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Agreed. Similar to ASCO 2018, they didn't fill in the blanks and reserve the theater until the publication came out. We are a little close for PR about tomorrow, IMO.
It is my belief that their plan was to PR the topline in late August after the refresh was complete. If long tail continued from last year's data I believe they would release, talk about data lock and full unblinded release by November. But, tick tock, Bosch presents tomorrow. If he is a no-show that would tell me they are delaying again after spring refresh.
Still no detail under Dr. Bosch's name for Immuno-oncology presentation. All five other speakers tomorrow at the same learning dinner have a description of the company they represent and the topics they will highlight. nothing for Bosch. I hope he is not a no-show.
And yet we sit at .21. Every one of those headlines seems positive regarding a new brain cancer treatment. Something just isn't right. Makes no sense. The company is closer than ever to topline with preliminary blinded data looking good. Why wouldn't this be worth $1 billion at least, which would put us at over a $1, warrants would be exercised, new trials funded, etc......
Even the Bosch presentation is "blinded." each of the other speakers at this presentation dinner has a write-up on what they will discuss and what their company does.
Bosch, Nothing: 8:35 Clinical Development of Dendritic Cell-Based Immunotherapies for Cancer. Marnix Bosch, PhD, Chief Technical Officer, Northwest Biotherapeutics
I believe Duke, and Dr. Friedman, are all about the polio immunotherapy derivative. Dr. friedman managed my brother's GBM treatment to no avail. Unfortunately he could not qualify for any of the trials at the time five years ago.
If we do not see news this week I will be shocked. Way too many PR-able events to not say something. NICE, Bosch, New trial supposed to start recruiting next week, no money.....Not to mention passing one of the 36 month timelines some believe will allow topline release. If no news this week, I believe we drop in PPS again.
Doesn't look like it and it bounced down from the .225 50-day area. Would need volume to get through that. Or Frickin good news for a change. IMO.
Definitely some buying coming in today. But strange that the ask is moving up with so little volume...not a lot of selling? If we get to 3+ million shares today I would be inclined to say we are close to news of some kind. We haven't had over 3 million shares traded since July 2nd.
I can only laugh when Tom Petty "The Waiting" comes on my radio....it is the hardest part.
I don't think any investigation prevents it, but the purchaser would have to do DD on what is being investigated. In all likelihood an investigation of this sort would go away with a BO as LP (and Co.) would be out of the picture.
Sojo55, it appears to me that the first resistance will be the 50 day at .225, is that what you see? We are creeping towards that but decent news and volume would blow us through that.
BO would be great, but I think unlikely before (at least) topline released. Wouldn't make much sense IMO since it could leave a lot of money on the table doing it prior to a great data release. On the contrary, if we were to see a BO now, it would tell me that they are not confident in the data and think that a larger entity could invest in taking this technology and science in a new direction.
I'm seeing last trade at 9:33....strange. But, we are six trading days from the end of August.Three trading days before Bosch supposed to speak. 6 trading days before new trial supposed to start enrolling. Something has to be announced IMO...
Yep, I am actually getting pretty angry. Not because I want to force the company to end the current trial but because I think it is reckless and terrible attorney-like behavior to not communicate. Like keeping loyal investors up to date (good, bad or indifferent) could be a negative? Look what the current game plan has done to the stock? How could issuing PR's on a regular basis make it any worse? I suppose it could go to zero if the news is bad but it looks like it has a chance so SAY SOMETHING! i'd be screaming from the rooftops! It could possibly be the best new cancer treatment in a generation.
I'm curious why this study popped up and why these particular cancers were chosen. Similarity in tumor type? Also, why so small a group? 24 total, 10 expected initially? "Approximately 10 patients with injectable metastatic brain tumors will be enrolled initially in a dose escalation scheme, with the expectation to enroll a total of 24 patients." There must be some confidence or evidence that DCVAX-Direct will have a positive effect, especially given the knowledge base of the lead investigator must have being so close to the current phase 3 trial, IMO.
There you go Scotty. Gained .21 back....
in my opinion, with Bosch scheduled for next Wed, any good PR firm would have multiple releases up to that date telling a story and a plan. It would start this week with at least two follow ups before Wednesday. Topline and lock announcement tuesday, then thursday a pr on likely unblinding timing plan for November, and next Monday a description of what Bosch will say on Wednesday. Each of these would have as much as legally possible about their thoughts on the success of the data.
Still waiting?
very cryptic...."based on what you know."
Lots of twitter banter by Chris L stating he doesn't believe we will see another dilution prior to data lock. Here is my thought (guess) on where we are:
1. If LP is truly going to lock this month and release topline data, then it would not be an arms-length transaction for LP to lend more money at this share price if positive data is in hand.
2. Conversely, I believe if we do see another small, LP-based investment of any kind, data lock is not imminent, and will likely be pushed out to the end of the year as some have speculated. Which would also mean they have seen the 2018 spring refresh numbers and and they are not compelling enough to lock and release topline.
Ok, what i am trying to say is that the blinded data released this year, has not been deemed a failure or success. Only because we don't know the subgroups yet. Several, more educated on the science here, have laid out their charts of the expected breakout of placebo, treatment and crossover that support a successful trial. I happen to believe, based on those analyses, that we will be successful. I believe we will find out that the "predetermined primary endpoint" is irrelevant based on the hold and potential revision of the trial. So, while the expectation of clinical trials is over 90% failure rate, the "preponderance of evidence" starts out skewed in the negative favor. shorts and negative posters thrive on this and make a lot of money until the facts come out, usually 90% in their favor. Based on the blinded data, factual success stories you can read on social media of real life survivors, i don't think it it is irrational. As far as having attorneys run a public company and be in control of the communications? stupid.
I disagree. While the management of the company is letting shareholders down, the science and data are still valid, as we know today. Suggestion of sitting on data, hiding information is illegal for a public company as you know, so pure nonsense. I cannot recall a date the company stated would be the a "deadline" release date? Yes, the stock price is down, yes I believe there are a lot of people working against this company, not all as vocal as fudstein. So, your term "not equally valid"? Really, when two people are expressing personal point of view? yours is more valid? When the information we are debated is not public yet, your opinion is more valid? Nice try.
agreed, i see it on etrade as well. good early volume considering the past few weeks. Appears to be a battle to keep it below .22 but I also agree it will take millions of shares to pop through.
Therein lies the frustration. Lather, rinse, repeat on a silence strategy that has not worked, is not working, and allows the negative speculators to win over the potential of the trial and the science. If LP feels there is potential liability in speaking positively on potential results and timing of the unblinding then she needs to realize the far greater liability of potential shareholder lawsuits for mismanagement. IMO.
It is ridiculous in this day and age to have a website down for 48 hours. Actually, almost impossible given the way data centers redirect when there are issues. Even so, with all the uncertainty surrounding the company, I believe it warrants a PR to explain. If my company has an outage, a notice is sent immediately. In this case, as a publicly traded company, this could cause speculation and price movement which warrants explanation.
Agreed, I think we are there. May have to fight the numbers based on changes, but the public outcry would be loud if the damn stuff works but not approved....I would unblind now.
I am on the other side of this. I believe they HAD to do a crossover from placebo based on the positive results they were seeing, and it would have been inhumane not to. But, since the trial was constructed to show a difference between the two groups, they had to extend to show the separation on long tail. I also believe that there had to be agreements or understanding with trial regulators that if they allowed crossover, and it hurt the trial results because of the crossover, there would have to be consideration.
Hopefully they are redesigning the website to include the new parent company logo...Pfizer
I, unlike you two, believe the interim blinded data was great. And, by following the posts those far more versed in this treatment than me, I believe we are almost there. I have no positives to say about management, other than they must be following a plan. Linda powers, whether you like her or not, is not stupid. And, whether you trust her or not and think she is only interested in cashing herself out, we still benefit when that happens. So, yes, if there were ever a time to buy, now is the time, IMO.
Nice. I will likely add more early next week. IMO, there is a higher probability for good news vs. bad, so i will take a chance and add, then wait. It seems impossible to me to get through the middle of August without news. NICE, 10-Q, financing, Unblinding, or a combination of those. September 1st is the new combo trial start date, which I believe, was postponed due to either unblinding or partnership. In other words, why would you start a combo trial with a big pharma company when you are negotiating with another? Or, if you are the big pharma company partnering on the combo trial, why start it if you plan to roll that company in.
Speculation for next week. Another small financing announced followed by announcement that trial will be unblinded based on spring refresh. Buying AND selling has all but dried up. Everyone sitting on their hands waiting for an update. If correct, PPS will creep up starting mid-week.
My gut tells me August will be a big month for news. 36 months from enrollment, need financing, NICE, 10-Q due. Right to Try...maybe they have been so inundated with requests that the FDA will step in. I don't know but it is also quiet on he twitter front (Chris L, Bigger, etc.). GLTA
Phenomenal article. This is the stuff that keeps me invested. Real world results vs. hundreds of daily FUDster comments. If this type of news gets more traction...not numbers, not %'s, but people living...we win. IMO.
Well, there is no doubt that this is all coming to a head in the next two weeks. The last 10-Q was filed 5-16-18, so that has to come out. There MUST be (IMO) another financing done or in the works so they survive...and some believe we get data lock on the 18th. I would guess if there is anything positive on the way, we will see the stock run prior to the middle of the month. Not a small uptick in anticipation, but an actual run to highs of the year or more.
Chris Lacoursiere prediction is still for mid August, from tweet today:
P3 final data lock ?? 8/18 IMO
Agreed, Sojo....when i look at the last three attempts to breakout and it got knocked down, it is wound very tight in a narrow range with a lot of upside on any potential breakout. This, combined with ANY positive news would be a run, IMO.
The quote in that article is specific!
"DCVax has recently been approved by the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) as an immunotherapeutic agent; its promising clinical outcome has been reported in phase 3 trials for treatment of glioblastoma multiforme. Provenge (sipuleucel-T), the other FDA-approved DC vaccine, has been adopted in treatment of progressive prostate cancer resulting in prolonged survival."
I could have sworn I saw a post from Chris2125 earlier, who used to be chris1225 (Chris L?)...was this his that was deleted?
Message 142244937 is deleted.
Interesting if it pertains to a merger or "business dealings" that would delay a start to the trial. Not interesting if they just do not have the money to start it....