T/A ETF AND INDEX

[shortterm]

Can I invite you to look at some charts again?

I posted this a few days ago. It is always good to sometimes do reality check witht the big picture.

I would just post the charts, but I cannot get to the source so if you can open the link in other window to see the charts and read the updated commentary in this post:

http://www.investorshub.com/boards/read_msg.asp?message_id=12589573

Unfortunately, some of the charts have not been updated yet for today....

NYSE composite:

- today was down day with increased volume
- NYMO (NYSE McClellan) broken down, today kind of flat.
- NYA50 ready to dive
- NYA200 diving


SPX:

- what is that last candle? Is that bull flag or about to notice there is just think air below?
- SPXA50 double top?
- SPXA200 down, down.....?



COMPX:
- almost touched 200-day SMA, ready to break through it? Notice how 200-day MA is basically flat.
- BCCOMPQ does it look like ready for the next step up or falling off the cliff?
- NAA50 top in place? Or bounce back from the previous low about 50 pointsw below the current levels?
- NAA200 down!


NDX:

- I should have been more aware of this, but 50-day MA is still way below 200-day MA!!!!!!! And the price is about to break below 200-day MA. So have we really been in a bull market?
- NDXA50 kind of flat. Is it going up or down next?
- NDXA200 falling.... It must be telling something...


SOX:

- Todays candle is a warning. Would love to have another one like that and we would have a break away gap which is one of the most powerful trends.
- And prey tell me how we managed that when yesterday we had news that semi sales made a record in August. Oh, markets look forward. And NDX or COMPX is going to rally without SOX/SMH....


BKX:

- Top? When this falls, it all falls. What expectations would possibly run this further up?


At tne end, a lot will depend if you believe in soft or hard landing. Note, there is no question about that there is a landing of some sort.

Also, note that fed can pump as much as they want, but they have absolutely no ability to control the market. They can bring some "softening" of the edges. But no one can keep the market up. No one.

Say the feds throw 20 billion USD buying futures..... Question for all: what percentage of daily turn over of the US equity market is that? Say they just use futures that give you a leverage of some 20 to 30 times your capital (depending on margin requirements on whichever futures you trade), what percentage of the daily futures turnover would 20 billion represent?

Answer: a drop in the pot. No question, that amount of intervention applied at a critical point makes a difference but there is no way that it can never stop whatever the market wants to do.

Just some small reminders: GBP forced out of ERM in small part by the actions of the hedge fund run by George Soros. (Btw. he is false credited for the event. It was someone working for him who found figured out the trade and he just approved pouring more money into it.)

Or Asian currency crisis. If that can happen in the currency markets which have daily turn over in trillions of dollars, there is no way that any entity can stop markets falling if that is to take place.

Btw. feds cannot pump the liquidity too much because it will either cause inflation to go up or push dollar down.

I think that it is time to start remembering the geopolitical situation for a change. It has not been used as an excuse for anything in the markets for a long time.

What better than to get worried about North Koria and their nuclrear test. I just heard on BBC that they do not make threats without following them through. Today's news about them saying that they will perform a test went mostly without market reaction. Although, realistically, them testing the bomb is completely meaningless act w.r.t. markets, would that not give a perfect reason to sell off?

PS: I went long DEC gold futures for a swing trade. I'll buy double the current holdings every $5 down if they fall further.