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If I post it, will it get deleted? Here ya go:
Bai was a recent acquisition that sold for $1.7B, and based on article below had revenue of $231M. So a 7.4 multiplier.
http://www.foodbusinessnews.net/articles/news_home/Business_News/2016/12/Was_Bai_a_good_buy.aspx?ID=%7B111B707C-34E4-4DB5-94C0-34C385C0ADB9%7D&cck=1
When VitaCoco sold 25% to Reignwood (Red Bull China) for $665M, it was only doing $250M worldwide. So that was a 10.6 multiplier.
Glaceau (which is what was sold, not just Vitamin Water) had revenues of $600M and was sold for $4.8B.
Plenty of recent examples for 6+ multiplier sales.
We've been through this before where I listed plenty of examples of far higher multipliers. Shall I do it again?
Didn't B Riley project a little more than $8M for Q3? That would be far and away the 2nd best number in company history, albeit down from a massive Q2 number.
"NBEV stock closed at $3.86 that day (5/01/2017) and then proceeded to march all the way up to $7.20 on 6/06/2017 "
And now it is at $3.47 3.5 months later. I'd prefer Celsius do a gradual climb instead of the peaks and valleys. But, I'm a long haul kind of guy. If you want to play the market daily, and short/long particular stocks, maybe NBEV is a better choice.
Stock is up 21% since August 8th, which is hardly pathetic. I'm surprised B Riley didn't move the needle, but I'd imagine many investors would like some stability at CEO.
Have you taken a position on CELH? It useful to understand the context of your analysis.
So what is your take here? B Riley has no influence? "Pathetic" seems pretty harsh for a stock that continues to perform.
I'm curious, do you have a financial position on CELH?
So where do you see this stock headed the remainder of the year? It posted revenue close to $3M more than you expected, while being profitable (when you predicted $3M in losses).
The Q2 numbers did not include any China/HK revenue, so there is potential upside there since John Fieldly mentioned China launching in back half of the year. Once a CEO is officially named, that should provide additional stability and confidence to investors.
It is completely legitimate to be skeptical if Celsius can continue to produce strong revenue numbers. B Riley anticipates $8.2M in Q3. Celsius needs to match/exceed that number. Anything below, will deservedly bring out the skeptics.
Riddle me this, is Lily Li still in control of RMHB?
Kevin Harrington has founded 20 companies that grew to over $100M per year (each). He has sold over $6B on television. His book on entrepreneurship is used at MIT's business school.
Will he be the savior at RMHB? I have no idea, but why besmirch the abilities of a successful businessman?
You know exactly where I got $40M. But if you prefer past 2 quarters, and a $32M run rate, then Celsius is still not overvalued. As I demonstrated in previous post, 6 times multiplier is common for beverages.
Bai was a recent acquisition that sold for $1.7B, and based on article below had revenue of $231M. So a 7.4 multiplier.
http://www.foodbusinessnews.net/articles/news_home/Business_News/2016/12/Was_Bai_a_good_buy.aspx?ID=%7B111B707C-34E4-4DB5-94C0-34C385C0ADB9%7D&cck=1
When VitaCoco sold 25% to Reignwood (Red Bull China) for $665M, it was only doing $250M worldwide. So that was a 10.6 multiplier.
Glaceau (which is what was sold, not just Vitamin Water) had revenues of $600M and was sold for $4.8B.
Plenty of recent examples for 6+ multiplier sales.
Just responding to your "carry over" theory, which doesn't really make sense in this scenario.
Why do you believe Celsius is overvalued? Historically, the average valuation put on a beverage company when it is sold is 6 x's revenue. Valuations have been as high as 10 x's revenue. Vitamin Water sold for 8 x's revenue.
Considering Celsius is now at a $40M run rate, how are you considering them overvalued?
Let's assume that it was because of month to month orders that filtered into Q2. Even if it was $2M worth of orders (that's a number that is much too high), that would mean Q1 was a record quarter, followed by another record quarter in Q2.
In the above mentioned scenario, Celsius is $8M+ in both quarters, which would have been more than acceptable to everyone that posts on this board.
Or you have a $10M quarter showing a massive spike in sales. Both of these seem like positive scenarios.
I thought $7.5M was the number that would gain your interest? Did that change?
Predictions....
Instead of Monday morning QB'ing, lets get some predictions out there. What will Celsius Q2 revenue numbers be:
a)Under $7M
b)$7-$7.5M
c)$7.5M-8.5M
d)Jackpot! ($8.5+)
"They're going to need to do a lot better to justify that $80 million market cap."
Stay hot....
The consensus seems to be the Q2 numbers will underwhelm and/or remain flat. Just to play devil's advocate, what would people here consider a break out or huge number? $8M? 9M?
"If you read our blog, you will see that we actually started to become concerned about valuation levels in late April and early May (5/01/2017 blog).
This was not the first time that we raised red flags about CELH's valuation. After the 2015 financing deal was announced and the stock went from $1.79 to $3.55 we began to grow increasingly concerned about valuation at that point in time also.
The deciding factor that clinched it for us, this time around, was the Q1 financial report. Revenues have been stagnant over the past four quarters, and CELH has lost its sequential momentum from a revenue growth standpoint.
One thing that we learned about investing in Micro-caps is that you don't ignore what is right in front of your face by making excuses and engaging in unrealistic confirmation biases (11/01/2016 blog).
Also, please refrain from making assumptions as to when we sold our CELH position. To do so would result in pure speculation on your part.
As we have said previously, we won't make a decision one way or another regarding reinstating a position in CELH until after the release of Q2 results. "
Couple of points I'd like to address. First, I am not making assumptions about when you sold your stock, you posted it here:
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4083216-decided-sell-remainder-position-celsius-holdings-inc
Secondly, your analysis of Celsius continues to revolve around the flat revenue numbers over the past 4-5 quarters. That is a legitimate issue. My question was if you value CELH as a stock in the $2-3 range, why did you hold it until mid June? Why not right after Q1 earnings came out? Instead you rode the stock all the way to the peak, which was very smart of you, but counters all of the criticisms you now make. If you felt it was a $2-3 stock, why didn't you sell it when Q1 numbers were posted on May 11th and the stock was at $3.96?
It's just confusing that much of your argument revolves around the flat quarters, yet you held onto the stock after Q1 was posted, even when you considered it WAY over valued. The stock now is right where it was May 12th, and you held on for a rise of nearly $1. Now it is a $2-3 stock without any additional information being released?
Just trying to understand why you held onto a stock for 5 weeks post Q1 numbers (per the link above) when you considering it heavily inflated?
Seems like you have gone "All In" regarding Celsius and it's near term financial future. Why did you wait until it reach $4.40 (or whenever you sold) to sell? If the company should be a $2 stock, why didn't you sell at $3 or $3.50?
All of the data you discuss in evaluating this stock, in particular the fact revenues have plateau'd are nothing new. This was the case 2 months ago, yet you hadn't unloaded your stock. What changed 4 weeks ago that wasn't news available to you 2-3 months ago?
No offense, but it feels like you WANT the stock to go back down so you can buy back in, or am I wrong?
Will you buy back in at that price? If not, how low would stock have to go for you to make investment?
"We are not expecting very good comps to last year's $6.2 million number."
Curious, what are you basing this on? Anything other than previous revenue numbers?
Care to make a prediction on Q2 revenue? Flat? Down? Up? Significantly up?
Why do you say China is a lost cause? I remember reading somewhere that it took Monster three years to launch in China, and they only rolled out in a few cities.