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and, of course,
SPY had a steep low-vol spike upwards
just after punching the new LOD.
seems bots want this higher?
something about the 26m-volume SPY rally
in the last 15 min last night?
UVXY rallying strongly now
SPY toying with new LOD.
got SPY 468p @ 0.32
edit: SPY new LOD now
as UVXY rallies higher.
it's def a rigged game.
just need to surf the charts as best we can. :)
re: just don't know for sure what's in their manipulation game book for the day,
def agree,
which is why i generally aim to scalp momo moves
and rarely hold any options overnight.
in the immediate,
looks like up may be the direction for now
as SPY breaks to new HOD on decent volume.
SPY new HOD now
on rising 1min volume.
watching for call entry on dip.
SPY found higher S,
but also lower R this oscillation,
with ever-dwindling 5min volume.
still no conviction in either direction.
overall, SPY does look ready to bounce.
AAPL, MSFT upticks last 10 min.
and SPY holding higher S last 20 min than LOD S.
time will tell.
not risking SPY calls
until there's a new HOD on solid volume increase.
closed SPY jan5 469p @ 1.08 from 0.52 (at friday close).
looks like SPY buyers holding the support levels.
could rally from here.
going to wait and see before risking calls.
SPY trying to rally now
as UVXY sells off.
going to close puts on next dip
unless it's a new LOD.
current mini rally stalled for now
with UVXY still plucky
so i'm expecting at least one dip
before SPY pushes higher.
SPY new LOD.
still holding puts until next S level.
not much selling volume yet,
so not adding any more puts for now
until more confirmation of sell-off this morning.
up 90% on the jan5 469p (from 0.52) at the open.
looks like a SPY rally out of the gate.
going to wait and see how the open goes.
MSFT spiked up at the open
and then rapidly sold off,
now dipping lower than open.
AAPL, TSLA, NFLX, AMD, META all selling off for now.
WYNN is the only ticker rallying on my scan grid thus far.
could all change quickly, so going to watch for signs of a rally.
fwiw, got SPY jan5 469p @ 0.52
as a lotto play on potential sell-off next week
on notion that fund mgrs will rebalance
their overbought positions.
def not certain. just a hunch.
time will tell.
SPY stalled and sagging
with 10min left in the trading year.
UVXY finding some mojo now.
looks like the fund mgrs are fine with 475?
despite the massive buying at the close yesterday
to stem the sell-off and post 476.69 close...
MoD, did you bail on 476c?
ThekidOG, re: Yikes GL
not everything posted online is true? ⚖️
fwiw, bailed 476c @ 0.42 from 0.30.
fund bots might rally in the last 30 min,
as they have before.
but theta is the elephant now
and i'm locking in the small profit to be safe.
curious to see what next week brings!
fwiw, still holding 476c for now, slightly green,
based on SPY showing some strength
while UVXY showing weakness.
would def prefer more buying volume
as theta bleeds down.
maybe buy bots @ 15:00 for the final hour?
time will tell...
SPM, fwiw, i don't think there's any "smart money" here,
including my own ante,
which has always been a highly speculative gamble for me.
and i feel the risk significantly increased
with the announcement of the RS
and 5x increase in dilution overhead.
we can agree to disagree on this.
you are clearly set in your convictions.
and, as before, i do hope this gamble
pays off well for you,
as that will mean it pays off well
for the rest of us, too.
time will tell, as it always does.
looks like SPY is trying to rally,
but UVXY keeps showing signs of life, too.
def sellers still in the mix.
let's see if the fund buy bots kick in @ 14:30.
if not, i'll prolly bail soon after 14:30
to avoid steeper theta decline
and just wait to see what next week brings.
SPY 0dte 476c @ 0.30
AMD 0dte 149c @ 0.30
looks like SPY wants to bounce now,
with UVXY moving lower from 1pm support stall.
and, per my hunch, i suspect fund mgrs want to rally
as high as possible into the close today.
2H2, fwiw, i found a couple links quoting the $6t figure as liquid cash.
both articles quote money market funds,
meaning upper quintile income levels.
so that money could flow many places besides stocks,
including real estate, private corp investments, buying sports franchises, etc...
even if the figures are legit,
def seems suspect to me to assume that money would flow into equities in 2024.
[[ Nearly $6 trillion is sitting in money market funds. Here’s where that cash can go next ]]
https://www.cnbc.com/2023/12/14/nearly-6-trillion-is-sitting-in-money-market-funds-heres-where-that-cash-can-go-next.html
[[ A $6 trillion cash hoard could fuel more U.S. stock gains as Fed pivots ]]
https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/6-trillion-cash-hoard-could-fuel-more-us-stock-gains-fed-pivots-2023-12-15/
wow. looks like profit-takers are active today.
per prior msgs, i still expect funds to pull out all the stops
to try to bot rally to maintain at least the 477 level at close today
for 2023 ROI window-dressing.
but only time will tell.
this selling does reinforce the notion
that markets could sell-off next week
once the fund mgrs book their 2023 ROI figures tonight.
spartex, alia, re: 2024 markets,
fwiw, a msg just now from a friend who tracks cnbc inlined below.
those numbers seem possible to me,
after potential fund mgr rebalancing in jan,
assuming ww3 doesn't break out.
note the russell 50% growth potential!
[[ Tom Lee interview now on CNBC:
I think Russell 2000 can rally 50% in 2024.
Housing and autos is 70% of inflation.
SPY 5200 by end of 2024
40% of S&P are the FAANG stocks.
Why should FAANG stocks decrease
if they are going to growing earnings by 10%? ]]
also, fwiw:
[[ Asian stocks, best year since 2018.
German stock market, the DAX up 20%.
Brazil 22%, India 19% ]]
re: "got the 6 trillion cash on sidelines from CNBC"
did they cite their sources?
imo, it matters how they define "sidelines."
if there's $6t in cash wallowing amid high inflation
then, yeah, it's gonna wanna flow into some manner of investment.
if the $6t is in gold, crypto, foreign markets, etc...
then it seems less likely to flow into usa markets as quickly?
spartex, re: how potentially disruptive AI may be on society in terms of jobs
simple truth is none of us can anticipate how AI will evolve.
there are def utopian potential scenarios in which humans can enjoy more leisure
due to both AI and robot labor.
there are also dystopian scenarios in which only the elite benefit from the productivity.
eg: french revolution scenario.
as well as dystopian scenarios in which weapon-enabled military AI
decides that humans are the problem.
aka: the _terminator_ "skynet" and _matrix_ theses.
only time will tell how it plays out.
but the hollywood strikes are clear evidence
that the future is now.
spartex, re: need a 0.69% allotment of lipstick in their algos to do it,
per the NAAIM data, fund mgrs were 97% invested last week
and 103% invested (ie: overleveraged) this week.
seems they are pulling out all the stops for ROI window-dressing?
so 0.69% additional overleveraging seems likely palatable
on the assumption they can rebalance next week,
dumping their bloated inventories into whatever bullish sentiment avails?
https://www.naaim.org/programs/naaim-exposure-index/
MoD, i think they will aim for higher today,
but, per the close last night, sellers are def present, too.
so i'd be wary of going heavy on calls intraday
except for scalping momo surges.
given the massive rescue buying in the final 5 min yesterday
(15.4% of SPY's total 59.3m volume today in buys in final 5min),
i'm guessing the fund mgrs at least want
to book their annual ROI at the SPY 477 level.
no doubt, they will take any bonus altitude they can bot manip today.
spartex, per our private convo on AI revolution,
i still suspect that a decade from now, AI will have replaced far more jobs than it created.
i'm in the software industry, which most thought would be stable amid need to program robots, etc...
but now AI is writing code, and doing it far faster and with fewer bugs than human coders.
the hollywood SAG-AFTRA and WGA (writers) strikes in recent months
were driven in large part by concern that digital actors and AI writers
will displace human actors/creatives.
personally, i feel the rise of non-malevolent AI and robots
could be a boon in productivity and reduce the need for human labor
while still supporting the populace
as long as the owner class are willing to share the productivity
with humans in the labor classes who are no longer employable.
tho, human history tends to suggest that
people with money, power, and resources
are reluctant to share it with the masses.
something about the french revolution
with louis xvi throwing sumptuous feasts
while the vast majority of french citizens
were literally starving during a famine.
and the risk of malevolent AI and rogue hunter-killer robots
remains a credible concern in a world that tends to
pursue weapons development aggressively
with scant concerns for the long-term consequences.
time will tell how it plays out.
chartmaster, re: New traders don't want to buy Apple stock at $195 a share, they want to search the internet for HOT stock tips! The next Gamestop MEME play!
so you're talking about OTC/pink stock rallies, not a SPY rally?
(this is a SPY forum)
re: "There were 5 trillion cash on sidelines in 2020, now we're at 6 trillion cash on sidelines"
do you have links for that data?
does "sidelines" mean in bonds?
in cash/gold?
other?
re: "A Record 58% of households own stocks now"
53% of usa households are also in mutual funds,
which are currently overleveraged at ~103%
from buying to drive current SPY levels:
https://www.naaim.org/programs/naaim-exposure-index/
usa consumer credit card debt is at record levels (~$1t) and rising
while interest rates are very high on that debt:
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CCLACBW027SBOG
usa consumer debt percent of disposable income is back to pre-covid levels now
while interest rates are high on that debt:
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CDSP
usa consumer & nonprofit credit debt is also at all time high of $5t and rising steeply
while interest rates are high on that debt:
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/HCCSDODNS
and, the net result, usa personal interest payments on debt
have **doubled** since feb 2022, now up to $564b monthly.
that's ~$1700 per month per usa resident, including children and fixed income elderly.
($564b / 332m population)
and ~$3350 per month per employed usa resident
($564b / 168m labor force)
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/B069RC1
[[ 25% of Americans still have holiday debt from last year:
‘If you’re in a hole, stop digging,’ says money expert ]]
https://www.cnbc.com/2023/11/23/wallethub-25percent-of-americans-still-have-holiday-debt-from-last-year.html
curious to hear where you got your $6t sidelines figure
and how that compares with record $5t debt at high interest rates,
meaning all-time-high collective monthly interest payments.
wouldn't surprise me if OTC gets more love than prior years
due to compulsive gambling,
so if your thesis is OTC cash inflow, that might happen.
but it seems the usa has a major debt problem currently
which only increased this xmas season.
bank profits will no doubt be fine
due to all that interest income.
but consumer spending seems likely to suffer.
and with consumer debt / disposable income back to pre-covid levels,
the covid surplus money from people not having social lives
is already spent again, yes?
time will tell how it plays out.
to be clear, i'm not saying markets will crumble in 2024.
(unless ww3 breaks out, in which case, chaos likely ensues)
logically, markets always rise as populations grow,
because there are more people making money, spending it, pumping it into IRAs each month, etc...
and the top two quintiles are enjoying ever more wealth inequity
and need to park that wealth somewhere.
just noting that the vast majority of usa consumers
are saddled with double the monthly interest maintenance outflow and struggling to pay bills
so it seems likely the wealthy who will mostly be contributing to big board index rises in 2024?
tho, if OTC is your point, then, yeah,
maybe the record number of usa citizens now living in vehicles
because they can't afford rent
will gamble what they have on lotto penny stocks
hoping for a miracle?
https://www.pressdemocrat.com/article/news/more-americans-turn-to-living-in-their-cars/
what's your logic for the melt-up?
what drivers do you see?
or just anticipating bot manip ever upward
because they can?
fwiw, note SPY's action in the final 30 min today.
(per first chart inlined at end)
at 15:30, someone started ask-whacking with small lots
inducing a low volume walk up into the close.
(imo, fund mgr bots, intent on ROI window-dressing)
at 15:45, sellers started dumping in a steep sell-off,
dumping 1.24m vol from 15:45-15:50,
then 3.4m vol from 15:50-15:55.
(imo, profit-takers wanting to bank this 477 level as "high enough.")
this 4.54m vol selloff comprised
7.8% of SPY's total volume on the day!
then someone (imo, fund bots)
started buying heavily at 15:55 to stave off the plunge,
buying 9.18m (over $4m SPY dollar value)
in new inventory to prop SPY up
and maintain SPY close above the open
for a slightly green doji for the day,
avoiding a bearish red inverted hammer candle on the day.
that 9.2m vol in final 5min
was 15.4% of SPY's total 59.3m volume today.
nutshell, imo, fund mgrs have worked hard
and overleveraged their portfolios
to pump SPY 16% higher the past 2 months
for annual ROI window-dressing
for for 2024 client marketing promotions.
per the josh brown quote on cnbc:
"this isn't a santa claus rally,
this is a keep your hedge fund job rally."
and they are willing pump in more money
to not blow their hard-won ROI figures
on the final day of the year (tmrw).
based on that thesis,
i'm guessing we see SPY gap over 477 tmrw at open
with sustained bot support to maintain at least 477 into close tmrw,
ie: the level they anted millions to preserve today.
if sellers don't dump tmrw,
they might make a strident bot push for SPY 480 or such
as they did this week to get to 477,
but prolly be happy with closing anywhere above 477 for the year.
because they can...
then...
as has happened in prior years,
i expect fund mgrs will shift gears next week,
having booked their 2023 ROI figures for 2024 client marketing,
and unload their >102.7% overleveraged positions
(likely over 103% after today's EOD save)
https://www.naaim.org/programs/naaim-exposure-index/
wouldn't surprise me if the fund mgrs
also have SPY and other puts in place for next week or two
to boost their return when they unload overbought inventory in early jan.
note that SPY jan5 open interest EOD today
shows far more jan5 puts held than jan5 calls
on either side of current 477 price level.
(2nd image inlined below)
let's see how that changes tmrw afternoon.
.
SPY high vol rescue end of day:
SPY jan5 put vs call open interest EOD today:
re: their bridge network went down
doesn't inspire confidence that a broker as large as schwab
doesn't have sufficient redundant load-sharing bridges
to reroute packets if one bridge crashes.
re: filled twice. So I sold 20 extra contracts at the higher prices
wow. glad you were able to profit on the mistake! 💪🏆
re: 20% correction coming in q1?
no way to predict that
unless you lunch with jamie dimon or such.
funds were overleveraged in late july
when SPY was at 455-460.
funds are overleveraged again this week,
pumping for ROI figures (imo) at SPY 477 level.
(chart inlined at end of post)
i suspect funds will rebalance in early jan
(ie: starting next week)
as they did in august/sept.
and, logically,
it would make sense for fund mgrs to induce a retail panic sell-off,
so they can let the panic spiral as it will
and reload much lower before they bot march back upwards
as (hopefully) the fomc starts lowering interest rates in march 2024 onward.
but that's all speculation,
amid many other factors.
fomc might decide to ratchet up interest rates again in Q1
if they aren't happy with inflation chaos.
opec might call for another reduction in production
to jack up gas prices again next spring/summer into usa election
to make biden look bad again, as they did this past year.
and, the mother of all concerns,
with russia-ally iran vowing revenge
for israel's assassination of mousavi,
amid ongoing iran-backed houthis firing missiles
at commercial shipping vessels
as well as usa warships,
ww3 could break out at any time now.
presumably, markets wouldn't rally on ww3 news?
grimly, if ww3 does erupt,
with putin already threatening nuclear retaliation
for western support of ukraine,
the price level of SPY might be the least of our concerns...
for now, i'm just looking at next week
as a possible market tumble
once the fund mgrs take their feet off the bot gas pedals
and redistribute their currently overleveraged inventories
to rebalance their portfolios.
and given that ww3 concern,
they might dump in earnest over the next couple weeks,
to avoid getting caught deeply invested in a plunging ww3 crash,
letting markets freefall to much lower levels
where they could reload much cheaper
depending on the geopolitical tensions at that time.
time will tell how the economic cookie crumbles.
bites when your broker is wedged.😡
did schwab have a reasonable explanation?
glad you were able to exit with a positive gain!
re: I am quite reasonably confident that the float here is locked up
and you're not concerned about the 5x increase in AS/OS coming with the RS?
nor the documented $50k convertible debt which is due feb 8th,
which is currently 10% of MIKP's market cap @ 0002.
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1550222/000118518523000902/ex_563523.htm
meaning on feb 8th,
neville will be able to force dilution
of a significant percentage of the current OS,
unless mark manages to come up with $50k over the next 6 weeks
or can significantly raise the share price via compelling credible news
of progress on production plans
to minimize the percent of the dilution.
do you think neville will hold all those shares once he has them?
and post-RS, mark will be able to dilute 10x the current OS,
and might do so to pay off the $50k toxic debt to neville,
as well as to keep the lights on, given mark is so broke
he can't even pay back a 4-figure personal loan from a year ago?
how can the float be "locked up" given both those concerns?
.
re: and this chart/stock is primed for a sustainable and significant breakout.
fwiw, i do see potential if mark can follow-thru on production of the current IPs.
which is why i'm still here, and still holding ~$60m shares.
but that remains a big if,
given mark has crashed the proverbial IP car
on every venture prior.
and it also hinges on mark not diluting to oblivion
shareholder stake in any production success,
as he did in 2012.
to be clear, i do see potential in this gamble,
which is why i'm still holding.
i just think you're overly optimistic
and haven't thought through the entire landscape here.
that said, you're clearly committed to the gamble,
so i do wish you good luck on it,
and i'm hoping for a payoff here, too,
after a decade+ of chronic disappointments.
re: CONSOL BEFORE JAN LIFT OF.F.
what evidence do you see that the steep rallies we've seen
will continue next week?
with fund mgrs now overleveraged,
seems likely they will want to unload next week
once their 2023 annual ROI data are booked?
who will compete with fund mgr dumping
to push SPY higher?
anything's possible in markets.
just seems unlikely given the fund mgr positions?
note the SPY selloff august-october
after fund mgrs were overleveraged in july:
from a trading friend who tracks CNBC:
josh brown:
"this isn't a santa clause rally,
this is a keep your hedge fund job rally."
apparently, fund ROIs were down before october.
so they've been pulling out all the stops last couple months
to boost their annual ROI numbers before EOD tmrw.
the NAAIM exposure data i posted before reinforces this notion.
funds are now 102.71% invested, as of yesterday,
up from 97.3% last wednesday.
https://www.naaim.org/programs/naaim-exposure-index/
[[ 200% Leveraged Short
100% Fully Short
0% (100% Cash or Hedged to Market Neutral)
100% Fully Invested
200% Leveraged Long ]]
meaning, fund mgrs are now overleveraged.
which suggests they will want to unload equities to rebalance next week
once the fund 2023 ROI data are booked EOD tmrw.
meaning, next week we could see some heady SPY tumbles
for solid put scalping if we're nimble.
hopefully, i'll have time to trade next week, myself!
this week (as of yesterday):
last week:
ttmm, re: Oh boy dumping on the .0002s
only $560 dollar volume thus far.
and only two 7-figure lot trades.
that said, wouldn't surprise me
to see a slew of tax-loss dumping today and tmrw
as people wary of post-RS dilution
offset tax gains on other ventures.
N4, re: Well, Anakin Skywalker was able to do it......
iirc, anakin was a fictional character
imbued with miraculous superhero powers,
scripted to win against all odds
for an audience "feel good" victory moment?
but i might be misremembering... 😉
if only the force were as strong in mark
we'd have a dozen successful films in our catalog by now. 😉
nice to see you're still lurking here.
tho, perhaps only due to curiosity
about the ongoing train wreck? 😉