Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
I would not be that sure....
I think we will not get a real down until:
1) Option expiry is out of the way
2) Earnings season is over
3) Elections done
Then we can fall, and it does not matter that those who believe in seasonality are buying. In fact, that makes it sweet. Note that we have made several times the low of the autumn in early December and then rallied.
TICK is strong and TRIN falling although high.
Blue Line Jumps 11 Percent
http://www.theonion.com/content/node/28441
Blue Line Jumps 11 Percent
http://www.theonion.com/content/node/28441
Was this cancelled today?
"Down signal confirmed .Finally"
I went short futures at the close hoping for a few point pullback tomorrow. This is either so easy market to trade (bull market is here for ever) or very difficult. It should not be able to make headway but it is and it probably will. To me it does look like we are up against a bit of resistance on many indices.
I guess, if it were easy, no one would work and everyone would just trade. At some point, we will get a big break down, but there is no way to tell when. My bet is that we will not see any big break downs until after the elections and the end of earnings season. The first is pretty easy to understand, for the earnings you have to remember that many e.g. semis already warned and their earnings expectations will be easy to meet or exceed.
Semi earnings - a note of warning
Remember that some of them already warned so they have easy time of exceeding the beaten down expectations. I'm starting to think that there is no real down move until after the elections and the earnings season are over.
Fundamentals do not matter in the short term. They play out in the medium and long term. And November can be bad down month....
It's going to be a hard rally day or maybe not
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=ahoaWYrAuxaQ&refer=home
Economists Lower U.S. Growth Forecasts; Fed May Reduce Rates
No problem.... In fact, sorry to be such a pedant... It's just a boring market for someone who will not go long, but is refused to sit on one's hands because of the TRIN and TICK. The day of a bear will come, but it is not quite yet here.
I'm thinking about maybe another 20 points on cash NDX based on daily chart....
Correction
"James Defense review weekly London "
It is Jane's!
"where do you think NK got the technology and the hardware
to develope their nuke program , China , Russia?"
They got it from Pakistan, the main US ally in Muslim world in the war against terrorism. It really would pay off to be better informed before invading countries
Anyone see any resistance anywhere?
NYSE TRIN is high 1.32 so you should not trust the run up, but both NYSE and Nasdaq TICKS are very strong. NYSE particularly, spends a lot of time above 500.
I can't help feeling it is walking on air, but then again it could do it for a long time....
NYSE TRIN 1.33, TICK 730; Nasdaq TRIN 0.87 TICK 497
It is a flight to big caps, no question about it. How can they keep it up.... TRIN is just creeping up.
Must be some new thing that I am not aware of... Buys stocks because the economy is slowing and a recession at the door.
Gold is down a bit, too. Nothing as drastic as yesterday, though.
Did they just catch Bin Laden?
NYSE TICK hit over 1000, and staying above 700 at the moment. TRIN moving up now 1.06. Nasdaq TICK 280 or so and TRIN 0.94.
Anyway the ISM non-manufacturing survey came at 52.9 (below 50 is contraction), 56 expected and the average for the first half of the year was 59.6.
Factory orders were unchanged from August. July decline was revised down to -1%, also. Decline of -0.2% expected.
Excluding the volatile transportation equipment category, orders fell 0.7 percent, the biggest decrease since February.
Did they just catch Bin Laden?
NYSE TICK hit over 1000, and staying above 700 at the moment. TRIN moving up now 1.06. Nasdaq TICK 280 or so and TRIN 0.94.
Anyway the ISM non-manufacturing survey came at 52.9 (below 50 is contraction), 56 expected and the average for the first half of the year was 59.6.
Factory orders were unchanged from August. July decline was revised down to -1%, also. Decline of -0.2% expected.
Excluding the volatile transportation equipment category, orders fell 0.7 percent, the biggest decrease since February.
I guess the market at least initially does not like the numbers.
10 minutes and more econ stats out: factory orders and ISM non-manufacturing survey out at 10am.
I wonder if we are still in buy the economic weakness scenario or have we finally reached the point of realisation that bad statistics mean recession.
The factory orders could go either way as there is Xmas build up to take into account. Bad ISM non-manufacturing surveys is real bad for economy as that is such a large part of it.
I guess the markets could dream of more and faster rate cuts always....
M3 numbers do not support hundreds of billions ----
It is in tens of billions. There is simply no way in the long term to control the market. None.
How much do you think about all this "they want new high" is simply caused by "normal people" (quotes because, people who actively trade are in minority and far from the average citizen in any country) acting on what they (normal people) think they (investment banks, PPT, fund managers) want?
The money employed by each individual is small in comparison to the market, but there are much more of them than funds or investment banks.
How much of the end of the month/quarter ramp up is simply that people expect that to happen?
Why is market rallying? Just take a look at the boards. Many people have bullish expectations for whatever reasons and they are buying. Someone is buying and you don't need conspirary theories to see who is doing it....
Btw. looks like Asia and at least FTSE decided that cheap oil/gasoline is not good enough to keep rallying.
Btw. someone on Friday wrote that it was the end of the confession season and I object to that....
On Monday, I saw a headline that the preannouncement season has just started.
Madness of financial markets....
Today the spot market gas price in the UK fell to -0.04 pounds (-4 pence or almost -8 cents a therm). Unlike most of Europe, the UK energy companies tend to mostly deal with extremely short term contracts and natural gas market has been very tight (in part because they used to be self sufficient and the North See production is declining fast). A new pipeline opened from Norway and the spot market was flooded with supplies. No one needed it and people had tons for immediate delivery. So they had to pay for the gas grid to store it.
Now, if we just would have an unusually warm winter, so many companies would be hit big time. One of the low cost airlines (can't remember whethet it was easyjet or ryan air) is losing hugely because they hedged their fuel use at the level of 70 dollars untl March.
It's kind of like the gold producers but in reverse. They kept selling forward they production because gold price kept falling. The hedgers lost big time when the market turned. Now those companies that have hedged their fuel use for 3 to 9 months forwards are losing big losses.
Can I invite you to look at some charts again?
I posted this a few days ago. It is always good to sometimes do reality check witht the big picture.
I would just post the charts, but I cannot get to the source so if you can open the link in other window to see the charts and read the updated commentary in this post:
http://www.investorshub.com/boards/read_msg.asp?message_id=12589573
Unfortunately, some of the charts have not been updated yet for today....
NYSE composite:
- today was down day with increased volume
- NYMO (NYSE McClellan) broken down, today kind of flat.
- NYA50 ready to dive
- NYA200 diving
SPX:
- what is that last candle? Is that bull flag or about to notice there is just think air below?
- SPXA50 double top?
- SPXA200 down, down.....?
COMPX:
- almost touched 200-day SMA, ready to break through it? Notice how 200-day MA is basically flat.
- BCCOMPQ does it look like ready for the next step up or falling off the cliff?
- NAA50 top in place? Or bounce back from the previous low about 50 pointsw below the current levels?
- NAA200 down!
NDX:
- I should have been more aware of this, but 50-day MA is still way below 200-day MA!!!!!!! And the price is about to break below 200-day MA. So have we really been in a bull market?
- NDXA50 kind of flat. Is it going up or down next?
- NDXA200 falling.... It must be telling something...
SOX:
- Todays candle is a warning. Would love to have another one like that and we would have a break away gap which is one of the most powerful trends.
- And prey tell me how we managed that when yesterday we had news that semi sales made a record in August. Oh, markets look forward. And NDX or COMPX is going to rally without SOX/SMH....
BKX:
- Top? When this falls, it all falls. What expectations would possibly run this further up?
At tne end, a lot will depend if you believe in soft or hard landing. Note, there is no question about that there is a landing of some sort.
Also, note that fed can pump as much as they want, but they have absolutely no ability to control the market. They can bring some "softening" of the edges. But no one can keep the market up. No one.
Say the feds throw 20 billion USD buying futures..... Question for all: what percentage of daily turn over of the US equity market is that? Say they just use futures that give you a leverage of some 20 to 30 times your capital (depending on margin requirements on whichever futures you trade), what percentage of the daily futures turnover would 20 billion represent?
Answer: a drop in the pot. No question, that amount of intervention applied at a critical point makes a difference but there is no way that it can never stop whatever the market wants to do.
Just some small reminders: GBP forced out of ERM in small part by the actions of the hedge fund run by George Soros. (Btw. he is false credited for the event. It was someone working for him who found figured out the trade and he just approved pouring more money into it.)
Or Asian currency crisis. If that can happen in the currency markets which have daily turn over in trillions of dollars, there is no way that any entity can stop markets falling if that is to take place.
Btw. feds cannot pump the liquidity too much because it will either cause inflation to go up or push dollar down.
I think that it is time to start remembering the geopolitical situation for a change. It has not been used as an excuse for anything in the markets for a long time.
What better than to get worried about North Koria and their nuclrear test. I just heard on BBC that they do not make threats without following them through. Today's news about them saying that they will perform a test went mostly without market reaction. Although, realistically, them testing the bomb is completely meaningless act w.r.t. markets, would that not give a perfect reason to sell off?
PS: I went long DEC gold futures for a swing trade. I'll buy double the current holdings every $5 down if they fall further.
Took me 15 minutes to get a fill on Oct 39 puts (QQQ VM)
The spread was 0.15 - 0.25 and I bid 0.20 for measly 20 contracts. Right away after my order reached the exchange, others joined on to the bid....
Btw. did anyone notice that the lay off statistics came highest since January. Oil is going down on lack of demand. Anyone tempted to go long on Gold? The gold futures are down over 23 dollars for Nov and Dec delivery. I'm tempted but need to check the chart of the physical gold.
Lots of econ stats tomorrow.
Remember NYSE TRIN trumps Nasdaq one and it is 1.3 which is negative for the markets....
I expect further down later but can't follow well....
".so how can they condem him just because he is talking to young boys instead of young women..He is Gay..that is who gay men look for..young men...Makes me want to puke.."
I thought it was men, not teenagers or younger.
I thought this was the October Surprise
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aUnUTu_ZrhDk&refer=home
October Surprise in This Campaign Puts Republicans On the Spot
http://www.latimes.com/news/politics/la-na-foley3oct03,0,7011268.story?coll=la-home-headlines
Foley Saga No Shock to Some
The Florida Republican was known to have an interest in younger men, Capitol Hill workers say.
Pedantic, but ...
"I will cover LONG soon "
You cover a short i.e. buy the shares/options or whatever to cover or offset which you sold when you did not have them at time time of sale.
You sell a long.
Or you can close both short and long.
Manufacturing index slows more than expected, construction spending up 0.3 while -0.3 expected
TRINQ is very low at 0.68 and trending down, NYSE TRIN 1.07
TRINQ attempted to break to a new low. It is affected by RIMM which is up some 17 and traded already over 5 times daily average volume.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=an8ed4sDs4g0&refer=home
Chicago Purchasing Managers' Index Rises to 62.1 in September
By Shobhana Chandra
The National Association of Purchasing Management-Chicago said today its regional index rose to 62.1 this month from 57.1 in August. A reading greater than 50 signals growth.
...
Economists expected the index to fall to 55.7, based on the median estimate of 54 economists in a Bloomberg News survey. Forecasts ranged from 51 to 60.5.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=an8ed4sDs4g0&refer=home
Chicago Purchasing Managers' Index Rises to 62.1 in September
By Shobhana Chandra
The National Association of Purchasing Management-Chicago said today its regional index rose to 62.1 this month from 57.1 in August. A reading greater than 50 signals growth.
...
Economists expected the index to fall to 55.7, based on the median estimate of 54 economists in a Bloomberg News survey. Forecasts ranged from 51 to 60.5.
Looks dodgy...
There are regional real estate indices and I think futures on them, but I'm not 100% sure of the futures. Either they exist or are about to be introduced.
Better way if you really want to do it. But I have no idea of the liquidity.
OK could not quite sit on my hands
I bought 6 (all of SIX) Dec 40 QQQQ puts at .9 at close. It is still all in the air, although, today felt even weaker than yesterday.
Tomorrow, unfortunately, could be a blast off to give the bulls more confidence. It is clear to any one that today was weak day. Interesting that VIX and VXN actually fell!
CBOE volume data shows that:
4649 DJIA calls traded and
14123 DJIA puts traded
for P/C 3.037 which should predict a drop within the next 3 days....
It is very near....
The last few minutes saw the futures moving up a bit, large buys of futures taking place and TICK moving up and TRIN moving up.
The futures didn't move up as much as we've seen before when you take into account the size of buys (50 to 100 size buys). There is supply available....
NYSE TRIN 1.05. Nasdaq still only 0.79. TICKs positive.
I'm afraid this could mean mildy positve close and blow off top tomorrow/Monday? Or it could collapse any moment now.
So far, though, the few times the ticks have fallen negative, it lasted only for a few seconds since I've been following that.
NYSE TICK over 400. No way we go down until it goes negative and stays there.
Actually that rule of S3 (or something like that, I might be wrong about the letter)
When you get a disparity of calls and puts (their ratio one way or other is >3), the market will move with the higher volume instead of it being contrarian indicator.
"Last chance for confession is tomorrow - just throwing it out there :)"
What does that mean? There is no cut off date for warnings. It all depends on when do you report. You are supposed to inform the exchange/people of material facts and those companies whose quarter ends towards the end of the reporting season have lots of time to pile in warnings later on.
The bull flag broke up and run all of 2 points
Then it fell slowly back to the top of the flag. Went into the flag by a small amount. Saw a lot of futures going at bid at that point. I think there is a lot of people ready to sell at the first attempt. And TICK moved up, we retraced to the upper edge of the flag. They couldn't even take it anywhere near the mid point of the flag.
All of that is nicely within the uptrend channel. I'm glad that I'm out but I really want to short it... I will not, though... NYSE TRIN is 0.92, Nasdaq TRIN 0.78. NYSE TICK 487, Nasdaq 136.
RIMM reports after close and it is in NDX. I can't remember how it has done recently but I do recall it had a habit of falling after results at one point. I probably isn't in reality very important but it is one of those well known names that people can rally around.
Oh TICKs fallen now, Nasdaq -73, NYSE -178. TICKS NYSE .92, Ndaq .97. Is this it?
Just can't trust it.... It looked just like this yesterday and then all the sudden it broke the downtrend channel and went up.
NQ uptrend channel about to be violated if it does not recover soon. See a bit green right now....
It might plunge since I'm out
But TRINs are below 1 and TICK steadily above 0. It does look like make a break moment.
There is a bull flag on DEC NQ chart. And while I wrote this, Ndaq TICK went to over 700 and NYSE TICK 900.
We are VERY close to the top. They get clearly less and less out of the high TICK readings. But if they have enough liquidity, nothing will keep it down.
TRINs still too low for sustained down
Do they need higher close or is intraday enough It does look weak. Kind of wish that I didn't bail out, but I would of lost a lot ££££ on FTSE. Going short it tomorrow. US... Hmm... Must see....
I'll be back.....
Save a bit in FTSE already. GDP came lower than expected and US corporate profits are expected to decline 27% in 2007.
Let's see if they can spin this. I might re-enter today still....
Good luck bears, it's free to go down now as I capitulated....
I hated the reaction in futures just after close and overnight Japan. No question, we are VERY near the top, but the problem is that it can take until next week Tuesday and fair number of index points although I would expect it to stall earlier.
The reason for me closing futures shorts in part is the markets complete denial of the negative repors and some of the data coming out today.
Corporate profits - this should be negative but what are the expectations?
GDP final - this should be non-event, but imagine if it gets revised up by 0.01% Although, that is past history, it probably would add some fuel to the party
Jobless claims - these have been largely ignore in the recent weeks and you can spin the number whichever way you want whether they are good or bad:
bad: no inflationary pressure or weakening economy
good: inflationary pressure building up in thight labour markets or job markets help to over come slow down
Help wanted index - similar
Farm payroll - this MIGHT bring the inflation bear to front
Money supply - hey, who cares it's just green pieces of paper or more importantly bits in various bank's computers
I was somewhat hopeful about the TRINs at the close, I had NYSE TRIN closing at 1.20, Nasdaq significantly higher.
The DOW record seems to be magnet. We probably get a blow off top, but it could take us quite a bit higher.
When used intraday trading, TRIN above 1.20 is bearish.
0.8 to 1.20 is neutral. Below 0.8 bullish. Although, 1 is the dividing line between whether the declining or advancing volume is higher, it is not sufficient to put pressure for the market either way.
As often done on this board, the change on TRIN can be used as an early warning.