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Great! Enjoy. higher store count did not help CWBHF, so maybe it was a non-issue. Good guess anyway
Bloomberg reporter FB tweet:
Rep Collin Peterson says forestry dispute in farm bill worked out overnight. House GOP still objecting to other aspects of deal. Says he is ready to vote on farm bill and can bring most Democrats to yes
— Erik Wasson (@elwasson) November 28, 2018
Agree - I think they will be good longer term, but the way CVSI got punted with decent growth, this may not be good short term here.
FWIW here is a CWBHF conf call summary
Uplist discussion was reviewed thoroughly in late August and Early September. For those new to the board, go scan these - many of us dissected the NASD rules for stock price, market cap, and other criteria - CVSI fits easily. My stance: If CVSI was denied on the company, price or management that would have already happened within the 120 day window. I think it is directly related to the Farm Bill and legalization now.
I think the CWEB comp will help CVSI, but it seems clear that this crappy otc market does not work on those normal comparisons or things like 'earnings'. (See our revenue, earnings and SP or see TCNNF in MJ for example- but also on a crappy exchange) I sense CWBHF will head fake up in the AM and then start decline like ours. I sold half of my CWBHF position today on and may sell more in the AM. So at least one $20k+ rotation will flow into CVSI :) I still think CWEB may bounce more with FB because they have coverage, institutional investment and better PR.
Charlottes Web just posted 3% QoQ gain from q2 to q3. Looks like their Q3 was also disrupted. CVSI grew more rapidly despite having 50% less stores... I don't think they deployed their IPO cash very efectively yet. They need FB too.
Earnings 17.7 up from 17.2 quarter prior. Not what I was looking for esp after getting such a cash infusion. They need farm bill
What is the problem today? The shortage of cannabis article?
I'm thinking $20 mil based on a) comp to CVSI store counts; b) some disruption in certain states last quarter (product pulled form some shelves); c) but some of the new ipo money could have been used to keep sales advancing on a healthier clip. c won't help earnings, but may push revenue over 20mil. I hope its higher, but don't want to expect too much here. Would be good to get Farm Bill news ahead of good earnings - could be a double accelerant
I agree MC - I would like to see deals post FB. I think CVSI is positioned well for this.
Post FarmBill: FB looks good and seems to be early Dec. Question for the group (who has been shown to be overly optimistic - including me): are there honest scenarios where stock price will not respond well to this news? Any contrarian worries that this will allow bigger capacity MJ companies to announce big retail partnerships- APHA, CGC, TLRY? Or perhaps this will incentivize one of these companies to buy CVSI and jump to an immediate 10% market share? There was a recent APHA CEO interview where he pointed to CBD and wellness as the biggest potential future for his company.
I know I would prefer CVSI to be rewarded with reasonable valuation when legal, but these past few months have taught me to try to imagine some counter scenarios.
Happy Thanksgiving to all! Gummy Cranberry Salad... Maybe a few drops in certain relative's wine...
Any Pacer updates on lawsuits? Chill or Sleuth?
That is more optimistic. Surely someone will be overly ideological on one side or the other and screw it up. Its what they do :)
Yes I think we will keep climbing into mid 5s at least. My buys were similar 4.35 and then 4.11. I bought again today at 4.37. I’m almost all the way back in but will try again if it drops back to low 4s.
In post 33887 I gave my rationale. Looked like a similar setup to three previous oversold situations.
It took two days longer than I thought and RSI went even lower, but may be doing the same now. We will see
Hmmmm CWBHF reports after hours on 27th not tomorrow. Email came out today about this.
JohnCM may not have to eat his hat today.
Earnings call Nov 27
Charlotte's Web Holdings, Inc. Q3 Earnings Notice
NOVEMBER 15, 2018
BOULDER, CO, Nov. 15, 2018 /CNW/ - (CSE: CWEB; OTCQX: CWBHF) Charlotte's Web Holdings, Inc. ("Charlotte's Web" or the "Company"), the market share leader in hemp-based CBD wellness products, will issue its third quarter results via press release after the close of trading on the Canadian Securities Exchange (CSE) on November 27, 2018. A conference call to discuss the results has been scheduled for the same day at 4:30 p.m. Eastern Time.
CWB Holdings, Inc. (CNW Group/Charlotte's Web Holdings, Inc.)
To participate in the call, please dial 1-647-427-7450 or 1-888-231-8191 approximately 10 minutes before the conference call and provide conference ID 6842466. A recording of the call will be available through December 4, 2018. To listen to the rebroadcast please dial 1-416-849-0833 and provide the same conference ID.
A webcast of the call can be accessed through the investor relations section of the Charlotte's Web website.
Thanks Sleuth. Anything from CA side?
RSI 39 (on 3 mo view); SP sitting on the 100 DMA. I got some more CVSI at $4.35 and $4.22. Will get more if it slides again today. After TLRY and others there may be some looking around at "hey, who makes profits and is valued fairly in this stupid MJ speculative world?"
Just my feeling for the next couple of days.
I am not enjoying the MJ shakeout. But feel good that I am in CVSI, APHA, CWBHF, TCNNF - those with real revenue, positive earnings, good upside. I like a solid valuation floor below me. TLRY feels like a sand house on a fault line with that valuation, debt etc. CVSI feels ridiculous good value at $4.22. PS multiple of 9 now forward PE multiple of 9 when all big MJ producers are negative earnings (aside from the above)...
Lawsuit dismissal this week - I think I remember Nov 15 as the date for the ruling if lawsuits get dismissed or proceed?
Time to trade?: three times CVSI closed below the 50DMA since Aug Aug 29, Sept 7, Oct 4. All three RSI was 43 and all three the next day big move up followed by 2-10 days of swinging higher: (Look at your own chart and don't follow my advice, but traders tell me if this is not true...)
Aug 29 (RSI was 43; Aug 30 went from 3.15 and closed $4.08; rallied as high as $4.80 for a few days);
Sept 7 (RSI was 43; Sept 8 opened at 3.30 closed at 4.50; rallied as high as $6.2 about a week later);
Oct 4 (RSI was 43; Oct 5 opened at 4.03 closed at 5.06 and went to low 6's for next week...)
So here it sits on 43 RSI. Note the following days, the low in the AM was lower than the previous close by $.07, $.29, $.10. So my guess is at the open this trails down a little and then reverses up. I may make a bet on this today...
Did ACB earnings scare people off?
What are the revenue expectations? $20+ mil q3? I'm curious how they were affected by regulatory issues and if they increased their online channels to compensate for and retail slowdown. CVSI seems to have faced some of these issues.
Not sure why we are off so much. Why so weak?
Thanks Jefra!
Although we did not get view into channels, I am guessing there was a very significant increase in sales online (which is not regulated) to compensate for the regulatory challenges for retail locations. The fact we had any increase may be a sign of a strategic management move. very glad they are increasing sales people and incentivizing them well.
Vandy - you can't be serious. There is not a single Q statement that doesn't have forward risk statements in it. You can literally do that cherry picking BS with every company and every quarterly report.
Looks like this from Cowen website:
BOSTON CANNABIS SUMMIT
THE WESTIN BOSTON WATERFRONT, BOSTON, MA., NOVEMBER 28, 2018
Mark44 do you have a Cowen link for that event?
Great article Thanks to whomever posted this - I just read it. Compares CWEB and TLRY and much more. Plus author seems to have a better early investing history than The (self-proclaimed) Oracle: BKK...
http://www.streetwisereports.com/article/2018/11/07/hemp-sales-grow-at-cv-sciences-q3-beats-estimates-2019-outlook.html
@Monolith - any entry point in 4's? I agree with you TR- tomorrow down again seems likely. I got a little back at 4.97 today but I think we will see lower tomorrow unfortunately, so I am looking for the next resistance too.
Since Farm Bill will not pass until Dec 1 at earliest (if House Ag Chair Conaway gets his way), then we still face two months of Q4 with some amount of product yanked from shelves and not returning yet. But, if the online strategy has picked up as much as we see on the order #s, this could account for how we still got growth in Q3. Q4 revenue may be very hard to see (lumpy). I will think conservatively for now and give management the benefit of the doubt. Maybe that is why Dowling thought it was an "excellent" quarter and why the Farm Bill is the most important issue.
Sleuth - that was my take as well. And maybe this is overall good news to grow 10% into that bs...
Thoughts on conf call: I feel good about future positioning and see the NASD comments as very positive. His comment of "lumpy growth" and "regulatory challenges" was vague- clearly FarmBill is huge. Did we lose some stores due to the regulatory uncertainty; did we gain in on-line sales? Any online percentage growth to share? Any strategy for partnerships? No reference to these challenges from C**B and their 3,000 stores release the other day. Would love to hear other (thoughtful) comments.
Hi all: was CWEB dip related to CVSI slower growth this Q? It seems some rotation could happen with the store count being 50% higher than CVSI now.
Good morning all: my math has CVSI a conservative valuation of $8 (on TTM PS after Q3 allowing same 18 multiple as we have had. And much better looking forward - which on normal exchange would have us much higher since it tries to apply future value.)
But... my gut and annoying OTC experience over the past 6 months says OTC does not apply future value, just momentum and volume. This tells me near term SP goes down slowly to 50MA and a little below (low 5's high 4s). The big upside catalysts are out there, but vague on timing (Farm Bill, NASD); if we get Class Action dismissed next week that will be helpful. But CVSI is still largely unknown and has a tendency to trail down on low volume cheered on by the usual annoying suspects and their redundant claims. Would love to hear thoughts on near term SP.