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ttmm, re: over 20 business days since the filing, still no R/S,
mark had covid and took a while to recover,
then it was the holiday season.
per the recent filing,
mark seems very intent on proceeding with the RS,
so it'll prolly happen next month?
i hope those puts work out for you. 🤞
i suspect the fund mgrs are going to keep pumping everything higher into tmrw
to maximize their annual ROI data.
wouldn't surprise me if we see some steep profit-taking sell-offs next week
once the fund mgrs take their feet off the gas,
and redistribute inventory to retail.
time will tell...
SPY 477, because they can.
ie: fund mgrs bot-manipulating higher
to maximize window-dressing
for their annual ROI numbers...
perhaps a better analogy:
you make your living betting on car races.
for optimal success, do you just bet on the cars
you perceive to be fastest (ie: the optioned IPs)?
or do you also consider the track record of the drivers?
in this case, our driver has a decade+ track record
of crashing *every* car he's driven.
but that doesn't seem to matter to you.
you are asserting buoyant confidence
that he won't crash this time.
which i hope to be true.
but logically isn't a given.
to be clear,
i wouldn't be replying as such
if you weren't posturing such strong confidence
in this play amid the RS.
if you were posting that it seemed
a high-risk/potentially-high-reward gamble,
while also acknowledging the innate risks
in betting on a driver who's never won a race
in over a decade of trying,
then i'd agree with your perspective.
my concern is your relentless confidence
and your continued shrugging at the risk
of history repeating with post-RS dilution,
esp given the 5x AS/OS increase
which mark refuses to discuss,
while aggressively denying
the lived experience of people
who have tracked this driver's track record
for over a decade.
obviously, it's your money to gamble.
and it sounds like you have enough powder
to shrug off a total loss here
if 2012 RS debacle does repeat.
i simply feel compelled
to spotlight the risks here
and note that you are playing with fire
for others who might read your posts
and bet recklessly alongside you.
and, yes, given my logic outlined above,
i will still perceive you, and myself,
to be lucky if mark doesn't dilute
our current shares to oblivion
by next summer.
re: strong reason to believe this is a very good bet,
what exactly are your strong reasons?
thus far, iirc, you've stated:
1. "buy when everyone is negative."
which makes sense for tickers with a solid story
that are just going thru hard times.
but not necessarily with tickers
which might be setting up
to repeat disastrous history?
2. "IPs are profit-drivers."
which makes sense if the IPs are managed
by a strong dev team with a proven track record.
which, empirically, isn't what we have here.
mark has optioned decent IPs before,
and not managed to do anything with them.
as before, i remain cautiously optimistic
that mark will get his ducks in a row this time.
but, as before, i was more optimistic
that we shareholders would share in his success
before he announced the RS and 5x AS/OS increase,
esp given he keeps dodging questions
on the motivation for the 5x increase.
SPM, btw, imo, just ignore "just1."
he's a one-trick pony who has been posting the same nonsense for years
without contributing any rational analysis to the forum.
SPM, imo, what you're saying is:
horses are a great investment now
so i'm betting on this horse
even tho i haven't checked its teeth
and i am ignoring everyone
who has lived with the horse for over a decade.
again, i hope this gamble works out for you,
because that would mean
it will have worked out for the rest of us, too.
but if you win this bet,
imo, you will have been lucky,
not "good" at investing.
just my 2 cents...
SPM, re: 2. The selling is done,
selling is stagnant currently
because most holders are waiting to see:
1. whether mark can actually get production rolling next year.
2. whether mark dilutes heavily into the new 5x larger AS/OS share structure.
key bit is that both of the above are hopium psychologies
hinging on the hope that mark has "changed his stripes"
and won't repeat the blow-out of the prior post-RS dilution,
without succeeding in getting production rolling for the new IPs
to offer any price support amid dilution.
so i don't believe the RS is "priced in,"
as you assert.
i believe hopium is keeping us holding.
and if hopium is popped by post-RS dilution,
i fully expect sellers to dump into the bid
to cut their losses before their shares become worthless again
as happened with the prior RS.
as ever, i remain cautiously optimistic
that mark will get production rolling this round,
which is the primary reason i'm still holding.
but i'm far less confident that mark won't dilute,
given past experience
and the fact that mark is desperate for cashflow.
as before, i grok the speculative gamble you are making,
but i feel you are overly optimistic about the odds
that mark won't dilute post-RS,
and it seems irresponsible to me
to post such optimistic "watch and learn" posts
given the history and variables in play.
time will tell how it plays out.
good luck with your trading here.
as ever, i hope your optimism plays out.
many of us have been here for over a decade
and it'd be nice to see mark finally succeed.
MoD, fwiw, i don't think we'll see the sell-off start until next week.
logic: fund mgrs have worked hard to drive us up this high
and will want to keep markets as high as possible into friday close
to maximize their annual ROI data
to attract new clients next year.
per NAAIM chart, the funds are nearly all-in currently
but can still overleverage a bit to keep propping it up.
once they book their annual ROI data,
they will probably want to rebalance their portfolios,
unloading their overbought equities,
while also aiming to drive markets lower
so they can reload target 2024 positions at lower levels.
it's just a theory.
but we've seen this pattern before:
rally high into end of year
then sell off in january.
time will tell...
great intel spartex!
many factors in play.
my core thought remains that the recent steep rises
are primarily driven by fund mgrs seeking optimal annual ROI stats
for their 2024 marketing campaigns.
per the NAAIM chart,
seems the fund mgrs are nearly all-in currently.
and presumably will want to rebalance their portfolios next week
once they've locked in the ROI numbers.
https://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=173496293
QT, record consumer debt at high interest rates,
the ongoing risk of WW3 breaking out any day now,
ongoing risk of civil unrest within USA, etc...
are all compounding factors.
once the market tumbles a bit,
i do expect another bull rally
especially if the fomc does reduce interest rates next year.
but the fund mgrs are the whales in the casino.
and in the immediate, my sense if they are propping this up for ROI,
and then will dump starting next week
to rebalance and make markets tank lower
where they can buy back in cheaper towards 2024 ROI data.
time will tell how it plays out.
just speculation based on logic
and prior EOY patterns before.
digging a bit deeper,
the current NAAIM fund mgr investment index
suggests fund mgrs are currently 97.32% invested in equities.
which could explain why friday's attempt to "melt up"
mostly sputtered sideways.
ie: it's hard to rally when
nearly all the deep pockets
are nearly all-in.
of note, SPY is currently higher
that it was on july 26th
when fund mgrs were "fully invested"
and leveraged long @ 101.82%.
imo, this reinforces the notion that
SPY is currently artificially propped up
for fund annual ROI window-dressing
for 2024 marketing campaigns.
and suggests SPY will suffer in jan
when fund mgrs rebalance their portfolios.
i know some here will adamantly disagree
in vehement ALL CAPS.
everyone's mileage will vary.
[[ 200% Leveraged Short
100% Fully Short
0% (100% Cash or Hedged to Market Neutral)
100% Fully Invested
200% Leveraged Long ]]
https://www.naaim.org/programs/naaim-exposure-index/
JoeWo, re: why UVXY down a bunch but SPY not doing much,
SPY & UVXY have not behaved as usual all day.
fwiw, my theory below,
pasting earlier posts today:
--- Post #379,066
SPY and UVXY still rallying together.
seems a bot grind upwards
vs negative investor sentiment.
tho, in context of timing,
UVXY reflects 30-day SPY options
which is mid-jan at this point,
when heavy puts seem reasonable.
so this could just be a logical disconnect
given the inflection point of the new year.
--- Post #379,068
now SPY and UVXY both rolling over together in synch?
that seems odd.
as if SPY sagging now
somehow makes mid-jan SPY calls more attractive?
prolly just an odd coincidence?
--- Post #379,071
re: They are working in unison today
which they logically shouldn't.
but could just be the inflection point of the new year,
with SPY bots still driving upward for fund ROI window-dressing
while VIX reflects anticipation of post-window-dressing sell-off by mid-jan.
re: IT AIN'T GONNA WORK SHORTIES,
power11, i'm not a "shortie."
if you check my posting history,
you'll see i scalp both calls and puts
depending on what i see in the chart,
and i rarely hold overnight,
esp in this chaos, both market and wars.
and, fwiw,
preaching bull rallies every day
is just as pointless
as preaching bear plunges every day.
markets go up over the long haul
both due to economic expansion with population growth
and concerted manipulation to raise shareholder value.
but they don't go up every day,
as we saw two days ago,
when SPY OTM puts ran 50x-100x in a couple hours.
eg: those $473 lotto puts
MoD got weds for .03
that ran over 3.00 by the close.
and my 473p today were up >300%
while i was stuck distracted with other people's problems.
and, fwiw, SHOUTING in ALL CAPS
doesn't make anyone think you are more clever
nor more correct.
it just makes you look desperate to heard.
and what a diff 30min makes, again.
got pulled away from console again
and missed the bounce.
this is why i haven't been trading the past few weeks.
impossible to be nimble
when multiple people demand your attention all day.
still holding the 473p.
should have set a stop order
when i was up >300%.
looks like SPY might roll over again,
so going to let them ride a bit now
and try to check in more often over next hour...🤞
what a diff 30min makes.
SPY tanking now, tagging new LODs.
still holding 473p
which i had pretty much given up on 30min ago...
still a chance bots will kick in soon
to drive for a green close,
as they've done before.
time will tell...
or maybe SPY will just drift sideways
til the cows come home...
AAPL & MSFT both recovered and are rallying now.
SPY 5min shifting bullish now.
face-ripper rally into close seems more likely now.
AAPL & MSFT both selling off now.
SPY might follow soon
(AAPL + MSFT == 14% of SPY index)
def possible!
tho, UVXY is based on 30-day SPY options,
meaning, where SPY traders think market will be mid-jan.
so UVXY could be tanking on today's PCE numbers
anticipating more fed rate reductions next year.
and SPY 5min shows higher-volume red (selling) candles
than green (buying) candles since the 10:55 initial small plunge.
that said, bots can do whatever they want
when they all work in unison.
so face-ripper rally into xmas weekend def possible.
added SPY 473p @ 0.27
as the rally attempt stalled
caveat: UVXY in steady decline since 11:00 ET
but SPY and UVXY haven't been moving
in their usual opposition for most of the day.
to point, UVXY might be decline on the PCE news
anticipating interest rate reductions next year
while SPY might be suffering more profit-taking today.
time will tell...
fwiw, got some SPY 473p @ 0.42 on the weak bounce.
don't have much time to watch console today
but this looks like another plunge setting up
so rolling the dice on it being a steady fall
that doesn't need babysitting.
looks like the bottom could fall out again here?
SPY plunge, caught briefly, but weak rebound
re: They are working in unison today
which they logically shouldn't.
but could just be the inflection point of the new year,
with SPY bots still driving upward for fund ROI window-dressing
while VIX reflects anticipation of post-window-dressing sell-off by mid-jan.
now SPY and UVXY both rolling over together in synch?
that seems odd.
as if SPY sagging now
somehow makes mid-jan SPY calls more attractive?
prolly just an odd coincidence?
SPY and UVXY still rallying together.
seems a bot grind upwards
vs negative investor sentiment.
tho, in context of timing,
UVXY reflects 30-day SPY options
which is mid-jan at this point,
when heavy puts seem reasonable.
so this could just be a logical disconnect
given the inflection point of the new year.
spartex,
yeah, i wish i had time to trade currently.
some huge moves past couple weeks,
many of which were steady directional momo for easy trading.
hopefully more time in january...
in the meantime, glad your small caps are doing well!
i'm still anticipating a sell-off in early jan
after a couple months of ludicrous upward grinding.
but talk of lower interest rates,
assuming it continues,
should lift all boats into spring.
time will tell.
happy holidays in the meantime!
SPY and UVXY rallying together out of the gate.
UVXY usually wins that battle.
but bots clearly wanted SPY higher yesterday afternoon.
time will tell...
UVXY new LOD.
looks like the might rally into the close
then resume annual ROI window-dressing tmrw?
time will tell...
fwiw, SPY new LOD now
def agree in chart TA over guessing.
but, to point, the SPY chart shows ludicrously steep rallies
over the past couple months
which seem detached from the reality of current economic struggles.
and that suggests upward manipulation,
which seems likely due bot manip for higher fund ROI numbers,
which has been a common pattern over past many years.
aka: "santa rally"
so it seems precarious to me
to ignore those aspects of the charts
as well as prior year patterns
in favor of seeing what we expect to see.
thus my thought that anything could happen today.
that said, SPY tagging new LODs now,
so it does seem profit-taking is now winning today.
SPY new LOD, with UVXY rally.
bottom could fall out again here.
or could be headfake before bot rally.
never can tell with bees.
time will tell...
i'm still wary of fund buy bots.
UVXY 5min bull flag suggests selloff to come,
but never can tell with bees.
esp when 2024 marketing material is on the table
with the fund mgrs only needing to prop markets up
for 6 more trading days.
AAPL new LOD, with UVXY rallying,
which bodes well for your puts.
i'm still wary of fund buy bots forcing a rally today
to secure their hard-won ROI window-dressing.
UVXY new LOD.
i think the fund mgrs win for a bit.
time will tell whether their buy bots
can overwhelm profit-taking...
UVXY sagging after initial strength.
everything sideways for now, including VIX.
could go either way from here.
AAPL & MSFT selling off their initial surges
which is bearish for SPY.
just watching for now until there's a move
echoed by UVXY.
my guess is that fund mgrs win
using bot manip til end of next week
to book as strong ROIs as possible
for 2024 marketing material.
then, in first couple weeks of jan,
puts could be very profitable,
as they take their feet off the bot gas
so they can load up lower for 2024 ROI numbers.
key question seems:
who wins the rest of the week?
the fund mgrs who invested the effort in bot rallying into stratosphere
or the profit taking bears who think it's way to high
and will prolly continue selling even 5% lower than yesterday's close?
anyone know why the whole market tanked at ~14:20 ET?
i've been too busy to watch, so haven't tracked closely.
but don't see any obvious news to justify the dump.
maybe just algos finally giving up the pump?
boom! looks like you just made >100x in an hour.
after a profitable morning.
nice work!
lucky, actually, it's you who are confused.
or maybe just not parsing maronti's thought.
spelling it out:
MIKP current OS: ~2383m
MIKP post-RS OS: ~48m
if MIKP share price were $25 post-RS,
the market cap would be (48m * $25)
which would be ~$1.2b.
being what maronti posted,
with rounding of 48m to 50m.
to be clear, i don't expect MIKP market cap
to be worth more than $25m any time soon,
(aka: ~0.01 pre-split, 0.50 post-split)
and that valuation only achieved
if mark got production rolling on a film
and tweeted tangible evidence,
eg: production stills.
if mark signed a veteran director
and a strong cast to a project,
then we could rally higher on exuberance.
but for now, market cap remains under $1m
due to lack of tangible progress
and stigma of impending RS.
spartex, re: jan 2022,
fwiw, i suspect we'll see the same in a couple weeks
after the recent insane run-up,
which don't seem justified by econ / interest rate data.
seems like typical end-of-year fund ROI window dressing
for their 2024 marketing campaigns,
but on steroids this year.
also, most of the 2023 index gains have been from ~7 tech stocks,
not a broad market rally.
which suggests a lot of hopium underneath SPY?
on that notion, i suspect we'll see some selloffs early jan
as the fund mgrs take their foot off the rally gas
before finding footing again.
only time will tell.
fomc remains the wildcard in the mix.