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I lightened my holdings here for same reason Fast. It is odd that it cannot gain traction being run profitably as it is. However being FL, they are up against tough well funded competition. They were 2nd place in market in smokeable flower last summer/fall, but that has been eaten into by Surterra, Cura and others. I'm a little worried how they differentiate, and take market share back, grow from here out. Feels like a good takeover candidate that is financially in good shape, but needs help.
So Ranger Based on your note below, Trulieve has earnings of $170 million (110 m shares and 1.54 / share.) Do you mean projected earnings for 2020? I don’t think we have those yet.
“As far as that metric goes, Trulieve has no competition. They are earning $1.54/ share.”
I saw talk of that last year when Safe was developing. But I’m not sure. I think DEA rescheduling from 5 to 3 for MJ is necessary as well.
Ranger - no. around 70million of the Trulieve shares are locked up and do not trade yet. So right now the SP is based on 35-40million float available to trade. May 25 11m will be unlocked and July 25 55 million more will be unlocked. You can read the press releases about this. The cost basis average is way under $1. When the last unlock happened in August 2019 with way fewer shares it drive SP down 25% for two months.
RangerPete - That is my point - the per share basis. Trulieve making 1.54 per share with 10 times fewer shares. So if shares were equalized the comparison 15.4 cents per share to 3 cents per share? Know I am a big Truliever and I am not saying I am right. Just trying to be logical.
Thought that Liberty Health (currently $.30ish) and Trulieve ($9-10ish) are valued similarly as FL only, profitable weed cos? Rationale with rough math below...
TRU average store sells just under 400 smokeable ounces/store/week; and Liberty just under 90 oz/store/week. (Let's say Tru 4x better) Plus right now Trul has float under 40 mil shares and LHSIF has over 300mil. (let's say 9x) So roughly 36ish times .30= 10.50ish... (Give or take some on each number just for the quick figuring...)
So let's see when Trulieve unlocks 10 mil shares late may and 50mil+ late July and float by Aug will be 100mil. Wolf and others are saying that could drive Trul down to $4 which would be more equivalent to LHS. $.30 x 4 (to account for 4x sales) x 3 (to account for 300mil LHS times larger float). $3.60ish... Could happen on this crappy OTC exchange?
All this could be countered by two more excellent quarters of growth (q1 and q2 reporting right before the unlocks), changes in unlock date, amount? (as they have done 2 times before), safe act, etc...
Possible LHS and Trul are valued similarly as profitable FL-only weed?
TRU average store sells just under 400 smokeable ounces/store/week; and Liberty just under 90 oz/store/week. (lets say 4x) Plus right now Trul has float under 40 mil shares and we have over 300mil. (lets say 9x) so roughly 36ish times .30= 10.50ish... (Give or take some)
So lets see when Trulieve unlocks 10 mil shares late may and 50mil+ late july and float by Aug will be 100mil. Some are saying that could drive Trul down to $4 which would be more equivalent to LHS. .30 x 4 (to account for 4x sales) x 3 (to account for 300mil LHS times larger float). $3.60ish... Could happen on this crappy OTC exchange.
Plus more intangible - Trul has a strong and active brand, publicly active and trusted management and no issues with production. That helps and will help even more when Safe act allows listing on real exchanges.
Why/how do you think IIPR agreements become insolvent?
Re last unlock, I went back and dug up post #5062 from Snapback on Aug 20. SammyJ_19 on twitter had a nice deep dive on how cheap the basis of the shares issued to insiders in TCNNF. See below. I also tried to find these docs in SEDAR and could not find the forms he posted. Anyone know where these insider shareholding listings are?
Link - but scroll down a few replies past his CXXI posts and you will see the Trul thread
B8) TRUL's Aug. 13th fins show only ~184k shares since unlock date potentially being converted. But on Aug. 12th, three insiders listed on SEDI ceased to be so, meaning they can now sell shares without reporting. There are 11 people/cos. listed on SEDI who are no longer insiders. pic.twitter.com/PLIAULMi8z
— Sammy J (@sammyj_19) August 20, 2019
I will have to go dig up what the values are of the unlocked shares - there was a good deep dive last summer about this (in Aug some had cost basis of $.05 and you can see how attractive selling at $8 would be.)
If the Aug 19 unlock is an example, it was two months of bottoming from mid-10s to high 7s and then back to 10 in two months. Even with Trul in a much stronger position now 8 months later, I can see a similar scenario of bouncing to low 7s due to covid. And if shorts add a scare tactic of the trial maybe 6s for a short time? The unlock is timed in May with Q1 earnings, and in July with Q2 results announced which should help.
All things considered I can see it bouncing between 6-9 until October (and having a forward PE of <1 by then?), but all that growth and acquiring by long term investors will end this year on an amazing note.
Last year's annual report was July 1st it seems. Do Canadian companies have 120 days to file annual report? If so I guess we won't get it until around then again, right? (Feb 28 year end, plus four months)
https://www.libertyhealthsciences.com/investors/financials/
Dawson - This was a response to the thread comparing Tru and Fluent and relative values. If you follow the OMMU weekly like many of us do you can see Tru competitors and how they are positioned relative to Trulieve (Curalead, Surterra, Liberty, Fluent etc). I could have mentioned that I suppose but you can also click back through the thread to understand. I’ve been on this board a long time, invest a lot in Trulieve and follow it closely. I’m not posting random articles here.
Madd - Cansortium (Fluent) has serious cash troubles. Accd to Bloomberg: MJ Biz daily looked at the companies’ operating cash flow, cash on hand, unused credit facilities and new debt or equity and subtracted capital expenditures and debt due in 2020 to reach the conclusions, which were detailed in a presentation last week. Acreage 0 months, Emerald 1 month, Cansortium 3 mo, Columbia, Flowr, Vireo, MedMen, Ianthus all also under 10 months. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-04-12/cash-dwindles-extinction-level-event-looms-cannabis-weekly
Apr 7 is what my ETrade says as well for earnings, but did Apha send a release confirming this?
Key notes in discussion-
1) Strategy is to have costs undercut illegal market - and VFF (PSF) is the best (only?) canadian producer that can do this? Very impressive strategy that is working.
2) Very high demand in all provinces in Q1 - noted that their sales to their best customer in Ontario was good and increased in January; doubled in February; and Doubled again in March.
I'm buying in 2s and 3s straight through Q1 results in 6 weeks which - I think- will set a new standard of canadian cannabis.
GLTA
Mgmnt comments were very positive - they are extremely conservative, saw Q1 growing significantly to new provinces; veggie business "spiking demand" in March.
- wholesale business restarted and growing Q1
- positioning for international expansion
- 2 of top 4 retail products now in Ontario
- Alberta started first week of Q1 and Alberta sales are double per capita compared to other provinces.
On to analyst questions now.
Q1 which ends today is going to be amazing with gross margins of 76% and growing.
Confusing headlines showing losses and missing estimates will drive this down today. But the reason people are investing here is cannabis - profitable and growing and doing well enough to cover for veggies and cbd drag. I hope management addresses what to do about veggies and not let them take the shine off cannabis profit. Looking forward to the call.
It looks like they were deemed essential like US medical cannabis: https://mjbizdaily.com/week-in-review-recreational-marijuana-sales-tumble-cannabis-stores-open-during-pandemic-harvest-verano-deal-dead-more/
If I understand the growth of cannabis sales and earnings right for VFF in 2020 you could say they have a forward PE (cannabis only) of ...$3? Or $2?
This has a couple of answers re wholesale and 4q pivot to resale which seemed to be a great move. I like management here a lot compared to nearly every other Canadian money loser.
“Even amidst the continuing challenging macro environment, partially due to slower than expected retail store openings, Pure Sunfarms reported positive net income and positive EBITDA in the fourth quarter – its fifth consecutive quarter of positive EBITDA. Fourth quarter sales reflect Pure Sunfarms' transition from its focus entirely on the wholesale market to its focus on the branded retail market. As expected, during the fourth quarter Emerald did not take any of its 40% commitment under its supply agreement with Pure Sunfarms, which could not readily be redirected given the inactive wholesale market. In addition, one of the three large initial branded retail product shipments to provincial boards occurred before the fourth quarter, with one of the other three occurring after the fourth quarter."
Personally I think it’s great. 32 c per share on cannabis, and increasing margins with leading brand in Ontario and lowest cost by far. Overcoming emerald BS, hemp 2019 dumpster fire, challenge with wholesale timing and some other issues. I think market may see that this main cannabis engine is going to make the other two areas small tomatoes through 2020.
So no filing tonight but a release tonight and a call in AM? http://villagefarms.mediaroom.com/2020-03-30-Village-Farms-Provides-Update-on-Annual-Filings-Company-to-Report-its-Financial-Results-Via-News-Release-Today-Monday-March-30-2020
I’ll guess 46mil and .06 earnings.
Great numbers and great close to quarter. I am looking forward to Q4 and FY19 earnings call in 2-3 weeks. I could see an uneven climb to 10+ before then.
Good day village people. Glad for Erpy who provides good leadership here. and good for those of us still down 50%+... I doubt I’m the only one. I can use a few more 20% days
Conf call sounds good. Q1 up at least 20-25% from q4. So 90-95mil quarter to finish next week. No full year guidance on rev or store opening due to Covid. But reasonable to imagine a $500mil FY20?
CURLF earnings were good and driven by FL sales they said. For much of Q4 Liberty was ahead of CURLF on the weekly reports, so I expect a good Q4 earning report here. Add in record Q1 surge recently and I cannot see how this stays below .50... just my .02... Stay safe everyone.
I like their sales in Q4, but not decline in gross margins. What is their cash burn rate in Q4 compared to the $40 mil they have in hand? Was Q4 a higher than usual cash burn month because of dispensary openings?
Yes- thanks. I have watched that - is there a way to see how many unique patients are visiting Liberty (or other) stores? I know Trul reports on this sometimes. Don't know if that is their own approach, or if it is publicly available info FL collects?
Mrone = where do you track patient count totals? Thx
These numbers are fantastic - Q1 will be amazing.
IR told me in email today it would be late March.
Nice day - any news or specific reason? Or just turning back up after two weeks down?
That will be 44th and 45th in FL
MJ = Jobs. Leafly report shows it is one of fastest growing industries in US. Listen up Congress and lets pass the SAFE Act.
https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20200207005038/en/Leafly-Jobs-Report-Cannabis-fastest-growing-American-industry
Perhaps, but CGC had its reckoning 7 months ago firing Linton and in the last 6 months, Constellation leaders have been forcing changes. (Same thing happened with APHA in Dec18-Jan19 with Vic N, serious CEO turned the corner and earnings in Aug19 popped.) Analysts lowered expectations a lot last summer and meanwhile CGC sales have been improving slightly. So in MJ - I've come to learn anything can happen to the downside- but odds are serious leaders have made some significant structural changes that will show in this earnings and make it feel at least that the MJ leader has turned the ship. We'll know more by Valentines day... broken heart, or back in love... or at least in like again. Sorry for the off TCNNF commentary, but it sucks Trulieve has to be tethered to the Canadians for market leadership.
Good breakdown Snap- thanks. Lets not be penny wise, and smokable ounce foolish...
Agree - I am expecting a sector lift with Canopy earnings next week - ACB got out ahead of the release with the firing and write down news on Thursday night. Was not pretty.
Smokeable Oz 11.3K up from 8.6K previous week. (2nd place Liberty also fell over 20% from previous week.) I like 31% higher weeks on the highest margin part of the biz. (I know I should smooth this over the month or quarter, but the slight dip last week OMMU was more than erased this first week of Feb.)
It's safe to say we came out smoking...
Go Trulieve
That is a great way to put it! Cura and others getting tossed with the ACB stanky bathwater... wtf...