Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
Answer is simple. When Google settings are turned on to only show results for Anavex with a negative tint to them, this is what your left with when educating yourself on the company. I rarely use Google for my investment advice so I lean towards your train of thought.
Paper trades are always winners!
I’m sure you will buy at the very bottom and sell at the very top in the next surge! Only way to get cash money is to be right 100% of the time on 100% of the trades. I’ve never seen anything like it actually. Quite the Oracle.
Sounds like an Amateur take.
That’s irrelevant to nonshareholders. Go tee it up!
It’s a shame having to watch all the fun from the sidelines ehhh?!?
Nothing to see here. No money being made. Move along!
We are years ahead of SAVA with a better molecule but I’ll wait to see what the GOOGLE DR. comes up with. I’m going to go out on a limb and say the Google search returns a negative biased statement! Eye roll!
And thank you DADO for KEEPING us in this company with all of your amazing insights over the years!
Disappear:
- cease to be visible
-cease to exist or be in use
- be lost or go missing; become impossible to find.
Feel free to choose any of the 3 to describe The absence of Clay.
When one is all knowing AVXL, easy mistakes are often overlooked.
Same old same old would be selling after a 10 cent bounce in the $2’s and $3’s would it not? Seems to me we have never really seen constant price action like this at these levels. But what do I know, I just state the facts I’ve witnessed the last 5 years.
There has been no major side effects of the pediatric trial thus far. There are many forums online disclosing such from the parents themselves.
My positions in the $1’s and $2’s are looking even more BEAUTIFUL!!! BABY!!
There is. Conference in a few weeks, maybe the entirety of the data will be released then.
Let GOOGLE take a few days to refresh the current AVXL data and the facts will play out. End points were met and the data was great, today was a great confirmation to one’s investment.
You’re welcome. But...No, thank you and Tom for your amazing TA over the years, it has benefited me multiple times. If I’m mistaken, my apologies but I believe I trade a bit around my core as you guys do, just not as frequent. The story of AVXL is quite easy to get overly exuberant, you guys are a breath of fresh air removing yourself emotions and speaking on exactly what you see. Nothing surprises me anymore with this stock yet today’s extent was unexpected to that extreme even for a cynical investor as myself. If you’re a trader, the last week was a blessing. If you hold long shares, today was a blessing as well. As cliche as it sounds, AVXL will just require even more patience. The rest of the PDD data and peer reviewed article plus the Rett Data should bode well for the next few months and going forward. As usual though, expect another steady/rapid rise into the release then its anyone’s guess. The main reason I hold such a large core opposed to trading larger blocks is that one of these days there won’t be a slam down after good news of great science and data, it’ll be a point of no return. Until then it’s the million dollar question. Longs stay frustrated as traders and shorts rejoice! Thanks again for all of yalls chart work!
“THE GOOGLE DOC”, while knowledgeable yes, always has a negative slant that is not completely honest. Here is a more accurate breakdown of today’s slides from a post on the board incase you didn’t see it:
This write-up serves as an overview for Anavex's PDD results from 6 Nov 2020. Included I mention aspects of the slide presentation that I believe may be currently overlooked by investors and hope to provide some context while you read along.
Slide 11: Even in the subtitle Anavex couldn't help but mention use of their 'oral capsules'. As we know, this is the least invasive method of providing a drug and does not require any specialized equipment or hospital visits. Notice under 'key primary and secondary endpoints' the motor endpoints to include the most titillating actigraphy monitoring. I will briefly mention significance on this later.
Slide 15: Some have already gone online to tout the presentation as absurd due to 'cherry-picking', at first glance it would be easy to confuse retail investors with this statement. On slide 15 we see an overarching view of ALL patients (SIGMA 1 carriers, non-carriers, placebo, 30-mg, 50-mg) and the results of the Episodic Memory count. You will notice that as a whole, the placebo group declined from baseline over the time period. Its now important to carefully distinguish between the 30-mg and 50-mg effects.
- the 30-mg DECREASES NEGATIVE score in episodic events. Basically, 30-mg in the entire patient population virtually halted decline.
- the 50-mg INCREASES POSITIVE score in episodic events. The entire 50-mg patient population IMPROVED as a whole over baseline. From placebo to 50-mg means, the improvement is a whopping 202%.
Slide 16 suggests that the PDD trial and MCI-AD diagnostic facets are all directly comparable. That is to say, you can expect the phase 2/3 AD trial to have similar results to the PDD cognitive data. I will talk about this a bit more in a moment.
Slide 17 is really interesting. In slide 17, they begin cherry picking the patient subgroups (total population [132] on the left and SIGMAR1 WT carriers on the right [87]). Notice blue bars specifically on this slide. Most significantly, notice how the week 14 blue bar on the left (66%) is increased in the WT populations week 14 blue bar on the right (74%). This implies that by week 14, the SIGMAR1 WT carriers had an 8% greater benefit over non-carriers. Notice the same blue bars for week 8, there is only a 2% difference there. This is proving two things: the benefit of being a carrier INCREASES AS TIME GOES ON and that there is a noticeable difference between SIGMAR1 carriers and non-carriers to begin with. This validates previous trial data and I am VERY interested to see if this effect (2 to 8%) increases even more in the continuation study.
Slide 18 shows as a whole, SIGMAR1 WT carriers on the drug had a statistically significant (0.05%)improvement over placebo for episodic memory counts. In fact, the improvement noted virtually ceased decline as is evidenced by a 600% reduction... notice that this increase is for mean population, and that some SIGMAR1 carriers actually improved... as was similar in the 32-patient AD study.
Slide 19 and 20 should be looked at as a combination. On slide 19 you can see how minimally complex tasks and complex tasks are accomplished (by time in seconds) for four subgroups. These groups are the young, the old, Parkinson's patients, and Alzheimer patients. Once again, Anavex couldn't help themselves to a big circle and a gigantic box noting an unmet need in Parkinson and Alzheimer's. See how much longer it takes for these diseased minds to accomplish tasks. Slide 20 is where things really heat up (note that slide 20 is in milliseconds and I convert them to seconds to compare to slide 19). This shows two charts comparing SIGMAR1 WT carrier reaction time to placebo groups in two separate reaction time tests. On the left you have the 'choice reaction time' and on the right you have the 'digital vigilance reaction time'. It is important to recognize that slide 19's data is based on 'choice reaction time', so the left chart is 100% comparable.
- Left chart: decline of 5 seconds from baseline for SIGMAR-1 dosed groups, and a nearly 29 second decline from baseline for placebo group. This constitutes a huge 474% reduction in decline. You also see that some patients with SIGMAR1 WT reversed effects and improved, not just reduced decline.
- Right chart: decline of 0.00551 seconds from baseline for SIGMAR-1 dosed groups, and a 0.05054 decline from baseline for placebo group. This constitutes an ASTOUNDING 818% reduction in decline. Likewise, you see that some SIGMAR1 WT reversed effects and improved, not just reduced decline. And they accomplished this with an EXTREMELY significant effect of 0.008%
Slide 21 is significant of course because it details effects on sleep. Despite a marginally significant improvement of 0.054%, it is important to look at other Anavex 2-73 studies (AD study, Rett studies, preclinical), and you see that sleep is very clearly aided by Anavex 2-73. What strikes me as interesting is the mention of REM sleep. This is the portion of sleep where you dream, and is also known to be the sleep needed in healing.
Slide 22 alludes to penetration of the blood brain barrier (BBB) with bullet 3. It is interesting that bullet 2's dropout stats are virtually the same for both the active cohort and the placebo cohort. This, combined with bullet 1, indicates that patients from both cohorts likely dropped out for reasons completely separate to the actual dosing. Parkinson disease dementia is rough on these individuals and COVID-19 likely exacerbated a lot of issues endured by these patients. One that comes to mind is depression. I am very interested to see quality of life data on these patients.
Slide 24's 3rd bullet is of interest. Again, Anavex mentions that PDD outcomes will likely be similar or at least comparable from PDD - AD studies. We actually see this throughout the presentation, I will make a closing remark encompassing that thought.
Slide 25 in the first bullet mentions 'PDD/PD'. Isn't it interesting that they included PD. PD of course focuses more on the motor functionality of the disease. It seems to me that the endpoints located in bullet 3 (MDS-UPDRS and actigraphy) have ALREADY shown to researchers a clear improvement to motor impairment, which prompted funders (MJFF and SIUF) as well as regulators/trial initiators to branch out to a PDD/PD trial. "DATA WILL BE SUBMITTED TO THE U.S. FOOD AND DRUG ADMINISTRATION TO SEEK REGULATORY GUIDANCE'. Isn't it interesting that the PDD PR in October made use of buzzwords and sensory language found in the TGA PA guidance and the FDA AA guidance? I will let you make your own assumption here, but it is my opinion that Anavex is at least SEEKING accelerated approval. The SIUF PR not mentioned an actual PD trial phase number (3 vs. 4) seems to lead credence to that. Note that accelerated approval does not need to be granted and the next trial could very well be a phase 3. Make your own assumption, do your own DD.
As a final note, take a look at slide 30 (old 32-patient AD data). Look at how the green lined super responders barely decline and in fact, some improve. Now go back up and look at slides 15, 18, and 20. Do you notice a striking similarity? Anavex is absolutely paving a remarkable case in this proof-of-concept which merges multiple trials, and ground breaking precision medicine/genomic sequencing data (some ongoing). Someone with an agenda could say that the trial data, and while this is partially true, it doesn't share the whole story. Slide 15 shows the entire patient population. The other slides show SIGMAR-1 WT to placebo. SIGMAR-1 carriers are 80-90% of the population. These 'cherry picked' charts do in fact show more of the holistic story than some of these posters would try to have you believe.. they have an agenda and are trying to confuse retail investors.
The data in this presentation is overwhelmingly positive and warrants an investment in Anavex Life Sciences Corporation (AVXL). As always, please do your own research and make your own conclusions.
My favorite time of the week for AVXL is Friday 3 PM Central, Happy Hour. Can’t wait!!
Being here for longer than 5 days has shown me that moves like that has been common the past four years. YAWNNN!!
Well AVXL paper trades that are short always count regardless of timing since they aren’t real. Quite the grim strategy!! LOL
I tend to skip things in regards to Anavex when there is surprise news that I was not prepared for and not on my script for the day. I’ll have to do some countering research over the weekend and get a new script together for Monday! LOL
There are no problems LOL Not yet at least. The price action is simply to no data thus far. Nothing more, nothing less. Anavex does not have the data yet, so it’s quite far fetched that the rest of the market has sniffed out the data before it has even had a chance to be in Anavex’s hands.
If the proper documents are actually read and researched it clearly stated they cannot promote a drug that is not approved. But it’s much easier to make assumptions than do AVXL homework.
It’s not that hard to actually call IR and ask questions and receive the facts so no assumptions need to be made. Clint confirmed its for all AD patients upon request. Or is that just his assumption?!? LOL
Sorry for the repeat, I did not see that. Unfortunately, it could be said 100000 times and there would still be doubt in regards to AVXL and their operations.
I spoke to Clint. It is for ALL of Australia’s AD patients as long as they request it.
Can’t argue with you there! Everything here has taken a bit longer than expected by some of his own statements. I hope you’re wrong too. If they were bad, would t the company release that first then good news? So good news is the last thing said and on the mind?
Yes, I will try and post some notes later if someone doesn’t beat me to it!
I agree it’s a delay in which we will never know the reason but they only have one shot at this for Parkinson’s. They have to do it right. Again, he said it was expected mid year, never said it was coming mid year. He can’t be held responsible for the way expected is interpreted.
He said expected mid year. Never once said it was guaranteed. Huge difference. Should always expect a bit of a delay when it comes to science.
I must of missed that one! Again, as I said, after and pre market trading is meaningless but to scoff at huge gains and dismiss an opportunity to make money in an investment is not truthful. Then again, maybe I zagged instead of zigged.
I already have several silk purses thanks to AVXL over the years. I know how to properly check bio’s and have common sense. Understanding the psychology in the dealings of things is a strong suit of mine so I’m all set there on things to learn. Sorry, not a fan of sow’s ears, they don’t go with my wardrobe.
I still believe if there is positive PDD data we could easily be up that much. Unfortunately, the data as not been released yet and taking longer than expected (depending on expectations) like everything else. I was hopeful it’d be here today, so although disappointed I do not let that take away from the other developement we just learned. Two sides to every story but I can’t fathom they’d put that PR out then turn right around with bad data. If bad data, you put that out first then the good news, not the other way around.
He can’t hide from it, for better or worse it’ll be here soon.
I’m simply stating, the news yesterday was extremely positive and the furthest thing from the radar yet now it’s a negative because it’s not the news expected.
I must not be able to read screens very well, I swore I saw many prints in the $6’s. But I’m not versed in finding negatives in positive developments so I guess the $6’s weren’t a peak.
I’m not frustrated in the slightest. Just seems a bit disingenuous to scoff at surprise good news that was not expected when the price action is acting favorably on some of the most volume ever for outside market hours. Amazing talent to always find a negative in a positive.
Yea up 23% premarket on the news is absolute terrible price action yet again. I may have to Zig and Zag if that is extremely bearish.
You do realize After Hour action is meaningless for the most part. Great gain so far on huge volume but the real action will begin tomorrow during the day. Either way, not sure how up $1.60+ at one point is something to scoff at when every .10 cents down is the end of the world for AVXL.
What a move! Good luck with however you decide to play it going forward! Are you still following AVXL? If so, what are your thoughts on the upcoming Parkinson’s release the next few weeks?
Basic research and understanding of the corporate dealings can answer many questions. Just have to search to find.
Proper research will provide all the answers.