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Hi Plexxus, Sorry that I did't reply to your post earlier, you wrote it in April and I received it in May! It's a bit strange that the mkts. are trading down right now because of Europe - so your post is very valid although written in Apr.
When the Supreme court stated (Nov. 2011) that they were going to review the healthcare law I thought that our mkt. would trade sideways till their decision is released in mid to late June, We're about 1000 djia points higher now, so I was wrong as I thought the sideways channel would be much tighter.
Randy
(OT) Thanks Plexxus, and thanks for all the helpful charts over the years.
Randy
(OT) Hi Plexxus, I can't find your public charts over at Stockcharts, they have been changing things over there and your work seems to be missing. Would you have the URL?
Thank you for your time.
Randy
(OT)Hey Kirk, Lakshman Achuthan will be on Brinker's show this weekend:
http://www.businesscycle.com/news/events/2101?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+EcriNews+%28ECRI+News%29&utm_content=My+Yahoo
Global Cooling Since 1998:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/nature/8299079.stm
This headline may come as a bit of a surprise, so too might that fact that the warmest year recorded globally was not in 2008 or 2007, but in 1998.
But it is true. For the last 11 years we have not observed any increase in global temperatures.
And our climate models did not forecast it, even though man-made carbon dioxide, the gas thought to be responsible for warming our planet, has continued to rise.
So what on Earth is going on?
Climate change sceptics, who passionately and consistently argue that man's influence on our climate is overstated, say they saw it coming.
They argue that there are natural cycles, over which we have no control, that dictate how warm the planet is. But what is the evidence for this?
During the last few decades of the 20th Century, our planet did warm quickly.
Recent research has ruled out solar influences on temperature increases
Sceptics argue that the warming we observed was down to the energy from the Sun increasing. After all 98% of the Earth's warmth comes from the Sun.
But research conducted two years ago, and published by the Royal Society, seemed to rule out solar influences.
The scientists' main approach was simple: to look at solar output and cosmic ray intensity over the last 30-40 years, and compare those trends with the graph for global average surface temperature.
And the results were clear. "Warming in the last 20 to 40 years can't have been caused by solar activity," said Dr Piers Forster from Leeds University, a leading contributor to this year's Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).
But one solar scientist Piers Corbyn from Weatheraction, a company specialising in long range weather forecasting, disagrees.
He claims that solar charged particles impact us far more than is currently accepted, so much so he says that they are almost entirely responsible for what happens to global temperatures.
He is so excited by what he has discovered that he plans to tell the international scientific community at a conference in London at the end of the month.
If proved correct, this could revolutionise the whole subject.
Ocean cycles
What is really interesting at the moment is what is happening to our oceans. They are the Earth's great heat stores.
In the last few years [the Pacific Ocean] has been losing its warmth and has recently started to cool down
According to research conducted by Professor Don Easterbrook from Western Washington University last November, the oceans and global temperatures are correlated.
The oceans, he says, have a cycle in which they warm and cool cyclically. The most important one is the Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO).
For much of the 1980s and 1990s, it was in a positive cycle, that means warmer than average. And observations have revealed that global temperatures were warm too.
But in the last few years it has been losing its warmth and has recently started to cool down.
These cycles in the past have lasted for nearly 30 years.
So could global temperatures follow? The global cooling from 1945 to 1977 coincided with one of these cold Pacific cycles.
Professor Easterbrook says: "The PDO cool mode has replaced the warm mode in the Pacific Ocean, virtually assuring us of about 30 years of global cooling."
So what does it all mean? Climate change sceptics argue that this is evidence that they have been right all along.
They say there are so many other natural causes for warming and cooling, that even if man is warming the planet, it is a small part compared with nature.
But those scientists who are equally passionate about man's influence on global warming argue that their science is solid.
The UK Met Office's Hadley Centre, responsible for future climate predictions, says it incorporates solar variation and ocean cycles into its climate models, and that they are nothing new.
In fact, the centre says they are just two of the whole host of known factors that influence global temperatures - all of which are accounted for by its models.
In addition, say Met Office scientists, temperatures have never increased in a straight line, and there will always be periods of slower warming, or even temporary cooling.
What is crucial, they say, is the long-term trend in global temperatures. And that, according to the Met office data, is clearly up.
To confuse the issue even further, last month Mojib Latif, a member of the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) says that we may indeed be in a period of cooling worldwide temperatures that could last another 10-20 years.
The UK Met Office says that warming is set to resume
Professor Latif is based at the Leibniz Institute of Marine Sciences at Kiel University in Germany and is one of the world's top climate modellers.
But he makes it clear that he has not become a sceptic; he believes that this cooling will be temporary, before the overwhelming force of man-made global warming reasserts itself.
So what can we expect in the next few years?
Both sides have very different forecasts. The Met Office says that warming is set to resume quickly and strongly.
It predicts that from 2010 to 2015 at least half the years will be hotter than the current hottest year on record (1998).
Sceptics disagree. They insist it is unlikely that temperatures will reach the dizzy heights of 1998 until 2030 at the earliest. It is possible, they say, that because of ocean and solar cycles a period of global cooling is more likely.
One thing is for sure. It seems the debate about what is causing global warming is far from over. Indeed some would say it is hotting up.
Cronyism, reason Fed missed/unaccountable for meltdown?
http://neweconomicperspectives.blogspot.com/2009/09/what-fed-has-to-say-about-this.html
What the Fed has to Say About This?
An interesting article by Ryan Grym on Fed control of research. "Priceless: How The Federal Reserve Bought The Economics Profession"
According to the article,
The Federal Reserve, through its extensive network of consultants, visiting scholars, alumni and staff economists, so thoroughly dominates the field of economics that real criticism of the central bank has become a career liability for members of the profession, an investigation by the Huffington Post has found.
This dominance helps explain how, even after the Fed failed to foresee the greatest economic collapse since the Great Depression, the central bank has largely escaped criticism from academic economists. In the Fed's thrall, the economists missed it, too.
"The Fed has a lock on the economics world," says Joshua Rosner, a Wall Street analyst who correctly called the meltdown. "There is no room for other views, which I guess is why economists got it so wrong."
One critical way the Fed exerts control on academic economists is through its relationships with the field's gatekeepers. For instance, at the Journal of Monetary Economics, a must-publish venue for rising economists, more than half of the editorial board members are currently on the Fed payroll -- and the rest have been in the past.
Even the late Milton Friedman, whose monetary economic theories heavily influenced Greenspan, was concerned about the stifled nature of the debate.
Friedman, in a 1993 letter to Auerbach that the author quotes in his book, argued that the Fed practice was harming objectivity: "I cannot disagree with you that having something like 500 economists is extremely unhealthy. As you say, it is not conducive to independent, objective research. You and I know there has been censorship of the material published. Equally important, the location of the economists in the Federal Reserve has had a significant influence on the kind of research they do, biasing that research toward noncontroversial technical papers on method as opposed to substantive papers on policy and results," Friedman wrote.
Brother, can you spare a synthetic currency?
http://www.ibtimes.com/articles/20090707/the-implication-of-the-imf-bonds-and-their-aftermaths.htm
The Fund plans to issue the new bonds denominated in special drawing rights (SDRs), which is a synthetic currency made up by the dollar (44%), the euro (34%), the Japanese yen (11%) and the British pound (11%). However, the maturity of these bonds is still unknown, with some saying that they will be issued for a shorter period, up to 18 months, while other say it will be as long as 5 year.
http://www.chinaeconomicreview.com/dailybriefing/2009_09_03/China_buys__50_billion_in_first-ever_IMF_bonds.html
China will buy approximately US$50 billion in bonds issued by the International Monetary Fund, AFP reported. The IMF said China had signed an agreement on Wednesday in Washington to buy the bonds, which are denominated in Special Drawing Rights (SDRs). Chinese central bank Governor Zhou Xiaochuan raised SDRs earlier this year as the basis for a global reserve currency alternative to the US dollar. The agreement was the first-ever note purchase agreement for the IMF; the organization has turned to bonds in an attempt to increase its resources to help member nations hit by the economic downturn. The investment also helps China in its attempts to diversify its foreign asset holdings.
Peak oil ..... NOT!
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/BP-announces-giant-oil-find-apf-2273328778.html?x=0&.v=1
LONDON (AP) -- BP PLC said Wednesday that it had made a "giant" oil discovery in the Gulf of Mexico but had not yet determined the size and commercial potential of the find.
The well, in Keathley Canyon block 102 about 250 miles (400 kms) southeast of Houston, is in 4,132 feet (1,259 meters) of water, the company said.
The Tiber well was drilled to a total depth of 35,055 feet (10,685 meters), making it one of the deepest wells ever drilled by the oil and gas industry, BP said.
BP has a 62 percent interest in Tiber, while Petrobras holds 20 percent and ConocoPhillips has 18 percent.
BP shares were up 1.9 percent at 529.5 pence on the London Stock Exchange.
Here's how the Communists deal with derivatives:
http://www.china.org.cn/business/news/2009-09/01/content_18440731.htm
Chinese State-owned enterprises (SOEs) may unilaterally terminate derivative contracts with six foreign banks that provide over-the-counter commodity hedging services, Chinese business magazine Caijing reported, citing unnamed sources.
The report said that the State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission (SASAC), China's SOE watchdog, has informed the financial institutions in written letters that SOEs reserved the right to default on those derivative contracts.
Air China, China Eastern and shipping giant COSCO - among the Chinese SOEs mired in huge derivatives losses since late last year - have issued letters to banks, Reuters reported yesterday, citing a Singapore-based bank source, who said he had heard of the letters and that they were all in the same format. However, no bank name was mentioned in the report.
The Caijing report, quoting an unidentified SASAC official, said that almost every SOE involved in foreign exchange or trade had some exposure to derivatives such as crude oil, non-ferrous metals, agricultural commodities, iron ore and coal, although only 31 SOEs were licensed to do so.
"If we were among the banks receiving that letter, we would be very angry. But now the key is to find out more details about the letter: In whose name the letter was issued, government or corporate? And under what reasons for possible defaults?" a Singapore-based marketing executive with a foreign bank said in an interview with Reuters.
But Fan Haibo, an analyst from China Cinda Securities, told China Daily that these contracts sold by foreign banks to SOEs could be illegal.
"Those contracts sold by foreign banks could be without the regulators' approval, or some foreign banks may not possess the necessary qualifications to conduct the business," Fan said.
"That is the only explanation if SASAC really sent out letters," said the analyst.
SASAC took over the job of overseeing SOEs' derivatives trading from the securities regulator in February after several Chinese firms reported huge losses from derivatives. It quickly tightened the rules, ordering firms to quit risky contracts and report their positions on a quarterly basis.
In January, Air China, Shanghai Airlines and China Eastern reported book losses of almost $2 billion on aviation fuel hedging contracts, Xinhua news agency said at the time.
In March, SASAC ordered that SOEs must review their futures, options, forwards and swap contracts in overseas markets and quit those with high risks. SOEs must overhaul their existing derivative investments, including investments through banks, and re-assess the risks of these products.
"Any form of speculative trading must be banned," the agency said.
"Financial derivatives are a double-edged sword, and any misuse could result in huge losses for companies."
Story here also:
http://www.chinaeconomicreview.com/dailybriefing/2009_09_01/SASAC:_SOEs_may_cancel_bad_derivatives_contracts.html
Tea, I thought you might find this article on Fibonacci interesting:
http://www.scientificblogging.com/hammock_physicist/fibonacci_butterflies
Thanks Tea (End Of Message)
Hello Tea, Thanks for taking the time to post your charts. I was attemping to find your thoughts on the long term over at the Trader Talk thread and it was frustratingly slow(as you well know). Would I be correct to state that if we get a weekly close above SPX 1010, then your target of OEX 270 is not likely?
(OT) Hello Kirk - I read your post:
http://siliconinvestor.advfn.com/readmsg.aspx?msgid=25744273
and when I got to the part where you typed (I threw away a Libertarian vote second time in protest over his spending.) I thought since you've always been open minded(IMO)that you might find Mike Normans take on spending to be interesting, I don't want to put words in his mouth as that often does a injustice to someones thoughts or opinions, but if you take the time to follow his train of thought it may change the way you think in terms of spending, currencies, and deficits.
http://mikenormaneconomics.blogspot.com/
Interesting article on derivatives:
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/06/01/business/01lobby.html?_r=1
In Crisis, Banks Dig In for Fight Against Rules
Gov. approved pathway to a scam ?
http://navellier.com/commentary/weekly_marketmail.aspx
By Karl Denninger
Let's say that I am a bank ("financial institution") with $100 billion in "toxic assets". I have them on my balance sheet at 80 cents on the dollar. The market has them marked at 30 cents. We do not know what the held-to-maturity performance will be, since that requires knowing the future, although for the moment let's assume that they are cash-flowing at the present time.
What I (the bank) do know, however, is that if I sell them at 30 cents I take a monstrous loss - perhaps enough to force me under Tier Capital limits and thus render me subject to an FDIC enforcement action. I therefore will not sell for 30 cents so long as I have any belief whatsoever that the cash flow - or any government subsidy - will exceed that value.
If I, as a "financial institution" can participate as a bidder in these auctions I can foist off my loss onto the taxpayer. Here is how I can rig the game so as to avoid an otherwise-inevitable loss:
• I become a "bidder" and "bid" on my own assets at 75 cents.
• I am providing 5 or 10% of the money. The rest is covered by Treasury, The Fed and the FDIC via guaranteed bond issuance.
• The loan, ex my contribution, is non-recourse. That is, I can lose 5 or 10% of the total portfolio purchased, but nothing more.
Now the "assets" (a passel of CDOs?) turn out to be worthless. I lose 5% of $75 billion, or $3.75 billion that I put up, plus the other nickel on the original mark, but that's all.
Lucien Hooper December Low Indicator DJIA 8149.09
http://www.stocktradersalmanac.com/sta/research_tool_DecemberLow.jsp
http://raymondjames.com/inv_strat.htm
“When the Dow closes below its December closing low in the first quarter, it is frequently an excellent warning sign. Jeffrey Saut, managing director of investment strategy at Raymond James, brought this to our attention a few years ago. The December Low Indicator was originated by Lucien Hooper, a Forbes columnist and Wall Street analyst back in the 1970s. Hooper dismissed the importance of January and January’s first week as reliable indicators. He noted that the trend could be random or even manipulated during a holiday-shortened week. Instead, said Hooper, ‘Pay much more attention to the December low. If that low is violated during the first quarter of the New Year, watch out. . . . If the December low is not crossed, turn to our January Barometer for guidance. It has been virtually perfect, right nearly 100% of these times’ (view the complete results at http://www.hirschorg.com/declow).”
I think they brought him on to do "color" like a obnoxious sportscaster that is loud and opinionated. I think he and Cramer were big mistakes.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/26293262
Tea, Thanks for sharing your opinions. Your Da Man.
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$WLSH&p=W&yr=9&mn=0&dy=0&i=p95871186961&a=135927698&r=9475
http://www.traders-talk.com/mb2/index.php?s=ddac3ed7936fb112708d243a751c7765&showtopic=92367
http://www.traders-talk.com/mb2/index.php?showtopic=92558
http://www.traders-talk.com/mb2/index.php?s=a1435d09d57015e18ebf41dac07374b6&showtopic=92600
"Working Group" becomes "Working Groups". - Does this signify that the problems are now at the point that a single group cannot analyze the situation?
------ ---------- ---------
As both the nation's central bank and a financial regulator, the Federal Reserve must be well prepared to make constructive contributions to the coming national debate on the future of the financial system and financial regulation. Accordingly, we have set up a number of internal working groups, consisting of governors, Reserve Bank presidents, and staff, to study these and related issues. That work is ongoing, and I do not want to prejudge the outcomes.
http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/bernanke20080822a.htm
-------------- ----------------- ------
The Working Group on Financial Markets (also, President's Working Group on Financial Markets or the Working Group) was created by Executive Order 12631,[1] signed on March 18, 1988 by United States President Ronald Reagan.
The Group was established explicitly in response to events in the financial markets surrounding October 19, 1987 ("Black Monday") to give recommendations for legislative and private sector solutions for "enhancing the integrity, efficiency, orderliness, and competitiveness of [United States] financial markets and maintaining investor confidence".[1]
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Working_Group_on_Financial_Markets
Kirk, Do you think the Garz is getting to be like Brinker? In the PBS interview on Nov. 30 2007 she said:
YASTINE: Elaine, do you own or do you short any of these issues that you've recommended to us?
GARZARELLI: I wouldn't short them. I think I own every one of them and I'll buy more.
http://www.pbs.org/nbr/site/onair/transcripts/071130d/
------------------ -----------------------
Then in a PBS interview on Aug. 1 2008:
KANGAS: On your last visit in late November, you were very cautious about the stock market and had no real buy recommendations. But instead you gave our viewers four securities to put on a shopping list for possible purchase if the economy began to improve. Let's see how those suggestions fared since then, Financial Select Sector (XLF), the spider fund, down obviously 30 percent. But you didn't buy, I hope.
GARZARELLI: No, I didn't buy any of them. I'm waiting for my buy signal, which is 65 percent.
http://www.pbs.org/nbr/site/onair/transcripts/080801d/
-------------------- -----------------
She's covered of course by saying "I think I own" instead of "I own".
Tea, thanks for this insightful post.(E.O.M.)
Thanks for deciding to post over here, I've often wondered why Tea and others are treated with such disrespect on the TT site. But their loss is this threads gain.
Tea, Thanks for the update. (E.O.M.)
(OT) Tea you might want to unplug it, leave it unplugged for at least 60 seconds.
Well Said !!! (EOM)
Tea, Remember your jaws chart? Thanks for sharing your work.
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$VIX&p=M&st=1997-01-01&i=p85992598941&a=78533567&r=7341
Tea, Thanks for sharing your view.(EOM)
(OT) That was a great match, Nadal may take the #1 spot off Federer as this article explains.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/sport/main.jhtml?view=DETAILS&grid=A1YourView&xml=/sport/2008/07/07/utrank107.xml
Thanks for the update. (E.O.M.)
Greenehugh, I noticed that you're familar with Claud's charts, Do you know his new url? Could you pass it on to me if you know it?
This is the old address:
http://www.patmedia.net/claudb/
Thanks,
Randy
http://siliconinvestor.advfn.com/readmsg.aspx?msgid=22646491
Tea, Super read. Thanks for sharing your opinions.
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=29346653
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=29343615
Tea, Thanks for the update. Thanks also for the blog.
(OT)You very well might be right, Lee Raymond said to Charlie Rose on PBS that no one knows what's down there, He used Prudo Bay as a example, He said when it was discovered experts said that we could pump it for one to two years, and now 40 years later we're still pumping.
IMO no one knows whats in the planet and we won't find out in our lifetimes.
Any thoughts on Methane Hydrate?
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aiUsVKaqDA7g
Japan Mines `Flammable Ice,' Flirts With Environmental Disaster
By Shigeru Sato
Dec. 26 (Bloomberg) -- Fifty-five million years ago the world's climate was catastrophically changed when volcanoes melted natural gas frozen in the seabed. Now Japan plans to drill for the same icy crystals to end its reliance on imported energy.
Billions of tons of methane hydrate, frozen chunks of chemical-laced water buried in sediment some 3,000 feet under the Pacific Ocean floor, may help Japan win energy independence from the Middle East and Indonesia. Japanese engineers have found enough ``flammable ice' to meet its gas use demands for 14 years. The trick is extracting it without damaging the environment.
Japan is joining the U.S. and Canada in test drilling for methane even as scientists express concerns about any uncontrolled release of the frozen chemical. Some researchers blame the greenhouse gas for triggering a global firestorm that helped wipe out the dinosaurs.
``Methane hydrate was a key cause of the global warming that led to one of the largest extinctions in the earth's history,' says Ryo Matsumoto, a University of Tokyo scientist who has studied frozen gas since 1987. ``By making the best use of our wisdom, knowledge and technology, we should be able to utilize this wisely as a new energy.'
If successful, the gas drilling project could help Japan reduce a liquefied natural gas import bill that last year was 2.66 trillion yen ($23.3 billion). The country's LNG imports totaled 62.2 million metric tons, equivalent to 3.03 trillion cubic feet, according to the Ministry of Finance's trade report.
``We are closely watching the government's methane hydrate project, expecting some day to start receiving gas via pipelines from the continental shelf,' says Toshiharu Okui, deputy general manager of gas resources at Tokyo Gas Co., the country's largest distributor of natural gas.
500 Meters Thick
Trapped within sheets of ice up to 500 meters (1,640 feet) thick is an estimated 40 trillion cubic feet of crystalline methane encased in an ocean trench called the Nankai Trough, 30 miles (50 kilometers) off the coast of the main Honshu Island.
``Reserves aren't as much as Saudi Arabia's or Russia's, but they will contribute to us cutting our heavy dependence on imports,' says Yoshifumi Hashiba, deputy director of the trade ministry's petroleum and natural gas division.
Exploiting the Nankai Trough depends on developing technical know-how through a test project in Canada's frozen north, says Kenichi Yokoi, team leader of the methane hydrate research project at state-controlled Japan Oil, Gas and Metals National Corp., known as Jogmec.
``Test production in Canada's permafrost is the key to provide clues and determine how methane hydrate can be tapped for mass production,' says Yokoi. ``Conventional drilling technologies won't be applied for methane hydrate exploitation.'
Test Drilling Results
The most efficient method has proved ``depressurizing,' which requires deep bore holes being drilled into the ice sheets. Pressure within the chamber is reduced by a pump, causing gaseous methane to separate from the water and ascend to the well head.
A first round of drilling was completed in April by Jogmec and the Canadian government and a second set of tests are scheduled for early 2008. The two governments won't disclose results due to a confidentiality agreement, Jogmec's Yokoi says.
Commercial exploitation of methane hydrate is economically viable when oil trades above $54 a barrel, Japan's government estimated two years ago. The trade ministry is targeting 2016 to start production, corresponding with the scheduled completion of the 16-year government-led test project.
While governments are attracted to an abundant clean fuel, drilling risks disturbing the seabed and triggering an uncontrolled release, says Matsumoto of the University of Tokyo.
``A mass release of methane into the sea and the atmosphere is a risk for global warming,' he says. ``Massive landslides at the ocean floor must be avoided when drilling at the Nankai Trough.'
Undersea Landslides
Undersea landsides triggered by volcanoes that occurred more than fifty million years ago resulted in the release of methane hydrate, contributing to global warming that lasted tens of thousands of years, says Matsumoto.
Japan's government is promising rigorous environmental controls with gas-leakage detectors and monitoring systems in place before the scheduled test drilling in as early as 2009.
``Energy security and environment protection cannot be apart from each other,' says the trade ministry's Hashiba. ``We need a comprehensive assessment.'
Among other concerns are that the separation of sea water and colder fresh water will cause ocean temperatures in the Nankai Trough to fall, says Hashiba. The area is a habitat for red sea bream, a fish delicacy.
Fishing Bank Threat
``We're worried that drilling work might harm our fishing banks out there and eventually reduce our catches of red sea bream,' says Hironori Watanabe at the Katsuura City fishery association.
A bigger worry is evidence that the undersea ice may already be melting. In September, Matsumoto joined a research party in the Sea of Japan to follow up on a 2006 discovery by his university colleagues of methane gas bubbles rising from the ocean floor.
``It's ironically recurring,' Matsumoto says. ``Extinction of living organisms has repeatedly taken place in the earth's history, and dead bodies were accumulated in soil and under the sea bed, and turned to oil and natural gas.'
To contact the reporters on this story: Shigeru Sato in Tokyo at ssato10@bloomberg.net ;
Last Updated: December 25, 2007 11:13 EST
Jim, I believe this is what you heard about:
http://www.presstv.ir/detail.aspx?id=30379§ionid=351020706
Giant oil find in Brazil
Fri, 09 Nov 2007 06:26:32
Petrobras, the government-run oil company
Brazil is to become one of the world's major petroleum exporters after finding a giant oil field, raising the country's reserves by 40%.
Petrobras, the government-run oil company, said the new "ultra-deep" Tupi field could hold as much as 8b barrels of recoverable light crude, sending the firm shares soaring and prompting predictions that Brazil could join the world's "top 10" oil producers.
Petrobras President Sergio Gabrielli said the oil from ultra-deep areas, including the Tupi field, would give Brazil the world's eighth-largest oil and gas reserves.
The new oil field which located in Brazil's southeastern Atlantic coast has between 5b and 8b barrels - that is 40 percent of all the oil ever discovered in Brazil.
Gabrielli said that Brazil's total oil reserves currently rank 17th in the world, at 14.4 billion barrels.
Great charts Tea. Thank you. (EOM)
Still no recession call from E.C.R.I.
http://www.businesscycle.com/news/press/1368/
Forbes
27-December-2007
(Forbes) - No-one knows for a certainty that 2008 will be a year of recession. Gurus are all over the map with their crystal balls, some wishfully calling for a "growth recession," while others see a very rotten time ahead indeed.
But better pay close attention--because a great deal is riding on the recession odds. There's the value of your portfolio, the cost of money, your job, the price of oil, inflation and very likely the identity of the next inhabitant of the White House. The worse the recession, I would say, the better the chances of the Democratic candidate.
According to the Economic Cycle Research Institute, seven out of 10 citizens now believe we are or will soon be in a recession. That could be a powerful sentiment slowing the economy. Certainly the credit crisis reflects that we have been in a serious slowdown for some time now. The leading home price index is at a six-year low, financial services are at a 13-year low, while non-financial services are at a 56-month low, according to figures kept by ECRI.
Sounds pretty bad, doesn't it?
Be on your own personal recession watch. Carefully follow the major drivers of the economy.
Most crucial are the job figures. which are holding up, but have softened to under 100,000 new jobs last month. Any two months in a row of negative job growth--meaning there were job losses--is usually the key indicator that a recession is around the corner, asserts Lakshman Achuthan, of the ECRI, a private organization that keeps the most intensive watch over all statistical indicators of the economy.
Second, the industrial manufacturing figures, which are holding up due to exports based on the weakening dollar, are the next best barometer of the U.S. economy. Still, manufacturing is well below the June high, suggesting that this sector is "subdued," according to the ECRI December report.
Third, housing is down and expected to fall lower. Merrill Lynch economist David A. Rosenberg says in a report that the roof caving in on housing starts with a 43% plunge in new single-family homes.
Consumer expectations are falling as confidence lags due to the inability to borrow vast amounts of money on rising home values. Interest rates, of course, are headed lower, due to the credit crunch, and may also be a sign of the recession coming. The same Merrill report suggests that chain store sales are looking very soft in the critical December holiday period, which many stores count on for a good part of their yearly turnover.
Corporate earnings are holding up for now, but are expected to slow significantly, perhaps by 16%--which represents the median decline in corporate earnings during recessions over the past 50 years, according to Morgan Stanley. "Earnings are now 62% above trend. If history repeats--and I see no reason why it shouldn't --there is a huge earnings shock coming," says Abhijit Chakrabortti, Morgan Stanley U.S. strategist. That's far more bearish than projections by Goldman Sachs or T. Rowe Price, the mutual fund company.
Investor expectations, neither bullish nor bearish, are flat, indicating that investors can't make up their mind about the recession because they can't see it. Don't wait for the National Bureau of Economic Recession (their Business Cycle Dating Committee is the body that officially calls a recession) to tell you that we're in one, because they ordinarily wait until economic activity has fallen for six months. By then, it's too late--the stock market will have sagged.
Even the Economic Cycle Research Institute believes, based on today's figures--which are a mix of positive and negative--that a recession isn't inevitable. Yet its Weekly Leading Index has fallen to its lowest point since November 2002, suggesting, admits Achuthan, that "U.S. Economic growth prospects continue to worsen."
If SOX 487 was important, 412 might also be interesting.
Hello Newly, I have not downloaded any of his software. Thanks for recommending his books, I borrowed one from the library and picked up a few ideas from it.
Newly, I thought you might find this new idea from Bulkowski interesting, courtesy Tomato.
http://siliconinvestor.advfn.com/readmsg.aspx?msgid=24080986