get chills thinking about what's happening here. Think about this, for Wall St. darling EXAS to get to ~ $6B of revenue, they have capture 40% of the total colon cancer screening market. Do you know how hard that is?!? It's going to take them damn near a decade to get close to that and they had to go out and get help from Pfizer to do so. Now.....for AMRN to get to ~ $6B of revenue, they only need a little over 4% of the statin market. Now that is mind boggling. Also, stating the obvious, it's a drug you're likely on for life. All of the boxes are checked on the launchpad.
Hi all, this is my first post here. I'm a long time investor of EXAS (one of the Mike's from the Yahoo board) and other bios. I've made off very well in EXAS over the past 4 years with over 1,600% gains. Am I boasting? Maybe......but even more so I'm trying to make the point that the story here is absolutely enthralling and, I believe, even better than EXAS, which has been one of Wall Street's darlings over the past 3 years. While I believe that EXAS's Cologuard is a unicorn product as well, they have had the challenge of trying to overcome colonoscopy, which is the golden ticket for all of the gastros out there to make a living. Amarin doesn't quite have a fight like this. They have data that can't be denied, there is no other product (at this point) that can even come close to comparing to Vascepa and any doc or cardiologist that doesn't prescribe V to a needing patient is seriously risking malpractice. Thank about that! Although I believe most of Wall St. is still trying to figure out how to properly value AMRN, think about some of these mind boggling #s. Approximately 50M Americans are currently on statins. Let's assume that AMRN captures only 4% of this population (they should be able to do considerably better), that's 2M people taking V at $2,500/year, or $5B in revenue. Assuming a modest 30% bottom line gives you $1.5B net income. Hit that against a 20x multiple and you get a $30B market cap, or $100/share. Then, you need to think about how modest the 2M number of V users is. Think about the price of V likely increasing modestly. Think about the European market (likely a partnership for dist). Think about Canada (not huge, but maybe another few hundred thousand V users). Think about the baby boomers and demographics of Americans entering "old age". Think about the rampant rise in type 2 diabetes. I've seen a few people post about how it's difficult to come up with a SP less than $30. I agree, but think it's difficult to come up with an sp less than $100. GLTA, this is inning 2 of a very fun ride. The chips will take time to fall in place, but they will. Buckle up for the next 12 - 18 months.