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I've noticed that certain bottles have crystal clear capsules - I call those liquid gold. Other capsules have more of a matte finish - not quite as impressive looking, but likely just the result of diversified suppliers.
That's outstanding! Thanks for sharing.
Are you on a HDHP? Sounds like it as you're getting no help from insurance and coverage with Kaiser should be better.
Louise Chen worked for Reddy's as a biz development Sr. Manager many years ago. Interesting backdrop for the ongoing ANDA litigation and call today.
Tellison - thx for the reply! I don't have PMs, but appreciate it, sir!
Thanks jfm!
ARTHRITIS & VASCEPA
I'm sure this has been covered here at some point, but has anyone had success treating their arthritis with Vascepa? I'd assume that it's helpful, due to the anti-inflam effects, but was curious on any personal anecdotes that people are willing to share.
I have a family member, in their late 30s, with RA and it would seem a no brainer to get them on V.
Thanks in advance for sharing!
Have heard the same thing from several healthcare connected folks in my family. It’s possibly a slightly more severe strain of the flu and the US has more easily controlled the spread, despite not even knowing what is was.
I think highest fears hit next week and then hopefully subside when the US death number is relatively low over the remainder of Feb.
Good post, TTE - thanks.
I talked to one of our favorite analysts and his traders tracked AMRN over the XBI and SPX. Literally overlapped, but with higher volatility, which we all know. In other words, the $14.50 is overbaked for the Coronavirus factor. Will likely get worse this coming week, but the current PPS reflects much more than the patent risk.
Will be interesting to see where we land end of March. Hope we're around 20 for the Masters!
Thanks Hamoa - also an outstanding summary of the case!
Awesome summary - thanks for sharing!
Thanks gg. Yee is top notch.
TTE - would it be unprecedented to use cash raised at $17.50 to conduct a buyback of shares at $13? I am assuming yes, but am just a simple CPA, like JT.
I concur - good post. A lot of fear driven by leverage & options, IMO. Fundamentals here are possibly the best in bio.
Yesterday, I mentioned that Thero and co have threaded the needle through an active war zone. They have, and that's an incredible feat.
I do agree, however, that it wouldn't hurt to mention that the company is in a great position to make the best strategic decision to add value for shareholders because they have been approached by big pharma and will make the right decision as to whether an acquisition, partnership or GIA will ultimately add the most value. But for right now, they are in execution mode and things are a hummin'. Something generic like that wouldn't kill an NDA, but would give confidence to investors that there's a floor of say $10B - $12B. Obviously, they wouldn't disclose the amount, but investors could at least fill in the blanks there.
Are you human? How are you right about everything?
I have two sons and hope they both end up 1/2 as smart as you.
Don't underestimate what fear (whether real or media perceived) can do to markets and a vulnerable dog like Amarin. Remember, we're in the middle of litigation that determines the company's future and the sharks know it. The Covid fears just make the attack easier. It's going to get uglier.
Look...... Thero has ~ 10M shares on the line, Kennedy 1M +.....that's a half a Bil and $50M + if a BO at $50. Do you think they're in the mood for reckless? They've threaded the needle through a war zone, I'll go ahead and trust their judgement on whatever decision was made. But, rest assure, there's no chance it was reckless.
Yes, but just noise. It's going to be a brutal 3 weeks upcoming. Wouldn't be shocked to see high single digits if the Coronavirus spreads to all states and people are advised to avoid all nonessential travel, etc.
If anyone is still on margin....hunker down.....
Yep, Thero sold 39%, as in the past, to cover taxes. As you said, neutral event and still holds the rights to ~ 10M shares.
Yes, but the fun isn't even close to over. Wait until there starts to be a few 'breakout clusters' within the US. We are almost assured to make a new 52 week low over the coming month.
Damn that guy's fast!
(-Fast & the Furious)
Were you on margin or in to options?
Holy crap, man. Do a little research before reacting. Amazing that some of you stumbled in to this investment.
I propose that we completely disband this board and everyone just follows TerraPharma.
Amazing qtr. Cash flow positive excluding FAS123R expenses!
"Sole book running manager" is why they do this deal. And, they obviously have faith in the LT outlook of EXAS.
I was an EXAS uber bull from 2015 - 2019, but sold completely out of my position last year after the run-up. Cologuard growth appears to be slowing/fading much more quickly than originally forecasted. EXAS is burning thru $400M/year in sales and marketing, but the CG growth just isn't keeping up and the pipeline has been slow to develop. They needed this raise after the Genomic Health acquisition.
Now....to bring it back to AMRN. EXAS was a Wall St. darling from 2017 - 2019, growing revs 80% per year and enjoying rich valuations of ~ 16 CY revs. Can anyone else think of a company that's sitting on the launch pad, growing revs 70% - 90% per year and have only penetrated a tiny portion of their addressable market? We also don't have any competition (unlike colonoscopy for CG) and have WAY less (none) insurance/CMS reimbursement issues to be concerned with and Vascepa will be an international blockbuster (again, unlike CG).
PS - we currently sit at 8x CY revs.....
2020 is the year of AMRN!
Oh, don't be so simple. Analyst industry norm might be 40 - 50% of US given the stage Amarin is at in EU approval process.
Thanks Chris. Here's how goofy Oppy has gotten these days. Leland is now projecting that Vascepa sales will grow annually at only 17% from 2021 - 2025, but is at the same time admitting that Vascepa sales will grow by 65% in 2020. That's hilarious. 2020 also has the headwinds of minimal DTC and a sales staff that is still brand new.
That's some goofy ass shit. Seriously. And nothing for Europe. LoL. Rest easy, folks.
Is getting the script the issue for you? That's not really a great excuse IMO, if it is. I've convinced both of my PCPs (over the past year) to write one very easily and I don't fit the R-It criteria either. Dozens of others here have done so as well.
If it's the cost, you're comparing $60 for DS to ~ $180 for Vascepa ($330 - 150 coupon). Is the $120 difference per month too much for you to pay to get V? If so, fair enough.
Yes, I did let Elisabeth know. It's why the DTC is so important.
Why hasn't that launched yet, btw? 6 months is so strange..... ;)
Learning Curve.....
I just called CVS Caremark, my prescription provider for BCBS IL. I asked if there was a discount available for Vascepa if done thru mail order, since I am currently paying $180 per month ($330 - 150).
Get this....the CVS rep says, good news sir! I can get you generic Vascepa for $33 for a 90 day supply. Knowing this is BS, I ask how he came to the conclusion that it was generic Vascepa. He says "sir, it's the same Omega 3 mixture and much cheaper". I tried to educate him over the next few minutes, but he had a hard time understanding based on what he was seeing on his end.
Bottom line.....a lot of those new Lovaza prescriptions are a result of Vascepa, Reduce-It and the steep learning curve that's ahead....
$50 - $60. TTE has had this calculation nailed for 15 months.
Cologuard's DTC has actually resulted in very disappointing growth for the company, despite the 'ad blitz' and massive spending. It's hard to change established medical practice. Will be interesting to see how Vascepa fares....
Another fun week as an Amarin shareholder! Our time will come, but Jesus, this is boring....
Thanks Tuca. With a modest 1.5% weekly growth, we'll finish around $780M in revs and a $1.1B run rate at the end of 2020. There's considerable upside to those #s as well.
BP's mouth is watering.....
Agreed, my friend. As brilliant as he was with the science, anyone who's following him for business/trading advice should think twice or three or four times. Seriously........
Odd response indeed. I enjoyed your post. As usual, it was spot on. Next time you can just say "pay off MNBioMike's 2013 Mazda 6 with AMRN profits"...you have my permission.
Just paid $180 for 30 days worth about an hour ago. I'm on a high deductible HSA plan....ooops, after the coupon changes......
Not ideal, but I'd rather pay $180 for the real deal than $30 for knock-off EPA on Amazon.
AMRN: Hey Gwen, look at this cool role we have. You'd be a perfect fit.
GF: Oh, wow, this is cool. It's my dream job! I'm close to my long-time friends, family, etc. So cool - you guys rock and have a life saving drug.
AMRN: Okay, sweet, we'll pay you well, but aren't just going to hand over an s-load of options. Cool?
GF: Cool.
AMRN: (present day): Hey Gwen, we need you to lay low-key, we've got some things happening.
GF: Like what?
AMRN: We can't tell you.
GF: Damn, I can connect the dots. I'm outta here. That's DISRESPECTFUL!!!!! You told me this was a long term gig!
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PS - AMRN press released her hire....