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Next week would be on the early side for Q1 10-Q. The last two years the dates have been 5/10 and 5/17.
My guess is closer to the later date because nwbo has slipped below the cutoff for SEC "large accelerated filer" status based on quarter end share price. That gives them a bit more time to file.
Shareholders tend to ask questions trying to pin down facts. Management often evades such questions because they are not allowed to answer, think it is premature to answer, or simply choose not to answer.
Analysts have the experience to know what management can/will answer. They often have a relationship they do not want to jeopardize by putting someone on the spot. Analysts will ask something like "can you add some color" on a particular topic.
Whistleblower awards are granted for reporting wrongdoing to law enforcement or regulators (Ex: SEC), not for testimony in a civil trial.
If you bought in 2014, that certainly wasn't at $0.16 to $0.18. The lowest closing price for any day in 2014 was $4.05
No, I meant more like ignoring page 19 from the 5/10/22 NYAS presentation.
That's the one that showed dcvax having an advantage relative to the other trials in KPS Score, resection, etc.
Or ignoring (or not understanding) the hazard ratio page in the same presentation.
So just ignore the data?
Good plan.
That's a notable change from your Budzar hypothesis. I'll assume that changing the explanation is your way of admitting the PR data proved your initial guess wrong.
Lawsuits can have a chilling effect, but the timing does not really match the two reductions in PR flow. NASDAQ problems and eventual downlisting matches a tad better. However, both the lawsuit and NASDAQ notions could be coincidence rather than causality.
Is nwbo really communicating less?
Here's a simple metric, the number of PRs per year.
2012 20
2013 32
2014 38
2015 26
2016 16
2017 14
2018 9
2019 10
2020 10
2021 5
2022 7
2023 to date 2
Communication via PR is clearly less frequent than in the past. Some of that may be attributed to changes to what nwbo thinks is worthy of a PR.
As to Senti's claim that reduced communication is a direct reaction to the 2014 Budzar incident. This data does not support that thesis. The first drop is not until 2016, then a further drop from 2018 on.
Your link says that Merck might be able to extend Keytruda patent life by shifting to subcutaneous injection.
Your link does not mention nwbo, dcvax, or combo trials in regard to Merck extending patent life.
Let's go to the 10-K notes to the financial statements.
"Research and development costs are charged to operations as incurred and consist primarily of clinical trial related costs (including costs for collection, validation and analysis of trial results), related party manufacturing costs, consulting costs, contract research and development costs, clinical site costs and compensation costs."
Seems to me that if R&D included costs for Compassionate Use that would be noted.
Compassionate use is free to patients, but still costs money to provide. Those expenses would show up in financial statements. So that explanation also fails.
No. If there had been hundreds of Specials patients, that would have shown up in the financial statements.
If nwbo was getting paid its cost, it would show up in revenues.
Even if nwbo gave away its products, it would show up in expenses.
Since those things did not happen, you are clearly wrong about hundreds of Specials patients.
Thank you for posting this.
That would be like someone on the nwbo board predicting prices north of $20, claiming the stock is de-risked, saying approvals were guaranteed before any submissions to regulators, etc.
And the SEC levied a heavy fine for such behavior.
Interesting.
Simple explanation - Shorting is not all speculative.
Hedged shorting to lock in a profit by holders of warrants, options, "C" Preferred is perfectly reasonable.
There is more than one way to increase Shares Outstanding. The increase could be from warrant exercise, option exercise, conversion of "C" Preferred. nwbo has also paid off debt with shares on a number of occasions.
No way to know for sure until the next 10-Q due by mid-May.
There were 141m warrants outstanding as of year end. That's in the 10-K section on "Potentially Dilutive" securities.
https://www.sec.gov/ix?doc=/Archives/edgar/data/1072379/000141057823000185/nwbo-20221231x10k.htm
From the most recent proxy, we know that Linda has 57m of those warrants, mostly via Cognate.
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1072379/000110465922124360/tm2231325-2_def14a.htm
It is reasonable to assume that Streeterville Capital owns another 37.7m of the warrants. They provided the most recent financing shown in 8-K, and the last paragraph of the 10-K indicates that 37.7m warrants were extended pending financing.
https://www.sec.gov/ix?doc=/Archives/edgar/data/1072379/000110465923030141/tm238973_8k.htm
nwbo used to document the relationship with Cognate. Here's an example referenced in a past 10-K
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1072379/000114420412037417/v315727_ex10-19.htm
That document does not include pricing per batch. I think the best you could do is get the payments to Cognate (10-K, related party transactions), and estimate the number of doses for that year.
No idea why the Advent relationship has less disclosure than Cognate in the past.
Each moderator can sticky 1 post at a time. As Senti stated well, that is the entirely at each moderator's discretion. The only restriction is that the post be less than 48 hours old. Most of the time I sticky whoever makes the first post of a new SEC filing, so changing at least once per quarter. Other mods leave stickies indefiinitely, which is their right. Order is based on recency.
There is no process to sticky a link independent of a post.
If someone wanted to change their sticky to suit your preference, it likely would have already happened. Suggest you tilt at a different windmill.
SOC is the placebo arm for the trial, or it was until nwbo decided to ignore it.
Could defendants claim that it was not nwbo itself harmed, but rather folks trading nwbo stock?
The point is that nwbo would not only have to prove spoofing, but also that the purpose was long term price suppression. The first may be possible, the second more challenging.
The goal of spoofing is trading profit, The ideal conditions would be volatility, active trading, and wide spreads. That is quite different from low dollar volume at depressed prices.
If you're just venting frustration, then your plan is fine.
If you actually want to try for real change, then write it up as a Shareholder Proposal for the next Annual Meeting. It would require digging into the Certificate of Incorporation, and subsequent modifications, to find the requirements for Shareholder Proposals. There are links in the 10-K.
https://www.sec.gov/ix?doc=/Archives/edgar/data/1072379/000141057823000185/nwbo-20221231x10k.htm
I think USPS Registered with Return Receipt would be more official than Fedex.
Bullshit! Cognate was not putting money into nwbo. That would be investing.
Cognate took shares as payment when Linda (Cognate) outnegotiated Linda (nwbo) for outlandish rates, and Linda (nwbo) didn't feel like paying cash.
That's as misleading as the "skin in the game" argument when Linda's shares and options were given to her rather than purchased.
I find your post uncompelling. My 2023 revenue guess remains $1.4 million.
1.7m, 1.0m, 1.3m have been the revenue numbers for the last 3 years, so you are quite the optimist, Put me down for $1.4 million.
SEC filings say you're wrong about dilution.
Your claim: "Linda P has not diluted the company in last year and a half"
12/31/22 Fully Diluted Share count = 1,567 million comprised of:
Shares Outstanding: 1,068
"C" Preferred: 1.4, which is convertible to 21m
Potentially dilutive: 678
06/30/21 Fully Diluted Share count = 1170 million comprised of:
Shares Out: 857
Potentially Dilutive: 313
That's a 34% increase in Fuilly Diluted share count over 18 months.
Dilution is irrelevant because the deal is so small.
If they sold common (or C Preferred equivalent), it would have been less than 20 million shares. Less than 2% dilution is pretty much meaningless.
Next news is likely to be financing.
The last section of the 10-K is "Subsequent Events", which is usually new information. The last paragraph of the whole filing is interesting.
During February 2023, the Company extended approximate 37.7 million warrants with maturity dates through March 15, 2023 in order to finalize ongoing financing transactions. The holders of these 37.7 million warrants had cash deposit of approximately $2.6 million in December 2022, which was recognized as a cash advance as of December 31, 2022 on the Company’s consolidated balance sheet.
Total nonsense. It is absolutely absurd to claim Cognate funded nwbo.
Look at the Balance Sheet in the most recent 10-Q. https://www.sec.gov/ix?doc=/Archives/edgar/data/1072379/000141057822003073/nwbo-20220930x10q.htm
The Accumulated Deficit is $1,268,824,000, a reasonable rough guess at what it has cost to fund nwbo thus far.
Did a significant fraction of that come from Cognate? No, it did not.
The only "funding" from Cognate was occasionally taking nwbo stock in lieu of cash, and it only did that because Linda (Cognate) was negotiating with Linda (nwbo) for usurious rates. Of course that all changed once Linda no longer controlled Cognate as a related party.
ASCO 2023 is critical for nwbo.
Booth size will be 10 square centimeters larger than last year. Definitely a sign of FDA approval!
The nwbo booth will be near the restrooms instead of the snack bar. Linda Powers had the magical insight that while many people snack, everyone urinates. Major visibility increase!
Tote backs, keychains, and USB drives! FDA may pre-approve stuff nwbo hasn't even dreamed up yet!
What was posted earlier about stock lending and voting rights was mostly bad guesses. This link from Fidelity sums it up nicely:
VOTING RIGHTS
When you loan your shares, you relinquish voting rights. However, if you want to vote your shares, you can recall your loan in advance of the record date.
Source: https://www.fidelity.com/trading/fully-paid-lending
No. Boynton is giving away 18m options he already owns. See the footnote.
Explanation of Responses:
1. GIFTS FROM DR. BOYNTON FOR ESTATE PLANNING PURPOSES.
Has dcvax been tested on rGBM in any situation other than the P3 trial? Thought it was just the crossover patients. And didn't those crossover patients all receive SOC including chemo?
Are you aware that you can search on the SEC website by person as well as by security? Here's a link for nwbo CEO Linda Powers.
https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/own-disp?CIK=0001289624&action=getowner
You'll find no purchases in the last decade. The 2012 transactions are before my time.
It is possible to get a straight factual answer, but it depends on who you ask.
Fully diluted share count for nwbo was 1.523 billion shares as of the last 10-Q
Shares out: 1,051m
"C" preferred: 855k shares * 25 = 21m
Options: 304m
Warrants: 145m
For a shortcut, search the latest filing for a table whose summary line is labeled "Potentially Dilutive Securities". Add that total to shares outstanding for a quick and decent ballpark number.
Best of luck with that.
If the over/under for when the resolution fails was 3 days, I'd still bet under.
You are 100% correct there is a conflict of interest with LP controlling both nwbo and Advent, just as there was with nwbo and Cognate. No amount of rationalization can change that fact.
I don't expect a merger of nwbo and Advent. Since the Toucan partnership that owns Advent has a limited life, any deal would need to be structured as nwbo buying Advent. That structure doesn't makes sense because unless nwbo goes it alone, and realistically nwbo lacks the expertise and funds to go it alone.
All the talk about manufacturing is just distraction. nwbo needs to submit dcvax for approval.
My post clearly cited the 2017 10-K as its source.
Your post clarified nothing, was wrong about some of the details, and provided no source for anything.
Do you ever bother to read the thread to which you respond? The thread had nothing to do with when Cognate (owned by management after buyout) sold itself to CRL.
You are completely wrong that Toucan owned any of Cognate at the time of its sale to CRL. The nwbo PR at the time of the management buyout states: "Following this transaction, neither Linda Powers nor any Toucan Capital related entities have any ownership interest in Cognate or any role on Cognate's Board. "
It was about when Toucan sold Cognate to management in 2017. The 2017 nwbo 10-K directly states that "Cognate BioServices is owned by Toucan Capital Fund III, L.P.,"
We currently rely upon Cognate BioServices, Inc., or Cognate, to produce all of our DCVax product candidates in the U.S., and to supervise the production of our DCVax product candidates outside the U.S. Cognate BioServices is owned by Toucan Capital Fund III, L.P., one of our stockholders who is an affiliate. We have an agreement in place with Cognate BioServices pursuant to which Cognate BioServices has agreed to provide manufacturing and other services for the clinical trials and initial potential commercialization, in connection with our Phase III clinical trial of DCVax-L in brain cancer, and other programs. The agreement requires us to make certain minimum monthly payments to Cognate BioServices in order to have dedicated manufacturing capacity available for our products, irrespective of whether we actually order any DCVax products. The agreement also specifies the amounts we must pay for Cognate BioServices’ manufacturing of DCVax products for patients.
Source: nwbo 10-K for 2017
Cognate was owned by one of the Toucan Limited Partnerships. Those partnerships are not designed for unlimited duration, but rather to wind down after a number of years. Cognate was sold because it was a necessary step for timely liquidation of the Toucan investment.