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Nice neg divergences in that chart.
The 30 min spx is now obdt. Perfect for a bigger move down.
$VIX is bottoming on the daily. Weekly is pointing down, but has been less reliable lately.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$VIX&p=D&yr=0&mn=9&dy=0&id=p59741680182
If the spx tracks similar to late Novemeber, then we will hit the mid bb on the daily and then grind our way up for the next 2 weeks. Then budget crisis part 2 begins.
$TNX 60 min says the bonds are consolidating today and rates will be higher tomorrow IMO. See a TNX daily chart at 12/14/12.
$TNX 60 min just hit the mid BB. Let's see if that holds or not.
Snoot, could be. When I believe the underlying trend is say up, then I am quick to pull the trigger on countertrend trades. I saw we were grossly overbought on Friday so I bought some SDS and RYDEX inverse SPX. Both of those are now closed. The 30 min and 60 min charts show more room for a downside move.
Personally, I need a turn down in the market and subsequent bond rally. I have to large client loans in process where the rate lock just expired. Got most of the bond move back this a.m. but need a little more.
Coming back to the mid BB would be ideal.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$TNX&p=120&yr=0&mn=1&dy=0&id=p13030968394&a=288271962
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$TNX&p=D&yr=0&mn=11&dy=0&id=p92343285409&a=288272662
Back in at 51.55.
Sold at 51.48.
Yep, I would be surprised if 3050 - 3060 did not hold. We will close that gap somewhere in the future IMO.
Sold the SDS at 51.66. Oversold on the 10/15 min charts. May look to reload when they touch the mid bb
Earnings are sound and unemployment has stabilized. In the end, it's a lot of fluff, but it should suck people in.
http://www.investopedia.com/articles/financial-theory/08/presidential-election-cycle.asp#axzz2HFkEOgrY
Well, lack of information or knowledge is frequently the cause of poor decisions.
At least give me credit for putting that indicator our there.
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=82977272
The weekly looks much the same. Another reason for the long bias. I did buy some SDS near the close at 51.16 amd 51.08 for a short term trade. I will flip back to SSO on the pull back.
The tax was always there, the govt' gave an ill advised reprieve. Intstead of saying people will pay more, the truth is that we paid less for 2 years and now it's going back to how it should have been the entire time.
Bought some SDS here.
Sold SSO at 63.44. I think we pullback next week to the daily mid BB
I agree snoot, I just don't think it will happen until Monday.
I am not being flip, but why question it? Technically, the spx chart looks just like it did in late July of this year. I would expect a pull back on the daily to the mid BB and then launch higher from there.
G, scaling into SSO position here. 30 min and 60 min oversold. 63.24 and 63.18.
Market should finish the day overbought...or more overbought. Good chance we could pull back to the mid BB on the daily still and then we should take off higher.
Funny, my Ameritrade software shows the 5,1 setting on the slow stochastic at 12.
If we open and hit the 60 min BB, I will be buying sso and qld at that point.
Sell off into the close would put the 30 min oversold in an uptrend. The 60 would be oversold or close to it.
Sold the SDS at 51.57. 5 min chart oversold. Taking while the taking is good.
Sold the second half of the SSO this A.M. Bought some SDS for a quick day trade and small profit. Long 401K money and all cash at the moment in trading account. Just bought some SDS at 51.23. Hourly 5,1 Slow Stochastic at 98.
Overall trend is up, but we need the 30 min chart to reset IMO. 1465-1470 is resistance so we will need to test, retreat and push through. Or at least that's my theory.
Sold the SDS. Chipotle tonight for the whole family.
Posted a chart to snoot. Sold remaining SSO and took out very small sds for grins. No point in spitting into the wind.
Let's see if we get a June/July rally. The 5,1 Stochastic was very helpful on the daily chart during that period.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=120&yr=0&mn=2&dy=0&id=p03915999656&a=287654489
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=D&yr=0&mn=7&dy=0&id=p48316890251&a=285331826
Kind of difficult to add longs here.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$VIX&p=120&yr=0&mn=2&dy=0&id=p50595328813
"I never use that word. The use it is a sophistry and a waste of my time"
As was my time reading it.
How's that crow taste? Congrats, you nailed the bottom...again.
Well the emotion thing is a tough one. I don't know that I will ever completely conquer it, but I think I control it by following some rules. 12/28 would have been a buy, but I was not going to front run the fiscal cliff shenanigans. I never thought we would be up 4+ percent in what amounted to 9 hours of trading. It's going to happen and you can't kick yourself over a manipulated event.
JLS, were you all in long on 12/28? I was not nor would that have been prudent in light of the fiscal cliff wrangling. The chart I posted shows it( a pullback) just recently happened and it only took a few days. See the attached chart for the June-October move.
I bought SSO and QLD in the premarket, sold all of that at 8:45 est and then bought back when the 5 min MFI(11) hit oversold. Bought more when the MFI(11) hit oversold on the 15 and then sold half in the AH. I am trying to build a position in my taxable accounts that has an average price lower than the 12/31 close.
401K funds started with 10% long on Monday at the close and another 20% today.
This is the chart I am using as a guide.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=W&yr=3&mn=0&dy=20&id=p42488719800&a=287654489
You might be a skoosh early. I am going to sell half of my SSO either at the close or in AH. We're outside the BB's now, but they are pointing up so that's rather meaningless.
Will look to buy those shares back tomorrow and probably go to all cash Friday?
JLS, too true.
1460 high this week. Pull back to the weekly BB...that would be ideal.
See the end of July.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=W&yr=0&mn=7&dy=0&id=p20393736859
True, but it may not happen for a month or two.
Gap filled at 62.79 on SSO. No other gaps to fill on the upside.
Trying to find a similar situation to day on the 60 min.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=60&yr=0&mn=3&dy=0&id=p19373012020
Praise the Lord!!
That sounds about right...possibly a little higher is this plays out.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=W&yr=5&mn=0&dy=0&id=p31913857321&a=287654489
So far so good...although I did not expect a 4% rise in the market in 4 hours.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=W&yr=5&mn=0&dy=0&id=p31913857321&a=287654489
Thoughts on that chart?
Where we've been and where we're going....
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=W&yr=5&mn=0&dy=0&id=p31913857321&a=287654489
Trading the one minute chart can be profitable on a day like today using the 5,1 stochastic. At some point, the 5 min will become relative and then the 15 later today or tomorrow.
On a serious note, we're going to open outside of the daily BB. We'll probably pull back intraday tomorrow and then continue higher. What a joke. 7 trading days to drop 3.5% and then 4 trading hours to rise 4%.
We're going to open near the high of the day IMO.
This set up is similar to June/July of this year on the weekly. Buy the dips...and there should be some good ones.