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SPY all-time-high ~480
which SPY might break by end of week
if CPI & jobs data (in pre tmrw) are bullish.
pay no attention to all-time-high consumer credit debt
at high interest rates for months to come
with ever more ameican citizens moving into their cars
because they can't afford rent, 😢
amid the ongoing risk of WW3 breaking out any random day. 💣
what could possibly go wrong?
SPY 500, baby!
because they can... 🤖
SPY plunged down to ~475.20 @ 15:50 ET
but bounced steeply into the close from there.
looks like prior 475 R is now S
despite SPY not respecting that notion
for most of the trading day...
anticipating bullish CPI tmrw
which could mean another decent rally day.
but we're nearly back to 480 ATH (all-time high) levels now,
so we might find some legacy R levels up to ~480.
thereafter would be blue-sky breakout
for the bots to manip higher at will.
esp if the fomc coos dovish into spring.
mod, great exit @ 0.58!
you were braver than i
and rewarded with nearly twice the price i got!
fwiw, the SPY rapid dump i was concerned about
started ~3pm ET.
447c bid down to 0.17 now
after 15min dump.
what was your exit on the 477c?
they ran to 0.64 a bit after i bailed at 0.32,
which makes sense TA-wise,
given the 5min bull flag @ ~476.8,
but i was too wary of another rapid dump
with theta erosion ramping into the close.
re: download the doc for you
is that a discord forum you posted it to?
fwiw, finally UVXY new LOD now.
UVXY 7.68 S held all day until now.
maybe a SPY boom into the close?
too risky for me after a long day waiting for upticks.
full sails for anyone still holding calls now!
TT, your long/short maps are great!
i read your links about your methodology of tracking open orders,
which makes good sense.
where do you get the raw data on open orders?
i grok the caveat of not knowing whether they are limit, stop, etc... orders.
but still great intel, which has played out in the charts
the past few days i've been tracking your "maps."
i note that you track the futures, ES, rather than ETF, SPY.
is that due to ES reflecting the underlying index,
vs than SPY reflecting trading based on the index?
i've been using ES charts to map to SPY intraday,
so the ES maps are fine.
just curious why you don't make SPY maps?
mod, you still holding 477c
for potential breakout higher from current bull flag?
if so, i'm rooting for you from the sidelines!
closed SPY 477c @ 0.32 from 0.18 avg.
SPY bull flag currently,
looks like it wants to soar higher.
but UVXY also painting green candles
so there could be another rug pull
and theta clock is ticking loudly now.
greedy, re: man I got faked out,
honestly, i think you made a smart move.
i held based on wispy signals of volume imbalance, etc...
but def looked ominous when you exited
and theta still killing call value gains
at this slow rally pace.
to point, SPY 477c bid is only 0.08 now,
lower than your exit at 0.09,
despite SPY retesting HOD.
AAPL, MSFT, AMZN, GOOG, META, etc...
all rallying now
with UVXY plunged back down to LOD.
looks like our calls might get bailed out.
but we need a strong rally soon
to outpace theta decay.
def wish i'd waited til 10am to trade today
as i usually do.
lesson relearned...
re: Same BS as yesterday, pure manipulation
yeah, def games being played
as with every day.
to be fair, SPY 475 level
is at the high target (short density)
of TT's chart for today.
so there's probably vested short interest (literally)
in keeping SPY from rallying high today?
the buy volume on spikes
has been higher than the sell volume on dumps
which may suggests the funds are short
and their bots are wearing the bear hat today?
if so, we're def playing with fire
betting against the casino.
bit of a dump on UVXY now (finally...)
so i'm still holding for a bit longer.
but our 477c are too far OTM
to hold comfortably past 2pm ET.
need to see a strong upward push soon
or i'll bail to cut losses
at risk of missing end-of-day
face-ripping rally to 480,
because they can...
fwiw, today is a great example
of why i usually wait until at least 10am
to open any SPY options.
the upward punch through 475 R on volume
seemed a compelling buy signal to me
so i jumped in early today.
but if i had waited til 10am,
i could have gotten 476c @ 0.20,
same as my initial entry for 477c,
and i'd been green currently
instead of red.
lesson relearned.
better to be a bit late to a rally
and enter on a pullback
than to buy into opening momo
that breaks down soon after.
seems prudent to avoid risk.
glad you were able to avg down to 0.11
to minimize your loss.
i'm on the brink of cutting my call losses, too.
still holding a bit longer only because
the breakout volume was higher
than the dump volume,
which has been occurring most of the day.
but theta is a growing factor now,
and UVXY is still rallying with SPY,
so if the bots don't punch higher soon,
i'll bail for a loss.
and maybe watch for an EOD rally or dump setup into close.
check the 5min candles of SPY
@ 13:00 and 13:05
on the breakout higher.
steep green buying candle
followed immediately by steep red selling candle.
buy vol nearly twice the sell vol,
so i'm still holding calls for now.
but UVXY rallying stronger now
as SPY declines.
seems a pitched battle
btwn bots and profit-takers today?
while i was typing last post,
SPY tagged new HOD (finally...)
but then immediately sells off
with a spike upward in UVXY?
i'm going to hold onto call a bit longer
given the new HOD tag.
but UVXY rally def unsettling...
fwiw, i was losing faith
in the casino's intent to rally today
around noon, and was looking to exit calls
to cut my losses.
SPY's been rallying upward since then
so i'm still holding all calls for now.
but UVXY has been rallying, too,
in parallel with SPY,
which is often a poor omen for SPY.
SPY back to HOD retest now.
maybe third time's a charm?
banks have been enjoying high interest rates
on record high consumer debt
which bumped up in december
per stats on higher credit card spending on 2023 xmas.
plus, any banks which invested in equity markets
got steep runs higher over the past couple months.
i'm guessing banks earnings will be solid for Q4.
and if they aren't, seems likely someone did creative financing
to hide their success amid high interest rates?
UVXY 7.68 S holding strong thus far.
if that breaks lower,
SPY might find some love.
another relatively low-vol dump now
with UVXY spiking upward.
let's see how the bots respond.
(or if they respond...)
AAPL, MSFT, AMZN, NVDA, GOOG, META
(top SPY components)
all rallying decently now.
hopefully SPY will follow...
re: I only wish I could buy this opportunity more aggressively.
what's preventing you from buying aggressively?
you've asserted this seems the best setup you see in the OTC.
if you believe it'll rally back above 0010 soon
then buying up all the 0004/0005 you can get
would seem prudent?
maybe you also have some hesitation
about how the RS and possible dilution
will play out?
SPY back above 475 now
on low-vol (prolly bot?) walkup.
a move to new HOD (475.34 currently)
could spark a new rally higher.
looks like 475 is SPY R again, for now.
if they punch back up above 475
we could see a nice run.
if no 475 break soon,
i'll prolly exit calls,
just to be safe,
and wait for next setup.
re: playn with house money,
always a good place to be. 💪
bigger pullback than i expected
after the 475 R smash.
looks like SPY components have found some footing now
and are trying to rally again
but UVXY sideways (not down)
as SPY rallies up a bit now.
bit wary that we all bought a big headfake this morning.
i usually aim to not open any new trades before 10am
on assumption that the first move is headfake,
as seems possible today.
the strong high-volume punch upward through 475
seemed a buy signal to me.
but, as such, also seems a perfect headfake (call bait)
before they pull the rug on calls.
time will tell...
added SPY 477c @ 0.15
on the pullback finding tentative S
seems we're riding the same trains this week.
let's see if SPY has another run in it today
after 3 big days.
the strong run above 475 R suggests so.
but might also be a headfake.
fwiw, SPY 477c @ 0.20.
475 has been stubborn R for SPY recently.
SPY open at 474.16 and punched upward thru that 475 R
in a single 5min candle.
because they can.
475 might now be S level.
we'll see...
nice work! i got derailed by elder care chaos,
so ended up stopping out at 0.75.
another great day for calls.
and 475 is def tough R.
tho, i'm sure they will punch through it one of these days.
because they can.
smart! playing wit the casino's money now.
i'll be there soon.
just waiting to see what happens with 475 R retest
with UVXY continues to tag new LODs.
SPY broke new HOD from bull flag again,
now retesting yesterday's R
with new UVXY new LODs
still holding all calls for now
but will be exiting some soon.
TT, thx for posting these.
they have been spot-on with the recent moves. 🏆️
fwiw, UVXY tagging new LODs
while SPY drifts sideways.
still holding all SPY calls for now.
def grok, "don't be greedy,"
esp when up over 3x.
i'll unload some to cover cost basis with profit
when i see UVXY finds some tangible S,
which hasn't happened yet.
SPY new HOD now.
train pulling out of the station.
thoughts on next R level?
474c train loaded.
we just need it to leave the station. 🤞
upside, UVXY still tagging lower lows
as SPY struggles with R (~474.8 now).
downside, we need SPY to break higher
before theta starts bleeding value.
yesterday, the rally stalled around 11am, too.
maybe a bit of lunchtime cnbc ces/tech pumping
will nudge SPY above 473?
for now, never can tell with bees...
fwiw, joined GreedyG with the 474c @ 0.23.
was watching to see the battle btwn SPY and UVXY play out before committing.
SPY found S at higher low,
UVXY found R at lower high,
with SPY 5min adx converging, while macd/awe shift upwards.
looks like SPY wants higher for now.
great trades, mod!!!
i got waylaid by domestic issues again
and missed the afternoon glory rally. 😢
my 471c tagged 3.67 near the close.
i bailed on them @ 0.47 from 0.20
when the morning rally stalled ~11:00 ET.
could have reentered at 0.36 soon after
as the retrace found quick S
and started rallying again, while UVXY sagged,
but i knew i wouldn't be able to watch closely
due to pressing distractions.
what an afternoon to miss!
i doubt i would have held on to the bull horns
for the entire 10x ride from 0.36,
but i suspect i would have gotten at least 5x or so,
given how smooth the rally was from there
with steady 5min 6/20 (ema6/ema20) gap thru the close.
tmrw should be interesting!
fwiw, closed SPY 469p @ 0.31 (from 0.30)
on UVXY 1min selloff.
SPY and its tech components still feel toppy to me
but not worth the risk after morning SPY strength.
mod, re: $472 close
def possible.
tho, as before, consumer credit @ 3pm
seems like higher from xmas shopping
with all credit debt at high interest rates currently.
which is theoretically bad for Q1 retail revenues next couple months
but maybe bullish if it makes the fomc relax a bit?
time will tell.
just scalping the chart as it comes.