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I do not have any specific knowledge about the investigation, what sort of evidence they have, what rules and statutes may have been broken, etc.
However, what I can tell you---based on prosecuting fraud cases---is that the hardest part is determining who is behind the keyboard. Once I have a target, finding the evidence is easy. Maybe time-consuming, maybe voluminous, maybe requiring some clever searching. But it is extremely difficult to hide things in a digital world. There is always evidence.
If money changed hands, there will be traces of it. If there were communications between the parties, there are invariably records of them. Coordination between parties will be clear even if it was not explicitly stated.
DoJ will gather bank records, emails, phone records, texts, brokerage and trading records, etc. They will get informants, maybe tap phones and email/messaging accounts, or even surveil people. Then they set dozens of agents to reading through everything, summarizing, and linking it all together. That is why these investigations can take years.
If DoJ can find evidence that short sellers were working with people who produce research; that their research caused stocks to drop; that the shorts were shorting those stocks; and that anything in those reports was false or misleading, then the shorts and researchers are going to be in trouble. They are going to work on a deal to avoid a trial because no one wants to go through a trial on this sort of thing.
RE: Smokey21
Very nice write-up. In terms of suggestions, it may be worth starting the paper with an explanation about what cancer is and how the body reacts (or doesn't react) to it first, as many people really don't understand the basics of cells reproducing out-of-control and how the immune system fights back. Then discuss the different methods of combating cancer, from radiation to CAR-T, to checkpoint inhibitors, to DC Vaccines.
That helps to differentiate the different methods and explains how DC-Vax can be so successful with such limited side-effects. It might be worth concluding with highlighting the evidence of success, from the 2018 results, to Sawston production, to confirmation of changed endpoints, to Flaskworks, etc.
Just a thought or two, but a great write-up nonetheless!
Funny, I sold half my TSLA stock at just under $1200 (purchased at just under $60), and am thinking of buying another half-million shares of NWBO.
Securing financing in one shot makes no sense to me. They do not want to borrow any more money than they need for the immediate future because they have to pay 10%+ in interest on what they borrow. Sitting on money for a year before they need it is just throwing money they don't have down the drain. Obviously taking out monthly loans is a bit unwise and cumbersome, which is why they seem to opt for ~6 months of financing at a time.
And no, I don't think they know how long this will take, because the timeline is dependent on others. They can (and have) provided estimates based on others' projections (like Sawston certification). However, their ability to affect the actual certification date or publication date is limited to how quickly they respond to any issues found during inspection or peer review although the actual remediation of any issue is also likely to be almost wholly out of their control.
I do not have an informed opinion about warrant/option expiration because I don't know enough about the terms of all of the options and warrants, what if any promises were made regarding them, and what each set was designed to do. It seems that there are a number of options and warrants given at different times for different reasons. Some to company employees/management, some to investors, and some to financiers. None were given to me, so I don't have much of an opinion about them.
The sense I get is that they were largely given as a reward/incentive to people who have supported the company and helped keep them solvent. Extensions of the expiration dates in an attempt to stay true to supporting those people is something I appreciate. Absent some evidence to the contrary, I don't plan to lose any sleep over it.
Beautifully said, iwasadiver. Ignore all the 'what if' questions and all of the speculation about when things will happen. 'The Universe will unfold as it should.'
I read that as combo trials with Direct but that might just be me.
RE: DavidW2
I wish I knew. I can guess but my guesses are not based on a lot of knowledge in the area of biotech, clinical trials, or regulatory agencies. A little over a year ago I surmised that they were going to wait on a Journal publication (https://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=159422319). Maybe I was prescient then, or lucky, or completely full of . . . something. ONly time will tell.
There are lots of reasons to delay and to be silent and some are good while others are bad. Looking at the other indicators, it looks very much to me that it is at least good and maybe much more than that. But we can only guess because if we really knew, then we would not be selling at < $1. So we wait. Patiently.
RE: DavidW2
RE: Mionaer1
RE: HappyLibrarian
I don't discount a lack of competence in this field as a contributor to missed goals and time frames.
I just don't see any way to put a date on something so out of your control, especially when so much has changed in the last year or two between the pandemic, redefinition of GBM, changing of the end points, new administration, etc.
Rehashing a story: My father, in the 70s and 80s, was involved with a group that managed mainframe storage for one of the largest companies in the world. Every year in December they would forecast and purchase mainframe storage (mainly magnetic tapes) for the following year. Every year they would run out of storage by February. This was not some shoe-string bio-tech full of neophytes, this was a company with near-unlimited resources and professionals with lots of experience missing their mark by an order of magnitude every year. Sure, people will use up all available space and computing is exponential rather than linear, but this is professionals with some control over the outcome.
Perhaps our life experiences are just different but in my experience, lots of people are never happy. They keep pushing, always wanting more details. Provide an outline of the steps and they want estimates and the next day a dozen people on here are debating how long each step takes and projecting timelines and goals with nothing to base them on. Give an estimate of the time for each step and they want clearer, exact timelines and an update about the progress of each step. Provide exact dates and they are furious when you miss them and tell you you are a fraud and a liar for misleading them or incompetent and stupid and your excuses are all made up. Pad the results and they mock you for taking 3 months to do something simple that should only take a week.
I can pretty well guarantee that if they had told people four years ago that it would take four more years to see TLD, that lots of people would NOT have been happy. And that would have been seriously padding their expected timeframes.
RE: JerryCampbell
I certainly don't disagree with you. I am pretty sure that I have said before that if I were picking a management team for NWBO, I would not have selected the current one. As you say, probably a lot of their missed dates (or the amount by which they were missed) are the result of or exacerbated by a pure lack of experience. Similarly, Linda Powers is not an engaging public speaker. It would be nice to have someone who can really own an audience out there but maybe that is not in the budget or people want to hear from the CEO, I don't know. The list goes on.
That said, management's passion and commitment mean a lot to me because their goals are more akin to my own and they appear to be willing and able to achieve their vision for the company, even if it takes longer than many might like. I am not just here to make enough to retire comfortably, I want to be part of a significant event in human history. Something that has the potential to change people's lives for the better.
I don't doubt that with some sort of partnership or buyout we could probably be in Approval Land by now and maybe hit a price-per-share goal of many here. But I do not trust a large pharmaceutical company not to bury DC Vax or otherwise compromise its true potential for purely financial reasons. And even if it takes longer, I feel that going-it-alone provides both a better eventual share price as well as more control over the outcome. I like to think the SAP, consultants, and physicians/clinicians NWBO works with can provide enough direction when necessary to keep them on the right track.
Ultimately, with every day passed the chance for success rises, the opportunity to crush NWBO fades, and I wait patiently for actual news.
RE: HappyLibrarian
I am confused. I have been making all of my stock decisions based on Twitter posts, are you suggesting that Twitter is not a reliable source of actual news?
Everything is used against them. Silence, statements, accomplishments, milestones, everything. Every time good news comes out, the share price rises a bit and then is beaten back down. People with lots of money and resources sell into the enthusiasm generated by the good news and keep selling and selling until the stock goes negative and then they buy it all back at a discount. Short sellers walk away with a bunch of cash fleeced from the suckers who thought that good news meant an increase in share price. It has happened over and over and over.
Most people should NOT be buying into Bio-tech penny stocks under any circumstances. It requires a huge amount of knowledge and patience and the very vast majority of investors have neither. I certainly shouldn't have bought into NWBO 4+ years ago but my investment was a pretty small percentage of my portfolio at the time. Over the years I have gained a great deal more knowledge, enough that I have significantly increased my stake and feel that I have a decent idea about the stock, the company, the industry, and the market. Maybe still not enough to have invested as much as I have but there you have it.
However, if all you know about NWBO is the content of some press releases (even if they were frequent and factual), an updated corporate website, tweets from investors like Bigger, and the share price, then you are going to be in for a huge disappointment. After a few months or a year or two of no gains or even losses, you'll dump and move on. There are plenty of other places to make quick money.
There are some things the company can't say because of regulations or agreements with publishers to name a couple of examples. Lots of other things they shouldn't say because NWBO is not in control of how long most things take. They have very limited control over the accreditation of Sawston, the publication of a journal article, anything relating to Regulators, or really anything not personally handled by their staff of 16. Therefore their predictions about the timing of future events are pulled fully from a hat. Which means that when they are shown to be wildly inaccurate, everyone gets to scream that they are liars and frauds.
And yeah, hearing nothing gets old if you see this as some generic stock in some random industry. But in this company and this industry, you have to be prepared to just sit back and watch for months at a time. Pay attention to what is actually going on in the background in order to understand how they are preparing everything for launch but don't expect anything by some made-up deadline.
People often talk about breadcrumbs here and really, you need to put some of this together for yourself. Reclassification of GBM is significant. Changing the endpoints in order to fix unexpected issues with the trial design is huge. Ramping up production at Sawston is necessary and the purchase and integration of Flaskworks promises increasing production by orders of magnitude over what is available today. Hiring uplisting consultants is significant. Increased hiring at Sawston and elsewhere is encouraging. Non-dilutive financing, to the extent possible. The interim results from 2018 and alphapuppy's analysis of same indicate that NWBO won't fail because the product does not work. New patents and trials at UCLA are things of note. All of this points to a company that is ready to change the world and how we diagnose and treat cancer and maybe other diseases. You do not rush things like that and take unnecessary chances. Most investors are not capable of grasping all of this and the very real danger posed by the forces at work against any change.
There has been no significance to suspensions and extensions on warrants over the last 2-3 years. I would be very wary of assigning much significance to them now. Or honestly, to what people say that David Innis or others have said. Too many levels of hearsay.
If you are just looking for short-term gains, NWBO is NOT the stock for you. This stock isn't at <$1 because of a failure to tweet, it is at <$1 because people with a LOT of money want to make a lot more money by fleecing the sorts of people who buy and sell stocks based on tweets.
CherryTree1:
Are you actually suggesting that someone would post that NWBO is going to $0.14 multiple times a day for more than a year? Or that Linda Powers is the worst CEO in history constantly or that . . . oh, right.
Study of 250,000 unvaccinated adults and children in low- middle- and high-income countries:
https://www.upi.com/Health_News/2021/10/14/covid19-recovery-long-term-symptoms/7281634244051/
https://www.news-medical.net/news/20211013/More-than-half-of-COVID-19-survivors-experience-long-COVID-researchers-say.aspx
https://www.consumeraffairs.com/news/long-covid-impacts-more-than-half-of-all-virus-survivors-study-finds-101421.html
Study of 1733 hospitalized patients in Wuhan:
https://www.nytimes.com/2021/01/08/health/Covid-survivors-longterm.html
https://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-perspective/2021/08/study-half-covid-19-survivors-have-least-1-symptom-year-later
Review of 18,251 publications:
https://www.fox29.com/news/study-80-of-covid-19-patients-suffer-1-or-more-long-term-effects
Stop drinking the Kool Aid.
As noted, the number of vaccinated people dying as a result of the vaccine is insignificant. While unvaccinated people have a 0.2% chance of dying of COVID (not of dying if they get COVID but of getting COVID and dying). There are few things most people will do in their lifetime that carry a risk of dying at 1:500 and to think that they would continue to live with such a risk rather than get a vaccine is stunning.
On top of that, half of those who get COVID suffer from longterm effects lasting 6 months or more (and in some cases they could be permanent), including neurological, respiratory, and vascular harm.
RE: Bob_LobLaw
Thanks Doc,
And I appreciate the enthusiasm, I just get tired of people on both sides blowing everything out of proportion. Trying to make something out of SNO when all indicators are that NWBO is not presenting anything there. The newest 'skeptic' talking point: why doesn't NWBO hold quarterly calls? As if conference calls would speed the process, which is ultimately the ONLY thing that matters.
The entire narrative that NWBO wants TLD release to be a surprise just baffles me. NWBO wants the whole world to take notice of that announcement. They are going to want a standing-room only crowd at whatever conference at which they present. They aren't going to try to fly under the radar in the hope that no one notices that they are presenting about a @!($*^% cure for cancer.
Maybe next week we can get back to deep discussions about filling staffing positions or something.
And you are welcome to stop posting meritless drivel.
Like I said, you are free to get your information wherever you want and congratulations on being up 120% Don't let it go to your head, you can lose it twice as fast.
And I am glad you agree with me, even if you don't actually seem to know what I am saying. One person being alive 7 years after treatment is a data point. You are suggesting that it proves efficacy, when in fact a placebo patient can live 7 years. With 331 patients in the trial and a number getting DC-Vax via compassionate use, there are bound to be some 7 year survivors. But a single case does not in-and-of-itself prove anything. That is why we wait for TLD, so we see how the participants as a whole did compared to comparable historical studies. Probably not as many of those who died early are tweeting about not making it.
But again, this has zero to do with Bigger's tweets, which you proclaim as having some significance when they have none. He is not providing some insider knowledge or personal story, he is just hyping a stock he owns a lot of.
Plan?
No idea who KP or her father are, however, I didn't say tweets are meaningless, I said they are not reliable news.
Personal anecdotes are great but you should rely on something a bit more substantial when making investment decisions. Because there will always be someone who does well or does poorly. Anyone can cherry-pick examples that prove any point. And Bigger's tweets are nothing more than lame hype lacking any actual substance. You want to rely on them, go ahead but absent some basis for giving them more credence, I'd appreciate you leaving them on Twitter with the rest of the ramblings.
I can imagine how someone who thinks Twitter or Facebook are a source of news might think so.
Look through all of his tweets since he invested a few years back. They do not correspond with actual news arriving, share price increases, or anything material to our investment. Nonetheless, someone always posts this drivel as if it is a sign of the second coming or something. He is just an investor.
Tweets /= news.
His previous tweets have shown a marked absence of prescience.
Snort.
Sorry, but there really isn't anything in the 10-Q to suggest that TLD/Publication are imminent. They clearly still believe that Sawston certification is imminent by end-of-year, as they explicitly state that. There is nothing about TLD/publication, however.
People really need to stop making guesses on timing based on when warrants expire, how long they are extended, or when there are extensions on the suspension of various warrants. These are meaningless as has been shown over the last several years. After Bigger entered the scene a few years back there was a lot of talk about closing the trial and TLD happening that next summer because warrants were suspended until then and blah blah blah. It never happened.
The company has extended the warrant dates repeatedly, often in short increments. A lot of warrants just expired two weeks ago and nothing. Do NOT hang your hat on warrant status as an indicator of anything.
They are steps in a process.
First you close the trial (data lock).
Then you release the results (top line data).
Then you seek approval from the regulators.
The data released in TLD and other factors are considered by the regulators in determining whether to approve a product and for what indications. That process takes 6+ months to complete.
When investors see TLD, they will have a much better idea about the chances (and scope) of potential approval. If results are good, the stock will be far more difficult to hold to its current share price. Media coverage and a peer-reviewed article in a major medical journal can get the word out to the world at large and entice new investors.
Regulatory approval follows release of top-line data by 6+ months. However, the TLD should make clear how well DC-Vax performs and how safely.
"The supreme art of war is to subdue the enemy without fighting."
- Sun Tzu
We don't need to imagine it, we've seen it. The stock tanks down below $0.20. NWBO is a company of very limited resources fighting to survive. It should be clear by now that they have attracted enough support to stay the course and get to the finish line.
However, any time they try to be candid about where they feel they are or where they believe they are going, they get slammed by extremely well funded opponents who can pick apart everything they say and do with disingenuous and factually-stunted arguments and accusations. Everyone reading this board should by now be well acquainted with what that looks like as we see it here daily.
NWBO can't afford to fight off the constant media bashing, faux-investor outrage, and legal threats should they say the wrong thing or imply the wrong message. This is especially true when they are forced to shift their course due to a changing medical and regulatory environment. Not to mention that they could have legal or regulatory constraints to providing certain information.
For the most part, the mainstream media and population as a whole have no idea that NWBO exists. Using up all of their PR chits now to fight off pointless drivel when the attacks are not going to be enough to stop NWBO from succeeding would be a waste. Generating far more opposition by giving their opponents more fuel would be calamitous. Better to save their ammo for when they need it to get the word out about TLD and approval.
OMG!! You are right! The trial has obviously failed, sell everyone! Sell SELL, SEEELELLELLELLEDLDLFASDGFELTQLFD!!!
Not at all my area, but isn't alphapuppy's analysis of 2018 blinded data as opposed to the 2021 (~3.5 years later and not including control arm) unblinded data to be used by regulators?
Again, not my area but I think that makes a difference.
MI Dendream:
I absolutely get, and appreciate, your post. :) I know it can make you wonder if some sort of Stockholm Syndrome has taken hold of us sometimes. Every few months I need to look back and make sure I am still here for the right reasons and try to play out everything that is happening and make sure it still fits together.
Sorry about the late reply but I can't really justify hanging around all day on iHub!
Take care,
Ike
PHYInvestor,
I wish I had the answers. :)
I have no idea what is going on or why. I do know that Linda Powers has more to gain (financially and otherwise) than anyone on the planet when NWBO succeeds. This will be worth $billions to her. Which is why I find those ridiculous allegations that she is riding the $150K salary train to prison or going to leverage NWBO's failure into a multi-million dollar Advent manufacturing empire to be so farcical.
Management has a great deal more information about what is going on than do I and it is in their interests to get NWBO approved. The verifiable information that has come out about patents, manufacturing, results, and regulatory/definitional changes are sufficient to make me feel that they are actively pursuing approval as quickly as they can without compromising their chances of success.
They have already done a number of things that would not have occurred to me but in hindsight were obviously necessary. So I am willing to trust that they know what they are doing and are doing it.
I recall questions in the past about being disappointed if at some future date no TLD or the like. I am pretty sure that I answered then as I would answer now that as long as I feel that they are actively moving in the right direction, I am willing to wait. If I ever feel that is no longer the case, I will dump it and move on.
re: flipper44
You are free to make any assumptions or read whatever you like into their actions or inactions. I just find it difficult to generate too much enthusiasm based on their failure to dissuade people from hyping something because of a single instance of them having dissuaded people in the past. It is not like their explicit statements have been wildly prescient. So I am simply warning people where this all leads.
I have watched people on this board (and elsewhere in life) do a 180 after disappointment that the reality they created conflicted with the one we are all stuck in. I can't really search this site, so it is more effort for me than I feel it is worth to compile the dozens of examples of 'signs' that people here have read into NWBO's words, actions, and inactions over the last five-ish years I've been here, all of which have turned out to be nothing.
I think, and I believe that NWBO management thinks, it would be awesomtastic if the planets aligned and they could PR a series of victories, get a paper published, release TLD, and then have an in-depth session at a major conference, all in short order. I am not counting on that happening and I hope that management is not either. I am sure they have their Perfect Plan and that they will try to get as many of the pieces as they can reasonably swing.
I think their goal is to get sufficient information out there via TLD, PRs, publication, and conferences to get people talking, and buying their stock in enough time to get uplisted prior to approval. They don't all have to exactly coincide. Just be close enough so that they can be prepared for the inevitable attacks, using peer-reviewed article(s), etc. to combat the misinformation. Get the price high enough that they can uplist to a major exchange prior to approval. Then turn their attention to Direct and combination trials. Of course, that is simply my baseless speculation.