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fwiw, got some SPY 469p @ 0.30.
everything stalling at R now,
with UVXY finding some footing.
if the bots don't punch higher soon,
i suspect we'll see a retrace before lunch.
consumer credit report 3pm ET today.
i'm assuming it will jump higher
from holiday shopping on credit.
might gut punch markets when it comes.
if so, possible EOD exp put scalp opp.
time will tell...
boom. SPY new HOD.
punched above dsma20 (470.5).
tech SPY components all still feel toppy to me.
but given punch about dsma20,
maybe they just bot manip higher today?
closed SPY 471c @ 0.47 from 0.20.
might go higher
but feeling toppy across all techs.
(AAPL, MSFT, NVDA, AMD, MU, ...)
just checking chart again now.
looks like you got a nice opening rally on your calls.
but SPY selling off since the news that
anticipated march interest rate decrease
might not happen, due to positive jobs reports?
SPY back down to opening level now.
could go either way from here.
just gotta play it as it comes.
hopefully, you scalped both the up and the down this morning?
fwiw, SPY/ES futs rallied steeply back up last couple hours
SPY now back to closing levels at open.
seems the powers that be might want to avoid plunging near-term after all?
time will tell...
ES futs continued lower last night.
per naaim posts last week, it makes sense
that funds are rebalancing their overbought positions this week,
after 2023 EOY ROI window dressing.
but i though yesterday might be a sideways or up day
to allow them to continue distributing at higher prices.
from yesterday's selloff and overnight continuation,
seems funds are eager to rebalance asap?
maybe due to concerns of ww3 breaking out any day.
or maybe simply a machiavellian strategy
of punching markets lower as they distribute
to induce panic-selling plunges,
so they can reload at lower levels later?
will be interesting to see what happens today.
normally, i'd expect a bounce today.
but if the funds dump into the close today
then the machiavellian strategy may be their plan?
time will tell.
spartex, great that you were able to cash out before the selloffs.
you can reload when markets find support again.
i was thinking we might see a bit of rally today,
but evidently, funds et alia still had more to unload.
maybe more tmrw, too?
new naaim fund exposure data should be out tmrw afternoon.
yeah, my lotto play went the wrong way.
instead of a high-volume rally in to close,
ended up being a high-volume dump. 😉
SPY 468p ran 5x in 6 minutes.
0.12 @ 15:45
0.73 @ 15:51
UVXY rallied into the close.
could def get ugly tmrw.
or they could gap up and bot run higher,
because they can... 😉
time will tell.
hope springs eternal.
mark should hire you to do PR for him.
you're far more articulate than cornerstone ever was.
as for how it plays out,
if mark can follow-through on the tweets
and get production rolling on a couple projects
before doing the RS,
then, fwiw, i agree with your basic logic.
i just see both sides of the risk here.
and, imo, the potential downside greatly increased
when mark announced the RS
and 5x dilution ceiling overhead.
as ever,
i honestly hope your instincts are correct here.
for my part, i'll believe it when i see it.
btw, re: "12 year base breakout,"
did you know MIKP was in limbo on the gray sheets
since getting booted in 2012,
only returning to pinks again this past summer.
so the decade prior to 2023
was effectively cold storage for this ticker,
during which time, mark didn't do anything productive
with the IPs he had optioned over that decade.
hopefully, you're right
that he finds his footing this round
and actually does something with the new IPs. 🤞
time will tell...
fwiw, looks like another possible SPY end-of-day bounce setting up?
got some cheap lotto 470c @ 0.05, just for kicks.
per naaim data, funds were overleveraged in equities last week.
maybe they dumped t-note inventory to buy up stocks
for their desperate year-end ROI window-dressing?
re: JP morgan ATH,
banks are raking it in with high interest rates
on record high consumer credit debt.
no doubt more great 10Qs for banks ahead.
because they can...
wary of UVXY shifting flat, now slightly upward.
bailed on SPY 470c @ 0.27 for tiny gain
but more peace of mind,
pending confirmation of SPY buy momo.
thinking the same, given UVXY weakness,
as SPY 5min macd/awe shift upward.
even AAPL is rallying now, for a change...
got SPY 470c @ 0.25
UVXY rallying on volume
as SPY breaks under S.
not going to risk puts now
but they would have been profitable from the HOD.
SPY 470p up 3x since the peak.
TT, thx for the link!
apologies if you've already explained in detail.
i've only recently rejoined this board
after many years out of the markets
due to home dementia care.
i'll check your links after market close. :)
possible next call setup now.
SPY 1min finding S @ 468.4
while UVXY bull flag sagging.
watching for a bit more conviction of SPY S
before pulling the trigger.
care to elaborate on the systems you use?
posting S/R lines without reasoning behind them
doesn't help anyone grok your approach.
feeling like the momo stalling now
SPY 5min macd/awe fading as UVXY flattens.
going to close SPY & AMD calls on an uptick
to lock in the double
and wait for next setup.
the key is discerning the signposts
from the false flags / headfakes. 😉
fwiw, SPY 471c @ 0.30 on the pullback
SPY new HOD
fishing for calls on next dip...
mod, i'm still waiting for a clearer signal.
but it does feel like SPY wants to rally this morning.
time will tell.
in the meantime, your 468c are already up a bit.
nice entry!
ttmm, RS could come any time.
it's already been announced, so mark can execute it whenever he's ready.
as for dilution, we can only wait and see.
and hope that 2012 doesn't repeat.
MoD, agreed. i was expecting a drop below 468 yesterday
but buyers were def present amid the selling.
we didn't see another 20m-volume rally in final 15 minutes,
but it could be the selloff didn't punch low enough to trigger that.
as for today, imo, no way to know what will happen.
SPY set to gap up slightly
and might run upwards today
egged on by bot manip.
or sellers might have pondered fomc hawkish tone
amid record usa consumer credit card debts
at painfully high interest rates
at a time when ever more usa citizens
are forced to live in their cars
because they can't afford rent. 😢
as ever,
imo, we just need to scalp the momo as we see it.
and not assume any direction until it manifests,
knowing both charts and headfakes
are consciously painted to try to trip us up.
2H2, i haven't drunk any kool-aid.
usa has been nearly constantly at war
somewhere around the world since the 1950s.
in no small part recently, due to oil titans demanding
usa military intervention to secure oil in foreign lands,
including vp, cheney, in the 00s,
and throughout the decades,
the steady flow of bribes from usa weapons manufacturers
to keep their revenues consistent.
that said, all the wars we've seen before
don't quality for ww3 in my book.
one key is in the literal moniker, "world."
ukraine has become a proxy war
with the west supplying ukraine,
and iran supplying russia,
but thus far, china, india, etc... have not been involved,
and only have political stakes in promoting stability of geoeconomics.
imo, actual ww3 will be a very different beast,
bringing usa back to the pre-1989 era
when we woke up each day
to the daily possibility of nuclear war.
time will tell how it plays out.
in the meantime, this is a SPY forum.
imo, the potential for ww3 is only relevant here
in context of the potential for markets to crash
if iran and usa start shooting at each other directly.
(vs iran shooting at usa via houthi rebels currently)
2H2, re: We’re in WW3. Praying time is over,
israel and gaza are def at war.
and the iran-backed houthis and hezbollah are piling on.
but, imo, it's not ww3 until usa and iran are forced to square off,
with russia stepping up to side with iran,
and putin no doubt threatening nuclear response
if usa attacks iranian soil, warships, etc...
hoping saner minds prevail on both sides.
but not overly hopeful given what we've seen thus far,
including israel taking out mousavi (iranian national) with airstrike in syria,
and israel hitting hamas leader in beirut (lebanon soil).
time will tell...
fwiw, closed 470p @ 1.06 from 0.25.
they're up to 1.50 now,
a couple minutes later,
but i didn't want to risk another
20m volume EOD rally
as we've seen too often recently.
nowwhat, fwiw, my $0.02:
i think we'll see continued weakness this week,
both as fund mgrs rebalance their overleveraged buying for 2023 ROI window-dressing
and due to the fomc hawkish sentiment today.
assuming ww3 doesn't break out... 🙏
once funds are rebalanced,
i expect we'll see renewed rallying,
and prolly a new SPY ATH (all-time-high) sometime in 2024.
mainly because they can.
(where "they" == fund bots)
but also because 2023 was clearly a bull market on paper
and bull years tend to continue for at least another year,
because, human psychology.
if ww3 breaks out,
then all [call] bets are off.
but in that case,
we'll all prolly have much more to worry about
than our portfolios. 😢
time will tell,
as it always does.
fwiw, got SPY 470p @ 0.25 as mini-rally stalled.
anticipating selloff into EOD
after fomc hawkish sentiment
amid ongoing downward slide,
$34t debt news,
and dxy rallying today
(often coupled with migration out of equities)
SPY rallying now.
this could be headfake,
late after sideways chop.
or it could be a bot powerplay
to try to overpower the fomc negative sentiment.
time will tell...
usa debt also hit $34t mark,
announced this morning:
https://www.cnn.com/2024/01/03/economy/us-national-debt-34-trillion/index.html
yep. report is hawkish.
i reopened some lotto SPY 468p @ 0.10 on the bounce.
super cheap and only 2 lower than current strike range.
imo, rally now is prolly headfake.
time will tell...
fomc sentiment hawkish.
watching for possible headfake upwards
to consider reentry of SPY puts.
edit: looks like SPY moving down out of the gate.
maybe no headfake today?
fomc sentiment in 10 min
may trump all parallel data.
we'll see by 14:30 ET
link for fomc minutes at 2pm ET:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy.htm
...all of which depends
on mark not diluting heavily post-RS
before he can post credible news of film production underway.
hope springs eternal... 🤞
key caveat is fomc minutes at 2pm ET today.
if dovish sentiment, eg: rate reduction in march or so,
then markets might rally into the close.
as before, i'll be watching for the headfake
over first 10-20min after 2pm,
then aim to scalp the resulting move.
fwiw, SPY just ticked under dsma20
new LOD @ 468.72
still holding puts til i see something different.
looks like SPY selloff resumed.
back down near LOD now
with UVXY tagging new HOD.
seems sellers overwhelming bots for now?
funds prolly still overleveraged today
given naaim 103% fund equity exposure last week?
everything on my console turning down now,
including MSFT, NVDA, META, NFLX
which all rallied this morning.
SPY new LOD now, as i type.